Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a potential increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [9]. Core Insights - The adjustment of the spot electricity price cap in Ningxia from 0.56 yuan/kWh to 0.8 yuan/kWh highlights the ongoing shortage of regulating power sources, suggesting a positive outlook for regulating power [2][4]. - The report notes that the lack of peak regulation units in northern power plants should lead to an increase in industry valuations [4]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Ningxia's spot electricity price cap was raised to 0.8 yuan/kWh, reflecting the ongoing issues with regulating power supply [4]. - The new pricing mechanism for electricity in Ningxia includes a capacity price of 165 yuan/kW·year starting January 2026, which will be shared among all industrial and commercial users [4]. Regional Insights - The mechanism electricity price in Ningxia is set at 0.2197 yuan/kWh, lower than Shandong's 0.225 yuan/kWh, indicating regional pricing disparities [4]. - The report discusses the limitations imposed by Guangdong's policy on photovoltaic mechanism electricity, which may restrict the growth of solar energy in the region [4]. Statistical Overview - In August, total electricity generation reached 936.3 billion kWh, showing a year-over-year increase of 1.6% [4]. - The year-to-date electricity generation for industrial enterprises was 6,419.3 billion kWh, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.5% [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon price is in high - level consolidation. The supply side has potential disturbances, and the short - term price may maintain high - level consolidation, but there is a risk of a price drop if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase slightly, and the price is also in high - level consolidation. The high inventory of downstream raw materials makes it difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term, which may suppress the price [1]. 3. Summary by Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) was stable at 9,500 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.63% to 8,800 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions (such as Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan) remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: As the silicon price rises, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans; the organic silicon market has supply fluctuations, and silicon alloy enterprises purchase as needed with low inventory - building willingness [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt range - bound operations, buy out - of - the - money put options, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.12% to 53,545 yuan/ton. The prices of N - type silicon wafers (210mm, 210R, 183mm) increased, while the prices of some battery cells and components remained flat [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon material enterprises continue to cut production, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output. The trading volume in the polysilicon market has increased significantly, and inventory has decreased. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase faces resistance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly buying on dips [1]. Industry News - On September 11, the IPO application of China Power Construction New Energy Group Co., Ltd. was accepted. The company plans to raise 9 billion yuan and drive a total investment of 48.481 billion yuan in wind and solar power projects, with an expected new installed capacity of 8.46 million kilowatts [1]. - On September 12, the Ningxia Development and Reform Commission solicited opinions on establishing a generation - side capacity price mechanism. The capacity price standards for coal - fired power units and grid - side new energy storage will be 100 yuan/kilowatt - year from October to December 2025 and 165 yuan/kilowatt - year from January 2026 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment of a capacity pricing mechanism for power generation in Ningxia, aimed at promoting a new energy system and supporting green and low-carbon energy transformation [7][9]. Group 1: Implementation Scope - The mechanism will initially include compliant public coal power units and new energy storage on the grid side, excluding direct current supporting power sources [10]. - The list of coal power units and new energy storage that will execute the capacity pricing mechanism will be compiled by the State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Company and submitted for review [10][11]. Group 2: Capacity Fee Determination - The capacity fee for coal power units and new energy storage will be determined by the product of effective capacity, capacity price standard, and capacity supply-demand ratio [11]. - Effective capacity for coal power units is calculated by deducting auxiliary power from the rated capacity, while for new energy storage, it is based on the full power discharge duration divided by 6 times the rated power [11]. - The capacity price standard will be 100 yuan per kilowatt per year from October to December 2025, increasing to 165 yuan per kilowatt per year starting January 2026 [11]. Group 3: Capacity Supply-Demand Ratio - The capacity supply-demand ratio is defined as the ratio of capacity demand to total effective capacity, with capacity demand calculated based on the maximum value of the previous year's system net load curve [4][11]. - If the capacity supply-demand ratio exceeds 1, it will be capped at 1 [4]. Group 4: Fee Settlement and Distribution - The State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Company will calculate and settle the capacity fee monthly [12]. - The capacity fee will be proportionally shared among all industrial and commercial users based on their monthly electricity consumption and the monthly electricity delivery of power generation companies [13]. Group 5: Capacity Fee Assessment - If a coal power unit cannot provide output as per dispatch instructions and its maximum output is less than 95% of effective capacity, penalties will be applied [14]. - New energy storage units will also face penalties for non-operation during the month, affecting their eligibility for future capacity fees [14]. Group 6: Other Matters - The notification will take effect from October 1, 2025, and will be adjusted according to national policy changes [15].

Group 1 - As of July 16, 12 listed companies in the thermal power sector have released performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 8 companies expecting year-on-year net profit growth and 3 companies anticipating a turnaround to profitability, primarily driven by lower thermal coal prices [1] - Guangdong Baoliwa New Energy Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 520 million to 580 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.08% to 58.48%, attributed to increased electricity consumption and reduced operating costs due to falling coal prices [1] - Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd. forecasts a net profit of 1.754 billion to 2.087 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.18% to 57.27%, driven by improved efficiency and reduced fuel and financing costs [1] Group 2 - Guangzhou Hengrun Enterprise Group Co., Ltd. anticipates a net profit of 178 million to 258 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 94% to 181%, due to rising investment income and lower coal prices [2] - The Gansu Provincial Development and Reform Commission has proposed a new pricing mechanism for power generation capacity, setting an initial price of 330 yuan per kilowatt per year for coal power units and new energy storage, which is a significant increase from the previous 100 yuan [2] - The thermal power industry is transitioning towards high-efficiency and low-carbon technologies, exploring integration with energy storage to meet energy transition demands, enhancing the value of thermal power assets [3]

Macro - In June 2025, China's export growth rate rose to 5.8%, driven by resilience in non-U.S. exports and "export grabbing" strategies towards the U.S. [4] - Looking ahead, the postponement of tariff deadlines to August 1 may sustain demand for Chinese exports, although global trade volumes are expected to decline if tariff policies are fully implemented [4] - Overall, China's exports may face slight pressure in the second half of the year, primarily due to a decline in global trade volumes rather than direct exports to the U.S. [4] Banking - In June 2025, loan issuance surged, with a slight year-on-year decrease in RMB loans for the first half of the year; corporate loans played a stabilizing role while retail credit showed seasonal growth [5] - New social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the end of May [5] - M1 and M2 growth rates were revised upward, with the M2-M1 gap narrowing, indicating potential for continued positive performance in the banking sector [5] Materials - The price of polysilicon has increased for the first time in three months, while the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide reached a 19-month high, indicating a positive outlook for the metal new materials sector [6] - Lithium prices have dropped to around 60,000 yuan per ton, with potential for accelerated capacity clearance; companies with cost advantages and resource expansion in the lithium sector are recommended for attention [6] - The extension of the cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo by three months highlights ongoing strategic value in rare earth materials [6] Energy - Gansu Province has released a draft notice on establishing a capacity price mechanism for power generation, which is expected to benefit thermal power across the country, especially in regions with high wind and solar capacity [7] Company Updates - Chengzhi Shareholding (000990.SZ) anticipates a significant decline in net profit for H1 2025, projecting a net profit of 15 million to 22 million yuan, down 88.24% to 91.98% year-on-year [8] - Aohua Endoscopy (688212.SH) has received domestic certification for its new generation 4K ultra-high-definition endoscope system AQ-400 series, which is expected to drive growth upon market launch [9] - Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.SZ) has received approval for its Qifang Nasal Tablets in Macau, marking a significant achievement in its R&D efforts, with expectations for improved performance throughout 2025 [10]