Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing new energy storage technologies in China, highlighting their role in supporting the new power system dominated by renewable energy sources, as reiterated in the government work reports for three consecutive years [3]. Summary by Sections New Energy Storage Development - New energy storage, excluding pumped hydro storage, is crucial for enhancing the flexibility and safety of the power grid, especially as wind and solar energy generation scales up [3]. - By the end of 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage in China is expected to reach 136 million kilowatts, a more than 40-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3]. Utilization and Capacity - In 2025, the equivalent utilization hours of new energy storage are projected to be 1,195 hours, an increase of nearly 300 hours from 2024 [4]. - New energy storage is expected to free up 42.1 billion kilowatt-hours of consumption space for renewable energy, with a peak capacity exceeding 30 million kilowatts in summer [4]. Market Challenges and Policy Changes - Despite rapid growth, new energy storage faces profitability challenges due to factors like slow electricity market development and limited auxiliary service varieties, leading to a significant drop in rental income for independent storage projects [5]. - The cancellation of "policy-based storage" has resulted in a reduction of 50% to 70% in rental income, with internal rates of return dropping to 2.2% to 3.5% [5]. Policy Support and Economic Viability - Recent policy changes have integrated independent storage into the capacity price mechanism, establishing a three-tier revenue structure that includes energy market, auxiliary service market, and capacity pricing [5][6]. - This policy shift is expected to enhance the economic viability of new energy storage projects by providing a dual revenue model of guaranteed capacity pricing and market-based income [6]. Industry Trends - The number of independent storage project filings has surged, with 79 projects approved in Guangdong by March 6, 2026, nearing half of the total for 2025 and significantly higher than previous years [6]. - The industry is anticipated to enter a phase of true market development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, characterized by steady growth, diverse technology pathways, and an upgraded role as a core resource for system regulation [6].

2026年初，煤电、气电、抽水蓄能等调节性电源的电价机制迎来新规。国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合对外发布《关于完善 发电侧容量电价机制的通知》，明确提出有序建立发电侧可靠容量补偿机制，对机组可靠容量根据顶峰能力按统一原则进行补 偿。 在国家政策明确方向之后，地方的发电侧容量电价机制也在逐步落地。2月25日，青海省发展和改革委员会发布《关于建立青海 省发电侧容量电价机制的通知（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《征求意见稿》）。 吴迪向21世纪经济报道记者表示，从时间节奏看，青海属于较早响应国家政策部署并形成具体实施方案的地区之一。青海的政 策定位更准确地说是"积极跟进、系统落地"，体现了新能源大省在国家顶层制度框架明确后的快速响应和细化落实。 "需要指出的是，地方探索并非脱离中央政策框架。"吴迪进一步表示，早在2023年国家建立煤电容量电价机制时，就明确提出 电力现货市场连续运行的地区，可在此基础上研究建立适应本地市场运行情况的发电侧容量电价机制。2025年9月出台的《电力 现货连续运行地区市场建设指引》再次强调建立容量评估机制，要求各地探索构建发电机组可靠容量评估体系，综合考虑机组 类型、出力特性、厂用电率、检修停机 ...

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration projects that by 2025, the national wind and solar power generation will increase by 25% year-on-year, accounting for 22% of total power generation, significantly boosting the share of renewable energy to nearly 40% [1] - New installed capacity for renewable energy in China is expected to reach 452 million kilowatts by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21% [1] Group 1: Wind and Solar Power Growth - By 2025, new installed capacity for wind power and solar energy is forecasted to be 119.33 GW and 315.07 GW respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 50.4% and 13.7% [1] - The disparity in growth rates between wind and solar installations is attributed to the pressure on electricity prices and demand caused by the full market entry of new energy sources, with wind power being less affected due to its dispersed output [1] Group 2: Investment and Infrastructure - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the State Grid's fixed asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous period, focusing on green transformation [1] - The State Grid aims to support an annual increase of approximately 20 million kilowatts in wind and solar energy installations, targeting a non-fossil energy consumption share of 25% and an electricity share in terminal energy consumption of 35% [1] Group 3: Market Mechanisms and Development - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have introduced a new pricing mechanism for power generation, which includes independent new-type energy storage in the compensation framework [2] - East Wu Securities notes that the three main constraints on the full market entry of new energy—consumption, pricing, and subsidies—are gradually easing, paving the way for high-quality development of renewable energy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has experienced a significant decline of 34% since late January, nearly reversing its gains for the year, primarily due to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which led to a strong rise in the US dollar index and a sharp drop in global risk appetite [1] Supply Side Summary - Lithium ore supply and demand are robust, with prices for Australian spodumene and domestic lithium mica rising by 26% this year. However, lithium salt plants are currently undergoing maintenance, and production in the Yichun area has decreased due to certification changes [2] - In January, China's lithium carbonate production fell by 1% month-on-month to 97,900 tons, with February production expected to drop to 81,900 tons, indicating a downward trend in domestic production [2] - Chile's lithium salt exports in January reached 39,300 tons LCE, a 76% increase month-on-month and a 38.7% year-on-year rise, primarily due to early shipments ahead of the Chinese New Year [2] Demand Side Summary - As the Chinese New Year approaches, production at cathode manufacturers has slowed, but demand from power battery companies has rebounded due to "export rush" strategies. Weekly production of ternary materials has decreased by 11% from last year's peak, while lithium iron phosphate production has dropped by 8.6% [3] - Power battery production, which had been declining for eight consecutive weeks, saw a slight increase of 0.3 GWh last week, reaching 26.7 GWh, driven by manufacturers stocking up ahead of a reduction in export tax rates for lithium batteries [3] - The domestic energy storage market showed strong performance in January, with a 13.7% increase in energy scale to 13.9 GWh, indicating sustained high demand in the energy storage sector [4] Inventory Perspective - As of February 5, domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate was 105,463 tons, with a weekly reduction of 2,019 tons. The inventory structure shows that 41% is concentrated in downstream sectors, indicating strong actual demand [5] - The overall supply pressure for lithium carbonate is gradually easing, with expectations for demand recovery post-holiday, which may lead to further declines in inventory levels [5] - The lithium carbonate market is entering a new phase dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, with short-term price support solidifying as production decreases and import windows close, reducing future overseas supply [5]

国家发改委、国家能源局近日发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知（发改价格〔2026〕114号)》（以下简称《通知》），明确 提出分类完善煤电、天然气发电、抽水蓄能、新型储能容量电价机制，优化电力市场机制；电力现货市场连续运行后，有序建立发电侧 可靠容量补偿机制，对机组可靠容量根据顶峰能力按统一原则进行补偿。《通知》还首次在国家层面明确对独立新型储能容量电价的支 持政策。 这一重磅《通知》被视为电改的关键一步。目前，上网电价体系由电能价格、辅助服务价格和容量价格组成，前两年电改重点旨在通过 市场化手段解决电能如何出售，《通知》出台则标志着我国在解决"电力系统够不够稳" "备用电源能不能留住"的关键问题上，搭建起完 整拼图。 《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》被视为电改的关键一步，其出台则标志着我国在解决"电力系统够不够稳" "备用电源能不能 留住"的关键问题上，搭建起完整拼图。 解决现行容量电价机制遇到的新问题 国家发改委、国家能源局相关负责人向《中国能源报》记者解释，现行容量电价机制遇到一些新问题：一是部分地区煤电发电小时数快 速下降，现行容量电价水平保障力度出现不足苗头；二是现行抽水蓄能容量电价机制对企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation marks a significant policy shift in China's energy sector, aiming to enhance the stability and reliability of the power supply while supporting the green energy transition [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Pricing Mechanism for Power Generation," which categorizes and improves the pricing mechanisms for coal, natural gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage [1]. - The policy integrates natural gas power generation and grid-side independent new energy storage into a unified capacity pricing framework, creating a comprehensive system for various regulatory power sources [1][2]. - The initiative aims to establish a reliable capacity compensation market that ensures "equal pay for equal work" among different energy sources, thereby enhancing the security of power supply [1][3]. Group 2: Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The capacity pricing mechanism is designed to pay for the available generation capacity of power sources rather than just the actual electricity generated, focusing on the ability to provide power during peak demand [2][4]. - The current challenges faced by the existing capacity pricing mechanism include inconsistencies in pricing principles across regions, which hinder fair competition in the market [2][3]. - The new policy aims to adapt to the requirements of a new power system and market structure, ensuring better stability and safety in power supply while facilitating a low-carbon energy transition [2][3]. Group 3: Impact on New Energy Storage - The 114 document fills the policy gap for new energy storage in the capacity mechanism, allowing it to compete on equal footing with coal and pumped storage in the electricity market [3][6]. - The capacity pricing level for independent new energy storage will be determined based on local coal power capacity pricing standards, adjusted according to peak capacity contributions [4][5]. - The introduction of a dual-driven model combining capacity pricing and market revenue is expected to stabilize the revenue structure for new energy storage projects [5][6]. Group 4: Regional Variations and Implementation - The implementation of the capacity pricing mechanism may vary across provinces, influenced by local renewable energy ratios, load characteristics, and transmission conditions [5][6]. - Differences in pricing logic, assessment standards, and cost-sharing mechanisms across regions will affect the feasibility and effectiveness of the capacity pricing policy [5][6]. - Local governments are encouraged to plan and manage various regulatory resources effectively, ensuring that the benefits of the policy are directed towards reliable and high-quality storage projects [7].

证券日报网讯2月5日，福能股份（600483）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，根据《关于完善发电侧 容量电价机制的通知》(发改价格〔2026〕114号)文件，抽水蓄能电站可靠容量电价能够提升回报确定 性，市场化运营能够拓展增收空间。公司将平衡保底收益与市场弹性，保障项目回报与可持续发展。同 时提示广大投资者，具体政策细则落地进度、省级容量电价核定差异、市场规则变化、辅助服务价格波 动等对项目收益将存在不确定影响。 ...

【宏观及行业新闻】 3. 【关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知】2026 年 1 月 30 日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 5 日 动力煤：印尼减产消息刺激进口市场，国内煤价节 前仍以稳为主 樊园园 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 fanyuanyuan@gtht.com 1. 【基本面跟踪】 动力煤基本面数据 指 标 单 位 本 期 环 比 同比去年 山西大同5500 元/吨 568.0 0.0 -42.0 内蒙古鄂尔多斯5500 元/吨 532.0 0.0 -27.0 产地价格 | | 澳大利亚FOB Q5500 | 美元/吨 | 75.9 | 0.0 | -3.1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2月长协价格 | 港口Q5500 | 元/吨 | 680.0 | -4.0 | -11.0 | | | 山西Q5500 | 元/吨 | 517.0 | -23.0 | —— | | | 陕西Q5500 | 元/吨 | 461.0 | -22.0 | —— | | | 蒙西Q5500 | 元/吨 | 431.0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy changes aim to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for coal, gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage to ensure the stability and safety of the power system while promoting a green and low-carbon energy transition [2][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Mechanisms - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration (NEA) have issued a notification to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for various energy sources, including coal and gas [2]. - The notification emphasizes the need to adapt the pricing mechanisms to the requirements of the new power system and market structure, ensuring a fair competitive environment [2][3]. - It proposes to increase the coal power capacity price standard in various regions and establish a similar pricing mechanism for gas power [2]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The notification requires that the proportion of fixed costs recovered through capacity pricing for coal power plants be raised to no less than 50%, equating to 165 yuan per kilowatt annually [4]. - For new pumped storage projects, a unified capacity price will be set based on average cost recovery principles [2][4]. - The establishment of an independent capacity pricing mechanism for new energy storage will consider factors such as discharge duration and peak contribution [2][4]. Group 3: Impact on Electricity Pricing - The policy is designed not to affect residential electricity prices, maintaining the current pricing policy for residential and agricultural users [4]. - For industrial and commercial users, the adjustments in capacity pricing are expected to balance out, with costs for regulatory power sources decreasing while capacity pricing increases, resulting in minimal impact on overall electricity costs [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][61] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy changes by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to enhance the profitability of coal and gas power sources and stimulate investment in new energy storage projects [10] - The report indicates a significant increase in installed power generation capacity, with a total of 389 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, and emphasizes the shift towards renewable energy sources [11][12] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased to 3119 hours in 2025, down 312 hours from the previous year, indicating challenges in energy consumption efficiency amidst rapid capacity expansion [12][27] Industry Events - On January 30, 2026, a notification was issued to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for coal, gas, and pumped storage power generation, establishing a new pricing mechanism for grid-side energy storage [10] - The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for 2025, showing a substantial increase in solar and wind power generation capacity [11] Market Performance - During the period from January 26 to February 1, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.08%, while the power equipment index fell by 5.10%, underperforming the broader market [13][15] - Among the sub-sectors related to power energy, only the comprehensive energy service and hydropower sectors saw slight increases, while thermal power equipment and battery-related sectors experienced significant declines [19] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 908 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a total annual consumption of 10368.2 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 5.00% growth [20][22] - The newly added power generation capacity for 2025 was 54617.1558 megawatts, with notable growth in thermal and wind power, while hydropower and nuclear power saw declines [22][24] New Power System Developments - As of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54%, with new energy storage capacity growing by 85% [44] - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating stability in polysilicon prices and fluctuations in battery component prices [37][47][48] - The total number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 20.092 million by the end of December 2025, marking a 56.75% increase year-on-year [51]