Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the gold jewelry sector, indicating that consumer enthusiasm remains strong despite fluctuations in gold prices, particularly during the Chinese New Year [10][24]. Core Insights - On January 30, gold prices experienced significant volatility, yet consumer interest in Lao Pu gold stores remained high, showcasing the brand's growing influence [10]. - Promotional activities at Lao Pu gold stores and SKP malls are expected to sustain high-end gold brand consumption during the Spring Festival, with various discounts and gifts driving consumer demand [10]. - Lao Pu gold's fixed-price model contrasts with competitors that price by weight, leading to stronger consumer expectations for price increases, thus insulating the brand from gold price fluctuations [10]. - The report highlights that despite a drop in gold prices at the end of January 2026, certain Lao Pu stores in Shanghai and Beijing continued to see long queues, indicating strong brand appeal during price volatility [10]. Industry Data Tracking - According to Guojin Digital Future Lab, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of December increased by 49.2% year-on-year [11]. - The top five categories in terms of growth during this period were books and audio-visual products, automotive and bicycles, watches, toys, and shoes and bags [11]. Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded changes of -0.44%, -1.62%, 0.08%, 2.38%, and -1.38% respectively, while the retail sector saw a gain of 4.18% [17]. - Notable stock performances included *ST Huike, Yiyaton, Yiwan Yichuang, Yuyuan Co., and Kaichun Co., which saw gains attributed to AI application catalysts [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cross-border e-commerce, particularly companies with strong brand power and product differentiation, which are expected to show resilience in performance [24]. - In the gold jewelry sector, the report anticipates that consumer enthusiasm will remain strong despite high baseline figures in January, with same-store growth expected to continue [24]. - The report highlights the potential for companies like Chao Hong Ji, which is expected to benefit from new product launches and an increase in self-produced products, driving profitability [24]. - The duty-free sector is also noted for its potential growth, particularly with the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is expected to significantly impact local and national duty-free businesses [24].

Group 1: Key Insights - The report highlights multiple positive catalysts for the electronics sector, particularly for Huadian Co., Ltd. (002463), including the upcoming financial disclosures from overseas cloud vendors and domestic supply chain performance forecasts, which will validate the sustainability of computing power demand and industry prosperity [4] - The defense and military industry, represented by Guoke Military Industry (688543), is transitioning from conventional ammunition to intelligent and information-based ammunition, positioning the company to benefit from high industry demand and military trade orders, which are expected to drive significant growth [4] - In the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, Huan Huang Pharmaceutical (0013.HK) is advancing its ATTC platform with candidates entering clinical trials, including HMPL-A251, which is a first-in-class drug, and is also expanding the indications for existing drugs, indicating strong future growth potential [5] Group 2: Company-Specific Analysis - Wan Hua Chemical (600309) is reinforcing its position as a global leader in polyurethane, with significant market shares in MDI and TDI, and is expected to enhance profitability through strategic partnerships and cost advantages in its petrochemical segment [6] - Su Kan Agricultural Development (601952) anticipates a slight decline in 2025 profits due to falling grain prices, but expects a recovery driven by rising grain prices and increased farmland area through land transfer initiatives [7] - Yingwei Technology (002837) is poised for substantial growth in the server liquid cooling market, with expectations of doubling industry growth in 2026 and 2027, supported by orders from major overseas clients [8] Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - China Pacific Insurance (601601) demonstrated strong resilience with a 11% year-on-year increase in net profit to 27.9 billion yuan, driven by robust growth in new business value in its life insurance segment [8] - Jin Jiang Shipping (601083) reported a 64% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, indicating strong performance relative to peers, with expectations for continued growth [8] - Xiaoshangcheng (600415) is benefiting from increased rental income and new merchant additions, with projections for profit doubling in 2026 due to enhanced service offerings and improved gross margins [8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural opportunities in both domestic demand and overseas expansion for 2026, particularly focusing on new services and new retail sectors [2][24] - It highlights the positive resonance between policy and fundamentals, suggesting that leading companies in the commercial sector are likely to benefit from policy stimuli and improve their fundamentals [2][4] Domestic Demand - The report identifies new services and new retail as the main lines for domestic demand, with a focus on the marginal changes in the fundamentals of related sub-sectors [2][5] - Specific sub-sectors showing price increase potential include: - **Hotels**: Strong leisure demand and optimized supply structure, with prices expected to remain stable or slightly increase. Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and Shoulv Hotels [2][3] - **Duty-Free**: With the opening of Hainan, the sector is stabilizing, and China Duty Free is highlighted as a key player [2][3] - **Gold and Jewelry**: The report notes a high volatility in gold prices but anticipates improved terminal sales. Recommended companies include Chow Tai Fook and Lao Puhuang [2][3] - **Mother and Baby**: Leading companies are expected to maintain steady growth, supported by favorable policies. Recommended companies include Kidswant and Aiyingshi [2][3] Sub-Sectors Driven by Volume Growth - The report suggests focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for sectors primarily driven by volume growth: - **Supermarkets**: CPI increases are beneficial for same-store sales, with a shift in focus from store adjustments to supply chain reforms. Recommended companies include Yonghui Superstores and Jiajiayue [3][5] - **Tourism**: The report highlights the potential for expansion and asset integration in the tourism sector, recommending companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Changbai Mountain [3][5] - **Dining**: Emphasizes refined operations and incentives for leading companies, with recommendations including Yum China and Haidilao [3][5] - **Tea Drinks**: The report notes that delivery subsidies may impact pricing, with store openings expected to drive growth. Recommended companies include Mixue and Gu Ming [3][5] Overseas Expansion - The report indicates that leading companies with high barriers to entry are expected to continue showing strong performance in overseas markets, with a focus on brand building and diversified destinations [4][24] - Recommended companies for overseas expansion include: - **Small Commodity City** and **Miniso**: Both are noted for their strong performance and brand development [4][24] - **Anker Innovations** and **Sumida**: Highlighted for their competitive advantages in specific segments [4][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that for 2026, investors should focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and those with strong performance certainty in overseas markets [5][24] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of volume in certain sectors while maintaining a cautious approach to pricing stability [5][24]

Group 1 - The general retail sector increased by 0.81% on January 22, with Jinhe Commercial Management leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] - Notable gainers in the general retail sector included Jinhe Commercial Management (up 4.11%), Hemei Group (up 3.26%), and Ningbo Zhongbai (up 3.08%) [1] Group 2 - The general retail sector experienced a net outflow of 676 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 792 million yuan [2] - Major stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors included Youa Co. (1864.64 million yuan) and Hemei Group (1531.57 million yuan) [3] - Conversely, stocks like Xiaoshangpin City and Youa Co. faced net outflows from institutional investors, indicating varied investor sentiment across the sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows positive momentum with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4122.58 points, above the annual line, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 27,165.07 billion yuan [1] - 120 A-shares have surpassed the annual line, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] Group 2: Notable Stocks - Stocks with significant deviation rates include: - Teruisi (特瑞斯) with a deviation rate of 22.45% and a daily increase of 29.98% [1] - Qingyun Technology (青云科技) with a deviation rate of 17.76% and a daily increase of 20.00% [1] - Zhongbei Communication (中贝通信) with a deviation rate of 9.06% and a daily increase of 10.00% [1] - Other stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the annual line include: - Meiansen (梅安森) and Founder Securities (方正证券) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Xiaogoods City (600415) has shown a decline in price and significant net outflow of main funds, indicating potential market concerns despite strong financial performance in recent quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance - Xiaogoods City reported a total revenue of 130.61 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.07% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 34.57 billion yuan, up 48.45% year-on-year [3]. - The company achieved a single-quarter revenue of 53.48 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 39.02% increase compared to the same quarter last year [3]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 17.66 billion yuan, which is a remarkable increase of 100.52% year-on-year [3]. Market Position - Xiaogoods City holds a total market value of 924.53 billion yuan, significantly higher than the commercial retail industry average of 105.98 billion yuan, ranking first in the industry [3]. - The company has a net asset value of 222.61 billion yuan, also ranking second in the industry [3]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) stands at 20.06, which is lower than the industry average of 212.7, ranking fifth [3]. Investment Sentiment - Over the past 90 days, 14 institutions have rated Xiaogoods City with a buy recommendation, indicating strong institutional confidence [4]. - The average target price set by institutions for the stock is 21.16 yuan, suggesting potential upside from the current trading price [4].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhejiang China Commodity City Group Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.03% and a total market capitalization of approximately 923.98 billion yuan. The company has shown a year-to-date increase of 5.64% in stock price, but has faced a decline in the last five trading days [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.061 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.457 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 48.45% compared to the previous year [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 132,500, up by 11.72% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 10.49% to 41,384 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 7.079 billion yuan in dividends, with 3.263 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 287 million shares, which is a decrease of 64.094 million shares from the previous period. Other notable institutional shareholders include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, both of which have also seen reductions in their holdings [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company Xiaogoods City (600415) has shown significant growth in its financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on building a comprehensive trade service platform for small and medium enterprises globally [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Xiaogoods City reported a main revenue of 13.061 billion yuan, an increase of 23.07% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.457 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.45% [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.392 billion yuan, up 48.59% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a main revenue of 5.348 billion yuan, a 39.02% increase year-on-year [2]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.766 billion yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 100.52% [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q3 2025 was 1.723 billion yuan, up 99.56% year-on-year [2]. - The company's debt ratio stands at 50.86%, with investment income of 268 million yuan and financial expenses of 12.632 million yuan [2]. - The gross profit margin is reported at 37.23% [2]. Business Strategy - Xiaogoods City aims to establish itself as a "global leading comprehensive service provider for international trade," focusing on enhancing three ecosystems: product display and trading, trade services, and supporting services [2]. - The product display and trading ecosystem includes offline market operations and self-operated trade sales [2]. - The trade services ecosystem encompasses the Chinagoods online service platform, warehousing, logistics, payment, credit, and factoring services [2]. - The supporting services ecosystem includes exhibition and hotel sectors [2]. Market Sentiment - In the last 90 days, 14 institutions have rated Xiaogoods City, all giving a buy rating [3]. - The average target price set by institutions over the past 90 days is 2.116 billion yuan [3].