《公司的秘密7》年度研报合集 "穿越热点，看到秘密" 预售已开启 2026年1月25日之后开始发货 01 所有人都在追的热点公司， 在《第一财经》杂志内部，研报长期被视为一种"静态报道"。 所谓静态，不追逐当下热度，不围观股价起伏；看长线、看基本面，看那些暂时不喧哗但真正重要的变 量。 而它们往往不会是社交媒体上最热闹的那一批，过去6册《公司的秘密》几乎都遵循了这一逻辑。 在即将发布的第7册里，这个规律被打破了。 我们把它拆解给你看 回看 2025 年我们发表的 12 篇研报，你会发现一个明显变化——它们几乎全部围绕年度商业热点展开。 △ 点击即可预订《公司的秘密7》 当然，这些公司之所以能被《第一财经》杂志选中成为研报对象，并不是因为声量，而是因为足够重要 和有趣。 和以往一样，编辑和记者做的，并不是复述新闻、放大情绪，而是持续做一件"有点反直觉"的事：从财 报、采访和公开数据里，挖掘那些被常规商业报道有意或无意忽略的信息。 你会看到—— 寒武纪，在夏天一度超越茅台，成为中国 A 股市值第二 泡泡玛特出海业绩增长超 400%，Labubu 成为全球级网红 霸王茶姬、地平线、Figma，完成各自行业里具有标志 ...

泡泡玛特近两年来的首次股票回购行动未能动摇空头的信心，即便股价出现急剧反弹，使得这些头寸的 风险越来越大，空头也依然不为所动。 根据标普全球最新数据，截至1月22日泡泡玛特的空头头寸占自由流通股的比例约8%，高于一周前的 6%。当前空头押注已达到2023年7月以来最高水平。此前泡泡玛特股价创下5个月来最大涨幅，公司为 提振遭遇重挫的股价，采取了强有力的股票回购措施。 "美国市场仍持续产生相当规模的空头仓位，当地销售趋势在1月继续放缓，"Bernstein亚洲消费股分析 师Melinda Hu表示。"而本周的股价反弹并非由基本面因素推动，我怀疑他们可能借机进一步加仓。" 标普全球数据显示，截至1月22日泡泡玛特的空头头寸约为6000万股，高于一周前的4400万股。泡泡玛 特暂未对此置评。 泡泡玛特试图重振投资者信心的同时，相当一部分交易员对其长期发展前景持续存疑，而当前市场格局 的分化，凸显双方的博弈日益加剧。多头强调新品推出以及具有吸引力的估值水平，而空头则越来越关 注海外关键市场需求降温的迹象。 ...

Group 1 - IKEA launches instant retail service in partnership with JD.com, marking its entry into the instant retail sector, covering 13 stores across 9 cities in China [7] - Bubble Mart's Valentine's Day limited edition series "Star People" sees prices surge nearly 7 times, with popular hidden items selling for up to 699 yuan [5] - Ideal Auto plans to close underperforming stores as part of a strategic evaluation, with the number of closures yet to be determined [4] Group 2 - Tencent's anti-fraud department reported over 90 employees were dismissed for violating company policies, with some cases referred to law enforcement [4] - Intel's CFO indicates the company is operating at a "hand to mouth" state, focusing on high-end products due to supply constraints, which may affect market share in lower-end segments [4] - Amazon is set to initiate another round of layoffs affecting thousands of employees as part of a broader plan to reduce its workforce by approximately 30,000 [5] Group 3 - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is expected to be approved in China as early as next month, although the company has not confirmed any specific updates [6] - The Chinese securities regulator imposed a record fine exceeding 1 billion yuan on individual Yu Han for manipulating the stock market [7] - Toyota has incurred an additional cost of approximately 5.1 trillion yen over the past four and a half years due to rising prices in the automotive industry [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for trendy toys is not a false need; entertainment is a necessity. The "Kidult" trend, driven by demographic changes, media evolution, and consumer psychology, is a long-term trend in the toy industry, exemplified by the increasing market share of companies targeting adult consumers [1][14] - The global entertainment and media industry is projected to reach approximately $3 trillion by 2024, indicating a growing market for diversified entertainment offerings [1][35] Supply-Side Growth Potential - Store Expansion: The company has significant room for growth in retail locations, with a projected increase in global retail stores from 571 in 2025, with a substantial portion located in China [2][58] - Increased Store Traffic: Domestic single-store membership is expected to rise from 145,000 to nearly 200,000, indicating potential for higher customer traffic [2] - Higher Member Spending: The maturity of IPs is expected to drive up member spending, as seen with the SKULLPANDA IP, where the cost to collect all items increased significantly from 5,922 RMB in 2021 to 47,430 RMB in 2025 [2] Demand-Side Competitive Barriers - Artist Talent Barrier: The company has established relationships with mature toy artists, creating a long-term competitive advantage [3] - Marketing Resource Barrier: The company's business model relies on top-tier brand collaborations and celebrity endorsements, which are core competitive barriers [3] - User Data Asset Barrier: The company's direct sales channels enhance its ability to control user data and market feedback, improving operational efficiency [3] Valuation Safety Margin - The company's valuation is expected to be significantly above 10X PE, given its growth stage and the rising influence of China's cultural output on its growth trajectory [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 369.57 billion RMB, 551.72 billion RMB, and 678.11 billion RMB for the years 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 123.76 billion RMB, 173.73 billion RMB, and 226.85 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 295.98%, 40.37%, and 30.58% respectively [4][7] - The target price is set at 359.72 HKD, based on a 25X PE for 2026 [4]

Market Overview - The US stock market indices showed mixed performance on Friday, with the Hang Seng Index ADR closing at 26,719.08 points, down by 30.43 points or 0.11% compared to the Hong Kong close [1]. Major Blue-Chip Stocks - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 130.896, up by 0.69% from the Hong Kong close [2]. - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 598.184, up by 0.54% from the Hong Kong close [2]. Stock Performance Summary - Tencent Holdings (HKD 595.000) saw a decrease of HKD 2.500, or -0.42%, with its ADR price at HKD 598.184, reflecting an increase of HKD 3.184 or 0.54% [3]. - Alibaba Group (HKD 168.500) increased by HKD 3.700, or 2.25%, with its ADR price at HKD 168.834, up by HKD 0.334 or 0.20% [3]. - HSBC Holdings (HKD 130.000) rose by HKD 0.300, or 0.23%, with its ADR price at HKD 130.896, up by HKD 0.896 or 0.69% [3]. - Xiaomi Group (HKD 36.240) increased by HKD 1.000, or 2.84%, with its ADR price at HKD 36.287, up by HKD 0.047 or 0.13% [3]. - AIA Group (HKD 83.050) rose by HKD 0.550, or 0.67%, with its ADR price at HKD 83.077, up by HKD 0.027 or 0.03% [3]. - Meituan (HKD 97.550) increased by HKD 0.550, or 0.57%, with its ADR price at HKD 97.735, up by HKD 0.185 or 0.19% [3]. - Kuaishou (HKD 81.250) rose by HKD 2.150, or 2.72%, with its ADR price at HKD 82.648, up by HKD 1.398 or 1.72% [3]. - Ctrip Group (HKD 485.400) increased by HKD 3.800, or 0.79%, with its ADR price at HKD 490.273, up by HKD 4.873 or 1.00% [3].

2025年是中国国潮品牌的"高光之年"，其影响力从国内延伸到海外。在中国，整个夏天，泡泡玛特的拉 布布（LABUBU）一"布"难求;冬天，"星星人"又跟喜茶联名推出奶茶。这一年，黄金品牌老铺黄金在 新加坡开设首家海外门店；喜茶"三倍厚抹"被海外消费者视为"时髦单品"，一度卖到售罄。在泰国， LABUBU还被授予"神奇泰国体验官"的称号，其在曼谷MEGA BANGNA商场开设的主题店，首日营业 额就突破千万元人民币。 没有语言门槛，无需背景介绍，仅凭一句简单的"LABUBU"、一杯印着小人头像的奶茶，就能够在世界 范围引起共鸣，中国国潮成为不同国家消费者之间进行跨文化交流的语言。 喜好大不同 艾媒咨询最新发布的《2025年中国国潮经济消费行为调查数据》显示，中国消费者对潮流品牌的偏好主 要集中在国内品牌上，占比高达85.79%，远超国外品牌。这表明国内潮流品牌在中国市场上具有较高 的认可度和影响力，已在消费者心中占据主导地位。 从各国消费者的留言来看，他们对中国国潮商品的喜爱主要源于对可爱设计、美学价值、卓越品质、健 康属性以及情绪价值的普遍追求。正是这些全世界消费者共通的情感，让国潮得以跨越地理和文化边 界。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for trendy toys is not a false need; entertainment is a necessity. The "Kidult" trend, driven by demographic changes, media evolution, and consumer psychology, is a long-term trend in the toy industry, exemplified by the increasing market share of companies targeting adult consumers [1][14] - The global entertainment and media industry is projected to reach approximately $3 trillion by 2024, indicating a growing market for diversified entertainment offerings [1][35] Supply-Side Growth Potential - Store Expansion: The company has significant room for growth in retail locations, with a projected increase in global retail stores from 571 in 2025, with a substantial portion located in China [2][58] - Increased Store Traffic: Domestic single-store membership is expected to rise from 145,000 to nearly 200,000, with the opening of the first U.S. store in September 2023 [2] - Higher Member Spending: The maturity of IPs is expected to drive up the average spending per member, as seen with the SKULLPANDA IP, where the cost to purchase all products increased significantly from 5,922 RMB in 2021 to 47,430 RMB in 2025 [2] Demand-Side Competitive Barriers - Artist Talent Barrier: The company has established partnerships with mature toy artists in Hong Kong, creating a long-term competitive advantage [3] - Marketing Resource Barrier: The company's business model relies on top-tier brand collaborations and celebrity endorsements, which are core competitive barriers [3] - User Data Asset Barrier: The company has strong control over user data and market feedback due to its direct sales channels, enhancing operational efficiency [3] Valuation Safety Margin - The company's valuation is expected to be significantly above 10X PE, given its growth stage and the rising cultural influence of China on the global stage [3] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 36.96 billion, 55.10 billion, and 67.74 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 12.38 billion, 17.35 billion, and 22.66 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 295.98%, 40.21%, and 30.59% respectively [4][7] - The target price is set at 359.72 HKD, based on a 25X PE for 2026 [4]

摘要 泡泡玛特自 2024 年 1 月以来首次回购股票，显示公司对自身经营的信 心，并对冲市场做空行为带来的负面影响。尽管存在做空报告，公司仍 展现出强劲的市场信心。 伯恩斯坦做空报告认为美国市场将走弱且所有 IP 都在弱化，但该论点基 于二手价格和搜索指数，未能充分反映实际销售和消费者粘性，且对中 国和美国市场预期存在矛盾。 国内渠道和 IP 结构优于国外，线下店铺人流量健康，Q4 店效同比增长 接近 40%。星星人 IP 运营成功，而拉布布的火爆更多依赖偶然因素。 中国市场预计 2026 年仍将贡献 50%-60%的销售额。 公司不断推出新品并探索多样化运营策略，如马年组合 IP 毛绒新品和碧 琪敲敲系列，以及 DIMO 联名款和 Sky Panda 时尚元素，显示出公司 创新和适应市场需求的能力。 泡泡玛特在单一 IP 运营上注重结合消费者反馈和会员数据进行产品改造， 如拉布布第三代和第四代产品，展示了公司在 IP 及产品创新方面的能力。 泡泡玛特 20260122 Q&A 泡泡玛特近期有哪些重要的市场行为和表现？ 泡泡玛特近期进行了两次大规模回购。第一次回购发生在 1 月 19 日，涉及 140 万股 ...

盲盒潮玩披上"赛博修行"的外衣，一件名为"PUCKY敲敲系列电子木鱼"的毛绒挂件产品，在短短一周内，掀起消费市场与社交网络的双重热潮。泡泡玛 特这款结合敲击音效与"财富+1""快乐+1"等标签的电子木鱼登上热搜，成为继Labubu之后又一现象级IP爆款。 据得物App数据，该系列隐藏款"成功"市场成交价已从发售价99元飙升至396元，溢价高达3倍；常规款"智慧"也从99元涨至209元，溢价一倍。单盒售价99 元、整盒594元的定价，在粉丝眼中并非门槛，而是通往"情绪解压""心理慰藉"的消费入场券。 "PUCKY敲敲系列"于1月15日推出，采用"6款常规角色+1款隐藏款"的盲盒配置，将毕奇、招财猫等萌系IP与电子发声装置结合，敲击头部即可触发音 效，被网友戏称为"电子木鱼""打工人的赛博诵经"。在高压社会环境下，这种将传统文化元素进行现代化、娱乐化改造的产品，精准切中了年轻人对轻松 片刻、心理补偿的情感需求。 业内人士认为，电子木鱼敲响的，不仅是一场"赛博修行"的热潮，更是一个属于"心价比"时代的消费信号。扬子晚报/紫牛新闻记者陈哲 视频摄制陈哲 校对 胡妍璐 业内人士认为，泡泡玛特电子木鱼的爆火并非偶然。它指 ...

万得数据显示，泡泡玛特近七个交易日南向资金成交净买入近17亿港元。 此次大涨，主要在于公司近两年来首次启动股份回购，提振市场信心，机构资金积极流入；与此同时，多家机构维持对公司的业 绩增长乐观预期。 盲盒市场层面，1月22日，泡泡玛特发布2026年情人节限定款盲盒"星星人怦然星动"系列，该系列上线后迅速售罄，热门款在二手 市场出现较高溢价。另一款"PUCKY敲敲系列"盲盒被网友称为"电子木鱼"，也成了热门商品。 回调数月的"港股新消费三姐妹"之一的泡泡玛特，在本周强势反弹。 截至1月23日收盘，泡泡玛特收涨6.6%，周累计涨幅约23%，为近三年来单周最大涨幅。 2025年下半年以来，泡泡玛特股价持续回调，且与公司同期公布的业绩形成显著反差。Wind数据显示，2025年下半年，泡泡玛特 股价累计下跌约30%，而泡泡玛特第三季度整体收入同比增长245%至250%。 市场分析人士认为，这一现象背后存在多重结构性原因。一方面，港股大盘自2025下半年以来整体承压，流动性减弱，泡泡玛 特、蜜雪冰城、老铺黄金等消费板块的明星股，业绩亮眼但难以抵御宏观环境的压力；另一方面，公司为应对市场需求，对盲盒 进行扩产补货，在一定程 ...