在新型电力系统加快建设的背景下，承担系统调节任务的煤电正面临新的挑战。 上述人士介绍："部分地区煤电利用小时数快速下降，现行容量电价水平对固定成本的保障力度出现不 足苗头。同时，现行抽水蓄能容量电价机制对成本约束不足，不利于抽水蓄能项目科学合理布局、降本 增效、有序发展。此外，各地气电、新型储能容量电价机制的原则不统一，也不利于营造公平竞争的市 场环境。" 因此，相关政策需要适应新型电力系统和电力市场体系建设要求，分类完善煤电、气电、抽水蓄能、新 型储能容量电价机制，并适时建立发电侧可靠容量补偿机制，更好保障电力系统安全稳定运行，助力能 源绿色低碳转型。 《通知》提出，适应新型电力系统和电力市场体系建设需要，分类完善煤电、气电、抽水蓄能、新型储 能容量电价机制： 一是各地结合实际提高煤电容量电价标准，并可参照煤电建立气电容量电价机制； "春季风速特别大的时候，我们的风力发电机组反而会停下来，因为发电量太大，无法全额并网。"近 日，内蒙古自治区某风电场一位工作人员告诉《中国经营报》记者，"风电、光伏发电的短板在于不稳 定，对天气、风速和光照依赖较强，波动性大。" 记者在另一处光伏电站采访时了解到，为弥补光伏发电 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][61] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy changes by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to enhance the profitability of coal and gas power sources and stimulate investment in new energy storage projects [10] - The report indicates a significant increase in installed power generation capacity, with a total of 389 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, and emphasizes the shift towards renewable energy sources [11][12] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased to 3119 hours in 2025, down 312 hours from the previous year, indicating challenges in energy consumption efficiency amidst rapid capacity expansion [12][27] Industry Events - On January 30, 2026, a notification was issued to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for coal, gas, and pumped storage power generation, establishing a new pricing mechanism for grid-side energy storage [10] - The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for 2025, showing a substantial increase in solar and wind power generation capacity [11] Market Performance - During the period from January 26 to February 1, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.08%, while the power equipment index fell by 5.10%, underperforming the broader market [13][15] - Among the sub-sectors related to power energy, only the comprehensive energy service and hydropower sectors saw slight increases, while thermal power equipment and battery-related sectors experienced significant declines [19] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 908 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a total annual consumption of 10368.2 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 5.00% growth [20][22] - The newly added power generation capacity for 2025 was 54617.1558 megawatts, with notable growth in thermal and wind power, while hydropower and nuclear power saw declines [22][24] New Power System Developments - As of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54%, with new energy storage capacity growing by 85% [44] - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating stability in polysilicon prices and fluctuations in battery component prices [37][47][48] - The total number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 20.092 million by the end of December 2025, marking a 56.75% increase year-on-year [51]

容量补偿机制"扩围"，多元主体共享灵活性溢价。1）建立电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制：首次将 电网侧独立新型储能纳入补偿范围，标准参照当地煤电，根据顶峰能力折算。①对象：服务于电力系统 安全运行且未参与配储的电网侧独立电站；②顶峰折算公式：折算比例计算方式为"满功率连续放电时 长/全年最长净负荷高峰持续时长"，该比例最高不超过1；③监管：清单制管理，具体项目清单由省级 能源及价格主管部门联合制定。2）完善抽水蓄能容量电价机制：对抽水蓄能电站采取了"新老划断、分 类施策"的原则，推动市场化回收成本。①针对（2021年633号文件出台前开工，以下简称"633"号 文）"老电站"：按633号文进行电价核定，经营期满后重新核价；②633号文后的"新电站"：由省级价格 主管部门每3至5年制定一次省级电网同期新开工电站的"统一容量电价"。鼓励新开工电站参与市场，市 场收益按比例由电站分享，其余部分冲减系统运行费用。3）完善天然气发电容量电价机制：省级价格 主管部门可对天然气发电建立容量电价机制，容量电价按照回收天然气发电机组一定比例固定成本的方 式确定。 有序建立发电侧可靠容量补偿机制，对顶峰贡献公平付费。1）可靠容量定 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-03 有色板块集体回撤，碳酸锂价格再次跌停 市场分析 2026-02-02，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于146000元/吨，收于132440元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-13.99%。当 日成交量为644314手，持仓量为347698手，前一交易日持仓量372601手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为7220元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单32241手，较上个交易日变化1610手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价145000-166000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-5000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价142000-162000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-5000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2090美元/吨，较前一日变化-85美元/吨。 为适应新型电力系统建设需要，国家发展改革委、国家能源局于2026年1月30日发布了《关于完善发电侧容量电价 机制的通知》（发改价格〔2026〕114号）。该政策首次明确容量电价机制，鼓励长时储能的建设运营，同时扩大了 补偿覆盖范围，将对储能需求以及碳酸锂价格产生较为积极的影响。但昨日贵金属、有色板块集体回撤，多品种 跌停， ...

资料来源：钢联、CCTD、中国煤炭资源网、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 动力煤：供需弱平衡，节前煤价以稳为主 | 樊园园 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 | | | fanyuanyuan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 1. | | | | | | 动力煤基本面数据 | | | | | | | 山西大同5500 | 元/吨 | 568.0 | 0.0 -56.0 | | 指 标 | | 单 位 | 本 期 | 环 比 | 同比去年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西大同5500 | | 元/吨 | 568.0 | 0.0 | -56.0 | | 产地价格 | 内蒙古鄂尔多斯5500 | 元/吨 | 532.0 | 0.0 | -35.0 | | 陕西榆林5800 | | 元/吨 | 598.0 | 2.0 | -52.0 | | 秦港山西产Q5500 | | 元/吨 | 609.0 | 0.0 | -61.0 ...

为了适应新型电力系统和电力市场体系建设需要，一系列有关电力市场改革的文件陆续发布。 1月30日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》（发改价格 〔2026〕114号，下称"114号文"），意在推动煤电、天然气发电、抽水蓄能、新型储能四大发电侧的调 节性电源的电价机制从"电量补偿"向"电量+容量"双轨制转型。 具体来看，114号文要求，分类完善煤电、天然气发电、抽水蓄能、新型储能容量电价机制，优化电力 市场机制；电力现货市场连续运行后，有序建立发电侧可靠容量补偿机制，对机组可靠容量根据顶峰能 力按统一原则进行补偿，公平反映不同机组对电力系统顶峰贡献。 电规总院副院长刘世宇撰文指出，文件的印发标志着，在我国电力市场加速建设背景下，电价形成机制 取得重要进展，对保障电力容量可靠充裕、促进各电源品种转型定位、稳定预期激励带动投资具有里程 碑式的重大意义。 用同一"标尺"给予补偿 煤电、气电、抽水蓄能和新型储能是承担电网系统调节任务的四大主要参与者。 近年来，我国新能源大规模发展，已成为第一大装机电源类型。新能源随机性、波动性强的特性，要求 系统中必须配套建设一定规模的调节性电源，在新 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points, marking a substantial drop below the 4100-point level [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.69%, reaching its largest single-day decline since January, while the ChiNext Index fell by 2.46% [2] - Over 4600 stocks in the market declined, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit down, indicating a sharp decrease in market risk appetite [2] Sector Performance - Resource stocks faced heavy losses, with declines of 7.63% in non-ferrous metals, 5.65% in steel, and 5.43% in coal and oil sectors, reflecting concerns over industrial demand as the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 [5] - Defensive sectors such as food and beverage, and banking showed resilience, with increases of 1.15% and 0.13% respectively, attracting risk-averse capital [5] - The high-voltage power sector surged by 3.84%, driven by policy catalysts from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [5] Commodity Market - The commodity index saw a significant drop of 4.37%, with most commodities declining sharply, while only a few chemical products showed gains [7] - Precious metals like gold and silver experienced steep declines, with silver dropping by 17.00% and gold by 15.73%, reflecting a market shift away from high-volatility assets [7][8] - The market exhibited extreme differentiation, with only a few products like caustic soda and PVC showing upward movement amidst widespread declines [7] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed mixed results, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.18% while shorter-term contracts experienced slight declines [10] - The central bank's net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan indicates a stable liquidity environment, with expectations of continued monetary easing supporting bond market sentiment [10] - The overall market liquidity remains stable ahead of the upcoming Spring Festival, with a focus on the central bank's liquidity tools [10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a shift from a previous bullish trend to a more volatile market environment, recommending a focus on sectors like photovoltaic, commercial aerospace, and precious metals for medium to long-term investments [12] - The commodity market is expected to undergo a period of consolidation after rapid declines, with potential for upward movement in precious metals in the medium to long term [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy developments to identify investment opportunities [12]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 完善发电侧容量电价机制，2025 年新增光伏 /风电装机 315/119GW 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2026 年 02 月 02 日 执业证书：S0600522030002 renyx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 《寒潮退潮，美气价格高位回落；欧 洲&国内气价相对平稳》 2026-02-02 《关注火箭可回收路径中稀缺耗材， 九丰能源推进剂特气份额&价值量提 升，全国冬季用电负荷首破 14 亿千 瓦》 证券分析师 袁理 2026-01-27 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周核心观点：1）《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》发布。国 家发展改革 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·公用事业 公用事业行业点评报告 发电侧容量电价机制完善，容量机制扩围提 比，调节性资产价值重塑 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 执业证书：S0600522030002 renyx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 《关注火箭可回收路径中稀缺耗材， 九丰能源推进剂特气份额&价值量提 升，全国冬季用电负荷首破 14 亿千 瓦》 2026-01-27 《供暖需求+供应中断担忧，全球气价 上涨；关注商业航天可回收路径中稀 缺耗材，九丰能源推进剂特气份额& 价值量提升》 2026-01-25 东吴证券研究所 1 / 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 事件：国家发展改革委、国家能源 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 执业证书：S0600522030002 renyx@dwzq.com.cn 公用事业行业跟踪周报 完善发电侧容量电价机制，2025 年新增光伏 /风电装机 315/119GW 行业走势 -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 《寒潮退潮，美气价格高位回落；欧 洲&国内气价相对平稳》 2026-02-02 《关注火箭可回收路径中稀缺耗材， 九丰能源推进剂特气份额&价值量提 升，全国冬季用电负荷首破 14 亿千 瓦》 2026-01-27 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周核心观点：1）《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》发布。国 家发展改革 ...