技术驱动的增长与周期拖累的亏损同样醒目。 | 作者 | | 迷宫 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编辑 | | 小白 | 本研报基于截至2026年1月26日A股上市公司发布的业绩预告公告，筛选出值得关注的标的。 业绩增速亮眼标的 01 中微公司（688012） 业绩预告类型： 同向上升 • 先进逻辑器件中段 关键刻蚀工艺和先进存储器件超高深宽比刻蚀工艺 实现量产 预告日期：2026年1月23日 预计净利润区间： 208,000万元～218,000万元 同比变化： 增长28.74%～34.93% 核心原因摘要： • 等离子体刻蚀设备在国内外持续获得更多客户的认可，针对先进逻辑和存储器件制造中关键刻蚀工 艺的高端产品新增付运量显著提升 预告日期：2026年1月23日 预计净利润区间： 43,500万元～53,200万元 同比变化： 增长80.36%～120.57% 核心原因摘要： • 市场需求急剧增长，公司 先进产品实现量产 • 公司出售了部分持有的上市公司股票，投资收益增加 亮点/风险点分析： • 亮点： 半导体设备行业龙头，技术壁垒高；受益于AIoT市场快速增长和端侧AI技术创新；营业收 入首 ...

转自：新华财经 紫金矿业"最赚钱" 周期股优势明显 数据显示，602家预计2025年实现盈利的公司中，紫金矿业以520亿元的预告净利上限居首，洛阳钼业以208亿元的预告净利上限紧随其后。 预告盈利规模前10位的上市公司还包括了立讯精密、牧原股份、药明康德、宝丰能源、上汽集团、盐湖股份、招商轮船和华友钴业。其中上汽集团预计净利 同比增长438%-558%，在10家公司中增速排名第一。而牧原股份预计同比净利下滑12.2%-17.79%，是10家公司中唯一一家预计净利出现下滑的公司。 从行业来看，盈利规模前10位公司中有3家有色金属行业公司，分别是紫金矿业、洛阳钼业和华友钴业，再加上化工行业的宝丰能源和盐湖股份，周期股占 比达到一半。 | 代码 名称 | | 净利下限(万元) 净利上限(万元) 增长下限 增长上限 | 浄利同比 浄利同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | | 601899.SH 紫奈矿业 | 5,100,000.00 | 5,200,000.00 | 59.00 | 62.00 | | 603993.SH 洛阳钼亦 | 2 ...

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 27 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 二手房成交回暖，《求是》发文提及城市更新 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/1/17-26/1/23） 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 0.8%、深证成指上升 1.1%、创业板指下跌 0.3%、沪深 300 下 跌 0.6%、房地产（申万）上升 5.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：*ST 荣控(+15.8%)、 顺发恒能(+15.7%)、城投控股(+14.9%)、大悦城(+14.4%)、珠免集团(+12.6%)，涨跌幅后五 的分别为：城建发展(-6.0%)、中洲控股(-2.8%)、电子城(-2.1%)、特发服务(-1.9 ...

（来源：东方资色） 1月23日，金地集团发布2025年度业绩预告显示，预计2025年度净亏损111亿-135亿元；扣除非经常性损益的净亏损100亿-124亿元。 业绩预亏的主要原因，金地集团在公告中表示，公司近年销售规模下降，本年可结转面积较上年减少，营业收入较上年下滑。此外，公司根据市场情况动 态调整经营及销售策略，加大去化力度，使得部分项目存货可变现净值低于成本，基于谨慎性原则计提了存货跌价准备和信用损失准备。 新年第一天，金地集团还发布了一则人事变动公告。1月1日，公司发布公告称，董事会于近日收到董事季彤的书面辞职申请。季彤因工作变动的原因申请 辞去第十届董事会董事、副董事长、董事会战略委员会委员、审计委员会委员及薪酬与考核委员会委员等职务，辞职后不再担任公司任何职务。 （来源：东方资色） 1月23日，金地集团发布2025年度业绩预告显示，预计2025年度净亏损111亿-135亿元；扣除非经常性损益的净亏损100亿-124亿元。 业绩预亏的主要原因，金地集团在公告中表示，公司近年销售规模下降，本年可结转面积较上年减少，营业收入较上年下滑。此外，公司根据市场情况动 态调整经营及销售策略，加大去化力度，使得 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, focus on provinces with large maturity scales of industrial bonds, such as Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, and avoid entities with industry downturns, weakened profitability, and financing channels, or those with non - bond debt risks [2]. - The broad private real estate developers still face challenges, and other industries have a low probability of concentrated risks, but entities with weak competitiveness, significant profit decline, cash - flow pressure, and concentrated debt maturities should be focused on [2]. - For convertible bonds, weak - quality entities with low - priced underlying stocks and high conversion premiums may face difficulties in exiting through conversion, and potential losses should be watched out for [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Bond Market Situation - As of January 6, 2026, the national credit bond balance was 36.18 trillion yuan, with urban investment bonds at 17.73 trillion yuan (49.00%) and industrial bonds at 18.45 trillion yuan (51.00%, down from 54.57% last year) [5]. - Beijing has the largest bond balance, followed by Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term bond maturity ratio at 81.09%, followed by Heilongjiang at 40.39% [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bonds - Since 2023, with a series of policies and measures, the debt pressure of urban investment platforms has been relieved, the issuance cost and credit spread of urban investment bonds have decreased, the financing cost is generally below 3%, and the debt term has been significantly extended [10]. 3. Industrial Bonds Provincial - level Analysis - Excluding urban investment bonds, Beijing has the largest industrial bond scale at over 7 trillion yuan, mainly central - enterprise bonds. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term industrial bond maturity ratio at 82.64%, followed by Tibet, Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Jilin [11]. - Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin have a bond issuance coverage ratio of less than 1 for the next - year's maturity scale, indicating weak refinancing ability [14]. Industry - level Analysis - In 2025, default industries included 12 sectors such as automobile services and real estate development. The industrial holding and power industries have the largest bond balances, over 2 trillion yuan each [15]. - The paper - making, automobile services, medical devices, medical services, and publishing media industries have a short - term debt ratio of over 50%, with poor debt term structures [15]. - Industries with large short - term debt repayment pressures include rail transit, packaging, heating, furniture and home appliances, textiles, automobile services, and information technology [15]. 4. Real Estate Industry - In 2025, the default rate of real estate development entities remained high, with Vanke and Zhengxinglong defaulting. As of January 6, 2026, the real estate development enterprise bond balance was 11,528.76 billion yuan, mainly held by local and central state - owned enterprises [18]. - The short - term bond maturity pressure of public, Sino - foreign joint - venture, and private enterprises is over 40%. The broad private enterprises still face pressure, with an issuance amount of only 234.38 billion yuan in the past year, 76.93% of the next - year's maturity amount [20]. - In 2026, private real estate enterprises to focus on are Longfor and Yida Development [23]. 5. Loss - making Industrial Entities - Large - loss entities (losses over 10 billion yuan in 2024 and still in losses in the first three quarters of 2025) are mainly in the real estate development industry, including state - owned enterprises such as Overseas Chinese Town Group and financial street - related companies, as well as steel giant Ansteel Group [24]. - Entities with losses between 5 and 10 billion yuan involve industries such as electrical equipment, chemical, steel, and airport [26]. 6. ABS Market - From 2023 - 2025, the default rate of CSRC - regulated ABS was 1.10%, 0.77%, and 0.88% respectively. As of January 6, 2026, the ABS balance was 25,021.96 billion yuan, with a one - year maturity amount of 3,541.59 billion yuan (14.15%). The 2025 issuance amount covered the next - year's maturity amount 3.97 times, with good continuation [32]. 7. Convertible Bond Market - Since 2024, the convertible bond repayment risk has increased. As of January 6, 2026, the convertible bond balance was 5553.51 billion yuan, a 22.89% year - on - year decrease. The broad private enterprises accounted for 64.73%, with a relatively large proportion [33]. - Entities such as Anhui Honglu Steel Structure, Shenzhen Huayang International Engineering Design, and Shanghai Kehua Bio - Engineering face large convertible bond repayment pressures, but the conversion mechanism can reduce credit risks to some extent [35]. - Entities such as Dongfang Fashion Driving School, Hainan Pulili Pharmaceutical, and Jiangsu Fumiao Technology, although not facing immediate repayment pressures, have negative information such as business fluctuations, financial fraud, and equity freezes, and their dynamic changes should be continuously monitored [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives aimed at stabilizing the market. The emphasis on "high-quality development" suggests a shift in policy that could lead to positive changes in the industry [3][4]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for quality companies are historically low, making them attractive investment opportunities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first and second-tier cities decreased by 0.6%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 17.7% [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. Year-on-year, January transactions are down by 9.6% [4][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69, indicating a healthy demand relative to new listings. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [4][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights a series of government initiatives aimed at promoting urban renewal, with a focus on addressing key issues such as planning, funding, and operational challenges. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has indicated that there is significant potential for high-quality development in the real estate sector [3][31]. - Specific policies include Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy for enhancing urban quality and development [3][31]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have reported their expected net profits for 2025, with notable figures including China Vanke's bond extension proposal and various financing activities from companies like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [3][41].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The monitored enterprises acquired a total of 30 land parcels with a total transaction amount of 14.5 billion yuan [4] - Brand real estate companies completed 4 financing transactions, totaling 8.44 billion yuan [4] Land Acquisition - In Shanghai, Yuexiu Property secured a residential land parcel in Pudong New District for 4.57 billion yuan, with a floor price of 38,035 yuan/m² [8] - In Huzhou, a residential land parcel was acquired by Deqing County Transportation Engineering Construction Co. for 323 million yuan, with a floor price of 5,954 yuan/m² [9] - In Dalian, a joint venture between Poly and JinDi acquired a site for 736 million yuan, with a floor price of 7,454 yuan/m² [10] - In Wenzhou, Zhongnan Industry secured a residential land parcel for 403 million yuan, with a floor price of 12,582 yuan/m² [11] Investment Financing - Xinjing New Town Development Group successfully issued 440 million yuan in medium-term notes with a 5-year term at an interest rate of 2.7% [12][13] - Lianfa Group issued 250 million yuan in green medium-term notes with a 3+3 year term at an interest rate of 2.6% [15] - Xinda Real Estate received approval for a company bond issuance of 5.75 billion yuan [16] - Shanghai Construction Group successfully issued 2 billion yuan in medium-term notes with a 5+N year term at an interest rate of 2.9% [17] Corporate Dynamics - China Overseas Development signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Sun Hung Kai Properties to deepen collaboration in project construction and other areas [18]

文|隔雾 编辑|隔雾 前言 周五收盘，大盘还在死撑面子，看似风平浪静，谁能料到，灯一关，A股直接上演"百鬼夜行"。 就在昨夜，65家公司扎堆坦白罪行，4个曾经浓眉大眼的行业龙头，联手烧掉了500亿真金白银，这还不算完，还有3家公司直接领了"死亡通知书"。 指数在假装坚挺，个股却在疯狂截肢，这哪是什么年报预告？这分明是针对散户钱包的深夜屠杀。 豪门崩塌 这一夜，不知道多少人盯着账户里冰冷的代码，彻夜难眠，这潭水，深不见底，小公司亏损顶多算擦破皮，巨头暴雷那是直接割断了大动脉。 看看这份淌血的榜单：红星美凯龙、金地集团、建发股份。 昔日的"地产系"三兄弟，如今成了比惨大会的领头羊，美凯龙，预亏上限225亿；金地，135亿；建发，100亿。 光这三家挥霍掉的钱，就足够买下一个中型板块，尤其是红星美凯龙，当年可是家居界的"扛把子"，中产阶级眼里的香饽饽。 试想一下昨晚的场景：你颤抖着手点开那份PDF，期待的分红没看见，只见一个刺眼的负号，后面跟着一串长得让人眼晕的数字，225亿。 那一刻，手里的热茶瞬间结冰，屏幕上跳动的哪里是数字，分明是无数家庭资产大厦崩塌时，钢筋崩断的脆响。 理由？公告写得冠冕堂皇："计提减值"、 ...

证券代码：600383 证券简称：金地集团 公告编号：2026-007 本次会议由公司董事会召集，董事长徐家俊先生主持会议；本次会议以现场投票与网络投票相结合的方 式进行表决；本次会议的召集、召开和表决方式符合《公司法》等法律、法规及规范性文件和《公司章 程》的有关规定。 （五）公司董事和董事会秘书的列席情况 1.公司在任董事10人，列席9人，董事徐倩先生因公务未列席本次会议； 2.董事会秘书胡学文女士及其他高级管理人员列席本次会议。 二、议案审议情况 金地（集团）股份有限公司 2026年第一次临时股东会决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ■ （四）表决方式是否符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定，会议主持情况等。 （一）非累积投票议案 1.议案名称：关于补选公司第十届董事会董事的议案 审议结果：通过 表决情况： ■ （二）涉及重大事项，5%以下股东的表决情况 ■ （三）关于议案表决的有关情况说明 不适用 三、律师见证情况 ● 本次会议是否有否决议案：无 一、会议召开和出席情况 （一）股东会 ...