Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 11.99 CNY per share [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.61 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.33 billion CNY, up 40.2% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 22.9% [1]. - The company's main business profit for Q3 2024 was approximately 994 million CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of over 108%, driven by rental income growth from the chinagoods platform and the steady progress of the global digital trade center [1]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 14.61 billion CNY, 16.97 billion CNY, and 19.68 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.99 billion CNY, 3.34 billion CNY, and 4.14 billion CNY [1]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 30.1%, an increase of 11.30 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio decreased by 1.09 percentage points, while the R&D expense ratio was 1.0%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company's operating income for 2022 was 7.62 billion CNY, which increased to 11.3 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 48.3%. The projected growth rates for the next three years are 29.3%, 16.1%, and 16.0% respectively [2][3]. - The company's net profit for 2023 was 2.68 billion CNY, with an expected growth rate of 11.7% for 2024 and 11.8% for 2025 [2][3]. Profitability and Valuation - The company is projected to have an EPS of 0.55 CNY in 2024, increasing to 0.61 CNY in 2025 and 0.75 CNY in 2026. The P/E ratio is expected to be 21.17 in 2024, decreasing to 15.29 by 2026 [2][3]. - The report suggests a reasonable valuation of 11.99 CNY per share based on comparable company valuations, supporting the "Buy" rating [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant performance exceeding expectations, with a 177% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.613 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.25%, and a net profit of 2.329 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.53% [2]. - The company's gross merchandise volume (GMV) on the Chinagoods platform decreased by 23% in Q3 2024, while the payment transaction volume of Yiwupay increased by 515% [2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.791 billion yuan, 3.138 billion yuan, and 4.570 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 12.4%, and 45.6% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.17%, and a net profit of 881 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 176.73% [2]. - The company's net profit margin increased by 11.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30.10%, up by 9.54 percentage points [2]. - The company plans to increase rental prices by no less than 5% annually from 2024 to 2026, contributing to revenue growth [2]. - The company has a stable rental income base and is expanding its market presence, with new business opportunities expected to drive growth [2].

证券代码：600415 证券简称：小商品城 浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-009 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|------------------------|------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | □ | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | | □ 媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | 投资者关系活动类别 | □新闻发布会 √路演活动 | | | | □ 现场参观 √电话会议 | | | | □ | 其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称 | | 民生加银基金管理有限公司、浙商基金管理有限公司、国联 | | | | 基金管理有限公司、南方基金管理股份有限公司、嘉实基金 | | | | 管理有限公司、大成基金管理有限公司、银华基金管理股份 | | | | 有限公司、建信基金管理有限责任公司、恒越基金管理有限 | | | | 公司、交银施罗德基金管理有限公司、兴华基金管理有限公 | | | | 司、天治基金 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Hold" [8] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 3.85 billion yuan, up 40.2% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 176.7% to 880 million yuan [1][2] - The strong performance is attributed to the expansion of product sales and improved market operating profits [1] - The main business profit for Q3 2024 was approximately 994 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 108% [3] - The transaction volume of Yiwu Pay saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 770%, with over 20 billion yuan in cross-border payment transactions added from January to September 2024 [3] Financial Performance Summary - Cumulative revenue for the year reached 10.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.33 billion yuan, up 0.5% [2] - Basic and diluted earnings per share both reached 0.16 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 166.7% [2] - The company expects revenues of 14.1 billion yuan, 15.7 billion yuan, and 17 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 3.1 billion yuan, 3.7 billion yuan, and 3.9 billion yuan for the same years [8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is 27.17, with projected ratios of 19.02, 16.09, and 15.06 for the next three years [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Hold" [8] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 3.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising to 880 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 176.7% [1] - The overall performance from the beginning of the year to the end of the reporting period was solid, with cumulative revenue of 10.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2] - The main business profit saw a substantial increase, with Yiwu Pay's transaction volume growing by 770% year-on-year [3] Business Analysis - The main business profit for Q3 2024 was approximately 994 million yuan, up 108% from 477 million yuan in Q3 2023 [3] - The Chinagoods platform's GMV exceeded 60.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16% [3] - The cross-border payment business under Yiwu Pay added over 20 billion yuan in transaction volume from January to September 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 770% [3] Financial Performance - The company’s basic and diluted earnings per share reached 0.16 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 166.7%, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [2] - The projected revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 14.1 billion yuan, 15.7 billion yuan, and 17.0 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 3.1 billion yuan, 3.7 billion yuan, and 3.9 billion yuan [8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is 27.17, with projected P/E ratios for the next three years being 19.02, 16.09, and 15.06 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 14.79 CNY from the previous 11.46 CNY [5][15]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 177%, exceeding previous expectations, driven by growth in both offline and online sales [5][6]. - The report forecasts EPS growth of 5%, 14%, and 25% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 29 times [6][15]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters, the company reported revenue of 10.61 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, and a net profit of 2.33 billion CNY, up 0.5% [6]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 3.85 billion CNY, marking a 40.2% increase, while net profit soared to 881 million CNY, reflecting a 177% growth [6]. - The gross margin improved to 32%, up 4.9 percentage points, and the net profit margin reached 19.6%, up 4 percentage points [6]. Market and Business Outlook - The company benefits from the high demand in Yiwu's export market, with total import and export value increasing by 17.2% year-on-year [6]. - The cross-border payment business has seen significant growth, with transaction volume exceeding 20 billion CNY, up over 770% [6]. - The report highlights the potential of the company's new market initiatives and platforms, which are expected to enhance revenue and profit growth [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][9]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit of 176.73% year-on-year for Q3 2024, with a total revenue of 3.847 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 40.17% [6][9]. - The company is expected to enter a new expansion cycle in its market business, with new business segments gradually contributing to profits and having substantial monetization potential [7][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.17%. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 10.613 billion yuan, up 34.25% year-on-year [6][10]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters increased by 4.90 percentage points to 32%, with Q3 2024 gross margin rising by 9.54 percentage points to 30.10% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 881 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 176.73%, with a main business profit growth exceeding 108% [6][10]. Business Segments - The Chinagoods platform's GMV exceeded 60.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a growth of over 16%. The Yiwu Pay cross-border payment business transaction volume surpassed 20 billion yuan, growing over 770% [6][9]. Future Outlook - The company has updated its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 2.981 billion yuan, 3.199 billion yuan, and 4.480 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.4%, 7.3%, and 40.1% [9][14]. - The estimated reasonable market capitalization range for the company is between 66 billion yuan and 78.4 billion yuan, with a target stock price range of 12.03 to 14.30 yuan per share [9][13].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·一般零售 小商品城（600415） 2024年三季报点评：Q3归母净利同增177%， 主业利润同比高增 2024 年 10 月 15 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7620 | 11300 | 15580 | 19309 | 23581 | | 同比（ % ） | 26.28 | 48.30 | 37.88 | 23.94 | 22.12 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1105 | 2676 | 3126 | 3616 | 4235 | | 同比（ % ） | (17.19) | 142.25 | 16.79 | 15.68 | 17.14 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.20 | 0.49 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年10月15日 小商品城（600415.SH） 优于大市 三季度归母净利润增长 177%，新兴业务继续成长 三季度归母净利润增长 177%，新兴业务规模持续增长。公司 2024 前三季度 营收106.13亿元，同比增长34.25%，归母净利润23.29亿元，同比增长0.53%， 收入和利润增长差异主要系投资收益及资产处置收益较去年减少影响。单三 季度实现营收 38.47 亿元，同比增长 40.17%，归母净利润 8.81 亿元，同比 增长 176.73%，其中主营业务利润三季度约 9.94 亿元，同比增长超 108%。 受益于公司数字化贸易服务能力提升下带来的涨租及选位费增加等，同时新 兴业务持续贡献增量。 新兴业务中，公司前三季度 Chinagoods 平台 GMV 超 608 亿元，同比增长超 16%；支付业务前三季度新增跨境支付业务交易额超 200 亿人民币，同比增 长超 770%。 毛利率继续提升，费用率优化。公司三季度毛利率 30.1%，同比+9.54pct， 受益租金动态上浮及服务能力提升。三季度销售费用率 0.98%，同比基本平 稳；管理费用率 3.11%，同比-1.0 ...

一、监事会会议召开情况 证券代码：600415 证券简称：小商品城 公告编号：临 2024-042 浙江中国小商品城集团股份有限公司 第九届监事会第十次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 二、监事会会议审议情况 （一）审议通过了《2024 年第三季度报告》 表决结果：5 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权。 声明如下：本人作为监事已经全文阅读《2024 年第三季度报告》，并保证本报 告所载内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实 性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 监事会对 2024 年第三季度报告审核意见如下： （一）本次监事会的召开方式、程序均符合相关法律、法规、规章和《公司 章程》的要求。 1、2024 年第三季度报告编制和审议程序符合法律、法规、公司章程和公司内 部管理制度的各项规定； （二）本次监事会的会议通知及材料于 2024 年 10 月 9 日以传真、电子邮件、 书面材料等方式送达全体监事。 2、2024 年第三季度报告内容和格式符合中国证监会和证券交易所 ...