Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, alongside growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate. The domestic supply-demand situation for phosphate rock is tightening, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining elevated [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a peak during the South American planting season and a subsequent decline due to high North American inventories. The report anticipates a recovery in glyphosate prices in 2026 [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices are projected to stabilize around 3,100-3,200 CNY/ton, with expectations of maintaining high inventory levels for food security [24][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over three years. The report highlights the increasing demand from lithium battery applications [2][50]. - Phosphate chemical prices have shown upward trends for products like lithium iron phosphate, while glyphosate prices have decreased significantly [49][51]. Pesticides - The report suggests a potential recovery in the pesticide sector, particularly for glyphosate and its derivatives, as the industry undergoes restructuring to improve profitability [4][8]. - Companies such as Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical are highlighted as key players in the pesticide market, with recommendations for investment [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Yuntianhua's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.01% on January 8, 2025, while the company has experienced a year-to-date increase of 3.86% [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 8, 2025, Yuntianhua's stock price is reported at 34.70 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 632.58 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 2.60% over the last five trading days, 12.48% over the last 20 days, and 19.94% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yuntianhua achieved a revenue of 375.99 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 19.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.89% to 47.29 billion CNY [2]. Group 3: Business Overview - Yuntianhua, established on July 2, 1997, and listed on July 9, 1997, is primarily engaged in the production of fertilizers, phosphate mining, and organic chemicals [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes phosphate fertilizers (27.99%), commodity grains (19.87%), compound fertilizers (12.51%), and urea (10.28%), among others [2]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Yuntianhua had 106,200 shareholders, a decrease of 1.03% from the previous period, with an average of 17,165 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.04% [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 121 million shares, a decrease of 10.9 million shares from the previous period [3].

2026年1月7日 1月6日标的指数成份股涨跌幅TOP20 标普中国 A 股红利机会指数(CSPSADRP) | 序号 | 代码 | 简称 | 更日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率(近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | 月) (%) | | 1 | 688516.SH | 奥特维 | 8.42 | 18.34 | 4.26 | | 2 | 002532.SZ | 天山铝业 | 7.75 | 12.61 | 2.35 | | 3 | 002083.SZ | 学日股份 | 7.41 | 18.15 | 1.10 | | 4 | 600096.SH | 云天化 | 5.65 | 6.91 | 4.73 | | 5 | 002895.SZ | 川恒股份 | 5.17 | 7.58 | 3.68 | | 6 | 000933.SZ | 神火股份 | 4.64 | 8.45 | 1.74 | | 7 | 605599 SH | 菜自股份 | 3.47 | 7.57 | 4.23 | | 8 | 000928.SZ | 中钢国际 | ...

| 600096 | 云天化 | 5.65 | 4.23 | 6879.05 | 2.54 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000422 | 湖北宜 | 3.85 | 5.83 | 4722.63 | 5.13 | | | 化 | | | | | | 002145 | 钛能化 | 4.88 | 2.77 | 4322.91 | 8.22 | | | 学 | | | | | | 603906 | 龙蟠科 | 2.70 | 7.54 | 3482.90 | 3.93 | | | 技 | | | | | | 300505 | 川金诺 | 4.23 | 11.64 | 3298.14 | 5.51 | | 002237 | 恒邦股 | 2.61 | 4.59 | 3040.19 | 3.95 | | | 份 | | | | | | 603993 | 洛阳钼 业 | 6.07 | 1.56 | 2625.44 | 0.45 | | | 鲁西化 | | | | | | 000830 | 工 | 7.63 | 2.18 | 2244.90 | 3.12 | | 60038 ...

Market Performance - The agricultural chemical sector increased by 4.04% on January 6, with LuHua Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4083.67, up 1.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.55, up 1.4% [1] Individual Stock Performance - LuHua Technology (600691) closed at 3.04, up 10.14%, with a trading volume of 380,400 shares and a transaction value of 113 million yuan [1] - Chengxing Co., Ltd. (600078) closed at 66.01, up 10.01%, with a trading volume of 430,500 shares and a transaction value of 453 million yuan [1] - Nongxin Technology (001231) closed at 30.17, up 9.99%, with a trading volume of 118,100 shares and a transaction value of 354 million yuan [1] - Xingfa Group (600141) closed at 37.50, up 8.89%, with a trading volume of 385,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.406 billion yuan [1] - Hualu Hengsheng (600426) closed at 33.28, up 6.29%, with a trading volume of 275,800 shares and a transaction value of 903 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net inflow of 5.3654 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 48.2077 million yuan [2][3] - The main capital inflow was observed in YunTianHua (600096) with a net inflow of 155 million yuan, while Chengxing Co., Ltd. (600078) had a net outflow of 53.3868 million yuan from retail investors [3]

1月6日，云天化涨5.15%，截至发稿，报35.55元/股，成交19.82亿元，换手率3.12%，总市值648.07亿 元。 截至发稿，唐军累计任职时间2年293天，现任基金资产总规模2.36亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 20.07%， 任职期间最差基金回报18.74%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，中泰证券资管旗下1只基金重仓云天化。中泰天择稳健6个月持有混合(FOF)A（017589）三 季度持有股数10万股，占基金净值比例为1.13%，位居第一大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约17.4 万元。 中泰天择稳健6个月持有混合(FOF)A（017589）成立日期2023年3月21日，最新规模1.49亿。今年以来收 益16.25%，同类排名479/1034；近一年收益15.81%，同类排名453/1033；成立以来收益20.03%。 中泰天择稳健6个月持有混合(FOF)A（017589）基金经理为唐军。 资料显示，云南云天化股 ...

1月6日，云天化涨5.15%，截至发稿，报35.55元/股，成交19.76亿元，换手率3.11%，总市值648.07亿 元。 从基金十大重仓股角度 资料显示，云南云天化股份有限公司位于云南省昆明市滇池路1417号，成立日期1997年7月2日，上市日 期1997年7月9日，公司主营业务涉及化肥、磷矿采选、有机化工等。主营业务收入构成为：磷肥 27.99%，商品粮食19.87%，复合(混)肥12.51%，尿素10.28%，商贸化肥10.03%，其他5.25%，饲料级磷 酸钙盐4.14%，聚甲醛2.38%，其他商贸物流2.35%，磷矿石1.17%，液氨0.91%，黄磷0.89%，其他(补 充)0.89%，煤炭0.53%，磷酸0.44%，季戊四醇0.38%。 数据显示，兴业基金旗下1只基金重仓云天化。兴业聚丰混合A（002668）三季度持有股数8000股，占 基金净值比例为0.55%，位居第六大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约1.39万元。 兴业聚丰混合A（002668）成立日期2016年7月13日，最新规模2209.14万。今年以来收益0.21%，同类 排名8134/8818；近一年收益6.46%，同类排名6772 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the chemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase from a cyclical bottom, with chemical product price indices expected to stabilize and improve profitability as downstream companies replenish inventory [2] - The China Chemical Industry Association and the Phosphate Fertilizer Association held a meeting to ensure the supply of sulfuric acid resources for phosphate fertilizer production, stabilizing agricultural supply for the spring farming season [1] - Wanhua Chemical has continuously raised global prices for core products such as MDI and TDI since December 2025, in line with international giants like BASF and Dow, driven by industry-wide maintenance and rising raw material costs [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 45.31% of the index, with major companies including Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Industry, and Hengli Petrochemical [2] - The chemical industry is seeing new growth engines from emerging applications in AI, OLED, and robotics, with semiconductor materials expanding due to demand from computing power [2] - The chemical ETF managed by Harvest (159129) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, focusing on the new economic cycle amid the "anti-involution" backdrop [2][3]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.53% and the Chemical Sub-Index increased by 2.43%, with notable stock performances including Junzheng Group up over 8% and Hengli Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical up over 5% [1] - The Chemical ETF by Harvest (159129) increased by 2.49%, reflecting strong performance in the chemical sector [1] - The Venezuelan oil exports have nearly dropped to zero due to U.S. oil sanctions, leading to the state oil company reducing crude production and initiating emergency measures to close some oil fields [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities predicts that the "anti-involution" policy signals will effectively optimize the supply side of the refining and chemical industry [1] - The global external environment is changing rapidly, with significant uncertainties related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, U.S.-Iran relations, and U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - It is expected that the Brent oil price will stabilize between $55-65 per barrel and WTI oil price between $52-62 per barrel by 2026, considering OPEC+'s fiscal balance oil price costs and the high new well costs of U.S. shale oil [1] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Sector Chemical Industry Index, which selects 50 large-cap, liquid chemical companies from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., Tianci Materials, Cangge Mining, Juhua Co., Hualu Hengsheng, Duofu Du, Hengli Petrochemical, Baofeng Energy, and Yuntianhua [2]

据悉，近段时间以来，磷肥原料硫黄价格高位运行，不利于冬储春耕备肥用肥。在此背景下，相关中央 企业统筹自产硫黄资源，向长期合作的重点磷肥生产企业平价销售硫黄，以有效降低磷肥生产成本，夯 实磷肥保供稳价基础。 在此基础上，这些磷肥企业联合提出5点承诺：一是稳定生产。统筹推进生产经营各项工作，加强生产 组织调度，坚决完成最低生产计划任务，确保市场供应充足。二是积极销售。本着"应售即售"的原则， 将所产磷肥快速足量投入市场，坚决不出现囤积惜售、限售搭售等行为，将销售情况全面及时提供给有 关部门。三是稳定价格。当前至2026年春耕结束，保持磷肥售价稳定，坚决不出现哄抬价格、串通涨 价、明稳暗涨等扰乱市场秩序的行为。四是保障储备。加强与相关储备企业的业务合作，所产磷肥优先 供应建储需求，支持相关储备企业以较低成本有序建储，以保障2026年春耕用肥集中需求。五是服务应 急。如出现局部地区磷肥供应紧张、价格不稳情况，立即全力调集本企业资源定向供应，确保全行业保 供稳价工作落到实处。 中化新网讯近日，记者从中国磷复肥工业协会获悉，已有9家磷肥生产企业联合发布承诺书并表示坚决 落实磷肥保供稳价责任，积极践行化肥行业使命担当。 这 ...