祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250916：高位整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/9/16 指标 | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 0.00% | | 9,000.00 | | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 8,800.00 | 0.63% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 元/吨 | | 200.00 | -55.00 | | 元/千克 N型多晶硅料 | | 50.05 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 53,545.00 | -0.12% | | 基差 元/吨 | | -3,495.00 | 65.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,000.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,050.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 元/吨 | ...

文 | 宁夏回族自治区发展改革委 9 月 12 日 ， 宁 夏 回 族 自 治 区 发 展 改 革 委 关 于 公 开 征 求 《 建 立 发 电 侧 容 量 电 价 机 制 的 通 知 （征求意见稿）》意见的公告发布。 实施范围 暂包括合规在运的公用煤电机组、电网侧新型储能，均不含直流配套电源。 执行容量电价机制的煤电机组、电网侧新型储能清单 由国网宁夏电力公司梳理汇总，书 面报送自治区发展改革委审核后发布，清单根据实际情况动态调整。 容 量 电 费 确 定 煤 电 机 组 、 电 网 侧 新 型 储 能 容 量 电 费 由 有 效 容 量 、 容 量 电 价 标 准 和 容 量 供 需 系 数 三 者 乘 积 确 定 。 （ 一 ） 有 效 容 量 。 煤 电 机 组 的 有 效 容 量 根 据 煤 电 机 组 铭 牌 容 量 扣 除 厂 用 电 后 确 定 ； 电 网 侧 新 型 储 能 的 有 效 容 量 根 据 满 功 率 放 电 时 长 / 6 × 额 定 功 率 并 扣 除 厂 用 电 后 确 定 。 总 有 效 容 量 为 煤 电 机 组 、 电 网 侧 新 型 储 能 、 风 电 、 光 伏 ...

Group 1 - As of July 16, 12 listed companies in the thermal power sector have released performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 8 companies expecting year-on-year net profit growth and 3 companies anticipating a turnaround to profitability, primarily driven by lower thermal coal prices [1] - Guangdong Baoliwa New Energy Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 520 million to 580 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.08% to 58.48%, attributed to increased electricity consumption and reduced operating costs due to falling coal prices [1] - Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 1.754 billion to 2.087 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.18% to 57.27%, driven by improved efficiency and reduced fuel and financing costs [1] Group 2 - Guangzhou Hengrun Enterprise Group Co., Ltd. anticipates a net profit of 178 million to 258 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 94% to 181%, due to rising investment income and lower coal prices [2] - The Gansu Provincial Development and Reform Commission has proposed a new pricing mechanism for power generation capacity, setting an initial price of 330 yuan per kilowatt per year for coal power units and new energy storage, which is a significant increase from the previous 100 yuan [2] - The thermal power industry is transitioning towards high-efficiency and low-carbon technologies, exploring integration with energy storage to meet energy transition demands, enhancing the value of thermal power assets [3]

Macro - In June 2025, China's export growth rate rose to 5.8%, driven by resilience in non-U.S. exports and "export grabbing" strategies towards the U.S. [4] - Looking ahead, the postponement of tariff deadlines to August 1 may sustain demand for Chinese exports, although global trade volumes are expected to decline if tariff policies are fully implemented [4] - Overall, China's exports may face slight pressure in the second half of the year, primarily due to a decline in global trade volumes rather than direct exports to the U.S. [4] Banking - In June 2025, loan issuance surged, with a slight year-on-year decrease in RMB loans for the first half of the year; corporate loans played a stabilizing role while retail credit showed seasonal growth [5] - New social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the end of May [5] - M1 and M2 growth rates were revised upward, with the M2-M1 gap narrowing, indicating potential for continued positive performance in the banking sector [5] Materials - The price of polysilicon has increased for the first time in three months, while the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide reached a 19-month high, indicating a positive outlook for the metal new materials sector [6] - Lithium prices have dropped to around 60,000 yuan per ton, with potential for accelerated capacity clearance; companies with cost advantages and resource expansion in the lithium sector are recommended for attention [6] - The extension of the cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo by three months highlights ongoing strategic value in rare earth materials [6] Energy - Gansu Province has released a draft notice on establishing a capacity price mechanism for power generation, which is expected to benefit thermal power across the country, especially in regions with high wind and solar capacity [7] Company Updates - Chengzhi Shareholding (000990.SZ) anticipates a significant decline in net profit for H1 2025, projecting a net profit of 15 million to 22 million yuan, down 88.24% to 91.98% year-on-year [8] - Aohua Endoscopy (688212.SH) has received domestic certification for its new generation 4K ultra-high-definition endoscope system AQ-400 series, which is expected to drive growth upon market launch [9] - Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.SZ) has received approval for its Qifang Nasal Tablets in Macau, marking a significant achievement in its R&D efforts, with expectations for improved performance throughout 2025 [10]