Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The probiotic market in China is expected to exceed 140 billion CNY by 2025, with a CAGR of 12.4% from 2019 to 2024 [11][12] - The second-generation probiotics, such as AKK strains, show significant advantages over first-generation probiotics, which are primarily preventive and transient [12][13] - The competitive landscape indicates that leading brands are facing pressure, while second and third-tier brands are rising, particularly through online channels [15][20] Summary by Sections Probiotic Market Overview - The C-end probiotic market in China is projected to grow from 647.7 billion CNY in 2018 to 1188.5 billion CNY in 2023, with a CAGR of 12.4% [11] - The gastrointestinal probiotic market is expected to reach 310 billion CNY by 2024, with a CAGR of 12% from 2019 to 2024 [11] Competitive Landscape - Leading brands like WonderLab and Life Space have seen a slight decline in market share, with WonderLab's GMV on Tmall and Douyin at 1.36 billion CNY in 2025, down 4.5% year-on-year [15] - Second and third-tier brands, such as Jiangzhong and Purmeo, have gained market share, increasing by over 2% [15] - The product offerings are evolving from basic probiotics to "probiotic+" series, indicating a shift towards more complex formulations [20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with strong organizational structures and management capabilities in the beauty care sector, such as Maogeping and Shangmei [28] - In the gold and jewelry sector, it suggests focusing on brands with strong pricing power and craftsmanship, recommending Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [28] - For the cross-border e-commerce sector, it highlights the potential of companies like Xiaoshangpin City and Jiaodian Technology due to easing trade conflicts and AI integration [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the retail industry, indicating a potential return exceeding 5% relative to market benchmarks [8][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are rapidly evolving, with 2026 expected to mark a commercial turning point for the industry. Key developments include significant IPOs and strategic acquisitions in the AI sector, which are anticipated to drive growth in retail [8]. - The integration of AI in cross-border e-commerce and e-commerce services is emphasized, with specific companies identified as beneficiaries of this trend. The report suggests that AI tools can enhance operational efficiency across various segments of the retail industry [3][8]. Summary by Sections AI and Cross-Border E-commerce - AI is expected to create new traffic entry points for B2B platforms, transitioning from SEO to GEO. Companies like Xiaogoods City and Focus Technology are leveraging AI tools to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement [3][8]. - Xiaogoods City has over 30,000 merchants utilizing AI applications, with usage exceeding 1 billion times [8]. - Focus Technology reported a membership penetration rate of over 50% for its AI services [8]. AI and E-commerce Services - The report notes that e-commerce platforms are shifting from SEO to GEO, with third-party (TP) companies gaining advantages through AI tools that analyze consumer preferences [8]. - Companies such as Qingmu Technology and Yiwang Yichuang are developing proprietary technologies to support AI applications in e-commerce operations [8]. - Qingmu Technology has created a suite of tools to adapt to evolving AI technologies, while Yiwang Yichuang is building a dedicated team to enhance its competitive edge in the market [8].

9 January 2026 | 5:41PM HKT Equity Research Zhejiang China Commodities City Group (600415.SS, NC): APAC Consumer & Leisure Corp Day — new initiatives unlocking ample growth Bottom line: We hosted Zhejiang China Commodities City Group (600415.SS, Not Covered) for a virtual meeting at our APAC Consumer & Leisure Corp Day on Jan 9, 2026. Key takeaways include: 1) Yiwu's export momentum remains strong with export value +25% yoy in 11M25, and mgmt's tone was optimistic towards export growth into the next few yea ...

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory scrutiny on non-bank payment institutions in China is intensifying, as evidenced by the recent penalties imposed on Yiwupay for violations related to reserve fund management, account management, and clearing management [2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Yiwupay, a subsidiary of Xiaogoods City, was fined 3.21 million yuan for violating reserve fund management, account management, and clearing management regulations [2]. - Two responsible personnel were warned and fined 80,000 yuan each for their roles in the violations [2]. - The penalties reflect the regulatory authority's ongoing commitment to enforce compliance in core operational areas of payment institutions [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Yiwupay was established in 2012 and obtained a payment business license in July 2013, allowing it to operate internet payment services nationwide [2]. - The company was acquired by Xiaogoods City in June 2022 and rebranded as "Yiwupay" [3]. - Yiwupay has expanded its business into cross-border payment services and has received approval for cross-border RMB business [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Yiwupay achieved profitability in 2023, with a net profit of 16.29 million yuan after a loss of approximately 5.72 million yuan in the first half of the year [3]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 61.04 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 274.67% [3]. - In the first nine months of 2025, Yiwupay's cross-border payment transaction volume exceeded 27 billion yuan, showing a growth of over 35% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Xiaogoods City (600415) has shown a positive performance with a closing price of 16.48 yuan, reflecting a 1.79% increase on January 9, 2026, despite a net outflow of funds from major investors [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Flow - On January 9, 2026, Xiaogoods City reported a trading volume of 686,900 hands and a total transaction amount of 1.13 billion yuan [1] - The fund flow data indicates a net outflow of 64.20 million yuan from major investors, accounting for 5.68% of the total transaction amount, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 81.93 million yuan, representing 7.25% of the total [1][2] - Over the past five days, the stock has experienced fluctuations in fund flow, with significant net outflows from major and speculative investors on multiple days [2] Group 2: Company Financials and Industry Position - Xiaogoods City has a total market capitalization of 90.369 billion yuan, ranking first in the commercial retail industry, with a net profit of 3.457 billion yuan, also the highest in the industry [3] - The company reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 23.07% for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 48.45% [3] - The company's return on equity (ROE) stands at 15.96%, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.1%, indicating strong profitability [3] Group 3: Business Model and Strategic Focus - Xiaogoods City aims to build a shared trade service platform for small and medium enterprises, focusing on becoming a leading international trade service provider [3] - The company is enhancing its three ecosystems: product display and trading, trade services, and supporting services, to reduce trade costs and improve efficiency [3] - The product display ecosystem includes offline market operations and self-operated trade sales, while the trade services ecosystem encompasses online platforms and logistics [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant outflow of main capital from various stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with 387 stocks experiencing net outflows for five consecutive days or more, indicating potential investment risks in these companies [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Main Capital Outflow Statistics - The stock with the longest continuous net outflow is Dameng Data, with 23 days of outflows [1]. - Daqin Railway follows with 20 days of net outflows, totaling 2.711 billion yuan [1]. - The total net outflow for Daqin Railway over 20 days is the highest at 2.711 billion yuan, while Xiechuang Data has a net outflow of 1.914 billion yuan over five days [1][2]. Group 2: Stocks with Significant Outflows - The top stocks by net outflow duration include: - Daqin Railway: 20 days, 2.711 billion yuan, 18.68% of trading volume, -6.22% cumulative change [1]. - Dameng Data: 23 days, 0.503 billion yuan, 7.58% of trading volume, 14.15% cumulative change [2]. - Haima Automobile: 12 days, 1.626 billion yuan, 8.26% of trading volume, -18.59% cumulative change [1]. Group 3: Other Notable Stocks - Other stocks with notable outflows include: - Wuzhou Xinchun: 5 days, 1.574 billion yuan, 5.24% of trading volume, 11.62% cumulative change [1]. - Dongshan Precision: 6 days, 1.512 billion yuan, 6.91% of trading volume, -6.80% cumulative change [1]. - Shengtai Electronics: 10 days, 1.377 billion yuan, 8.47% of trading volume, -8.71% cumulative change [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhejiang China Commodity City Group Co., Ltd. has shown a positive stock performance recently, with a 2.04% increase in stock price on January 9, reaching 16.52 yuan per share, and a total market capitalization of 90.588 billion yuan [1] - The company has experienced a net inflow of main funds amounting to 21.1881 million yuan, with significant buying activity from large orders, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 3.57%, while it has seen a decline of 15.76% over the past 60 days, suggesting volatility in its recent performance [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the company reported a revenue of 13.061 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.457 billion yuan, up 48.45% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 7.079 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.263 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - The number of shareholders has increased to 132,500, with an average of 41,384 circulating shares per person, indicating a growing interest among investors [2]

Market Overview - The general retail sector experienced a decline of 0.36% on January 7, with Cuiwei Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4085.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14030.56, up 0.06% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the general retail sector included: - Youa Co. (002277) with a closing price of 7.85, up 9.94% and a trading volume of 899,900 shares, totaling 6.91 billion yuan [1] - Shanghai Jiubai (600838) closed at 12.60, up 7.05% with a trading volume of 1,061,900 shares, totaling 13.37 billion yuan [1] - New World (600628) closed at 8.45, up 5.23% with a trading volume of 546,400 shares, totaling 4.55 billion yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The general retail sector saw a net outflow of 346 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 145 million yuan [2] - The top stocks by net inflow from retail investors included: - Youa Co. with a net outflow of 91.06 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Shanghai Jiubai with a net outflow of 5.84 million yuan from retail investors [3] - New World with a net outflow of 3.12 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance in the coming months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the encouragement of travel and cultural consumption through policies aimed at enhancing employee leisure activities, which is expected to boost the travel and cultural sectors significantly [2][4]. - The introduction of additional public holidays and policies supporting paid leave is anticipated to stimulate cultural and tourism consumption, particularly during traditionally low seasons [4]. - Data from travel platforms indicates a substantial increase in ticket bookings during recent holiday periods, showcasing a growing consumer interest in travel and leisure activities [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Initiatives - The report discusses the issuance of guidelines by various government bodies to promote employee cultural and sports activities, allowing for up to four organized trips per year and the distribution of cultural consumption vouchers [1][2]. Market Trends - Significant growth in ticket bookings was observed during the autumn and snow holidays, with some regions reporting increases of over 300% in ticket reservations compared to previous years [3]. - The report notes that the policy-driven encouragement of travel is likely to transform traditionally slow tourism periods into more active seasons, benefiting sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and sports events [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with potential for growth, particularly in Hainan and during the upcoming Spring Festival, as well as sectors benefiting from new consumer trends and favorable policies [5][8]. - Specific companies are recommended for investment, including those in the duty-free, hotel, and new retail sectors, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhejiang China Commodity City Group Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline, with a current price of 16.17 CNY per share, reflecting a 2.06% drop on January 7. The company has shown mixed performance in terms of stock price changes over various time frames, with a year-to-date increase of 1.38% but a significant decline of 11.98% over the past 60 days [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.061 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.457 billion CNY, marking a substantial increase of 48.45% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 7.079 billion CNY in dividends, with 3.263 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 132,500, up by 11.72% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 10.49% to 41,384 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 287 million shares, a decrease of 64.094 million shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, both of which also saw reductions in their holdings [3]. Market Activity - On January 7, the stock experienced a trading volume of 650 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 0.73%. The net outflow of main funds was 75.8516 million CNY, with significant selling pressure observed [1].