金价持续上行，动销拓店阶段承压 老凤祥(600612) ——老凤祥 2024 年业绩快报点评 批零贸易业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 目标价格： | | 64.48 | | | 上次预测: | 61.12 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 53.23 | 本报告导读： 金价屡创新高，终端动销阶段承压，影响加盟商拿货意愿，2024Q4 动销拓店阶段承 压；2025Q2 有望迎来终端动销边际回温。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 63,010 | 71,436 | 56,793 | 59,937 | 64,155 | | (+/-)% | 7.4% | 13.4% | -20.5% | 5.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance is under pressure due to a sharp rise in gold prices, with expectations for a performance turnaround in 2025 [7] - The report highlights a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue expected to be 56.79 billion yuan, down 20.5% year-on-year, and net profit projected at 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [7][8] - The report anticipates that consumer demand for gold jewelry will gradually recover if gold prices stabilize, with a potential improvement in performance expected from Q2 2025 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 56.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% [7] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.95 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.95% [7] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 3.73 yuan for 2024, with a projected P/E ratio of 14.62 based on the latest diluted EPS [1][8] - The company plans to expand its market presence, with a total of 5,838 marketing outlets by the end of 2024, including 197 direct stores [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance is under pressure due to a sharp rise in gold prices, with expectations for a performance turnaround in 2025 [7] - The company reported a revenue of 56.79 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [7] - The report anticipates that consumer demand for gold jewelry will gradually recover if gold prices stabilize, with a potential improvement starting in the second quarter of 2025 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 63.01 billion yuan, increasing to 71.44 billion yuan in 2023, but projected to decline to 56.79 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.7 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a decrease of 30% year-on-year, primarily due to suppressed consumer demand from rising gold prices [7] - The company plans to expand its market presence with new store formats and themes, aiming to enhance its retail strategy [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit in 2024 is 1.95 billion yuan, with adjustments made for 2025 and 2026 net profit estimates to 2.13 billion yuan and 2.28 billion yuan respectively [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 13.4 and 12.5 times, respectively, indicating an attractive valuation phase for the company [7]

老凤祥（600612） 2024 年业绩快报点评：金价急涨致公司业绩 承压，期待 25 年迎业绩拐点 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 63010 | 71436 | 56791 | 60573 | 64724 | | 同比（%） | 7.36 | 13.37 | (20.50) | 6.66 | 6.85 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1700 | 2214 | 1950 | 2128 | 2280 | | 同比（%） | (9.38) | 30.23 | (11.95) | 9.14 | 7.13 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.25 | 4.23 | 3.73 | 4.07 | 4.36 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.77 | 12.87 | 14.62 | 13.40 | 12.50 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究 ...

公司研究 2025.03.11 老凤祥（ 600612） 公司点评报告 24 年金价持续上涨公司表现承压，25 年降幅已现收窄趋势期待后续拐点 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 周昕 登记编号：S1220524100007 联系人 廖捷 《老凤祥(600612)：24H1 整体表现平稳，毛利 率提升&费用率稳健带动盈利能力改善》 2024.08.30 《老凤祥(600612)：黄金消费景气驱动公司业 绩亮眼增长，渠道有望保持较快扩张步伐》 2024.05.04 《老凤祥(600612)：23 年业绩稳健增长，金价 上 行 推 动 黄 金 消 费 仍 具 较 高 景 气 度 》 2024.03.05 事件：公司发布 24 年业绩快报。 | | | | 公 司 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | | 钟表珠宝 | | 最新收盘价(人民币/元) | | 51.05 | | 总市值(亿)(元) | | 267.05 | | 52 周最高/最低价(元) | | 86.19/47.10 | 历史表现 -36% -25% -14% -3% 8% 24/3/11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure on its performance in 2024, with a projected revenue of 56.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 20.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [1][3]. - The report highlights a weak consumption environment and rising gold prices as key factors impacting the company's performance, with domestic gold jewelry consumption expected to drop by 24.7% in 2024 [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence through the expansion of themed stores and upgrading retail store images, despite a net decrease in total marketing outlets [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a net profit margin of 3.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin for Q4 2024 is projected at 4.1%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.95 billion, 2.10 billion, and 2.26 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 [3][4]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue growth rates of -20.5% for 2024, followed by a recovery of 4.7% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026 [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging the trend of domestic "trendy goods" consumption, launching new product lines such as "Dragon's Affection" gold and jade jewelry, aiming to create a series of "fashionable new classics" [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing store layouts and enhancing brand positioning through various types of stores, including "Treasure Gold" and "Fengxiang Celebration" [3].

公司报告 | 公司点评 1）2024 年业绩: 营收 568 亿元、同比下滑 20.5%，归母净利润 19.5 亿元、 同比下滑 11.95%，扣非归母净利润 18.0 亿元、同比下滑 16.3%。2024 年内 需环境偏弱叠加金价持续上涨导致黄金珠宝消费疲软，2024 年国内黄金首 饰消费量为 532 吨、同比下滑 24.7%，公司业绩相应承压。2024 年非经常 性损益 1.5 亿元、同比增长 149%，主要系 2024 年政府补贴同比增加。 2）24Q4 业绩: 营收 42.1 亿元、同比下滑 55.1%，归母净利润 1.7 亿元、同 比下滑 30.4%，扣非归母净利润 1.1 亿元、同比下滑 40.4%。 3）盈利水平：2024 年归母净利率 3.4%、同比提升 0.3pct，扣非归母净利 率 3.2%、同比提升 0.2pct；24Q4 净利率 4.1%、同比提升 1.5pct，扣非归母 净利率 2.5pct、同比提升 0.6pct。 2024 年经历渠道调整，同时提升主题店布局、焕新主题店形象： 受黄金珠宝消费疲软影响 2024 年网点拓展不及预期。2024 年末境内外营 销网点合计达 5838 家 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, despite rising gold prices, the revenue and net profit of Lao Feng Xiang have declined significantly, indicating challenges in the retail jewelry market and the company's performance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Lao Feng Xiang reported a revenue of 56.793 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 20.50% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.950 billion yuan, down 11.95% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.212 billion yuan and a net profit of 174 million yuan, representing decreases of 55.05% and 30.4% respectively compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Market Environment - The decline in performance is attributed to a combination of a challenging market environment and rising gold prices, which have led to weak consumer demand for gold jewelry [2] - In 2024, China's gold jewelry consumption was 532.02 tons, a decrease of 24.69% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter of 2024 marked a turning point for Lao Feng Xiang, with revenue and net profit dropping by 41.89% and 46.20% respectively compared to the previous year [2] Group 3: Sales Strategy and Challenges - The slowdown in retail sales has affected the enthusiasm of franchisees and distributors to purchase products during ordering sessions, prompting the company to implement promotional discounts [3] - The company experienced a net decrease of 166 franchise stores, indicating challenges in maintaining its retail network [5] - Lao Feng Xiang's product structure, primarily focused on gold jewelry, has made it more vulnerable to the impacts of rising gold prices compared to competitors with different sales strategies [3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Initiatives - The company is actively seeking to improve its operational quality by learning from successful competitors and enhancing its market presence through themed stores [4] - Despite plans to upgrade retail store themes and expand market reach, the company has faced difficulties due to weak gold jewelry consumption [4]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of ¥5,679,287.65 million, a decrease of 20.50% compared to the previous year[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥194,980.17 million, down 11.95% year-on-year[4] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥180,345.61 million, a decline of 16.34% compared to the previous year[6] - The basic earnings per share were ¥3.7273, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.95%[6] - The weighted average return on equity decreased by 4.33 percentage points to 16.20%[4] Assets and Equity - The company's total assets at the end of the reporting period were ¥2,273,114.24 million, a decrease of 6.59% from the beginning of the period[6] - The equity attributable to shareholders increased by 7.98% to ¥1,249,808.83 million[6] Market Presence - The number of marketing outlets reached 5,838, with a net increase of 10 direct stores but a decrease of 166 franchise stores[7] Non-Recurring Gains - The company received non-recurring gains of ¥14,634.56 million, an increase of 149.48% compared to the previous year due to higher fiscal subsidies[6] Market Trends - The decline in performance was attributed to weak gold jewelry consumption, with a reported 24.69% drop in gold jewelry consumption in China[7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the year 2024, attributed to weak consumer demand in the gold jewelry sector and rising gold prices [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 56.793 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% [1] - Net profit for the year was 1.95 billion yuan, down 11.95% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 3.73 yuan [1] Industry Context - The decline in performance is linked to insufficient global economic growth momentum and domestic effective demand [1] - The continuous rise in gold prices, reaching historical highs, has led to weakened consumption in the gold jewelry market [1]