Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by high gold prices, leading to a decline in terminal consumption and a year-on-year drop in profits [2][3] - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was RMB 52.582 billion, down 15.28% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 1.776 billion, down 9.60% YoY [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was RMB 12.623 billion, down 41.89% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 372 million, down 46.20% YoY [3] - The company's gross margin narrowed and expense ratios increased in Q3 2024, leading to a decline in net profit margin [3] - The company's product craftsmanship, channel expansion, and brand potential continue to improve, with a "five-in-one" marketing model and a deep marketing network [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 62.851 billion, RMB 68.073 billion, and RMB 73.315 billion in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of -12.0%, +8.3%, and +7.7%, respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was RMB 71.436 billion, with a growth rate of 13.4%, and is expected to decline by 12.0% in 2024 [4][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was RMB 2.214 billion, with a growth rate of 30.2%, and is expected to decline by 8.7% in 2024 [4][6] - The company's EPS in 2023 was RMB 4.23, and is expected to be RMB 3.86 in 2024 [4][6] - The company's PE ratio in 2023 was 12, and is expected to be 13 in 2024 [4][6] - The company's PB ratio in 2023 was 2.3, and is expected to be 2.1 in 2024 [4][6] Industry Overview - In Q1-Q3 2024, national gold consumption was 741.73 tons, down 11.18% YoY, with gold jewelry consumption at 400.04 tons, down 27.53% YoY [3] - Gold bar and coin consumption in Q1-Q3 2024 was 282.72 tons, up 27.14% YoY, driven by the rapid development of e-commerce models such as live streaming and instant retail [3] - In Q3 2024, gold prices remained high and volatile, leading to a decline in physical gold consumption, while gold bar and coin consumption continued to grow significantly [3] Product and Channel Strategy - The company's "gold and silver fine workmanship" is exquisite, with product design showcasing "unique craftsmanship" [3] - The company employs a "five-in-one" marketing model, with a deep marketing network layout, focusing on self-operated silver buildings, joint ventures, general distributors, dealers, and specialty stores [3] - The company leverages its "century-old golden brand" to continuously enhance brand potential, with a complete industrial chain from source procurement to design, production, and sales [3]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 30 年 月 日 老凤祥（600612.SH） 终端销售波动，公司短期业绩承压 公司 2024Q3 营收下降 42%，归母净利润同比下降 46%。单 Q3 公司 营收下降 42%至 126 亿元，由于消费环境的波动叠加金价高企，我们判 断公司三季度金饰发货量或有明显下降，毛利率同比-1pcts 至 6.5%，在 当前高金价的态势下，公司或适当给予经销商拿货支持，从而导致毛利率 下降，销售费用率/管理费用率同比+0.3/0.6pcts 至 1.2%/1.1%，波动环 境下费用控制高效，综上来看公司 Q3 归母净利润同比下降 46%至 3.7 亿 元，归母净利率同比降低 0.2pcts 至 2.9%。 ➢ 2024Q1~Q3：公司营收同比下降 15.3%至 525.8 亿元，归母净利 润下降 9.6%至 17.8 亿元，年初以来国内珠宝首饰需求较弱，对公司 批发业务发货造成较大影响。 2024 年尽管消费环境波动，公司仍积极拓展市场，同时自主研发能力不 断增强。上半年公司净开 28 家老凤祥门店至 6022 家，积极布局"藏宝 金"、"凤祥喜事 ...

老凤祥股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 单位：元 币种：人民币 证券代码：600612 证券简称：老凤祥 900905 老凤祥 B 老凤祥股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告内容的真实、准确、完整，不存 在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人杨奕、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）凌晓静保证季度报告 中财务信息的真实、准确、完整。 第三季度财务报表是否经审计 □是 √否 一、 主要财务数据 （一） 主要会计数据和财务指标 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|-------------------|---------------------------------------|-------------------|---- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 46.2% year-on-year, with total revenue for the first three quarters at 52.582 billion yuan, down 15.28% year-on-year [2] - The increase in gold prices has affected the cash flow from franchisees, leading to a slight decline in gross and net profit margins [2] - The company plans to invest 840 million yuan in the Caoxi Road project, which aims to enhance its brand image and operational environment [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards due to demand suppression from rising gold prices, but maintains a "Buy" rating as the stock is considered undervalued [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 12.623 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 372 million yuan, down 46.2% year-on-year [2] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 6.52%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 3.68%, down 0.57 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's revenue forecast for 2024 is 66.434 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 2.036 billion yuan [4] Investment and Valuation Metrics - The latest closing price gives a P/E ratio of 14.40 for 2024, 13.05 for 2025, and 11.93 for 2026 [1][4] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 29.326 billion yuan, with a circulating A-share market value of about 17.777 billion yuan [6] - The company has a book value per share of 23.57 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 40.08% [7]

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was under significant pressure, with revenue and net profit declining by 15.3% and 9.6% YoY respectively [1] - Gold price fluctuations and weak consumer demand were the core factors affecting sales [1] - The company's brand heritage and state-owned enterprise reforms are expected to drive recovery, with reasonable valuation supporting the "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: 52.582 billion yuan (-15.3% YoY), net profit: 1.776 billion yuan (-9.6% YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 revenue: 12.623 billion yuan (-41.9% YoY), net profit: 372 million yuan (-46.2% YoY) [1] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast revised down to 2.024/2.180/2.388 billion yuan from 2.435/2.693/2.974 billion yuan [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 gross margin: 8.6% (+0.4pct YoY), Q3 gross margin: 6.5% (-1.0pct YoY) [2] - Q1-Q3 2024 net margin: 4.3% (+0.1pct YoY), Q3 net margin: 3.7% (-0.6pct YoY) [2] Industry and Market Conditions - July-September 2024 gold and jewelry retail sales declined by 10.4%/12.0%/7.8% YoY respectively [2] - High gold price volatility and cautious dealer inventory management impacted wholesale shipments [2] Brand and Product Strategy - Launched "Treasure Gold" and "Fengxiang Happy Events" series to rejuvenate the century-old brand [3] - Developed crossover collaborations, such as the "Lao Feng Xiang × Beast Gold Car Fragrance" which won the 2024 Shanghai Gold List Souvenir Award [3] - Expanded international presence with the opening of a Treasure Gold-themed store in Hong Kong in August 2024 [3] Valuation and Forecast - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 3.87/4.17/4.56 yuan [1] - Current PE ratio: 14.5/13.5/12.3x for 2024-2026 [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 62.387/69.897/77.112 billion yuan [4] - 2024-2026 gross margin forecast: 8.6%/8.0%/8.0% [4] - 2024-2026 net margin forecast: 4.3%/4.2%/4.1% [4]

老凤祥（600612.SH） 优于大市 行业终端景气走弱下业绩承压，继续推进机制优化 三季度整体业绩承压。公司 2024 年前三季度实现营收 525.82 亿元，同比下 降 15.28%，归母净利润 17.76 亿元，同比下降 9.6%，扣非净利润 16.98 亿 元，同比下降 14.2%。单三季度营收 126.23 亿元，同比下降 41.89%，归母 净利润 3.72 亿元，同比下降 46.2%，扣非净利润 2.39 亿元，同比下降 65.2%。 公司整体收入在三季度行业整体需求不振背景下有所下滑，低毛利的黄金交 易业务占比提升进一步影响了利润表现。 此外，公司继续推进综合改革计划，进一步优化了下属企业经理层成员任期 制和契约化管理，推动公司职业经理人制度的部署落实和改革深入。其中上 半年完成了下属 13 家企业第二批第二轮职业经理人的选聘。 产品结构变化影响毛利率，存货周转效率稳定。公司单三季度毛利率 6.52%， 同比-0.98pct，预计受金价相对高位下低毛利的黄金交易业务占比提升影 响。单三季度销售费用/管理费用分别为 1.16%/1.08%，分别同比 +0.27pct/+0.6pct，受收入下降下 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 was ¥12,622,782,772.87, a decrease of 41.89% compared to the same period last year[2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was ¥372,048,105.36, down 46.20% year-on-year[2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥238,699,442.98, a decline of 65.25% compared to the previous year[2]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q3 2024 were both ¥0.7112, reflecting a decrease of 46.20% year-on-year[3]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 319,505,593.74 CNY, a decline of 46.20% compared to the same period last year[9]. - The operating revenue for the reporting period decreased by 9,099,701,327.05 CNY, a decline of 41.89% year-on-year[9]. - The company reported a revenue of CNY 52,581,666,118.68 for the first three quarters of 2024, down from CNY 62,066,041,294.97 in the same period of 2023, representing a decrease of approximately 15.5%[16]. - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 56,203,316,515.66, a decrease of 10.5% compared to CNY 62,827,741,558.64 in the same period of 2023[20]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were ¥24,192,204,243.72, a decrease of 0.58% from the end of the previous year[3]. - The company's current assets totaled CNY 22,806,669,219.33, down from CNY 23,046,413,650.11 in the previous period[14]. - The company's total liabilities and equity amounted to CNY 24,192,204,243.72, consistent with the total assets reported[16]. - Total liabilities decreased to CNY 9,696,656,335.08 from CNY 10,598,757,357.73, reflecting a decline of approximately 8.5%[16]. - The balance of long-term borrowings decreased by 200,000,000.00 CNY, a decline of 100.00%, mainly due to reduced long-term borrowings by a subsidiary[8]. - The balance of non-current liabilities due within one year decreased by 895,308,579.75 CNY, a decline of 85.77%, primarily due to reduced long-term loans[8]. - The company's short-term borrowings decreased to CNY 5,062,576,487.69 from CNY 5,623,680,265.82, a reduction of about 10%[15]. Cash Flow - Cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date was ¥6,547,144,308.94, down 8.36% compared to the previous year[2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 6,547,144,308.94, down 8.4% from CNY 7,144,077,822.02 in the same period of 2023[20]. - Cash inflow from financing activities totaled 11,758,850,949.88 CNY, up from 8,597,074,740.90 CNY year-over-year, reflecting increased borrowing[21]. - Cash outflow for debt repayment was 13,215,164,003.50 CNY, significantly higher than 8,893,181,846.06 CNY in the same period last year, indicating a rise in debt obligations[21]. - The net cash flow from financing activities was -3,258,677,434.14 CNY, worsening from -1,815,891,320.66 CNY in the previous year, highlighting increased financial strain[21]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents increased by 3,128,829,629.77 CNY, compared to an increase of 5,292,056,349.72 CNY in the prior period, showing a slowdown in cash growth[21]. - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents reached 12,438,803,523.90 CNY, up from 10,865,172,580.91 CNY year-over-year, indicating overall liquidity improvement[21]. Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 37,580[11]. - The largest shareholder, Shanghai Huangpu District State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, holds 42.09% of the shares[11]. - The equity attributable to shareholders increased by 6.55% year-on-year, reaching ¥12,332,142,915.43[3]. - The equity attributable to the owners of the parent company increased to CNY 12,332,142,915.43 from CNY 11,573,982,195.33, marking an increase of about 6.6%[16]. Other Financial Metrics - The company received government subsidies amounting to ¥195,594,227.24 during the reporting period, contributing to its non-recurring gains[4]. - Other income increased by 189,144,792.76 CNY, a growth of 1239.92% compared to the previous period, mainly due to increased government subsidies received[8]. - The company's credit impairment losses increased by 127,839,785.41 CNY, a growth of 834.67% compared to the previous period[8]. - The company executed new accounting standards starting in 2024, which may affect future financial reporting and performance metrics[21].

第十一届监事会第十三次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 股票简称：老凤祥 股票代码：600612 编号：临 2024-029 老凤祥 B 900905 老凤祥股份有限公司 表决情况：4 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权通过了该议案。 详细内容请参考同日登载在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）及指定 信息披露媒体上的《老凤祥股份有限公司关于子公司上海老凤祥有限公司进行固 定资产项目投资的公告》，公告编号 2024-030。 特此公告。 老凤祥股份有限公司 2024 年 10 月 30 日 备查文件 老凤祥股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第十一届监事会于 2024 年 10 月 29 日召开了第十三次会议。出席会议的监事应到 4 名，实到 4 名。会议由监事 会副主席陈漪主持，本次会议符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定。与会监事 审议并一致通过以下议案： 一、《公司 2024 年第三季度报告》 表决情况：4 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权通过了该议案。 详细内容请参考同日登载在上海证 ...

老凤祥 B 900905 股票简称：老凤祥 股票代码：600612 编号：临 2024-028 老凤祥股份有限公司 二、《关于子公司上海老凤祥有限公司进行固定资产项目投资的议案》 表决情况：9 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权通过了该议案。 详细内容请参考同日登载在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）及指定 信息披露媒体上的《老凤祥股份有限公司关于子公司上海老凤祥有限公司进行固 定资产项目投资的公告》，公告编号 2024-030。 特此公告。 老凤祥股份有限公司 第十一届董事会第十三次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 老凤祥股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 10 月 18 日向全体董事 发出会议通知，并在 2024 年 10 月 29 日如期召开了第十一届董事会第十三次会 议。出席会议的董事应到 9 名，实到 9 名（其中独立董事应到 3 名，实到 3 名）。 会议由杨奕董事长主持，公司监事及高管列席会议。本次会议的召开及程序符合 《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定。与会董事 ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·饰品 老凤祥（600612） 穿越牛熊最长的河，黄金时代下的黄金珠宝 品牌龙头 2024 年 10 月 18 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 63010 | 71436 | 73012 | 79597 | 85378 | | 同比（ % ） | 7.36 | 13.37 | 2.21 | 9.02 | 7.26 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1700 | 2214 | 2341 | 2620 | 2863 | | 同比（ % ） | (9.38) | 30.23 | 5.73 | 11.92 | 9.26 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 3.25 | 4.23 | 4.48 | 5.01 | 5.47 ...