辽宁优创开启新一轮成长。葫芦岛一期包括年产4500吨杀虫剂、8050吨除草剂和3100吨杀菌剂、7000吨 农药中间体。据公司2024年年报，辽宁优创一期投资预算数34.8亿元，累计投入已达80%，其中，一阶 段已经建成，正在陆续进行调试生产，功夫菊酯、烯草酮等多个品种已拿出合格产品，二阶段正在设备 安装阶段。此外，公司正在加快编制葫芦岛二期项目清单。 自主研发+先正达赋能，打造领先农药创制平台公司自主创制水平领先，形成"农研公司+扬农化工本 部"的创制平台。据2024年年报，在我国年销售额超过亿元的6个自主创制品种中，公司有3个。 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、跟踪下游制剂库存数据、粮食作物价格，判断农药需求复苏，周期 见底回升；2、详细梳理扬农各工厂主要产品供需情况，行业扩张进入尾声，一体化配套的低成本优势 使公司具有超越同行的底部利润。 终端去库叠加粮价企稳，农药需求回暖，原药价格见底2021-2022年行业超额采购，制剂巨头先正达、 安道麦库存金额在2022下半年达到最高点，富美实的库存金额则在2023Q2达到峰值，库存/营业收入的 比例则普遍在2023Q3达到最高点。2024年底，三家农化企业库存 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 3.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 435 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.35% [1] - The industry is gradually stabilizing, and the company experienced good sales growth in Q1, particularly in its raw materials business, which was the main driver of revenue growth [1][2] - The company maintained good cost control, with a reduction in total expenses compared to the previous year, positively impacting net profit [3] - The company is advancing its projects in Liaoning, which are expected to optimize product layout and create new growth points for sustainable development [3] Financial Summary - For 2025-2027, the projected net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.47 billion yuan, 1.78 billion yuan, and 2 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive growth outlook [3] - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated at 12.86 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 23.23% compared to 2024 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 3.61 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.44 [5] Sales and Pricing - In Q1, the company achieved sales volumes of 28,700 tons for raw materials and 15,400 tons for formulations, representing increases of 14.8% and 2.8% year-on-year respectively [2] - The average prices for raw materials and formulations in Q1 were 63,000 yuan and 56,600 yuan, showing declines of 8.8% and 1.6% year-on-year [2] Cost Control and Project Development - The company reduced its sales expenses by approximately 1.65 million yuan year-on-year, while management and R&D expenses increased [3] - The first phase of the Liaoning project has been completed and is in the process of trial production, with several products already meeting quality standards [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with revenue of 3.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 435 million yuan, up 1.35% year-on-year [1] - Despite a decline in product sales prices, the company demonstrated strong cost control, and the new Liaoning project is expected to contribute positively to future performance [6] - The agricultural chemicals industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, but the company is expected to show resilience and potential for profit growth as market conditions improve [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 11.478 billion yuan in 2023, 10.435 billion yuan in 2024, and expected growth to 11.732 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12% [2][9] - The company's net profit is projected to be 1.565 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 1.202 billion yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 1.349 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding EPS of 3.85 yuan, 2.96 yuan, and 3.32 yuan respectively [2][10] - The current PE ratio is 13.3 for 2023, increasing to 17.3 in 2024, and then decreasing to 15.4 in 2025, indicating a potential undervaluation in the coming years [10] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's raw material revenue reached 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with sales volume up 14.8% to 28,700 tons, despite a sales price drop of 8.8% [6] - The company's comprehensive gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 24.6% in Q1 2025, reflecting effective cost management [6] Project Development - The company is advancing its innovative pesticide development, with significant progress on the Liaoning project, which is expected to enhance production capabilities and product offerings [6] - The company aims to complete the first phase of the Liaoning project ahead of schedule, with multiple products already yielding qualified outputs [6]