价格下行拖累业绩，在建项目稳步推进 扬农化工（600486.SH）/化工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 09 月 11 日 | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------| | | | [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） [Table_Industry] | | 47.81 | | 分析师：孙颖 | | 执业证书编号： S0740519070002 | | sunying@zts.com.cn | 分析师：王鹏 执业证书编号：S0740523020001 Email：wangpeng07@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------|--------| | | | | [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 407 | | 流通股本 ( 百万股 ) | 403 | | 市价 ( 元 ) | 47.81 | | 市值 ( 百万元 ) | 19,445 | | 流通市值 ( 百万元 ) | 19,261 | [股 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a non-GAAP net profit of 3.11 billion yuan in Q2 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.38%, indicating significant cost-saving measures [4][5] - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 56.99 billion yuan, down 19.36% year-on-year, primarily due to a continuous decline in product sales prices [5] - The company aims to maintain market share while implementing precise services and flexible pricing strategies to capture orders [5] - The company is accelerating project construction and has entered trial production for the first phase of the Huludao project [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 25.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.70% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit of 3.11 billion yuan, down 15.38% [4] - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 24.23%, a decline of 2.61 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.40%, down 2.51 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company completed cost savings of 226 million yuan in the first half of the year [4] Sales and Market Strategy - The company sold 50,000 tons of raw materials in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 3.27% year-on-year, with revenue of 33.23 billion yuan, down 26.40% year-on-year, and an average price drop of 23.91% [5] - The company’s subsidiary, Youjia, reported revenue of 25.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.57 billion yuan, down 18.3% year-on-year [5] Project Development - The company is focusing on high-quality project execution, with the first phase of the Huludao project entering trial production and the second phase in the installation stage [5] - The Jiangsu Youjia project is expanding with an annual production capacity of 3,000 tons of pyrazole ester [5] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 13.67 billion yuan, 16.58 billion yuan, and 20.25 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.36 yuan, 4.08 yuan, and 4.98 yuan [5][6] - The reasonable value range for the company is estimated at 50.4 to 60.48 yuan based on a PE ratio of 15-18 times for 2024 [5]

重要内容提示： https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 江苏扬农化工股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 投资者可于 2024 年 09 月 03 日(星期二)至 09 月 09 日(星期一)16:00 前登 录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱 stockcom@yangnongchem.com 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的 问题进行回答。 证券代码：600486 证券简称：扬农化工 公告编号：临 2024-044 江苏扬农化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 8 月 27 日发 布公司 2024 年半年度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年半 年度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2024 年 09 月 10 日下午 15:00-16:00 举 行 2024 年半年度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、说明会类型 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing performance pressure with a significant decline in revenue and profit due to a drop in pesticide product prices. In 1H24, the company achieved total revenue of 5.699 billion yuan, down 19.36% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 763 million yuan, down 32.10% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of raw materials decreased by 23.91% year-on-year, while the sales volume increased by 3.3%. The average selling price of formulations fell by 8.39% year-on-year, with a sales volume decrease of 1.7% [1] - The global crop protection market demand is expected to recover, with the company likely to benefit from the bottoming out of pesticide raw material prices and a gradual return to normal pricing in the end market [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company reported total revenue of 5.699 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.36% year-on-year, and a net profit of 763 million yuan, down 32.10% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 2.523 billion yuan, down 1.70% year-on-year and 20.55% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average selling price of raw materials was 66,500 yuan per ton, down 23.91% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 50,000 tons, up 3.3%. The average selling price of formulations was 42,900 yuan per ton, down 8.39% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 28,100 tons, down 1.7% [1] Market Outlook - The pesticide raw material prices are expected to stabilize at the bottom, and the global crop protection market demand is anticipated to continue recovering. As of August 25, 2024, the raw material price index was 74.85 points, down 18.8% year-on-year, indicating a smaller decline [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the pesticide industry, with expectations of increased demand as inventory depletion in overseas markets nears completion [2] Future Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 1.294 billion yuan, 1.634 billion yuan, and 1.915 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16X, 13X, and 11X [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.699 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 19.36%, and a net profit of 763 million yuan, down 32.10% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a sluggish market for agricultural chemicals, with prices for pesticide products falling significantly [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of industry demand and the completion of ongoing projects, which will contribute to future revenue growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company's raw material prices fell by 23.91%, leading to a revenue drop of 26.40% to 3.323 billion yuan [2]. - The formulation segment saw an 8.39% decline in product prices, resulting in a revenue decrease of 9.95% to 1.204 billion yuan [2]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 2.61 percentage points to 24.23% due to falling prices [2]. Market Outlook - The agricultural chemical industry is currently experiencing low demand and high inventory levels, with prices at historical lows [2]. - A recovery in overseas markets is anticipated, which may lead to a rebound in pesticide prices and improved revenue and profit levels for the company [2]. Project Development - The company is progressing with new project capacities, including the Youjia and Liaoning Youchuang projects, which are expected to contribute positively to performance [2]. - The Youjia project has completed its second phase and is ramping up production, while the Liaoning project is in the trial production phase [2]. Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit is projected to be 1.407 billion yuan, 1.665 billion yuan, and 1.922 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.46 yuan, 4.10 yuan, and 4.73 yuan [2][6]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [4][22]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.699 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 19.36%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 763 million yuan, down 32.10% year-on-year [7][8]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a drop in raw material prices, although sales performance improved in the second quarter [8][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the production increase from the new base in Huludao, which is projected to contribute significant growth in the next 2-3 years [21][22]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a sales revenue of 56.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.68 billion yuan year-on-year, with the breakdown of revenue from raw materials, formulations, trade, and other businesses being 33.23 billion, 12.04 billion, 10.86 billion, and 0.86 billion yuan respectively [8][10]. - The average selling price of raw materials decreased by 23.91% year-on-year to 66,500 yuan/ton, while the average price for formulations fell by 8.39% to 42,900 yuan/ton [11][20]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 24.2%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [20]. Sales and Production - The company sold 50,000 tons of raw materials in the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 3.27% year-on-year, while the sales volume for formulations was 28,100 tons, down 1.71% year-on-year [10][11]. - In the second quarter, sales volumes for raw materials and formulations increased by 5.5% and 37.4% year-on-year, respectively [10][11]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.62 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.42 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [22][24]. - The new Huludao project has a budgeted investment of 3.48 billion yuan and is expected to significantly enhance the company's growth trajectory [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yangnong Chemical (600486.SH) [2][4] Core Views - The pesticide industry is experiencing a downturn, but the company demonstrates resilience against risks [2] - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 763 million yuan, down 32.10% [2] - The company is advancing its projects, with the Huludao project entering trial production [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pesticide industry is facing increased competition and market differentiation due to global oversupply [2] - Factors such as geopolitical issues, shipping disruptions, extreme weather, and adverse market conditions have led to a decline in product prices and sales volume [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the average sales price for raw materials and formulations was 66,500 yuan and 42,900 yuan, respectively, down 23.91% and 8.39% year-on-year [2] - The company achieved production of 49,300 tons of raw materials and 24,000 tons of formulations, with sales of 50,000 tons and 28,100 tons, reflecting a decline in revenue of 26.4% and 9.95% respectively [2] Cost Management - The company benefited from a decrease in raw material prices, with liquid alkali, liquid potassium, potassium carbonate, and hydrobromic acid prices dropping by 14.8%, 27.9%, 22.9%, and 40.1% respectively [2] - Cost control measures led to savings of 226 million yuan in H1 2024, mitigating the impact of price declines [2] Project Development - The company is focused on deep integration within the industry, with significant investment in the Huludao project, totaling 520 million yuan in fixed asset investment in H1 2024 [3] - The first phase of the large-scale fine chemical project has entered trial production, with the second phase's infrastructure nearing completion [3] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 4.12 yuan, 4.86 yuan, and 5.67 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.8, 10.0, and 8.6 [4]

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|扬农化工（600486） 农药景气低迷，短期业绩承压 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布半年报，2024H1 实现营业收入 57 亿元，同比-19%；实现归母净利润 7.6 亿元，同比 -32%。上半年业绩下滑主要是农药行业景气持续低迷，量价下行所致。2024H1 公司原药销量 约 5 万吨，同比-3%，原药均价 6.65 万元/吨，同比-24%。2024Q2 公司原药销量约 2.5 万吨， 同比+5%，原药均价 6.39 万元/吨，同比-8%。 |分析师及联系人 许隽逸 申起昊 SAC：S0590524060003 SAC：S0590524070002 扬农化工(600486) 农药景气低迷，短期业绩承压 | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------------------| | 行 业： | 基础化工/农化制品 | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 48.76 元 | | 基本数据 | | | 总股本/流通股本(百万股 | 406.71/402.87 | | 流通 A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining pesticide prices, with a significant drop in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year [2][3] - The company is progressing well with its YouChuang project, which has entered trial production, potentially expanding its capacity and product range [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 763 million yuan, down 32.1% [2] - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.523 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year and 20.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 334 million yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year and 22.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] Business Segments - The raw material business generated revenue of 3.323 billion yuan, down 26.4% year-on-year, with sales volume of 50,000 tons, a decrease of 3.3% [3] - The formulation business reported revenue of 1.204 billion yuan, down 10.0% year-on-year, with sales volume of 28,000 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [3] Project Development - The YouChuang project in Huludao is planned to produce 15,650 tons of pesticide raw materials and 7,000 tons of pesticide intermediates annually, with a total investment of 4.248 billion yuan [3] - As of June 2024, the project has entered trial production, with significant construction progress reported [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to ongoing challenges in the pesticide industry and price declines, the profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 1.285 billion yuan (down 27.2%), 1.590 billion yuan (down 21.9%), and 1.928 billion yuan (down 16.8%) respectively [3]

基础化工/农化制品 Q2 业绩符合预期，葫芦岛一期一阶段进入试生产 扬农化工（600486.SH） 2024 年 08 月 27 日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |--------------------------|--------------------------| | 金益腾（分析师） | 徐正凤（分析师） | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | xuzhengfeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790524070005 | Q2 业绩同环比承压，以扬农加速度高质量推进葫芦岛一期项目投产 公司发布 2024 年中报，营收 56.99 亿元，同比-19.36%；归母净利润 7.63 亿元， 同比-32.10%；扣非净利润 7.38 亿元，同比-31.78%。其中 Q2 营收 25.23 亿元， 同比-1.70%、环比-20.55%；归母净利润 3.34 亿元，同比-9.62%、环比-22.17%； 扣非净利润 3.11 亿元，同比-15.38%、环比-27.09%。考虑农药价格持续下跌致盈 ...