今天分享的是：2025潮玩、谷子、AI玩具，拥抱年轻人爱玩之心-中国银河 报告共计：14页 潮玩、谷子与AI玩具：Z世代消费新浪潮席卷而来 【关于我们】 在当代消费图景中，年轻一代的"爱玩之心"正悄然重塑市场格局。潮玩、谷子与AI玩具作为新兴赛道，凭借其独特的情感价值 与互动体验，迅速成为Z世代追捧的对象。这一现象不仅反映了消费偏好的代际变迁，更揭示出情绪经济在轻工业领域的深远影 响。随着年轻人日益愿意为兴趣与情感买单，玩具不再只是儿童的专属，而是演变为连接社群、表达个性的重要媒介。 潮玩市场近年来展现出强劲的增长势头。以泡泡玛特为代表的品牌，通过IP运营与盲盒模式成功撬动消费者收藏欲望，复购率 持续攀升。数据显示，中国潮玩市场规模从2015年至2022年复合增长率高达34%，2024年预计突破760亿元。Z世代作为消费主 力，其月可支配收入超过3500元，消费力不容小觑。他们不仅追求产品的艺术性与独特性，还通过二手社群交易增强归属感与 认同感。与此同时，潮玩品牌加速线下布局，一线城市门店密集，而下沉市场仍具广阔空间，未来增长潜力显著。 "谷子"作为动漫、游戏衍生产品的统称，亦在年轻群体中掀起热潮。从徽章、海 ...

当一些人还在纠结天猫双11该囤洗衣液还是化妆品时，年轻一代正为一枚《崩坏：星穹铁道》的徽章、一张《恋与深空》的卡片，或是一个泡泡玛特的 LABUBU熬夜守候。 而且，他们的购买力不容小觑。在米哈游的miHoYo天猫旗舰店，"已售20万+"的标识已是常态。 中国玩具和婴童用品协会发布的2025行业白皮书显示，中国玩具潮玩的市场份额（含线上、线下）大约1536亿元，同比增长26%，是一个妥妥的成长中的 千亿级"新消费风口"。 而淘宝天猫，正是这个风口上当仁不让的核心阵地。淘天玩具潮玩行业数据显示，天猫双11周期里，整体同比保持两位数增长，超过30万个新品发售，超 过1万个商家增长翻倍。 久谦中台报告指出，2025年双11第一阶段，淘天潮玩销售额占整体市场大盘的75.8%，是行业公认的线上潮玩"第一大平台"。 当然，这份压倒性的份额优势，不是一日之功，而是源于长达数年的前瞻性布局与坚定的"行业基建"战略。 "舒坦了，就是奔着handsome来的。"一位用户在天猫双11抢到Topps 的NBA Match Attax篮球对战卡后，激动地写下了评论。 "今年偏高价的商品成交特别迅猛，因为潮玩有收藏属性和社交属性存在，所 ...

Core Insights - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of approximately 38.60 billion HKD this week, an increase of about 13.90 billion HKD compared to last week, accounting for 41.88% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index [2] - Despite a continued adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market, southbound funds maintained a consistent inflow over five trading days, with a focus on increasing positions in technology stocks [2] - Alibaba saw a net buy of 13.32 billion HKD over the past week, marking a significant investment trend [3] Investment Highlights - Alibaba (9988.HK) experienced a net buy of 13.32 billion HKD, despite a weekly decline of 4.71%, with 57.10 million shares added in the last five days [4] - Xiaomi (1810.HK) had a net buy of 5.58 billion HKD, with a weekly decline of 10.10% and 59.82 million shares added [4] - Tencent (0700.HK) saw a net buy of 2.90 billion HKD, with a weekly decline of 4.84% and 1.80 million shares added [4] - Xpeng Motors (9868.HK) recorded a net buy of 2.29 billion HKD, with a significant weekly decline of 20.47% and 1.88 million shares added [4] - On the sell side, Pop Mart (9992.HK) faced a net sell of 460 million HKD, with a weekly decline of 7.90% and a reduction of 2.25 million shares [4] Daily Fund Flow - On the latest trading day, southbound funds had a net buy of approximately 1.05 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing a net inflow of about 498 million HKD, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net outflow of approximately 393 million HKD [5] - Major net buys included Alibaba (11.58 billion HKD), Tencent (17.36 billion HKD), and Xiaomi (10.82 billion HKD) [5] - Significant net sells included Hua Hong Semiconductor (3.37 billion HKD) and Ganfeng Lithium (1.91 billion HKD) [5]

Core Insights - On November 21, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Yingfu Fund (02800) were the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 75.13 billion, 50.10 billion, and 39.92 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Tencent Holdings (00700) also ranked as the top three, with trading amounts of 59.52 billion, 26.55 billion, and 24.41 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 75.13 billion with a net buying amount of +8.47 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a trading amount of 50.10 billion with a net buying amount of +9.48 billion [1] - Yingfu Fund (02800) had a trading amount of 39.92 billion but a net selling amount of -37.55 billion [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a trading amount of 36.12 billion with a net buying amount of +9.61 billion [1] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 31.12 billion with a net buying amount of +1.49 billion [1] - Meituan-W (03690) recorded a trading amount of 12.35 billion with a net selling amount of -55.12 million [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) had a trading amount of 11.02 billion with a net selling amount of -1.91 billion [1] - Pop Mart (09992) recorded a trading amount of 10.97 billion with a net selling amount of -6.97 million [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) had a trading amount of 10.81 billion with a net selling amount of -6.86 million [1] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) recorded a trading amount of 9.73 billion with a net buying amount of +650.39 million [1] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 59.52 billion with a net buying amount of +3.10 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a trading amount of 26.55 billion with a net buying amount of +3.20 billion [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a trading amount of 24.41 billion with a net buying amount of +7.75 billion [1] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 24.07 billion with a net selling amount of -3.39 billion [1] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) recorded a trading amount of 14.79 billion with a net buying amount of +723.43 million [1] - Yingfu Fund (02800) had a trading amount of 14.01 billion with a net selling amount of -13.88 billion [1] - Meituan-W (03690) recorded a trading amount of 10.17 billion with a net buying amount of +2.01 billion [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) had a trading amount of 8.68 billion with a net selling amount of -2.69 billion [1] - XPeng Motors-W (09868) recorded a trading amount of 7.82 billion with a net buying amount of +1.34 billion [1] - Kuaishou-W (01024) had a trading amount of 6.63 billion with a net buying amount of +2.36 billion [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant decline, with southbound funds net buying HKD 105 million in Hong Kong stocks [1] - Notable net purchases included Tencent Holdings at HKD 1.736 billion, Xiaomi Group at HKD 1.268 billion, and Alibaba at HKD 1.158 billion [1] - Southbound funds have continuously net bought Alibaba for 7 days, totaling HKD 13.321 billion, and have net bought Xpeng Motors for 4 days, totaling HKD 1.87077 billion [1] Group 2 - Major net sales included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong at HKD 5.143 billion and Hua Hong Semiconductor at HKD 337 million [1] - Semiconductor companies like Ganfeng Lithium and SMIC also saw net sales of HKD 190 million and HKD 189 million respectively [1] - The overall market sentiment reflected a downward trend, with several companies experiencing declines in stock prices, including SMIC down by 6.4% and Ganfeng Lithium down by 12.5% [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for Chinese enterprises going global, with a projected increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) to 1.16 trillion RMB in 2024, reflecting an 11.30% year-on-year growth [8]. Core Insights - Chinese enterprises are actively exploring new pathways for international expansion, adapting strategies in response to geopolitical challenges and evolving market conditions [4][8]. - The ASEAN region has emerged as a key destination for Chinese investment, with its share of China's outbound investment rising from 6.34% in 2014 to 17.88% in 2024 [8]. - The structure of China's outbound investment is shifting, with significant increases in the wholesale, retail, and manufacturing sectors, indicating a deeper integration into global value chains [8][52]. Summary by Sections Part A: Challenges and Pathways for Chinese Enterprises Going Global - The Chinese government is committed to high-quality outbound investment, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a stable international economic environment despite rising geopolitical tensions [18][19]. - The share of China's exports in global trade is projected to reach 14.64% in 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest exporter [19][23]. - Chinese enterprises are increasingly focusing on the ASEAN region for investment, with a notable rise in direct investment since the implementation of the RCEP [44][52]. Part B: Financial Support for Outbound Expansion - Chinese financial institutions are enhancing their overseas presence, with major banks establishing branches in numerous countries to support outbound enterprises [9]. - There is a strong emphasis on integrating domestic and international resources, with banks providing cross-border credit and financing solutions for projects under the Belt and Road Initiative [9][11]. - Innovative financial products and services are being developed to support overseas investments, including specialized loans for infrastructure projects and comprehensive solutions for cross-border e-commerce [9][11]. Part C: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Recommendations include optimizing overseas network construction, enhancing multi-tiered financial service systems, and expanding the use of cross-border RMB [12][13]. - A comprehensive risk management system is suggested to help enterprises navigate geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility [12][13]. - Strengthening collaboration between financial institutions and industries is crucial for supporting enterprises in their global expansion efforts [12][13].

| 代码 | 简称 | 类型 | 成交金额（万港元） | 成交净买入（万港元） | 日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 港股通(沪) | 497638.32 | -8562.44 | -2.89 | | 02800 | 盈富基金 | 港股通(沪) | 477217.64 | 472488.75 | 0.08 | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(沪) | 390877.70 | 18626.19 | -1.02 | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 港股通(深) | 334534.00 | -52012.32 | -2.89 | | 02800 | 盈富基金 | 港股通(深) | 270916.00 | 269508.27 | 0.08 | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(深) | 262831.00 | 88081.62 | -1.02 | | 00700 | 腾讯控股 | 港股通(沪) | 223515.49 | -67133.19 | -0.24 | | 00981 | 中芯国 ...

Core Insights - The highest short-selling ratios were observed for New World Development-R, Geely Automobile-R, and China Resources Beer-R, all at 100.00% [1] - The top three companies by short-selling amount were Alibaba-SW, Xiaomi Group-W, and Tencent Holdings, with amounts of 2.247 billion, 1.597 billion, and 1.377 billion respectively [1] - The highest deviation values were recorded for Geely Automobile-R, China National Offshore Oil-R, and Meituan-WR, with values of 63.65%, 52.70%, and 40.64% respectively [1] Short-Selling Ratio Rankings - New World Development-R (80016): Short-selling amount of 405,600, with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 25.33% [2] - Geely Automobile-R (80175): Short-selling amount of 872,700, with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 63.65% [2] - China Resources Beer-R (80291): Short-selling amount of 102,900, with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 34.15% [2] - Anta Sports-R (82020): Short-selling amount of 227,100, with a ratio of 88.24% and a deviation of 5.81% [2] - BYD Company-R (81211): Short-selling amount of 1,923,700, with a ratio of 87.66% and a deviation of 28.04% [2] Short-Selling Amount Rankings - Alibaba-SW (09988): Short-selling amount of 2.247 billion, with a ratio of 22.01% and a deviation of 6.56% [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): Short-selling amount of 1.597 billion, with a ratio of 12.18% and a deviation of -5.08% [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): Short-selling amount of 1.377 billion, with a ratio of 15.85% and a deviation of -0.40% [2] - XPeng Motors-W (09868): Short-selling amount of 949 million, with a ratio of 32.35% and a deviation of 14.52% [2] Short-Selling Deviation Rankings - Geely Automobile-R (80175): Short-selling amount of 872,700, with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 63.65% [2] - China National Offshore Oil-R (80883): Short-selling amount of 828,200, with a ratio of 74.60% and a deviation of 52.70% [2] - Meituan-WR (83690): Short-selling amount of 2,121,200, with a ratio of 86.46% and a deviation of 40.64% [2] - China Resources Beer-R (80291): Short-selling amount of 102,900, with a ratio of 100.00% and a deviation of 34.15% [2]

Core Insights - Kalshi has partnered with StockX to create "event contracts" that allow users to predict resale prices of items like sneakers and collectibles [3] - The growth of the secondary market for trendy items has been significant, with products like the Labubu doll seeing prices soar from 99 RMB to thousands, boosting the market value of its parent company Pop Mart [3] - Kalshi aims to expand into new markets with high liquidity and trading volume, potentially legitimizing the prediction trading industry [4] Company Developments - Kalshi plans to introduce prediction contracts for popular items such as Jordan sneakers and Supreme hoodies, as well as for the best-selling brands during the Black Friday shopping event [3] - StockX's CEO views this market as a natural evolution of stock market mechanisms, indicating a shift in how collectibles are traded [3] - Coinbase is reportedly developing an independent prediction market platform that may utilize Kalshi's infrastructure, indicating growing interest in this sector [5] Market Trends - The secondary market for limited edition sneakers from brands like Nike and Adidas, as well as Pokémon trading cards, has shown similar trends of price appreciation, making derivative trading on these items potentially profitable [3] - The prediction industry is gaining traction, with Kalshi having received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to engage in prediction trading, including for events like U.S. elections [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hangzhou Tongshifu Cultural Creative (Group) Co., Ltd., known as "Tongshifu," has achieved nearly 600 million yuan in revenue from copper cultural products and is now pursuing an IPO in Hong Kong after an unsuccessful attempt to list on the A-share market in 2024 [1][13]. Company Overview - Tongshifu has been deeply engaged in the copper cultural product sector for over a decade and ranks first in the Chinese market with a market share of approximately 35.0% in total revenue and 44.1% in online revenue as of December 31, 2024 [1][3]. - The company's main brand, "Tongshifu," has generated significant revenue from copper cultural products, contributing 4.80 billion yuan, 4.88 billion yuan, 5.51 billion yuan, and 2.93 billion yuan from 2022 to the first half of 2025, accounting for over 90% of total revenue [1][6]. Market Position - The copper cultural product market in China is highly concentrated, with the top three players holding over 71.9% of the market share. Tongshifu leads with a market share of 35.0% [3][4]. - The second-largest competitor, speculated to be Hangzhou Zhubingren Copper Art Co., Ltd., achieved revenues of 4.85 billion yuan and 6.20 billion yuan in 2023 and 2024, respectively [4]. Revenue and Profitability - From 2022 to 2024, Tongshifu's revenues were approximately 5.03 billion yuan, 5.06 billion yuan, and 5.71 billion yuan, with net profits fluctuating from 570 million yuan in 2022 to 440 million yuan in 2023, and then increasing to 790 million yuan in 2024 [11]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.08 billion yuan and a net profit of 300 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [11]. Product Categories and Sales Channels - The core product category is copper cultural products, which contributed 95.4%, 96.3%, 96.6%, and 94.9% of total revenue from 2022 to the first half of 2025 [6][9]. - Online sales dominate the revenue stream, with online direct sales accounting for approximately 70% of total revenue during the same period [10][11]. Consumer Base and Branding - The target audience primarily consists of middle-aged men, leading to the nickname "the Bubble Mart for middle-aged consumers." Loyal customers are referred to as "Tongfen," and the company organizes an annual "Tongfen Festival" to engage them [1][15]. - The company has developed a range of sub-brands, including plastic trendy toys and silver cultural products, although these currently contribute less than 5% of total revenue [8][9]. Investment and Shareholding - The company has attracted significant investment from notable entities, including Xiaomi Group and Shunwei Capital, with Xiaomi-related holdings totaling approximately 22.95% [13][14]. - The founder, Yu Guang, remains the largest single shareholder with a 26.27% stake [13]. Industry Outlook - The domestic copper cultural product market is projected to grow from 1.1 billion yuan in 2019 to 1.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.7% expected from 2024 to 2029, reaching 2.3 billion yuan by 2029 [16].