Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 52.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 15.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, revenue was 12.62 billion yuan, a significant drop of 41.9%, and net profit was 370 million yuan, down 46.2% year-on-year [3][4]. - The decline in revenue in the third quarter is primarily attributed to weak industry demand, which affected the shipment volume during the ordering meeting. The consumption of gold jewelry and gold bars in the industry decreased by 29% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a challenging market environment [3][4]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the company maintains a strong market position with 6,022 stores as of the first half of 2024 and a robust brand presence. The company is expected to see significant improvement in performance once end-user demand recovers [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 52.58 billion yuan, down 15.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 12.62 billion yuan, a decline of 41.9%, and a net profit of 370 million yuan, down 46.2% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross profit margin for the third quarter was 6.5%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in sales strategies to cope with weak industry demand and a smaller increase in gold prices compared to the previous quarter [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the gold jewelry industry, with a multi-faceted marketing strategy that includes self-operated stores, joint ventures, and exclusive distributors. This diversified approach is expected to enhance operational stability and market resilience [5]. - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 3.84, 4.20, and 4.64 yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating potential for recovery and growth in the medium to long term [5].

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's cumulative cash dividends from 2018 to 2023 amounted to 43.73 billion CNY, with a dividend payout ratio of 43.78% of net profit during the same period [1] - In the first nine months of 2024, the total sales of gold jewelry decreased by 10.40% in January, 12% in August, and 10.40% in September, reflecting a downward trend in the market [1] - The domestic raw gold production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 268.068 tons, a decrease of 1.17%, while the national gold consumption was 741.732 tons, down 11.18% [5] Group 2: Market Conditions - The rapid increase in gold prices, with a rise of approximately 23% in the closing price at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, has significantly impacted end-consumer demand [5] - The retail market for gold jewelry has shown a declining trend since April 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.10% in sales [2] - The company has adjusted its sales policies to support distributors and franchisees in response to the slowdown in retail sales [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to continue innovating in product design and marketing to attract younger consumers and enhance brand appeal [4] - There are no current plans for stock repurchase or increase in holdings, focusing instead on product development and market expansion [2] - The company is actively exploring new policies and market dynamics to address B-share issues and improve market positioning [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its operational quality and adapt to market changes by upgrading store themes and expanding product lines [6] - Future growth strategies include leveraging e-commerce channels and hosting exclusive product sales events to increase customer engagement [5] - The company is committed to maintaining a stable and high-quality development trajectory while safeguarding investor interests [4]

公司报告 | 季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | 老凤祥（ 600612 ） | | 证券研究报告 2024 年 11 月 06 日 | | | 投资评级 | | | 金价高位拖累终端消费 | 行业 纺织服饰 | / 饰品 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 525.82 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.28%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.76 billion yuan, down 9.60% year-on-year [4][6] - In the third quarter of 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue, reporting 126.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.72 billion yuan, down 46.20% year-on-year [4][6] - The company is actively supporting its franchisees during the downturn in demand caused by rising gold prices, which has pressured terminal sales [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 525.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 17.76 billion yuan, down 9.60% year-on-year. The revenue for the third quarter alone was 126.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.89% year-on-year decline, with a net profit of 3.72 billion yuan, a 46.20% decrease [4][6] - The gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 6.52%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year, attributed to support provided to franchisees and changes in product structure [6][9] Market and Industry Analysis - The gold jewelry consumption in the third quarter of 2024 was 130 tons, down 29% year-on-year, while gold bar consumption was 69 tons, down 9% year-on-year. The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry above designated size decreased by 7.6% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to maintain a long-term investment value despite the current challenges, supported by its strong brand and stable expansion through a wholesale (franchise) model [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.0 billion yuan, 19.9 billion yuan, and 21.0 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - The estimated valuation for 2024 is set at 14-16 times PE, corresponding to a market value range of 266-303 billion yuan, with a reasonable value range of 50.76-58.02 yuan per share [9]

老凤祥股份有限公司 关于参加 2024 年上海辖区上市公司 三季报集体业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 老凤祥股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 10 月 30 日发布了《公 司 2024 年第三季度报告》。为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，公司将参加"2024 年上海辖区上市公司三季报集体业绩说明会"活动（以下简称"本次说明会"）， 现将有关事项公告如下： 一、说明会类型、时间、地点 本次说明会将采取网络的方式举行，投资者可以登录"上证路演中心"网站 （https://roadshow.sseinfo.com）或关注微信公众号上证路演中心参与互动交 流，活动时间为 2024 年 11 月 13 日（周三）15:00 至 16:30。 二、参加人员 股票简称：老凤祥 股票代码：600612 编号：临 2024-033 老凤祥 B 900905 公司党委书记、董事长杨奕先生；公司副董事长、总经理黄骅先生；独立董 事马民良先生；财务总监凌晓静女士；董事会秘书邱建敏先生（如有特殊情况 ...

股票简称：老凤祥 股票代码：600612 编号：临 2024-032 老凤祥 B 900905 老凤祥股份有限公司 关于办公地址变更的公告 除上述变更外，公司联系电话、传真、电子信箱及注册地址等其他基本信息 均保持不变。本次变更后公司最新联系方式如下： 1.办公地址：上海市徐汇区凯旋路 2588 号-6 临 2.联系电话：021-54480605 3.邮政编码：200030 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 为了加快推动工业上楼，打造新型智造空间，老凤祥股份有限公司（以下简 称"公司"）将启动上海市漕溪路园区改造工程。为此，公司办公地址于即日起 由"上海市徐汇区漕溪路 270 号"搬迁至"上海市徐汇区凯旋路 2588 号-6 临"， 邮政编码由"200235"变更为"200030"。 4.传真：021-54481529 5.电子信箱：lfx600612@lfxgf.com。 以上变更信息自本公告日起正式启用，敬请广大投资者关注以上信息变更， 若由此给您带来不便，敬请谅解。 特此公告。 老凤祥股份有限公司 2 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [3][5] - Target price adjusted to 61.12 RMB (previously 70.50 RMB) [3][5] Core Views - Performance below expectations due to high gold prices impacting terminal sales and franchisee purchasing willingness [2][3] - Gross margin under pressure due to increased discounts and higher proportion of gold bars in sales [3] - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 126.23 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 41.89% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 3.72 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 46.2% [3] - State-owned enterprise reforms are progressing, with potential for performance elasticity [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 525.82 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 15.28% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.60% [3] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 6.52%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points [3] - Net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 2.95%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [3] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 3.82/4.21/4.57 RMB, down from previous estimates of 4.70/5.20/5.70 RMB [3] Sales and Profitability - Sales structure and promotional discounts have put pressure on gross margins [3] - Operating expense ratio increased by 1.03 percentage points to 2.61% in Q3 2024 [3] - Sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios increased by +0.27pct/+0.60pct/+0.03pct/+0.14pct respectively [3] State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - The company is advancing comprehensive reforms under the "Double Hundred Action" initiative [3] - Implementation of a professional manager system is expected to enhance performance elasticity [3] Market and Valuation - Current stock price is 49.15 RMB [5] - 52-week price range is 47.10-86.19 RMB [6] - Market capitalization is 25.711 billion RMB [6] - PE ratio for 2024 is 12.87x, with a PB ratio of 2.01x [10] Industry Comparison - Comparable companies include China Gold, Caibai, Laopu Gold, and Mankalun, with an average 2024 PE of 20.44x [11] - The company's 2024 PE valuation is set at 16x, lower than the industry average [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 57.12 CNY over the next six months, corresponding to a 15x PE for 2024 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 52.582 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 15.28% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.776 billion CNY, down 9.60% [3]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 12.623 billion CNY, a significant decline of 41.89%, and a net profit of 372 million CNY, down 46.20%, primarily due to a decrease in gold jewelry consumption caused by rising gold prices [3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 8.56%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.38%, up 0.21 percentage points [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 8.56% and a net profit margin of 3.38% [4]. - The Q3 gross margin was 6.52%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.95%, down 0.24 percentage points [4]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 63.383 billion CNY, 67.590 billion CNY, and 73.163 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected net profit of 1.992 billion CNY, 2.201 billion CNY, and 2.442 billion CNY for the same years [6][12]. Market Activities and Innovations - The company participated in significant events showcasing its brand heritage and innovative spirit, including the Hong Kong Jewelry Exhibition and the International Jewelry Culture Festival in Shanghai [5]. - It launched various products, including customized gold jewelry in collaboration with popular anime characters, demonstrating its commitment to innovation [5].

纺织服饰 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 10 月 31 日 老凤祥 (600612) ——Q3 营收增长承压，关注终端销售触底回暖节奏 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 30 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 50.51 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 89.49/46.71 | | 市净率 | 2.1 | | 息率（分红 / 股价） | 3.86 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 16,017 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,266.24/10,530.85 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 23. ...

核心观点 ⚫ 公司发布 24Q3 季报， 前三季度实现营业收入 525.82 亿，同比下降 15.3%，实现 归母净利润 17.8 亿，同比下降 9.6%，单 Q3 来看，公司收入和归母净利润分别同比 下降 41.9%和 46.2%，低于市场预期。 ⚫ 高金价抑制终端需求。截至 2024 年 9 月底，SGE 黄金 T+D 价格为 595.2 元/克，相 比 7 月初增长 8.3%，相比 1 月初增长 24%。在此背景下，消费者观望情绪明显， 我们推测经销商的拿货热情普遍下降。根据国家统计局数据，7-9 月黄金珠宝社零分 别同比下滑 10.4%、12%和 7.8%。根据周大福披露的 24Q3 运营数据，中国内地的 零售值和同店销售分别下滑 19.4%和 24.3%。 ⚫ 盈利能力方面，公司 24Q3 毛利率同比下降 1pct 至 6.5%，在金价持续上涨背景 下，我们推测毛利率下降主要源于：1）黄金交易收入占比提升；2）公司主动让利 经销商。24Q3 销售和管理费用率同比增长 0.3 和 0.6pct，推测主要源于收入增长放 缓。 ⚫ 前三季度公司存货周转天数为 53 天，同比下降 3 天。24Q3 经营活动 ...