2024 年 08 月 22 日 公司点评 增持/下调 舍得酒业(600702) 目标价: 61.12 昨收盘:45.50 舍得酒业：Q2 业绩仍有承压，主动调整蓄力 走势比较 (70%) (52%) (34%) (16%) 2% 20% 23/8/2223/11/324/1/1524/3/2824/6/924/8/21 舍得酒业 沪深300 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 3.33/3.33 总市值/流通(亿元) 151.59/151.59 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 151.2/45.04 相关研究报告 <<舍得酒业：短期盈利承压，继续夯 实进取>>--2024-04-29 <<全年业绩符合预期，战略清晰具备 长期潜力>>--2024-03-26 <<舍得酒业：业绩符合预期，坚持良 性发展主动控速>>--2023-10-26 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 证券分析师：肖依琳 电话： E-MAIL：xiaoyl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523100003 事件：公司发布 2024 年半年度报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.271 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 591 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 1.165 billion yuan, down 22.75%, and net profit was 41 million yuan, down 88.29% year-on-year. The company has adopted a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices to assist in channel destocking and relieve pressure [1][2] - The company’s mid-to-high-end and regular liquor segments achieved revenues of 2.601 billion yuan and 384 million yuan respectively in H1 2024, with year-on-year declines of 5.61% and 25.18%. In Q2 2024, these segments generated revenues of 876 million yuan and 146 million yuan, down 19.43% and 47.35% respectively. The company is focusing on banquet scenarios, with significant growth in the number of banquets for its key products [1][2] - The company’s revenue from external and internal markets in H1 2024 was 2.076 billion yuan and 910 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 11.16% and 2.46%. In Q2 2024, revenues from these markets were 655 million yuan and 267 million yuan, down 28.46% and 18.25% respectively. The company is increasingly focusing on high-occupancy base markets [1][2] Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin and net margin for Q2 2024 were 60.9% and 3.5%, down 10.9 and 19.7 percentage points year-on-year. The overall expense ratio increased by 14.1%, with sales expenses rising by 38% primarily due to increased employee compensation [2][6] - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.237 billion yuan, 1.286 billion yuan, and 1.505 billion yuan respectively, with a maintained "Buy" rating despite short-term performance pressures [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3.271 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.28%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 591 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2024, total revenue was 1.165 billion yuan, a decline of 22.61% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, down 88.4% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively controlling volume and stabilizing prices, leading to a temporary decline in revenue [2] - The sales revenue for mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q2 2024 was 876 million yuan and 146 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.66% and -25.19% [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence in the banquet sector, anticipating that mass consumption will continue to support growth in the second half of the year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2024 was 60.93%, a decrease of 10.95 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on traditional products and an increase in lower-margin product sales [2] - The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was 3.48%, a significant drop of 19.74 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Cash flow from operating activities was negative 129 million yuan in Q2 2024, compared to positive 412 million yuan in Q2 2023 [2] Market Strategy - The company has adjusted its sales strategy to manage channel pressures, focusing on improving sales dynamics and controlling cash flow and delivery schedules [2] - The company aims to strengthen its market operations in Sichuan and enhance its banquet market strategy to capture market share [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 1.26 billion yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 1.63 billion yuan, representing reductions of 35%, 39%, and 42% from previous estimates [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12, 11, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 舍得酒业（600702） 2024 年半年报点评：主动调整，砥砺前行 2024 年 08 月 22 日 增持（下调） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------|-------|---------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6056 | 7081 | 6357 | 6823 | 7698 | | 同比（%） | 21.86 | 16.93 | (10.22) | 7.32 | 12.83 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1685 | 1771 | 1148 | 1248 | 1439 | | 同比（%） | 35.31 | 5.09 | (35.20) | 8.72 | 15.33 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 5.06 | 5.32 | 3.45 | 3.75 | 4.32 | | P/E（ ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 舍得酒业（600702）2024 年中报点评 中性（下调） 业绩不及预期，库存尚待出清 目标价：54 元 当前价：50.00 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年半年报，上半年实现营收 32.7 亿元，同降 7.3%；归母净利润 5.9 亿元，同降 35.7%；其中单 Q2 实现营收 11.7 亿元，同降 22.6%，归母净利 0.4 亿元，同降 88.4%。单 Q2 销售回款 15.2 亿元，同降 14.7%，经营活动现 金流净额-1.3 亿元，去年同期为 4.1 亿元，Q2 末合同负债 1.6 亿元，环比 Q1 末减少 0.7 亿元。 评论： Q2 报表下滑不及预期，主动去库存出清泡沫。公司 Q2 营收/利润分别同降 22.6%/88.4%，表现不及预期，判断主要系外部需求转弱下，公司主动调整消 化库存、降低回款发货要求所致。分产品看，Q2 中高档/普通酒收入同降 19.3%/47.3%，判断大单品品味舍得下滑 20%+，大众价格带的舍之道、沱牌特 级 T68、沱牌窖龄特曲等产品保持增长，定制开发品等普通酒下滑明显。分区 域看，Q2 四川省内收入同降 18.2%，省外同降 28.5% ...

证 2024 年 08 月 22 日 报 告 公 司 研 究 利润不及预期，短期去库释放压力 —舍得酒业（600702.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 2024 年 8 月 21 日，舍得酒业发布 2024 年中报。 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-08-21 | | 当前股价（元） | 50 | | 总市值（亿元） | 167 | | 总股本（百万股） | 333 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 332 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 50-149.85 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 636.85 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《舍得酒业（600702）：收入符 合预期，利润略承压》2024-04-27 2、《舍得酒业（600702）：业绩符 合预期，多因素致利润承压》2024- 03-21 3 ...

2024年08月22日 食品饮料 舍得酒业(600702.SH) 淡季主动调整，业绩有所承压 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 股价:50元 主要数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------|---------------------------------| | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 公司网址 | www.tuopaishede.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 四川沱牌舍得集团有限公司/30.22% | | 实际控制人 | 郭广昌 | | 总股本(百万股) | 333 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 332 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 167 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 166 | | 每股净资产(元) | 21.05 | | 资产负债率(%) | 36.6 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】舍得酒业（600702.SH）*季报点评*收 入平稳增长，省内表现更优*推荐20240425 【平安证券】舍得酒业（600702.SH）*年报点评*收 入稳定增长，结构略回落*推荐20240320 证券分析师 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 S10 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.22 ——舍得酒业 2024H1 业绩点评 迈入调整，夯实基础 舍得酒业(600702) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 68.02 上次评级: 增持 上次预测: 123.99 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------|-----------------------| | | 訾猛(分析师) | 李耀(分析师) | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38675854 | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | liyao022899@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880520090001 | 本报告导读： 2024Q2 公司迈入调整期，利润表现低于预期；中期维度下看好白酒份额逻辑，舍得 有望在去库后实现成长性修复。 投资要点： [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] 50.00 [Table_Mark ...

业绩简评 2024 年 8 月 21 日，公司披露 24 年半年报，期间实现营收 32.7 亿元，同比-7.3%；实现归母净利 5.9 亿元，同比-35.8%。其中， 24Q2 实现营收 11.7 亿元，同比-22.7%；实现归母净利 0.4 亿元， 同比-88.4%。 经营分析 分产品看：24Q2 中高档/普通酒收入分别 8.8/1.5 亿元，同比分别 -19.4%/-47.3%。内部结构中，舍之道、沱牌 T68、沱牌窖龄特曲 仍录得不错增幅，沱牌定制酒品项优化对普通酒会有所拖累；24H1 夜郎古实现营收 1.7 亿元、同比增量近 1 亿，预计中高档下滑系 期内公司对核心单品品味控量、去库存所致，品味舍得年初至今 批价相对平稳。考虑结构弱化，叠加夜郎古占比提升、天马玻璃 等因素，24Q2 毛利率同比-11.0pct 至 60.9%。 分区域看：24Q2 省内/省外/电商分别实现营收 3.7/6.5/1.1 亿元， 同比-18.2%/-28.5%/-3.0%；经销商新增 112 家，退出 98 家，净 增加 14 家，Q2 末留存 2809 家。 24Q2 归母净利同比-19.7pct 至 3.5%，主要系毛 ...

业绩简评 2024 年 8 月 21 日，公司披露 24 年半年报，期间实现营收 32.7 亿元，同比-7.3%；实现归母净利 5.9 亿元，同比-35.8%。其中， 24Q2 实现营收 11.7 亿元，同比-22.7%；实现归母净利 0.4 亿元， 同比-88.4%。 经营分析 分产品看：24Q2 中高档/普通酒收入分别 8.8/1.5 亿元，同比分别 -19.4%/-47.3%。内部结构中，舍之道、沱牌 T68、沱牌窖龄特曲 仍录得不错增幅，沱牌定制酒品项优化对普通酒会有所拖累；24H1 夜郎古实现营收 1.7 亿元、同比增量近 1 亿，预计中高档下滑系 期内公司对核心单品品味控量、去库存所致，品味舍得年初至今 批价相对平稳。考虑结构弱化，叠加夜郎古占比提升、天马玻璃 等因素，24Q2 毛利率同比-11.0pct 至 60.9%。 分区域看：24Q2 省内/省外/电商分别实现营收 3.7/6.5/1.1 亿元， 同比-18.2%/-28.5%/-3.0%；经销商新增 112 家，退出 98 家，净 增加 14 家，Q2 末留存 2809 家。 24Q2 归母净利同比-19.7pct 至 3.5%，主要系毛 ...