二月交易日刚开启，大A就跌懵了，主要指数均跌超2%。 今日特高压板块逆势上涨，电网设备ETF(159326)放量上涨1.33%，年初至今累计上涨近18%。 板块轮动，开始了吗？ 01 订单排到两年后 周末消息非常多。 首先，也是关注度最高的，即国际黄金和白银价格遭遇史诗级暴跌，均创下数十年最大单日跌幅。 | | | 金属期货表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)1 | | -13 | aq2604 | 沪银2604 | 24832 | -17.00% | | 2 | pd2606 | #2606 | 413.70 | -16.00% | | ਤੇ | pt2606 | 铝2606 | 552.15 | -16.00% | | র্ব | au2604 | 沪金2604 | 1008.60 | -15.73% | | રે | Ic2605 | 英语:2605 | 132440 | -13.99% | | 6 | ni2603 | 沪煌2603 | 129650 | -11.00% | | 7 | sn2603 | 沪铝 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **grid and electrical equipment** sector, particularly in the context of global investment trends and structural demand drivers across regions including **China, ASEAN, the US, and the EU** [2][3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Structural Upcycle**: Analysts believe the current upcycle in grid equipment is structural rather than cyclical, supported by high manufacturing utilization and multi-year order visibility across **APAC** [3][10]. - **Investment Needs**: Global grid investment reached approximately **$450 billion** in 2025, but this is still below the estimated **$1 trillion** needed annually by 2050 to meet demand [4]. - **Aging Infrastructure**: About **45%** of global grid assets are over **20 years old**, with significant replacement needs emerging, particularly in the US where the average transformer is around **40 years old** [4][10]. - **OEM Backlogs**: Equipment suppliers are experiencing unprecedented demand, with average selling prices for transformers increasing by approximately **75%** since 2019, and high-voltage cable costs nearly doubling [5][10]. Regional Developments - **China**: The 15th Five-Year Plan mandates a record investment of **RMB 4 trillion** by 2030, a **40%** increase from previous plans, focusing on high-voltage expansion to support renewable energy [7]. - **ASEAN**: Leaders have agreed to accelerate the ASEAN Power Grid, aiming to double cross-border capacity by 2040, supported by an **$800 billion** financing initiative [7]. - **US**: Federal programs, including a **$65 billion** grid modernization fund, are pushing utilities to enhance and expand networks [7]. - **Europe**: The European Commission has introduced a new Grid Package requiring **€584 billion** in transmission investment by 2030 [7]. Capacity and Constraints - Manufacturing capacity for grid equipment is tight across APAC, with Japan operating at nearly **100%** utilization. Expansion plans are in place, but skilled labor shortages and input constraints remain significant challenges [12]. - Orderbooks are strong, particularly in Korea, where companies report **30%** year-over-year growth in orderbooks, with lead times extending to **3-4 years** [13]. Pricing Dynamics - Anticipated price increases in China due to potential tariff adjustments in the 2026 regulatory cycle are expected to support average selling price hikes and margin expansion [14]. - Japan's Hitachi aims to increase EBITDA margins from **13-15%** to **16-20%** by FY30, indicating a focus on disciplined pricing and higher-value products [14]. Demand Drivers - Demand is driven by a multi-year structural grid upgrade cycle across APAC, with significant needs for replacement and modernization of aging infrastructure, as well as the integration of digital automation and smart grid technologies [15][16]. Investment Recommendations - Companies positioned at the core of structural grid equipment demands, such as **NARI Technology**, **Hitachi**, and **Hyundai Electric**, are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the ongoing investment cycle [18][19]. - NARI Technology is particularly noted for its alignment with China's domestic grid investment priorities, with expectations of sustained pricing uplift and market share gains [18]. Conclusion - The combination of aging infrastructure, rising demand from renewable energy, and the need for modernization and digitalization in grid systems suggests a robust growth outlook for the grid equipment sector across APAC, with favorable pricing power and earnings durability anticipated [10][11].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on China's power grid equipment sector, with a bullish outlook on grid capital expenditure (CAPEX) growth, projected at an 11% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2026-2030, up from a previous estimate of 9% [2][10][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **CAPEX Growth Drivers**: - The State Grid's Rmb4 trillion investment plan under the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) indicates a 7% CAPEX CAGR [3][15]. - Historical data shows that actual grid investments during previous FYPs exceeded initial targets by 2-18%, suggesting potential for similar outcomes in the future [3][15]. - Structural factors such as electrification, energy security, and the integration of renewables are increasing the urgency for grid reinforcement [7][20]. - **Pricing Upside**: - Anticipated increases in transmission and distribution (T&D) tariffs starting in 2026 could enhance grid economics, with each Rmb0.01/kWh increase potentially generating Rmb634 billion in pre-tax profit over the 2026-2030 period, equating to 14% of total grid CAPEX during the 15th FYP [3][20]. - **Earnings Revisions**: - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised from -31% to +18%, reflecting stronger volume outlooks and improved pricing [4][32]. - NARI Technology is highlighted as a top pick, with expected earnings growth of 22% CAGR, driven by its alignment with State Grid's CAPEX growth [4][32]. Key Companies and Their Performance - **NARI Technology (600406.SS)**: - Price target raised from Rmb28.00 to Rmb42.00, with EPS revisions indicating a 7-16% increase for 2026-2027 [32][35]. - The smart grid and energy digitalization segments are expected to drive revenue growth [33]. - **Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric (601567.SS)**: - Price target increased from Rmb30.00 to Rmb39.10, but EPS forecasts were trimmed by 25% due to weaker revenue and margins [41][44]. - The power equipment segment is expected to recover with a projected 20% YoY increase in average selling prices (ASP) in 2026 [44]. - **Willfar Information Technology (688100.SS)**: - Price target raised from Rmb45.00 to Rmb64.00, with EPS revisions up by 4% for 2026 and 11% for 2027, driven by grid investment acceleration [48]. Valuation Insights - Key power grid equipment stocks are trading at an average forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23x, below the historical average of 24x and the peak of 40x [2][28]. - Domestic-focused stocks have underperformed export-driven peers by 191 percentage points since January 2025, indicating potential for re-rating as domestic CAPEX growth becomes more apparent [7][28]. Additional Important Points - The market currently underestimates the potential for domestic grid CAPEX growth, which could lead to significant earnings upgrades and valuation re-ratings across the sector [27][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of investor positioning, which is currently skewed towards export-driven stocks, suggesting a potential rotation towards domestically focused names as CAPEX surprises materialize [7][28]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the power grid equipment sector in China, highlighting the expected growth in CAPEX, pricing dynamics, and the performance of specific companies within the industry.

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 28 January 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Power Equipment Expert call takeaways on 15th FYP grid capex; Nari Tech and Sieyuan Electric our top picks in 1H26 The share prices of China po ...

在推动能源绿色转型方面，现货、中长期市场价格信号反映了不同时段、不同区域的电力供需关系，让 新能源在电力供应充足时段的环境价值、高峰时段的保供价值得到充分体现；辅助服务市场则进一步完 善了调节资源的价值实现机制，激励调节资源积极参与系统调节。 2025年，跨电网经营区常态化电力交易机制建立，在国家电网、南方电网分别组织电力交易的基础上， 建立了"网上电力商城"，保障全国统一电力市场体系高效运行。迎峰度夏期间，南方区域首次送电支援 上海、浙江、安徽；10月，国家电网与南方电网首次以现货交易形式实现跨区电力调配。 三是绿色电力交易电量迅猛增长，达3285亿千瓦时，同比增长38.3%，规模达到2022年的18倍，多年期 绿电协议成交电量达600亿千瓦时，跨经营区常态化交易机制首次实现大湾区用户用上内蒙古绿电、长 三角用户引入广西绿电。同时，新能源全面参与市场，在交易中心注册的经营主体数量突破100万家。 全国统一电力市场体系为推进新型电力系统建设和经济社会发展提供了重要支持，发挥了多重作用。在 跨地区资源优化方面，西部丰富的清洁能源、北部充足的火电资源能够精准对接东部沿海、南部负荷中 心的用电需求，有效缓解了不同地 ...

创新成果的不断出现得益于从制度层面激发创新活力。前不久，一支青年创新队伍来到山东济南，更新 调试虚拟电厂运营服务平台。该工作室成员平均年龄不到33岁，带头人金玉龙从清华大学毕业后就入职 南瑞集团，一心扑在"虚拟电厂"上已6年有余。"科研的前期投入大、成果产出周期长。我们用'里程碑 +长周期'的激励机制，鼓励青年科研人员把'冷板凳'坐热。"南瑞集团组织部副主任于昆介绍。 "2021年，初代产品刚完成，团队就获得了荣誉称号；2022年，产品测试上线，尚未完全实现产业化， 我个人就获得褒奖以及第二批股权激励。"金玉龙回忆。该团队研发的虚拟电厂产品已在20多个省份推 广应用，相关技术成果获得中国电力企业联合会2025年度电力创新奖一等奖。 在南瑞集团，多元激励机制改革已成为干事创业的重要内驱力。以"贡献者受益"为价值导向，"一业一 策""一企一策"定制考核分配方案，保障业绩与薪酬同步增长。对科技型企业实施股权与分红激励，让 核心骨干与企业共享发展成果，持续激发干事创业的内生动力。 何以破局开路？"重组南瑞研究院，强化前沿技术瞭望和应用基础研究；整合成立研发中心，着眼应用 技术，提升共性平台支撑能力；优化整合各专业公司 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the proactive measures taken by State Grid Electric Power Research Institute (NARI Group) to enhance the stability and efficiency of the power grid through advanced technologies and reforms [1][2][3] - NARI Group is accelerating the implementation of "scientific reform actions" and deepening state-owned enterprise reforms to promote breakthroughs in key areas [1] - The company has established seven specialized research teams and seven "ten-year sword" teams, adopting a flat organizational structure to focus on solving industry pain points [2] Group 2 - By 2025, NARI Group is expected to have accumulated 171 provincial and ministerial-level scientific and technological awards, with 10 projects recognized as major technological equipment in the energy sector [2] - The company has implemented a multi-dimensional incentive mechanism to stimulate innovation, ensuring that performance and compensation grow in tandem [3] - NARI Group is expanding its focus beyond traditional power systems into energy internet and industrial internet sectors, aiming to cultivate a "second growth curve" [3]

国家知识产权局信息显示，华能会理风力发电有限公司、北京华能新锐控制技术有限公司、华能新能源 股份有限公司、国电南瑞科技股份有限公司取得一项名为"一种模拟量板卡及模拟量采集方法"的专利， 授权公告号CN120801795B，申请日期为2025年9月。 天眼查资料显示，华能会理风力发电有限公司，成立于2020年，位于凉山彝族自治州，是一家以从事电 力、热力生产和供应业为主的企业。企业注册资本120672.7539万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，华 能会理风力发电有限公司参与招投标项目222次，专利信息76条，此外企业还拥有行政许可26个。 来源：市场资讯 华能新能源股份有限公司，成立于2002年，位于北京市，是一家以从事电力、热力生产和供应业为主的 企业。企业注册资本1243121.4343万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，华能新能源股份有限公司共对外 投资了724家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息1条，专利信息804条，此外企业 还拥有行政许可32个。 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司，成立于2001年，位于南京市，是一家以从事软件和信息技术服务业为主的 企业。企业注册资本803208.8259万人 ...

- The report primarily focuses on the investment value of the "恒生A股电网设备指数" (HSCAUPG.HI), which is a thematic index designed to reflect the performance of China's A-share listed companies in the power grid equipment sector. The index was launched on February 28, 2022, and its methodology includes selecting companies with at least 40% of their revenue derived from energy infrastructure, power equipment, industrial components, and intelligent technologies. The index is weighted by free-float market capitalization, with a cap of 10% per constituent stock[37][38][39] - The index underwent a significant revision in 2025, reducing the number of constituent stocks from 100 to 50, focusing more on downstream power grid equipment manufacturing. This adjustment enhanced the index's purity and representation of the modernization and specialization of China's power grid equipment sector[37][38][39] - The index's sectoral distribution is highly concentrated, with approximately 70% allocated to power grid equipment, 13% to communication equipment, and smaller proportions to automotive components, metal materials, wind power equipment, and other industries. This structure ensures a strong focus on the modernization of power grid infrastructure, automation, and digitalization[39][41][42] - The index's internal structure is dominated by high-tech and high-certainty segments, such as transmission and transformation equipment (31% weight) and power grid automation equipment (21% weight). These segments benefit from China's "十五五" strategic planning, which emphasizes the construction of ultra-high voltage backbone networks, upgrades to main grid systems, and the integration of renewable energy bases[39][41][43] - The index has demonstrated strong performance, with a cumulative return of 335.48% since its base date, significantly outperforming the申万电网设备行业指数 (151.41%) and the上证指数 (64.96%). It exhibits high returns, moderate volatility, and superior risk-adjusted returns, with a Sharpe ratio of 4.42 over the past year and consistently above 1.0 over longer periods[55][56][58]