证券日报网12月16日讯扬农化工（600486）在12月12日回答调研者提问时表示，根据当前市场环境判 断，预计明年的产品价格仍然会低于项目可行性研究报告中的测算值，部分品种价格出现超跌。尽管项 目建设进展顺利，产能释放进度符合预期，但价格下降对投资回报率产生不利影响。葫芦岛项目最终投 资回报率仍将主要取决于未来市场供需与价格走势，公司将坚持满产满销策略，持续优化运营与成本控 制，确保产品成本竞争力，以高质量投资推动高质量发展。 ...

证券日报网12月16日讯扬农化工（600486）在12月12日回答调研者提问时表示，氟唑菌酰羟胺已于去年 成功产出合格产品，并于今年开展批量生产。该产品是先正达的专利化合物，目前该产品主要根据先正 达的订单需求进行生产。随着先正达在全球范围内的登记布局不断推进，预计未来相关订单需求将逐步 提升。该产品是先正达的专利化合物，按照定制加工模式协商定价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the market price of pyrethroid products is influenced by changes in supply and demand dynamics as well as raw material costs, which presents an opportunity for the company to improve profitability and support sustainable industry development [1] Company Summary - The company possesses a complete industrial chain and supporting capabilities for pyrethroid products, enabling it to effectively respond to market fluctuations and seize price recovery opportunities [1] - Previous prices for products such as Kungfu pyrethroid and biphenyl pyrethroid were at historical lows, and the current price rebound is expected to enhance overall industry profitability [1] - The company plans to closely monitor market supply and demand changes, dynamically optimize sales strategies based on production capacity and order status, and strive for reasonable profit margins while maintaining customer relationships and market share [1] - Long-term product prices will continue to be determined by market supply and demand [1] - The company aims to enhance competitiveness through technological innovation and cost control, actively participating in market competition [1]

证券日报网12月16日讯扬农化工（600486）在12月12日回答调研者提问时表示，整体上没有较大变化。 中国中化与先正达集团作为公司控股股东，在遵循上市公司治理规则的基础上，充分尊重扬农化工的独 立法人地位与经营自主权，持续推进公司规范治理、合规运行，公司重大决策依据公司章程及董事会决 议执行，日常经营管理始终保持独立运作。公司始终面向全球市场开展业务，为全球客户提供优质服 务，致力于实现可持续高质量发展。 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry report indicates a mixed performance in chemical product prices, with 42 products increasing in price, 37 decreasing, and 21 remaining stable during the week of December 8-14 [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials amid price increases [1][6] Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 8-14, 47% of tracked chemical products saw a month-on-month price increase, while 44% experienced a decrease, and 9% remained unchanged [2] - The top price increases were noted in nitric acid, sulfuric acid, raw salt, bisphenol A, and TDI, while the largest declines were in PVA, LLDPE, trichloroethylene, and NYMEX natural gas [2] Oil Market Overview - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $57.44 per barrel (down 2.45%) and Brent crude at $61.12 per barrel (down 2.19%) [3] - The U.S. oil production averaged 13.853 million barrels per day, an increase of 38,000 barrels from the previous week and 222,000 barrels from the same period last year [3] - U.S. oil demand rose to an average of 21.082 million barrels per day, with gasoline demand increasing to 8.456 million barrels per day [3] TDI Market Analysis - TDI prices increased to an average of 14,713 yuan/ton, up 2.49% week-on-week and 5.51% month-on-month [4] - TDI production decreased, with an overall operating rate of approximately 58.55%, and various factories experiencing operational issues [4] - Average costs for TDI were 11,819 yuan/ton, down 0.92% week-on-week, while average gross profit rose by 31.79% week-on-week [4] Methionine Market Analysis - Methionine prices decreased to an average of 17,900 yuan/ton, down 2.45% week-on-week and 9.14% month-on-month [5] - The production remained stable at 18,350 tons, with an operating rate of 89.42% [5] - The cost of methionine was 13,853.73 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 23.67% [5] Valuation Metrics - As of December 12, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector was 24.14, and the price-to-book ratio was 2.19 [6] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector had a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 12.85 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.24 [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued leading companies, sectors benefiting from policy support, and emerging fields such as semiconductor materials and new energy materials [6] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [6][7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月12日 创制农药行业专题 优于大市 中国创制农药有望迎来"Me too "到"Me better 农药：非专利药市场占比高，专利药盈利水平高。2024 年全球农药市场规模 约 772 亿美元，十年复合增速 2.35%。据印度作物联合会（CCFI）数据，2022 年非专利农药在全球农药市场的份额已达到历史新高 93%，而专利农药的占 比仅为 7%。目前国内农药企业主要是为国外跨国制剂企业配套生产农药原 药，行业盈利受全球农化库存周期影响大，且多数非专利农药原药面临产能 过剩问题，农药企业盈利水平低下，抗风险能力较差。与四大跨国农化巨头 相比，国内农药企业的毛利率偏低，商业模式有待升级。 核心观点 行业研究·行业专题 基础化工·农化制品 新农药创制：难度持续提升。进入 21 世纪以来全球每十年引入的新农药活 性成分数量显著下降，目前成功上市 1 个新农药品种平均需要筛选约 16 万 个化合物，耗资约 3 亿美元，耗时约 12 年，反映出新农药创制难度提升， 研发周期拉长。新农药发展方向：高效、低毒、低成本。 中国农药行业实力全球领先，已具备新农药创制基础。中国已成为全球最大 的农 ...

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

Core Insights - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a slight increase of 0.38% on December 10, with Yara International leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900.5, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13316.42, up 0.29% [1] Agricultural Chemical Sector Performance - Yara International (000893) closed at 46.94, up 2.78% with a trading volume of 90,100 shares [1] - YunTu Holdings (002539) closed at 10.86, up 2.26% with a trading volume of 136,400 shares [1] - Salt Lake Industry (000792) closed at 25.63, up 1.99% with a trading volume of 543,000 shares [1] - Other notable performers include BaTian Co. (002170) up 1.44%, Jiangshan Co. (600389) up 1.43%, and HongTaiYang (000525) up 1.39% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 410 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 410 million yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in Yara International (000893) with 18.52 million yuan and New Yangfeng (000902) with 8.72 million yuan [2] - Conversely, significant net outflows from institutional investors were noted in Sichuan Meifeng (000731) and Hualu Hensheng (600426) [2]

Group 1 - The glyphosate concept sector declined by 0.86%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sectors, with leading decliners including Runfeng Co., Xin'an Chemical, and Lier Chemical [1] - Among the concept stocks, four stocks experienced price increases, with Zhongnong United, Hongtaiyang, and Nuobixin rising by 1.40%, 0.34%, and 0.09% respectively [1] - The main capital outflow from the glyphosate concept sector was 42 million yuan, with nine stocks experiencing net outflows, led by Xingfa Group with a net outflow of 21.78 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The top three stocks with the largest capital outflows included Xin'an Chemical with a net outflow of 18.10 million yuan, Hebang Biotechnology with 12.91 million yuan, and Lier Chemical with 11.36 million yuan [1] - Stocks with the highest capital inflows included Runfeng Co. with 8.66 million yuan, Nuobixin with 7.98 million yuan, and Jiangshan Co. with 6.62 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for the top outflowing stock, Xingfa Group, was 1.95%, while the highest inflow stock, Runfeng Co., had a turnover rate of 0.47% [2]

| 序号 代码 类型 名称 | | 现价 涨跌幅 ▼ 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 159851 主 金融科技ETF | | 0.814 c 3.56% 10.37亿 | | 2 1 | 159231 | 314.70万 0.588 c 2.62% = | | 3 159876 - 主 有色龙头ETF | | 0.926 c 2.55% 5068.03万 | | 4 1 | 512000 行 券商ETF | 0.571 c 2.51% 18.01亿 | | ഗ | 512810 主 国防军工ETF | 0.695 c 2.36% 1.33亿 | | 主 化工ETF | 6 516020 | 0.801 c 1.39% 8526.62万 | 分析人士认为，从中短期交易的角度来看，当下应该已经进入到交易年报业绩的阶段。而从确定性为 看，涉及算力的行业和非银（特别是券商）业绩确定性较高，另外由于"反内卷"，新能源相关行业可能 也会有较大增长。创业板和非银可能值得关注。 此外，市场对于2026年的行情预期依然是"慢牛"。华金证券认为，2026年可能是盈利结构性回升下的慢 牛行情。展望20 ...