供给端：近年国内新增产能集中释放，叠加跨界产能陆续投产，供应总量持续攀升，据国家统计局数 据，2025 年1-6 月全国化学农药产量同比增长10%。同时，印度农化企业产能扩张，其出口份额及对特 定品种的定价影响力不断提升，持续挤压国内企业国际市场空间。需求端：据TradeMap，2025 年H1中 国农药类产品出口180.68 万吨，同比+15.72%。 出口金额49.02 亿美元，同比+13.38%。截至2025 年8 月23 日，公司主要产品草甘膦、联苯菊酯、烯草 酮、麦草畏、三唑酮、苯醚甲环唑、氯氰菊酯、吡唑醚菌酯、高效氯氟氰菊酯市场价格分别为2.69、 12.65、12.25、5.4、5.2、8.7、7.5、15、10.65 万元/吨，较年初分别+13.95%、-1.17%、 +63.33%、-6.9%、持平、-7.45%、15.38%、-6.25%、-1.39%。 事件描述 2025 年8 月22 日，公司发布2025 年半年度报告。公司2025 年上半年实现营收62.34 亿元，同比 +9.38%；实现归母净利润8.06 亿元，同比+5.60%；实现扣非归母净利润7.96 亿元，同比+7.86%。 ...

中金发布研报称，2025年3月以来草甘膦价格稳步上行，且5月以来上行趋势加速，8月末价格较年内低 点已上涨约24%至2.73万元/吨。短期维度，草甘膦价格或有望于4Q25上行至3万元/吨，主要考虑：需求 端，由于北美需求旺季将于10月开始，由于跨国农化企业库存已基本消纳至正常水平，4Q25草甘膦需 求有望维持在较高水平；供给端，考虑到工程建设进度，江山股份于贵州投建的5万吨/年草甘膦产能于 2025年内投产概率较低，4Q25新增供应较少，短期供需关系有望维持相对紧平衡。 中金主要观点如下： "反内卷"催化叠加供需格局好转，3月以来草甘膦价格持续反弹 2025年3月以来草甘膦价格稳步上行，且5月以来上行趋势加速，8月末价格较年内低点已上涨约24%至 2.73万元/吨。3月-4月的价格上行主因在3月13日草甘膦行业召开反内卷会议，叠加3月17日起2025年 CAC农化展开幕，草甘膦生产企业逐步进行限产协同，价格出现低位反弹。 受益于价格向好，草甘膦企业盈利近期也出现较为明显改善，截至8月29日，中国草甘膦价格2.73万元/ 吨，测算甘氨酸法价差修复至约1.36万元/吨，较3月约9000元/吨的价差出现明显提升，若 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 09 月 01 日 扬农化工（600486.SH） 以量补价，公司 1H25 业绩稳中有进，看好辽宁优创产能爬坡 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 11,478 | 10,435 | 11,832 | 13,429 | 14,397 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -27.4 | -9.1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 7.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,565 | 1,202 | 1,419 | 1,665 | 1,915 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -12.8 | -23.2 | 18.1 | 17.3 | 15.0 | | ROE（%） | 16.2 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 13.2 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 3.85 | 2.96 | 3.49 | 4.09 | 4.71 | | P/E（倍） | 19.3 | 25.1 | 21.3 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Yangnong Chemical has shown a significant increase in stock price and financial performance, indicating strong market interest and operational growth. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 1, Yangnong Chemical's stock price increased by 2.00% to 74.92 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 30.372 billion CNY [1] - The stock has risen 31.00% year-to-date, with a 5.15% increase over the last five trading days, 10.42% over the last 20 days, and 26.26% over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yangnong Chemical reported revenue of 6.234 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 806 million CNY, up 5.60% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.735 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.04 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 6.01% to 18,100, while the average number of tradable shares per person increased by 6.40% to 22,271 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 754,800 shares to 16.293 million shares [3]

事件 2025 年上半年，公司实现营业收入62.3 亿元，同比+9.4%；归母净利润8.1 亿元，同比+5.6%；扣非归 母净利润8.0 亿元，同比+7.9%。其中2025Q2 实现营业收入29.9 亿元，同比+18.6%，环比-7.6%；归母 净利润3.7 亿元，同比+11.1%，环比-14.7%；扣非归母净利润3.7 亿元，同比+17.5%，环比-15.0%。 辽宁优创项目顺利推进，有望贡献利润增量 公司在葫芦岛布局了优创基地一期新建年产15650 吨原药和7000 吨中间体项目，2025H1 优创一阶段项 目已调试产品全部达产达效。2025H1 辽宁优创实现营收5.5亿元，净利润38.9 万元，已逐步开始贡献利 润，未来有望持续贡献利润增量。 利润同比增长，仍具较强韧性 2025 年上半年，农化行业受地缘政治、关税冲击、市场内卷等多重因素影响持续低迷，主要产品价格 持续阴跌，而公司从抢抓市场订单、推动辽宁优创满产满销等方面入手，上半年销量、销售额均实现逆 势增长。2025H1 公司原药实现营收36.6亿元（YoY+10%），产量5.8 万吨（YoY+17%），销量5.7 万吨 （YoY+13%），均价6 ...

Market Performance - The three major indices experienced cumulative gains this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 4.36%, and the ChiNext Index up by 7.74% [1] - Over 1,700 stocks saw price increases, particularly in the chip, semiconductor, and rare earth permanent magnet sectors [1] Index Details - Shanghai Composite Index: +0.37%, closing at 3,828 points with a trading volume of 1,221.7 billion [3] - Shenzhen Component Index: +0.99%, closing at 12,696 points with a trading volume of 1,576.6 billion [3] - ChiNext Index: +2.23%, closing at 2,890 points with a trading volume of 763.8 billion [3] Notable Stocks - The stock "Kaipu Cloud" surged by 133.74%, leading the gains, while 33 stocks increased by over 30% this week [4][5] - The communication sector had the highest number of stocks with over 30% gains, totaling 6 stocks, followed by the computer sector with 5 stocks [4] Trading Activity - 80 stocks had a turnover rate exceeding 100%, with "Chuanrun Shares" leading at 229.85% [6][7] - The computer, basic chemicals, machinery, and communication sectors had a significant presence among stocks with high turnover rates [6] Fund Flows - No industry saw net inflows from major funds this week, with 11 industries experiencing net outflows exceeding 10 billion [8] - "Gaoer Shares" received the highest net inflow at 1.921 billion, while "Langchao Information" faced the largest net outflow at 3.241 billion [8] Margin Trading - "Shenghong Technology" topped the list for net margin purchases with 4.528 billion, followed by "Hanwuji-U" and "Zhongxin International" with 3.031 billion and 2.868 billion respectively [11][12] Institutional Research - "Mairui Medical" attracted the most attention from institutions, with 397 institutions participating in its research [13][14] - The sectors of focus for institutional research included pharmaceuticals, electronic components, chemicals, and photovoltaics [13] New Institutional Interests - 131 stocks received initial attention from institutions this week, with "Yangnong Chemical" receiving a "Buy" rating and a target price of 93.52 yuan [16][17] - Other stocks like "Tai Ling Micro" and "Dazhu CNC" also garnered initial interest from multiple institutions [16]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the chemical industry is entering a new phase of capital expenditure, with a focus on the rebalancing of supply and demand following the release of production capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][6] - The report indicates that the bottom of the cycle is becoming clearer, with potential price increases for chemical products driven by demand recovery and supply stability in the second half of the year [2][6] Industry Overview - The current cycle has reached its tail end, with a total of 12 quarters of decline since Q3 2022, following a 7-quarter expansion from Q4 2020 to Q2 2022 [10][12] - The report outlines that the chemical industry has experienced three significant price fluctuation cycles since 2010, with the latest cycle characterized by a demand-driven recovery followed by a supply-side pressure [8][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with relatively low valuations, such as sucralose (recommended: Jinhe Industrial), pesticides (recommended: Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares), and MDI (recommended: Wanhua Chemical) [3][4] - It highlights the importance of domestic demand in countering tariff impacts, recommending companies in refrigerants and fertilizers [3][4] - The report identifies investment opportunities in sectors with upcoming capacity releases, such as organic silicon (recommended: Xin'an Chemical) and spandex [3][4] Price and Profitability Trends - The report notes that many sub-industry product prices remain at historical lows, with specific prices for spandex, PA6, and other fibers at 0%, 4%, and 5% of historical levels respectively [28] - It mentions that the chemical industry has seen a slight recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, although the overall performance remains under pressure [27][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the global chemical capital expenditure is on a downward trend, with domestic companies experiencing a slowdown in investment while still facing significant pressure to convert projects into fixed assets [22][32] - It also states that both domestic and international markets are entering a replenishment phase in 2025, which may influence inventory levels and pricing strategies [35][36]

Core Insights - The social security fund has invested in 396 stocks by the end of Q2, with 37 stocks held for over 20 consecutive quarters, indicating a focus on long-term investments [1][2] Group 1: Investment Trends - The social security fund has consistently held shares in 204 stocks for over four quarters, with 132 stocks held for more than two years [1] - The longest-held stock is Hualu Hengsheng (华鲁恒升), held for 51 quarters since Q4 2012, with a total holding of 133 million shares, accounting for 6.26% of the circulating shares [1][4] - Other long-term holdings include Zhongyuan Media (中原传媒) and WoW Bio (我武生物), held for 44 and 43 quarters respectively [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Among the 37 stocks held for over five years, the top holdings by quantity are Changshu Bank (常熟银行) with 206 million shares, Sun Paper (太阳纸业) with 151 million shares, and Hualu Hengsheng with 133 million shares [2] - The stocks with the highest holding ratios include Keri International (科锐国际) at 6.30%, Hualu Hengsheng at 6.26%, and Changshu Bank at 6.23% [2] - In terms of changes in holdings, 12 stocks saw an increase in holdings, with significant increases for Three Squirrels (三只松鼠) at 283.29%, Hongfa Co. (宏发股份) at 76.77%, and Hangyang Co. (杭氧股份) at 42.03% [2] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The 37 stocks are concentrated in the basic chemical, electronics, and automotive industries, with 7, 3, and 3 stocks respectively [3] - The basic chemical sector includes Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical (扬农化工), and Blue Sky Technology (蓝晓科技) [3] - The electronics sector includes Transsion Holdings (传音控股), Pengding Holdings (鹏鼎控股), and XW Communication (信维通信) [3] Group 4: Financial Performance - Among the 37 stocks, 24 reported year-on-year profit growth, with notable increases from China Jushi (中国巨石) at 75.51%, Jieput (杰普特) at 73.84%, and New Hecheng (新和成) at 63.46% [3] - Conversely, 12 stocks experienced a decline in net profit, with the largest decreases from Zhongqi Co. (中旗股份) at 240.99%, Sanyou Chemical (三友化工) at 77.64%, and Three Squirrels at 52.22% [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing presence of global sovereign wealth funds in the A-share market, with notable funds such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Kuwait Investment Authority, and Singapore Government Investment Corporation appearing among the top ten shareholders of several A-shares [1][2] - As of the end of Q2 this year, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority held 19 A-shares with a total of 376 million shares valued at 8 billion yuan, showing significant increases compared to the end of Q1 [1][2] - Kuwait Investment Authority holds 8 A-shares with a total of 100 million shares valued at 1.98 billion yuan, having recently entered the top ten shareholders of companies like Giant Star Technology and Kunming Pharmaceutical Group [2] Group 2 - Recent data indicates a notable increase in international capital interest in the A-share market, with nearly 60% of sovereign wealth funds planning to increase their allocation to Chinese assets over the next five years, driven by attractive investment returns and market diversification [2] - The Chief Investment Officer of Allianz Fund, Zheng Yuchen, stated that China is demonstrating leading advantages in areas such as artificial intelligence, which is gaining global recognition, thereby enhancing domestic and international investor confidence [3]

优创项目稳步推进，南北布局巩固公司龙头地位。辽宁优创一期第一阶段项目快速推进产能爬坡，已调 试产品全部达设计产能。优创项目已被列入中国中化"十四五"规划重点建设项目，1H25 辽宁优创实现 营收5.52 亿元，预计到2026 年实现年营业收入15 亿元，净利润1 亿元，预计到2030 年实现年营业收入 40 亿元，净利润5 亿元。优创项目的推进有助于解决子公司沈阳科创目前面临的瓶颈问题，优化公司的 生产布局，形成南北均衡布局，打开远期成长空间，巩固公司龙头地位。 投资建议：展望后市，海外市场库存低位，新周期备货启动将推动部分产品需求恢复，同时政策引导行 业集中度提升，产能出清后中期价格将有上升空间，农药产品毛利率将逐步恢复上升，公司有望受益于 农药行业底部修复带来的需求增量。同时，公司优创项目有望带来新一轮成长，预计公司25-27年归母 净利润分别为13.4、15.2、17.4 亿元，同比增速为+11.62%、+13.65%、+13.86%，对应PE 分别为21、 19、16 倍，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 事件：8 月21 日晚，公司发布2025 年半年度报告。1H25 公司实现营业总收入62.34 亿元，同比 ...