Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential recovery in polyester and refining sectors [2][14]. Core Insights - The EIA has revised down its natural gas price forecasts due to rising inventories, with the third-quarter price expected at $3.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and the fourth quarter at $3.99 MMBtu [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas inventories reached 30,060 billion cubic feet, significantly above the five-year average, indicating a clear accumulation trend [6]. - Oil prices have shown an upward trend, with Brent crude futures closing at $70.36 per barrel, reflecting a 3.02% increase week-over-week [18]. - The report anticipates a downward adjustment in oil prices due to widening supply-demand dynamics, although OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support may maintain prices at mid-high levels [2][18]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - The EIA has lowered its natural gas price forecasts for Q3 and Q4 2025, with average prices expected at $3.67 and $4.41 per MMBtu for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - U.S. natural gas production reached 11.68 billion cubic feet per day in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 billion cubic feet per day [6]. - Solar power is increasingly substituting natural gas in electricity generation, with a projected 3% decline in gas-fired generation in 2025 [11]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI prices rose to $68.45 per barrel, with weekly average prices showing gains of 2.34% and 2.44%, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 426 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 229 million barrels [19]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 537, down 2 from the previous week and 47 year-on-year [29]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $13.70 per barrel, reflecting a decline of $0.31 per barrel week-over-week [50]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust downward, with domestic refining product margins still at low levels [48]. Polyester Sector - The report highlights a recovery expectation in the polyester sector, with improved profitability anticipated as supply-demand dynamics stabilize [14]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [14]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream exploration and production sector, particularly offshore oil service firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering, which are projected to see performance improvements [14].

Core Points - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has successfully delivered 24 sets of 2000-meter deep international suction anchors for the Mero Phase II project in Brazil, marking a significant achievement in deepwater engineering [2] - The suction anchors, which utilize negative pressure to secure marine facilities, are essential for deep-sea energy development and are recognized for their high efficiency, reusability, and load-bearing capacity [2] - The project represents the largest application depth for suction anchors constructed domestically, with a total structural weight of approximately 2674 tons [2] Technical Innovations - The Mero Phase II suction anchors feature a maximum construction height of 21 meters, a diameter of 8 meters, and a wall thickness of only 25 millimeters, presenting substantial construction challenges [3] - The project team pioneered several construction techniques, including horizontal extension and vertical assembly, and employed advanced technologies such as 3D scanning and finite element simulation to address technical difficulties [3] - The quality assurance rate exceeded 99.9%, with dimensional deviations maintained within 1 millimeter per meter, achieving an industry-leading standard [3] Industry Contributions - CNOOC has been enhancing its core technologies in deepwater oil and gas equipment, successfully constructing several significant platforms, including the world's first 100,000-ton semi-submersible production and storage platform [3] - The company has also delivered multiple large-scale floating production storage and offloading units (FPSOs) internationally, contributing to the global deepwater oil and gas equipment market and promoting high-level cooperation in marine energy [3]

Group 1 - The China Securities Index series includes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Index, and CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Comprehensive Index, categorized into 11 industries to reflect the overall performance of different industry securities [1][2] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Energy Index has shown a 2.88% increase over the past month, a 7.73% increase over the past three months, and a 6.22% decrease year-to-date [1] - The top ten holdings in the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Energy Index include China Coal Energy (11.12%), Jereh Oilfield Services (6.61%), Meijin Energy (4.44%), and others [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Small Comprehensive Energy Index is distributed as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 52.20%, Shenzhen Stock Exchange 24.29%, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange 23.51% [2] - The industry composition of the index shows that coal accounts for 37.32%, coke for 18.96%, fuel refining for 12.62%, oil and gas extraction for 12.35%, and oilfield services for 9.14% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for specific companies within the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - OPEC has announced an unexpected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, but the actual impact of this increase remains to be observed [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $68.3 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.78% [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show varied trends [4][47]. - The polyester sector is facing profitability challenges, but there are expectations for recovery as supply and demand improve [4][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - OPEC's actual production increase has been lower than expected, with April's total production at approximately 31.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels from the previous month [4][8]. - The U.S. oil rig count decreased to 539, down 8 from the previous week and down 46 year-on-year [31][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to stabilize at mid-high levels due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [4][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $14.01 per barrel, down $2.46 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $22.37 per barrel, up $0.53 from the previous week, with a historical average of $24.86 per barrel [56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels [4][47]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has seen a decline, with the average price in East China at 4,971.4 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week [4][13]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the polyester industry, with expectations for improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics shift positively [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][13]. - It also suggests that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with high capital expenditure expected to continue, particularly for offshore oil service companies [4][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The international three major institutions (IEA, EIA, OPEC) have adjusted their forecasts for global crude oil supply, demand, and inventory in 2025 in their June reports. The average forecast for inventory change is flat compared to last month, while the supply forecasts have increased, and the demand forecasts have mixed changes. Non - OECD countries, represented by China, are expected to be the main contributors to the global crude oil demand growth in 2025 [2][99][111]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 global crude oil inventory changes to be +110, +82, and - 132 barrels per day respectively, with changes of -10, -5, and +15 barrels per day compared to May 2025 forecasts. The average forecast for 2025 inventory change is +20 barrels per day, unchanged from last month's average [2]. 3.2 Global Crude Oil Supply 3.2.1 Global Crude Oil Supply Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil supply to be 10490, 10434, and 10382 barrels per day respectively, an increase of 190, 159, and 147 barrels per day compared to 2024. Compared to May 2025 forecasts, the increases are 30, 22, and 4 barrels per day respectively [16]. 3.2.2 Global Major Regional Crude Oil Supply Situations - **Three - institution Regional Supply Increment Forecasts**: IEA expects the 2025 global crude oil supply increment to be concentrated in OPEC, American OECD countries, and Latin American countries; EIA expects it to be in North American and Central & South American countries; OPEC expects it to be in DoC and American OECD countries [29][31][35]. - **OPEC+**: In May 2025, the total crude oil production of 12 OPEC countries averaged 2702 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 18.3 barrels per day, due to production changes in Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. The total remaining capacity of OPEC+ is 619 barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 16 barrels per day [37][41]. - **Russia**: In May 2025, Russia's total export volume was 730 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 30 barrels per day [54]. - **USA**: EIA predicts that the average crude oil production in the US in 2025 will be 1341 barrels per day, an increase of 21 barrels per day compared to 2024 and unchanged from the May 2025 forecast. As of June 2024, the total production of the seven major shale oil producing regions in the US was 985 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 barrels per day; the shale oil production in the Permian region was 619 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 1.8 barrels per day [63][69]. 3.3 Global Crude Oil Demand 3.3.1 Global Crude Oil Demand Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil demand to be 10380, 10353, and 10513 barrels per day respectively, an increase of 80, 79, and 138 barrels per day compared to 2024. Compared to May 2025 forecasts, the changes are -10, -19, and +14 barrels per day respectively. Non - OECD countries represented by China are expected to be the main contributors to the demand increment, while OECD countries' demand growth is expected to be weak [99][111]. 3.3.2 Global Different Petroleum Product Demand Situations - IEA expects the demand for chemical oil to recover significantly in 2025. Globally, the demand for aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline is expected to increase by 13, 4, and 12 barrels per day respectively compared to 2024; the demand for LPG and ethane, and naphtha in the chemical product sector will increase by 30 and 20 barrels per day respectively. In China, the demand for chemical oil is also expected to recover, with changes in the demand for aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline being +2, -3, and -13 barrels per day respectively, and the demand for LPG and ethane, and naphtha increasing by 6 and 15 barrels per day respectively [117][119]. 3.4 Related Listed Companies - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corp. (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Development Co., Ltd. (600968.SH). Companies to be concerned about include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cease - fire of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a significant decline in international oil prices [1] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the weekly data of the US crude oil and refined oil markets, including prices, inventories, production, demand, and import - export volumes [2] - It also presents the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector and related listed companies, along with their valuations [21][24] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - The data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 3.2 This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review 3.2.1 Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance - Information on the sector's performance includes the sector's sub - industry price changes and the trend of the sector's sub - industries and the CSI 300 index [17] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [15][20] 3.2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector - The report shows the price changes of major companies in the upstream sector in different time periods (last week, last month, last three months, last year, and since the beginning of 2025) [22] - A valuation table for listed companies is provided, including share prices, total market values, net profits attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB ratios from 2024 to 2027 [24] 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.3.1 Crude Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, and the relationships between crude oil prices and the US dollar index, copper prices [29][39][43] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [30][32][34] 3.3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Examines the correlation between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, and the relationship between the weekly destocking rate of US commercial crude oil and the price change of Brent crude oil [45][46] - Presents data on US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory [48][49][53] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [45][48][49] 3.3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of active crude oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets, as well as their relationships with oil prices [57][58] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [57][59] 3.3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery operating rate, and Shandong refinery operating rate [62][64] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [63][64] 3.3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US crude oil import volume, export volume, net import volume, and the import - export volume of crude oil and petroleum products [67][70] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [68][69][70] 3.4 Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.4.1 Refined Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences between crude oil and domestic/US/European/Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as the wholesale - retail price differences of domestic gasoline and diesel [75][84][90] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [75][77][82] 3.4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Presents data on US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene inventories, and Singapore gasoline and diesel inventories [102][105][111] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [102][106][112] 3.4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production [117][118][120] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [119][120] 3.4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene consumption, and the number of airport security checks for passengers [122][125][129] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [123][126][130] 3.4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export - Analyzes the import - export situation and net export volume of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [132][135][136] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [133][136][137] 3.5 Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily rates of self - elevating and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [146][147][149] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [146][148][150]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights five key stocks for July, each representing different industries with strong growth potential and attractive valuations [1][3][4]. Group 2: Industry Summaries - **Electronics - Huakin Technology (603296.SH)**: The company is a global leader in smart product platforms, with data center business expected to ramp up in the second half of the year [3]. - **Textiles and Apparel - Zhejiang Natural (605080.SH)**: The stock is undervalued due to tariff impacts, but is seeing a recovery in orders for old products alongside new product launches, indicating high growth potential [4]. - **Social Services - Tianli International Holdings (1773.HK)**: This company is a leader in K12 private education in China, focusing on high school education and diversifying its brand influence [4]. - **Oil and Petrochemicals - CNOOC Engineering (600583.SH)**: The company benefits from overseas orders, with rapid growth in annual and quarterly performance; projected dividend yield for 2024 is close to 4% [4]. - **New Energy - Putailai (603659.SH)**: The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in lithium battery anode performance, with small-scale production orders for CVD silicon-carbon anodes and plans for production in 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester industry, particularly for polyester filament yarn, anticipating a recovery in demand due to improving Sino-US trade relations [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the expectation of a recovery in polyester filament yarn demand as Sino-US trade restrictions are anticipated to ease, potentially restoring textile and apparel exports to the US [4][5]. - It notes that US apparel wholesalers have been depleting their inventories since Q4 2022, and with the overseas economy recovering, a replenishment phase is expected to begin in 2025, further boosting filament yarn demand [4][7]. - The report emphasizes that downstream inventories for polyester filament yarn are at historically low levels, which supports a stable demand outlook despite external trade pressures [11]. - The report indicates that the valuation of polyester filament yarn companies is currently at historical lows, suggesting potential for upward movement during the seasonal peak periods [14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell to $67.77 per barrel, a decrease of 12% week-on-week, while WTI prices dropped to $65.52 per barrel, down 11.27% [22]. - US commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 415 million barrels, down 5.84 million barrels from the previous week, and are 11% lower than the five-year average [24]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend for crude oil, with expectations of price fluctuations but overall stability due to OPEC+ production cuts [4][22]. Refining Sector - The report notes an increase in the Singapore refining margin to $16.47 per barrel, up $4.89 from the previous week, indicating improved refining profitability [56]. - The report suggests that refining product margins are still low but are expected to improve as economic recovery progresses [4][53]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have been rising, with the average price in East China reaching 5,139 RMB per ton, up 1.08% week-on-week [4]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, anticipating a recovery in profitability as supply-demand dynamics improve [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies, refining firms, and offshore oil service companies, citing potential for performance improvement as market conditions stabilize [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, with a price forecast of $66 per barrel for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a trend towards a looser supply-demand balance for crude oil in 2025, with the EIA projecting a global oil supply surplus of approximately 820,000 barrels per day this year [4][19]. - The report highlights that the upstream sector is showing signs of recovery, with drilling day rates expected to increase as global capital expenditures rise [4][21]. - The refining sector is experiencing improved profitability due to rising product price spreads, although current levels remain low [4][21]. - The polyester sector is underperforming, with PTA and polyester filament profits declining, but a gradual improvement is anticipated as new capacities come online [4][21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $77.01 per barrel, a 3.75% increase week-on-week, while WTI futures rose by 1.18% to $73.84 per barrel [4][25]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 421 million barrels, down 11.47 million barrels from the previous week, marking a 10% decline compared to the same period last year [4][27]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $11.58 per barrel, up $6.18 from the previous week [4]. - The report notes that while refining product spreads have improved, they remain at low levels, with expectations for gradual enhancement as economic recovery progresses [4][21]. Polyester Sector - The report states that PTA prices have turned from decline to increase, with the average price in East China reaching 5,084 RMB per ton, a 4.69% increase week-on-week [4]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is described as average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as upstream service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [4][21][22]. - It also suggests that the polyester sector may see long-term improvements, advocating for investments in leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [4][21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector is experiencing significant price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent airstrikes by Israel on Iran, which have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions in the Middle East [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 16, 2025, key stocks in the oil and gas sector have shown substantial gains, with Taishan Petroleum up 10.07%, Intercontinental Oil and Gas up 9.88%, and Heshun Petroleum up 8.17% [1]. - The Oil and Gas ETF (159697) has increased by 0.68%, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.03 yuan [1]. - Over the week leading to June 13, 2025, the Oil and Gas ETF has accumulated a rise of 4.48% [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - On June 13, 2025, WTI and Brent crude oil futures closed at $72.98 and $74.23 per barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 16.7% and 14.9% since the beginning of the month [1]. - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the oil price is expected to enter a high volatility phase due to potential declines in Iranian oil production and exports [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The global oil demand is being impacted by the transition to electricity and gas, while supply from oil-producing countries is becoming increasingly coordinated and weaker [2]. - The oil price is projected to have a downward trend from 2025 to 2027, with a new equilibrium expected to be above $60 per barrel, driven by marginal costs and supply-side dynamics [2]. Group 4: Index Composition - The National Oil and Gas Index (399439) reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 66.48% of the index [2].