Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share liquor sector experienced a significant surge, with a rise of 9.68% on January 29, leading the market performance for the day [1][2] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector also saw a notable increase of 8.18%, with a total transaction volume of 32.31 billion [2] - The precious metals sector rose by 8.04%, with a transaction volume of 70.62 billion, indicating strong market interest [2] Group 2: Energy and Petrochemical Sector Dynamics - The energy and petrochemical sector's rise began in early January 2026, with domestic crude oil futures rebounding from 411 yuan/barrel to 475 yuan/barrel, a 15% increase [4] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector has accumulated a remarkable increase of 44.22% year-to-date, ranking second in market performance, only behind precious metals [7] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has shown a cumulative increase of 14.71% since the beginning of the year, reflecting strong investor interest [9] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The recent surge in the petrochemical sector is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, raising concerns over oil supply stability [11] - The market has priced in a risk premium of $3-8 per barrel due to fears of potential disruptions in oil supply from Iran, which produces approximately 3.3 million barrels per day [11] - The classic rotation pattern in commodity markets, where precious metals lead, followed by industrial metals and then energy, is being validated again [14][16] Group 4: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to gain market attention as commodity prices rise, driven by increased costs in agricultural production due to higher energy prices [17][24] - The CPI and food prices have shown signs of recovery, with the CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential shift in consumer price dynamics [18] - The agricultural ETF (516810) tracks a comprehensive index covering the entire agricultural value chain, which may benefit from the rising commodity prices [26] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry is at a turning point, with new policies aimed at preventing excessive competition and improving profitability [22] - The capital expenditure ratios in the refining and chemical sectors are showing a trend towards conservatism, indicating a strategic shift among companies [23] - The anticipated recovery in the petrochemical sector is supported by both geopolitical factors and the broader commodity market dynamics, suggesting a favorable outlook for industry leaders [24][25]

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 1.56% on January 29, with Nongda Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the agricultural chemical sector included: - Guangxin Co., Ltd. (Code: 6655209) with a closing price of 15.50, up 10.01% and a trading volume of 779,400 shares, totaling 1.156 billion yuan [1] - Limin Co., Ltd. (Code: 002734) closed at 20.99, up 6.98% with a trading volume of 835,600 shares, totaling 1.696 billion yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Nongda Technology (Code: 920159) with a closing price of 46.05, down 12.93% and a trading volume of 81,600 shares, totaling 3.81 billion yuan [2] - Zhongnong United (Code: 003042) closed at 22.87, down 10.00% with a trading volume of 455,700 shares [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 1.974 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.463 billion yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Limin Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 1.89 billion yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 819.96 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Guangxin Co., Ltd. experienced a net inflow of 139 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 668.65 million yuan from retail investors [3]

资料来源： Wind ，中银证券 以 2026 年 1 月 23 日收市价为标准 化工行业 2026 年度策略 行业周期拐点已近，新材料蓄势腾飞 基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 年度策略 2026 年 1 月 28 日 强于大市 公司名称 股票代码 股价 评级 兴发集团 600141.SH 人民币 42.25 买入 扬农化工 600486.SH 人民币 76.80 买入 投资建议 评级面临的主要风险 油价大幅波动，"反内卷"执行不及预期，环保政策变化带来的风险，国际贸易政策发生变化。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 2025 年化工行业景气度处于低位。展望 2026 年，本轮行业扩产已近尾声，"反内卷"等 措施有望催化行业盈利底部修复，同时新材料受益于下游需求的快速发展，有望开启新一 轮高成长。当前行业估值处于低位。维持行业强于大市评级，推荐三条投资主线。 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 支撑评级的要点 证券分析师：徐中良 zhongliang.xu@bo ...

Core Viewpoint - Yangnong Chemical has shown a significant increase in stock price and trading volume, indicating positive market sentiment and potential growth in the agricultural chemical sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 21, Yangnong Chemical's stock rose by 2.05%, reaching 75.67 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.60 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.53%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 30.671 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 9.05%, with a 10.39% rise over the last five trading days, 12.10% over the last 20 days, and 16.38% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yangnong Chemical reported a revenue of 9.156 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.23%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.055 billion CNY, up by 2.88% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 2.833 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.137 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yangnong Chemical was 16,900, a decrease of 6.49% from the previous period, with an average of 23,883 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 7.24% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fourth largest, holding 14.2374 million shares, a decrease of 2.0554 million shares from the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others [10]. Core Insights - Domestic gasoline and natural gas prices have seen significant increases, while products like hydrochloric acid and liquid chlorine have experienced substantial declines. The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The international oil prices are expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties. Companies with high dividend characteristics, such as Sinopec, are expected to benefit from declining raw material costs [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak state, with mixed performance across sub-sectors. However, certain sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected, indicating potential investment opportunities [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report highlights significant price increases for domestic gasoline (11.38%) and natural gas (8.68%), while products like liquid chlorine (-18.02%) and hydrochloric acid (-13.79%) have seen notable declines [19][20]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that may enter a recovery phase, such as glyphosate, and suggests specific companies for investment [22]. Market Performance - The report notes that the chemical industry is currently facing a weak overall performance, with varying results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - It recommends monitoring companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additives and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the price trends of various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with some products rebounding while others continue to decline [20][22]. - It also discusses the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices, which in turn affect the chemical industry [23][24]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others, all rated as "Buy" [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the upcoming export tax rebate cancellation on various companies in the glyphosate industry, highlighting their strategies to mitigate cost pressures and capitalize on market opportunities. Group 1: Company Strategies and Advantages - Xingfa Group, a leading player in the phosphate chemical industry, benefits from a complete supply chain and cost control, allowing it to quickly pass on cost pressures post-export tax rebate cancellation [1][19] - Yangnong Chemical, a leader in the biorational pesticide sector, plans to shift towards high-value formulation exports, leveraging its strong overseas registration and channel networks [2][20] - Hebang Biotechnology has a high self-sufficiency rate in raw materials, which helps it mitigate cost increases and capture orders during overseas inventory replenishment cycles [3][19] - Runfeng Co., a prominent pesticide exporter, can quickly adjust its product structure to high-value formulations, benefiting from its global partnerships and supply chain flexibility [4][20] - Xin'an Chemical, known for its integrated production model, significantly reduces costs and enhances flexibility in price transmission through its dual production of organic silicon and glyphosate [5][21] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Taihe Co. focuses on raw material production and aims to expand its market share by optimizing production costs and enhancing its domestic formulation market presence [6][22] - Andermatt Biocontrol, a global leader in pesticide formulations, plans to leverage its strong R&D capabilities and global network to maintain market leadership post-tax rebate changes [7][24] - Lier Chemical, with a complete R&D and production system, aims to enhance its market position through technological upgrades and a stable raw material supply chain [8][25] - Nopson, a leading pesticide formulation company, is expected to strengthen its domestic market position by quickly adapting to changes in export pressures [9][26] - Jiangshan Co., a top glyphosate producer, is positioned to benefit from its scale and technological advantages, allowing it to consolidate market share amid industry restructuring [10][28] Group 3: Industry Trends and Challenges - The glyphosate industry is experiencing consolidation, with companies poised to capture market share from smaller players exiting the market due to increased competition and regulatory pressures [11][29] - Companies are focusing on technological advancements and product iterations to address challenges such as glyphosate resistance and to enhance their competitive edge [12][30] - The shift towards high-value formulations and domestic market focus is a common strategy among companies to mitigate the impact of the export tax rebate cancellation [13][34]

Group 1 - The glyphosate concept sector rose by 3.46%, ranking third among concept sectors, with 16 stocks increasing in value, including Lier Chemical which hit the daily limit, and Jiangshan Co., Yangnong Chemical, and Hongtaiyang with increases of 7.62%, 5.36%, and 4.12% respectively [1][2] - The glyphosate concept sector saw a net inflow of 274 million yuan from main funds, with 10 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in net inflow, led by Lier Chemical with a net inflow of 103 million yuan [2][3] - The top net inflow ratios for main funds were Lier Chemical at 16.27%, Hongtaiyang at 16.12%, and Nuofushin at 14.41% [3][4] Group 2 - The trading performance of Lier Chemical showed a daily increase of 10.01% with a turnover rate of 5.01%, while Jiangshan Co. had a notable increase of 7.62% with a turnover rate of 4.74% [3][4] - Other companies in the glyphosate sector, such as Xingfa Group and Nuofushin, also reported positive daily increases of 2.70% and 3.72% respectively, indicating a strong interest from investors [3][4] - The overall market sentiment towards the glyphosate sector appears positive, as evidenced by the significant net inflows and the performance of key stocks within the sector [2][3]

Group 1 - The agricultural chemical sector increased by 3.25% on January 19, with Lier Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the agricultural chemical sector showed significant price increases, with Lier Chemical rising by 10.01% to a closing price of 16.38 [1] Group 2 - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net inflow of 639 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 370 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Baiao Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng attracted substantial institutional investment, with net inflows of 160 million yuan and 154 million yuan, respectively [3] - Lier Chemical had a notable institutional net inflow of 117 million yuan, despite a significant outflow from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strength, with the Chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a price increase of 2.73% as of the latest update [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector include Haohua Technology, which reached the daily limit, and Junzheng Group, which surged over 9%, along with other notable gains from companies like Luxi Chemical and Huafeng Chemical [1][2] - Since 2025, the Chemical ETF has shown a cumulative increase of 47.53%, significantly outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (22.38%) and the CSI 300 Index (20.25%) [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry has seen negative growth in capital expenditure since 2024, but the "anti-involution" trend and the clearing of outdated overseas capacities are expected to lead to a contraction in supply [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which is anticipated to drive growth in chemical product demand, especially with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [4] - A potential turning point for the chemical industry is expected in 2026, with a shift from valuation recovery to earnings growth, referred to as the "Davis Double Play" [4] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong investment opportunities [5] - The ETF also includes exposure to various sub-sectors such as phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and others, providing a comprehensive investment approach within the chemical sector [5] - The fund does not charge a sales service fee, with specific subscription and redemption fee structures outlined for investors [5][6]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strength, with the Chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a price increase of 2.73% as of the latest update [1][8] - Key stocks in the sector include Haohua Technology, which reached the daily limit, and Junzheng Group, which surged over 9%, along with other notable gains from companies like Luxi Chemical and Huafeng Chemical [1][8] - Since 2025, the Chemical ETF has shown a cumulative increase of 47.53%, significantly outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (22.38%) and the CSI 300 Index (20.25%) [10][11] Group 2 - The chemical industry has faced negative growth in capital expenditure since 2024, but the "anti-involution" trend and the accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity are expected to lead to a contraction in supply [12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which is anticipated to drive growth in chemical product demand, especially with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [12] - The chemical industry may experience a cyclical turning point in 2026, transitioning from valuation recovery to earnings growth, referred to as the "Davis Double Play" [12] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong investment opportunities [13] - The ETF also diversifies its holdings across key sectors such as phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, fluorine chemicals, and other leading stocks in the chemical sector [13] - Investors can also access the Chemical ETF through linked funds, which have specific subscription and redemption fee structures [5][14]