Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price of phosphate rock remains stable at a high level, while the volume of phosphate fertilizer and urea has increased but prices have declined. The company's debt-to-asset ratio continues to improve [1][8] - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 13,004 million yuan (YoY -6%, QoQ -12%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,289 million yuan (YoY -12%, QoQ +42%) [8] - The report emphasizes the integrated advantages of the phosphate chemical enterprise and the ongoing optimization of its debt structure, alongside a strategic shift towards fine phosphate chemical business and efficient development of phosphate resources [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 61,336 million yuan, with a projected net profit of 5,518 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 3.01 yuan [7] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve slightly to 18.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 21.5% [7] - The debt-to-asset ratio is reported at 49.96%, down 2.30 percentage points from the end of 2024, indicating ongoing financial stability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, but maintained stable sales volumes for its main products, indicating overall performance in line with expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 13.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.16% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.21% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.289 billion yuan, down 11.65% year-on-year but up 41.85% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.270 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.50% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.25% [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 17.23%, down 1.89 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1]. Product Sales and Pricing - Sales volumes for key products showed positive year-on-year growth: - Phosphate: +8.22% - Compound (mixed) fertilizer: +23.17% - Urea: +17.00% - Polyoxymethylene: -4.60% - Yellow phosphorus: +1.64% - Feed-grade dicalcium phosphate: +9.40% [1]. - Sales prices for these products varied, with notable changes including: - Urea: +21.06% year-on-year - Feed-grade dicalcium phosphate: +20.55% year-on-year [1]. Resource and Competitive Advantage - The company has a strong resource advantage with phosphate rock prices expected to remain high due to supply-demand balance, supporting phosphate chemical product prices [2]. - The company ranks among the top in the country for phosphate reserves and annual mining capacity, achieving full self-sufficiency [2]. - A subsidiary has secured exploration rights for a significant phosphate mine, which is expected to enhance the company's resource security and integrated advantages in the phosphate chemical industry [2]. Investor Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 14 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling 2.552 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 47.86%, an increase of 7.54 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company aims to maintain a high level of cash dividends and dividend yield in the future due to stable operations and improved debt structure [2]. Investment Outlook - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 5.315 billion, 5.636 billion, and 5.875 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -0.34%, +6.04%, and +4.25% respectively [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.90, 3.07, and 3.20 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.69, 7.25, and 6.96 [3]. - The company is viewed positively due to the sustained high demand for phosphate and its competitive edge as a leading integrated phosphate chemical enterprise, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3].

Group 1: Ninebot Company (689009) - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%, and a net profit of 456 million yuan, up 236.2% year-on-year [10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been raised to 1.898 billion, 2.700 billion, and 3.600 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 75.1%, 42.2%, and 33.3% [10] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X, 17X, and 13X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Group 2: Kweichow Moutai (600519) - The company achieved a revenue of 43.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with a net profit margin of 52.2% [15][13] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 93.96 billion, 99.14 billion, and 104.71 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [11][12] - The company maintains a strong brand presence and cash flow quality, with a current PE ratio of 21X, 20X, and 19X for the respective years [12][13] Group 3: Caibai Co., Ltd. (605599) - The company reported a net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 804 million, 877 million, and 949 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [19] - The increase in gold prices has driven demand for investment products, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [19] - The company continues to expand its direct store network and enhance its online sales channels, achieving significant growth in e-commerce sales [16][19] Group 4: Bull Group (603195) - The company reported a revenue of 16.831 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 4.272 billion yuan, up 10.4% [18] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.04 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.49 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [19] - The company is focusing on channel expansion and brand recognition to drive long-term sustainable growth [19] Group 5: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) - The company achieved a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [21] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 12.99 billion, 14.02 billion, and 15.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.1%, 7.9%, and 9.1% respectively [21] - The company maintains a strong market presence with a diversified product range and solid management capabilities [21] Group 6: Yili Group (600887) - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, with a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [26] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 11.377 billion, 12.138 billion, and 12.815 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35%, 7%, and 6% respectively [28] - The company continues to focus on high-end product penetration and market share expansion in the dairy sector [28]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to falling prices of phosphate and urea products, but showed a positive trend in cash flow from operating activities [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.2% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.289 billion yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.7 yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year but up 41.9% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Operating cash flow net amount was 2.85 billion yuan, an increase of 14.3% year-on-year [1]. - Gross profit was 2.037 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and 18.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 15.7%, down 2.0 and 1.2 percentage points respectively [1]. Product Segment Performance - Phosphate revenue was 3.923 billion yuan, down 0.9% year-on-year but up 8.3% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 1.277 million tons, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year and 21.6% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Urea revenue was 1.3 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year but up 1% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 754,000 tons, an increase of 21.8% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Compound fertilizer revenue was 1.501 billion yuan, up 14.5% year-on-year but down 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 525,000 tons, an increase of 23.2% year-on-year and 17.9% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Feed-grade calcium phosphate revenue was 493 million yuan, up 31.9% year-on-year but down 14% quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume of 127,000 tons, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year but down 22.5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Industry Trends - The phosphate rock supply-demand situation is tight, with prices expected to remain high; the Zhenxiong phosphate mine is anticipated to provide growth opportunities [3]. - The current market average price for phosphate rock (30%) is 1,020 yuan/ton, remaining at a high level [3]. - The company has 14.5 million tons of phosphate rock production capacity and is actively advancing exploration and planning for the Zhenxiong phosphate mine [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025/26 unchanged, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 7.4x and 7.6x for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4]. - The target price is set at 26.5 yuan, indicating a 19% upside potential and P/E ratios of 8.9x and 9.0x for 2025 and 2026 respectively, maintaining an outperform rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company has released its first quarter report for 2025, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the financial information presented [2][8][20]. Financial Data Summary - The financial statements for the first quarter of 2025 have not been audited [3][7]. - The company reported a total of 11,338,016 shares held in its repurchase account, representing 0.62% of the total shares [4]. - The report includes details on major accounting data and financial indicators, although specific figures are not provided in the excerpts [3][20]. Shareholder Information - The company has confirmed that there are no changes in the top ten shareholders or significant shareholders participating in the securities lending business [5][6]. Board and Supervisory Meetings - The board of directors held a meeting on April 29, 2025, with all nine directors participating and unanimously approving the first quarter report [9][11]. - The supervisory board also convened on the same day, with all six supervisors present, and approved the same report [15][18]. Major Operational Data - The company disclosed its major operational data for the first quarter, including production volumes, sales, and revenue, although specific figures are not detailed in the excerpts [20][21]. - There were no significant changes in the prices of major products and raw materials during the reporting period [21].

2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

云南云天化股份有限公司 审计委员会关于第九届董事会第四十三次（临时）会议 相关事项的审核意见 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上海 证券交易所股票上市规则》等有关法律法规和《公司章程》的规定，公 司董事会审计委员会就公司第九届董事会第四十三次（临时）会议审议 的《2025 年第一季度报告》发表如下书面审核意见： 公司财务报表在所有重大方面公允反映了公司 2025 年 3 月 31 日的 财务状况和 2025 年一季度的现金流量，公司 2025 年第一季度报告公允 反映了公司 2025 年第一季度的财务状况和经营成果。公司 2025 年第一 季度报告所披露的信息真实、准确、完整，不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或重大遗漏，审计委员会同意该议案。 云南云天化股份有限公司 第九届董事会审计委员会 2025年4月29日 ...

证券代码：600096 证券简称：云天化 公告编号：临 2025-037 云南云天化股份有限公司 第九届监事会第三十八次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、监事会会议召开情况 云南云天化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第九届监事会第 三十八次会议通知于 2025 年 4 月 24 日分别以送达、电子邮件等方式 通知全体监事及相关人员。会议于 2025 年 4 月 29 日以通讯表决的方 式召开。应当参与表决监事 6 人，实际参加表决监事 6 人，符合《公 司法》和《公司章程》的有关规定。 二、监事会会议审议情况 （一）6 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权，审议通过了《关于修订 公司与云南云天化集团财务有限公司关联交易的风险控制制度的议 案》。 （二）6 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权，审议通过了《2025 年第 一季度报告》。 监事会认为：公司《2025 年第一季度报告》按照法律法规和相 关规定编制，审议程序符合法律法规和《公司章程》的规定，公允地 反映了公司报告期内的财务状况和经营成果，所披露的信 ...

证券代码：600096 证券简称：云天化 公告编号：临 2025-036 云南云天化股份有限公司 第九届董事会第四十三次（临时）会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 全体董事参与表决 云南云天化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第九届董事会第四 十三次（临时）会议通知于 2025 年 4 月 24 日以送达、邮件等方式通 知全体董事及相关人员。会议于 2025 年 4 月 29 日以通讯表决的方式 召开。应当参与表决董事 9 人，实际参加表决董事 9 人，符合《公司 法》和《公司章程》的有关规定。 二、董事会会议审议情况 （一）9 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权，审议通过了《关于修订 公司与云南云天化集团财务有限公司关联交易的风险控制制度的议 案》。 详见上海证券交易所网站（http://www.sse.com.cn）公司同日披露 的《云南云天化股份有限公司与云南云天化集团财务有限公司关联交 易的风险控制制度》。 （二）9 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权，审议通过了《2025 年第 一季度 ...

云南云天化股份有限公司与云南云天化集团财务有 限公司关联交易的风险控制制度 （2025 年 4 月修订） 第一章 总则 第一条 为进一步规范云南云天化股份有限公司（下称"公司"） 与云南云天化集团财务有限公司（下称"财务公司"）的关联交易，切 实保证公司在财务公司存款的安全性、流动性，结合证券监管机构的 相关要求，制定本制度。 第三条 公司不得通过与财务公司签署委托贷款协议的方式，将 公司资金提供给控股股东、实际控制人及其他关联方使用。 第二章 信息披露 第六条 公司与集团财务公司进行存款、贷款、票据承兑贴现、 委托贷款、委托理财、结算等金融业务时，应严格遵守国家法律法规 和中国证券监督管理委员会、上海证券交易所等监管机构的各项要求， 审慎决策，并严格按照《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》对于关联交 易的规定履行决策程序和信息披露义务。 第三章 风险控制措施 第七条 在公司存款存放在财务公司期间，公司应每半年取得并 审阅财务公司的财务报告，对财务公司的经营资质、业务和风险状况 进行评估，出具风险评估报告，并作为单独议案提交董事会审议并披 露。 风险评估报告应当至少包括财务公司及其业务的合法合规情况、 是否存在违反 ...