Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, coupled with growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a significant increase during the South American planting season, followed by a decline due to high North American inventories [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices have shown an upward trend, with the average price at 3,282 RMB/ton by the end of December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.45% [1][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 1,040 RMB/ton in Hubei and 970 RMB/ton in Yunnan [2][50]. - The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 48.59% expected in 2025 [2][51]. Pesticides - The glyphosate market is expected to see price improvements in 2026, following a period of price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and inventory levels [4][49]. - The report highlights several key companies in the pesticide sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from rising prices and demand [8][49]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong potassium and phosphate resources, such as Yara International and Yun Tianhua, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand and supply dynamics in the agricultural chemical sector [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, alongside growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate. The domestic supply-demand situation for phosphate rock is tightening, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining elevated [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a peak during the South American planting season and a subsequent decline due to high North American inventories. The report anticipates a recovery in glyphosate prices in 2026 [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices are projected to stabilize around 3,100-3,200 CNY/ton, with expectations of maintaining high inventory levels for food security [24][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over three years. The report highlights the increasing demand from lithium battery applications [2][50]. - Phosphate chemical prices have shown upward trends for products like lithium iron phosphate, while glyphosate prices have decreased significantly [49][51]. Pesticides - The report suggests a potential recovery in the pesticide sector, particularly for glyphosate and its derivatives, as the industry undergoes restructuring to improve profitability [4][8]. - Companies such as Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical are highlighted as key players in the pesticide market, with recommendations for investment [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Yangnong Chemical's stock price has shown fluctuations with a recent decline of 2.03%, while the company has experienced a year-to-date increase of 3.07% in stock price, indicating mixed market sentiment [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yangnong Chemical achieved a revenue of 9.156 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.055 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.88% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 2.833 billion yuan, with 1.137 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yangnong Chemical decreased by 6.49% to 16,900, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 7.24% to 23,883 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 14.2374 million shares, a decrease of 2.0554 million shares from the previous period. New entrants include Penghua CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, a leading player in the domestic pesticide industry, is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of pesticide prices and the ramp-up of its Youchuang project, leading to potential growth in both volume and price [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company, established in 1999 and backed by Syngenta Group, is a top-tier player in the agricultural chemical sector in China, specializing in pyrethroid active ingredients [2]. - It is a core supplier of pyrethroid products globally, with a comprehensive product range including insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, and plant growth regulators, achieving a total production capacity exceeding 100,000 tons [2][4]. - The company has nearly 70 varieties of active ingredients and anticipates production and sales of raw materials to reach 96,913.34 tons and 99,872.64 tons respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.67% and 3.50% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The pesticide market is experiencing a supply-demand optimization, with prices stabilizing and rebounding after significant declines since 2022 [3]. - The agricultural price index has shown a recovery trend, with the raw material index reflecting improvements in various categories, including herbicides [3]. - The implementation of stricter regulations, such as the "one product, one certificate" policy, is expected to benefit leading companies with abundant registration certificates [3]. Group 3: Project Developments - The Youchuang project is set to enhance production capacity, increasing the output of high-efficiency chlorfenapyr from 5,500 tons/year to 8,500 tons/year, thereby solidifying the company's position in the pyrethroid market [1][3]. - The company is also advancing a technical transformation project for 3,000 tons of pyrazole ester, which is expected to contribute additional revenue [3]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - The company is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.86% in net profit attributable to shareholders over the next three years, with a target price of 84.70 yuan based on a 22x PE ratio for 2026 [4].

Group 1 - The agricultural chemical sector increased by 0.98% on December 30, with Yuntianhua leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, showing no change, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 [1] - Key stocks in the agricultural chemical sector included Yuntianhua, which rose by 3.81% to a closing price of 33.82, and Zhejiang Yi, which increased by 3.56% to 10.18 [1] Group 2 - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a net outflow of 153 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 244 million yuan [2] - Notable declines in the sector included Guoguang Co., which fell by 5.59% to 13.17, and Ying Tai Biological, which decreased by 1.77% to 3.88 [2] - The trading volume for the agricultural chemical sector was significant, with Yuntianhua recording a trading volume of 671,000 shares [1][2] Group 3 - Yuntianhua had a net inflow of 35.64 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 59.10 million yuan [3] - Other companies like Hongda Co. and Hubei Yihua also saw positive net inflows from institutional investors, indicating varied investor sentiment across the sector [3] - The overall market sentiment reflected a mixed performance, with some stocks gaining while others faced declines [2][3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector has regained momentum, with the chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a price increase of 1.4% after a low opening, reaching a maximum intraday gain of 1.63% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Xin Fengming, saw significant gains, with Hengyi Petrochemical rising over 6% and others increasing by more than 5% [1][2] - A recent conference on the high-quality development of the fertilizer industry highlighted the industry's transition towards quality and efficiency, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 2 - According to Huaxin Securities, the chemical industry remains in a weak position overall, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants have exceeded expectations [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a price-to-book ratio of 2.57, which is considered relatively reasonable based on historical data, suggesting potential for medium to long-term investment [3] - According to Everbright Securities, the basic chemical industry is expected to see strong demand from new materials, particularly in emerging applications like AI and OLED, which will drive growth in core materials such as photoresists [5] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, which provides an opportunity to capitalize on strong market leaders [5] - The ETF also includes significant positions in sectors like phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, as well as fluorine chemicals, allowing for a comprehensive approach to investment opportunities in the chemical sector [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.79%) and industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.78%), while sulfur and liquid chlorine experienced notable declines [4][7]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [6][18]. - The overall chemical industry remains under pressure, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report recommends paying attention to the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, suggesting potential investment in companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [21]. - It also emphasizes selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [21]. - The report notes that domestic demand for chemical fertilizers and certain pesticide sub-products remains robust, with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heartlink Fertilizer being highlighted for investment [21]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - The report details recent price movements, with significant increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate and PTA, while products like sulfur and liquid chlorine saw declines [4][5][19]. - It mentions that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material cost reductions [6][18]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, particularly the situation in Venezuela and the EU's sanctions on Russia, which have contributed to recent price fluctuations [22][23]. - It highlights the weak trading atmosphere in the coal market, with prices declining due to limited demand and cautious market sentiment [29][30]. - The report notes that the polypropylene market is experiencing downward pressure due to weak demand and increased supply, while the PTA market is expected to remain strong due to ongoing inventory reduction [31][35].

Core Viewpoint - Yangnong Chemical announced the repurchase and cancellation of 73,591 restricted stocks held by 14 incentive targets due to their departure or inability to unlock shares based on personal performance results [1] Group 1 - The repurchase and cancellation of restricted stocks is in accordance with the "Management Measures for Equity Incentives of Listed Companies" and the company's "2022 Restricted Stock Incentive Plan" [1] - The cancellation date for the repurchased stocks is set for January 5, 2026 [1]

| 回购股份数量（股） | 注销股份数量（股） | | 注销日期 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 73,591 | 73,591 | 2026 | 年 | 1 月 | 5 | 日 | 证券代码：600486 证券简称：扬农化工 编号：临 2025-044 江苏扬农化工股份有限公司 股权激励限制性股票回购注销实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 回购注销原因：江苏扬农化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）14 名 激励对象因离职（包含集团内部工作调动）或退休无法解锁，或因个人绩效结果 无法完全解锁，根据《上市公司股权激励管理办法》（以下简称"《管理办法》"）、 公司《2022 年限制性股票激励计划》（以下简称"《激励计划》"）相关规定， 其持有但尚未达到解除限售条件的 73,591 股限制性股票应由公司进行回购并注 销。 本次注销股份的有关情况 一、本次限制性股票回购注销的决策与信息披露 1、2025 年 10 月 24 ...

国浩律师（南京）事务所 关 于 江苏扬农化工股份有限公司 2022 年限制性股票激励计划 回购注销部分已授予限制性股票的 法律意见书 中国江苏省南京市汉中门大街 309 号 B 座 5、7-8 层 邮编：210036 5、7-8/F, Block B, 309 Hanzhongmen Street, Nanjing, China, 210036 电话/Tel: +86 25 8966 0900 传真/Fax: +86 2589660966 网址/Website: http://www.grandall.com.cn 二〇二五年十月 | 第一节 律师声明的事项 3 | | | --- | --- | | 第二节 | 正 文 5 | | 一、 本次回购注销的授权与批准 5 | | | （一）本次激励计划已履行的决策程序 5 | | | （二）本次回购注销已履行的决策程序 8 | | | 二、 本次回购注销的具体情况 8 | | | （一）本次回购注销的原因及依据 8 | | | （二）本次回购注销的数量、回购价格及调整说明 9 | | | 三、 结论意见 11 | | | 第三节 签署页 12 | | 国浩律师( ...