证券研究报告 | 2024年05月07日 国电南瑞（600406.SH） 买入 业绩稳健增长，提高分红彰显发展信心 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 全年业绩实现两位数增长，现金分红比例显著提高。23年公司实现营业收入 电力设备·电网设备 515.73亿元（同比+10.13%），归母净利润71.84亿元（同比+11.44%）。全 证券分析师：王蔚祺 证券分析师：王晓声 年销售毛利率26.80%（同比-0.25pct.）。公司拟派发现金红利43.3亿元， 010-88005313 010-88005231 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cnwangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn 占归母净利润60.3%，较20-22年明显提升；此外公司发布24年半年度利润 S0980520080003 S0980523050002 分配方案。 基础数据 二次业务量利齐增，新能源带动低碳业务快速发展。23年公司智能电网板块 投资评级 买入(维持) 合理估值 收入256.4亿元，同比+2.57%，毛利率28.91%，同比+0.98pct.；数能融合 收盘价 23.14元 总市值/流通市值 185880/18 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月07日 国电南瑞（600406.SH） 买入 业绩稳健增长，提高分红彰显发展信心 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 全年业绩实现两位数增长，现金分红比例显著提高。23年公司实现营业收入 电力设备·电网设备 515.73亿元（同比+10.13%），归母净利润71.84亿元（同比+11.44%）。全 证券分析师：王蔚祺 证券分析师：王晓声 年销售毛利率26.80%（同比-0.25pct.）。公司拟派发现金红利43.3亿元， 010-88005313 010-88005231 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cnwangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn 占归母净利润60.3%，较20-22年明显提升；此外公司发布24年半年度利润 S0980520080003 S0980523050002 分配方案。 基础数据 二次业务量利齐增，新能源带动低碳业务快速发展。23年公司智能电网板块 投资评级 买入(维持) 合理估值 收入256.4亿元，同比+2.57%，毛利率28.91%，同比+0.98pct.；数能融合 收盘价 23.14元 总市值/流通市值 185880/18 ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年5月6日 600406.SH 国电南瑞 买入 电网龙头业绩稳健，海外网外增长强劲 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 23.54 公司发布2023年年报与2024年一季报，业绩分别同比增长11.44%/13.69%。 板块评级:强于大市 公司经营业绩稳步增长，网外业务贡献增长新动能。维持买入评级。 支撑评级的要点  2023年/2024Q1公司业绩同比增长11.44%/13.69%：公司发布2023年年 股价表现 报，实现收入515.73亿元，同比增长10.13%；实现归母净利润71.84亿 21% 元，同比增长11.44%；实现扣非净利润69.5亿元，同比增长10.43%。公 12% 司同时发布 2024 年一季报，2024Q1 实现收入 76.99 亿元，同比增长 4% 24.25%；归母净利润5.96亿元，同比增长13.69%。 (4%)  受益于电网投资提升，智能电网业务稳步增长：2023 年公司智能电网业 (12%) 务实现收入256.35亿元，同比增长2.57%，毛利率同比增加0.98个百分 (20%) 点至 28.91%。2023 年我国电 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for NARI Technology [2][20]. Core Views - NARI Technology's revenue and net profit growth rates meet expectations, with a revenue of RMB 51.57 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.13%, and a net profit of RMB 7.184 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.44%. In Q1 2024, revenue reached RMB 7.7 billion, up 24.25% year-on-year, and net profit was RMB 596 million, up 13.7% year-on-year [16][20]. - The company is expected to benefit from the high prosperity of ultra-high voltage (UHV) construction, with plans to start five DC and two AC UHV lines in 2024 [18][20]. - NARI's off-grid business is developing well, with new contracts signed worth RMB 58.287 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.64%, and a recovery in international business [19][20]. Financial Performance - The comprehensive gross profit margin was 26.80% in 2023, slightly down by 0.24 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for power grid dispatch automation increased by 2.07 percentage points to 28.91% [16][20]. - R&D expenses were RMB 2.712 billion in 2023, up 13.92% year-on-year, exceeding the revenue growth rate [17][20]. - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 58.18 billion, RMB 65.77 billion, and RMB 73.82 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of RMB 8.3 billion, RMB 10 billion, and RMB 11.6 billion [20].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/机械工业/电气设备 证券研究报告 国电南瑞（600406）公司年报点评 2024年05月05日 [Table_InvestInfo] 业绩稳健增长，有望深度受益特高压建设 投资评级 优于大市 维持 及配网高质量发展 股票数据 0[4T月ab3le0_日S收to盘ck价（In元fo）] 23.54 [Table_Summary] 52周股价波动（元） 20.08-28.50 投资要点： 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 8033/7984 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 189093/187955  2023年营收同比增10.13%，归母净利润同比增11.44%。2023年，公司实 相关研究 现营收515.73亿元，同比增10.13%；综合毛利率26.80%，同比降0.25pct； [《Ta业b绩le稳_R健e增p长or，tI深nf度o受] 益于直流特高压加速 归母净利润71.84亿元，同比增长11.44%。 推进》2023.11.23 我们认为，公司归母净利润增速高于收入增速主要源于：受结构性存款银行 《一季度业绩快速增长，深度受益于直流特高 压加速推进》2023.05.0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 51.57 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.18 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year [2][3] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 7.7 billion yuan, a 24.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 600 million yuan, growing 13.7% year-on-year [2] - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profitability but maintains high R&D investment, with a R&D expense ratio of 5.3% in 2023, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The smart grid segment generated revenue of 25.64 billion yuan in 2023, a 2.6% increase, while overseas business revenue surged by 104.1% to 1.39 billion yuan [2] - The digital energy integration business grew by 21.7% to 11.13 billion yuan in 2023, and the low-carbon energy segment saw a 33.5% increase in revenue to 9.64 billion yuan [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 51.57 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.18 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 26.8% and a net margin of 14.8% [2][3] - For 2024-2026, projected revenues are 58.52 billion yuan, 65.43 billion yuan, and 71.69 billion yuan, with net profit growth rates of 12.1%, 12.5%, and 14.5% respectively [3][11] Business Segments - Smart Grid: Revenue of 25.64 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 8% for 2024-2026 [9] - Digital Energy Integration: Revenue of 11.13 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 20% for 2024 [9] - Low-Carbon Energy: Revenue of 9.64 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 25% for 2024 [9] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading provider of integrated smart grid solutions and digital energy services, benefiting from increased demand in both domestic and international markets [2][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of stock price increase relative to the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [4][14]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated robust growth in both domestic and international operations, achieving a revenue of 51.573 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.13%, and a net profit of 7.184 billion yuan, up 11.44% year-on-year [3][8]. - The establishment of two wholly-owned subsidiaries aims to expand into key strategic areas such as IT infrastructure and renewable energy, aligning with national development priorities [8]. - The company has a strong order backlog of 49.852 billion yuan, with new orders signed amounting to 27.427 billion yuan, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [3][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - 2023 revenue was 51.573 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.184 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.13% and 11.44% respectively [2][3]. - The company expects revenues to grow to 58.082 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits projected at 8.144 billion yuan [2][8]. - **Segment Performance**: - Smart grid revenue was 25.635 billion yuan, up 2.57%; digital energy integration revenue was 11.134 billion yuan, up 21.73%; low-carbon energy revenue was 9.638 billion yuan, up 33.47% [3]. - **Cost Management**: - Sales, management, and R&D expenses were 2.085 billion yuan, 1.267 billion yuan, and 2.712 billion yuan respectively, showing increases of 18.59%, 10.78%, and 13.92% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with projected revenues of 67.002 billion yuan and net profits of 9.110 billion yuan by 2025 [2][8]. - The establishment of subsidiaries is anticipated to enhance the company's capabilities in emerging sectors, potentially driving further revenue growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [2]. Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in 2023, with operating revenue reaching 51.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.13%, and a net profit of 7.184 billion yuan, up 11.44% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.4 yuan per 10 shares [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased investment in the power grid, with China's power grid construction investment reaching 527.5 billion yuan in 2023, a 5.4% increase year-on-year. The company's smart grid business generated revenue of 25.635 billion yuan, growing 2.57% year-on-year [1]. - The company secured new contracts worth 58.287 billion yuan in 2023, a 12.64% increase year-on-year, indicating a strong growth momentum in its core business [1]. - The company is expanding its business in energy digitalization, with revenue from digital energy integration reaching 11.134 billion yuan, a 21.73% increase year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 51.573 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.184 billion yuan. The first quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 7.699 billion yuan, a 24.25% increase year-on-year, but a significant quarter-on-quarter decrease of 80.29% [1][2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.03 yuan, with net profits expected to grow to 8.312 billion yuan in 2024 [2][5]. Business Development - The company is a leader in the smart grid sector, benefiting from ongoing investments in the power grid. The smart grid business's gross margin increased to 28.91% in 2023 [1]. - The company is actively expanding its international presence, securing significant contracts in countries like Chile, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from increased investments in the power grid and the acceleration of digitalization in the energy sector. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 8.312 billion yuan, 9.523 billion yuan, and 10.511 billion yuan, respectively [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 51.573 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.184 billion, up 11.44% year-on-year for 2023. The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 7.699 billion, a significant year-on-year growth of 24.25% [1] - The company is benefiting from the low-carbon energy transition and the integration of digital energy, with steady growth in smart grid development. The smart grid segment generated 25.635 billion in revenue, accounting for 49.71% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 2.57% [1] - The company has expanded its overseas business significantly, achieving a revenue of 1.394 billion from international markets, which is a 104.07% increase year-on-year [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 51.573 billion, with a net profit of 7.184 billion and an EPS of 0.89. The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 7.699 billion and a net profit of 0.596 billion [1][4] - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 26.80%, slightly down by 0.25 percentage points year-on-year. The first quarter of 2024 saw a gross margin of 24.68%, down 2.43 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.95 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Business Segments - Smart Grid: Revenue of 25.635 billion, contributing 49.71% to total revenue, with a gross margin of 28.91% [1] - Digital Energy Integration: Revenue of 11.134 billion, accounting for 21.59% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 22.38% [1] - Low-Carbon Energy: Revenue of 9.638 billion, representing 18.49% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 33.47% year-on-year [1] - Industrial Internet: Revenue of 3.169 billion, contributing 6.14% to total revenue, with a slight decline of 3.01% year-on-year [1] Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the structural investment changes driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with projected revenues of 57.350 billion and 64.502 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively [1] - The company is positioned to capture significant growth opportunities in various sectors, including new energy, rail transit, and municipal projects, with a competitive edge against international leaders like ABB and Siemens [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 and Q1 2024 met market expectations, with revenue growth of 10% year-on-year in 2023 and 24% in Q1 2024. The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 11% year-on-year in 2023 and 14% in Q1 2024 [6][7] - The company plans to achieve a revenue target of 56 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 8.6% year-on-year growth, with a stable gross margin of 26.8% [6] - The company is experiencing accelerated growth in its non-grid business, with revenue from this segment increasing by 35% year-on-year in 2023 [6] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 51.573 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.13%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.184 billion yuan, up 11.44% year-on-year [1][6] - The company reported a gross margin of 26.8% in 2023, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for 2023 was 13.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 11.444 billion yuan, reflecting a 31% year-on-year increase, indicating strong cash flow [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue of 57.494 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 11.48%. The net profit is expected to reach 7.902 billion yuan, growing by 10.01% year-on-year [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.98 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.60 based on the current price [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 25.18 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 202.27 billion yuan [3] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 4.25 and a total circulating A-share market value of approximately 201.05 billion yuan [3][4]