Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is actively controlling inventory and stabilizing prices to prepare for long-term development [3] - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 3.271 billion yuan, down 7.28% year-on-year, and net profit at 591 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year [3] - The report indicates that the company is focusing on long-term growth by balancing its product portfolio and enhancing brand presence in traditional markets [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company's revenue was 1.165 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.61% year-on-year, with net profit dropping to 41 million yuan, down 88.40% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 60.93%, a decline of 10.96 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to inventory control measures [3] - The company has increased its number of distributors to 2,809 by the end of Q2 2024, up by 154 from the end of 2023 [3] Future Projections - The report projects the company's net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.21 billion yuan, 1.33 billion yuan, and 1.45 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -32%, +10%, and +10% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12, 11, and 10 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Market Strategy - The company is implementing a strategy to control inventory and stabilize prices in response to a challenging market environment for mid-to-high-end liquor [3] - The focus is on enhancing the sales of its flagship product, "Pinnacle Shide," while also maintaining a balanced product lineup across different price segments [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.271 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 591 million yuan for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.28% and 35.73% respectively. In Q2 2024, the revenue was 1.165 billion yuan, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, showing a significant decline of 88.70% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is currently in an adjustment phase within the liquor industry, focusing on "stabilizing prices, controlling inventory, and enhancing sales" as core principles. It aims to strengthen its market presence in key regions while exploring growth opportunities in its product lines [5][6]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenues of 6.733 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.416 billion yuan, down 20.1% year-on-year. The gross margin is expected to be 72.5% [7][8]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in sales rhythm, with projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 at 7.502 billion yuan and 8.281 billion yuan respectively, alongside net profits of 1.564 billion yuan and 1.705 billion yuan [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 61.20 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the 2024 earnings per share [3][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.27 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 590 million CNY, down 35.7% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 1.17 billion CNY, a decline of 22.6%, with net profit dropping 88.4% to 40 million CNY [2]. - The company is expected to control volume and stabilize prices, leading to a gradual reduction in inventory. However, cash collection has slowed significantly in Q2 2024. The mid-to-high-end liquor segment saw a revenue of 2.60 billion CNY in H1 2024, down 5.7% year-on-year, with Q2 revenue declining by 19.4% [2]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2024 was 69.4%, a decrease of 6.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the proportion of premium products. The sales and management expense ratios increased to 20.1% and 9.4%, respectively [2]. - The company is actively pursuing an old liquor strategy, aiming to enhance brand, channel, product, and organizational strength, which is expected to gradually increase the proportion of high-end products and improve brand positioning [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 6.57 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of -7.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.20 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 32.2% year-on-year. Earnings per share for 2024 is forecasted at 3.60 CNY [7][9]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 69.2% in 2024, with net profit margin projected at 18.3% [7]. - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 12.71 billion CNY by 2024, with total liabilities of 4.25 billion CNY [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.271 billion yuan for H1 2024, a decrease of 7.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 591 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year [2] - The consumption environment is under pressure, leading to a decline in the main business revenue of the company [2] - The company is focusing on channel inventory digestion and is not pushing for aggressive sales growth, which is expected to benefit long-term development [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.165 billion yuan, a decline of 22.65% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, down 88.40% year-on-year [2] - The revenue from liquor products in Q2 2024 was 1.022 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.02% year-on-year, with mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues of 876 million yuan and 146 million yuan, down 19.33% and 47.34% respectively [2] Market Expansion - The company generated 910 million yuan in revenue from the domestic market, down 2.46% year-on-year, and 2.076 billion yuan from the external market, down 11.16% year-on-year for H1 2024 [3] - The number of distributors increased by 14 to 2,809, indicating ongoing efforts to cultivate base markets and expand nationally [3] Profitability and Costs - The gross margin for H1 2024 decreased by 6.16 percentage points to 69.44%, and the net margin decreased by 5.26 percentage points to 18.09% [3] - The company faced increased sales and management expense ratios due to upfront advertising costs and rising employee salaries [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to experience revenue growth rates of -2.50%, 4.79%, and 11.80% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit growth rates of -29.04%, 3.07%, and 15.59% respectively [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3.77 yuan, 3.89 yuan, and 4.49 yuan respectively, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.6 times for 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 3.271 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 591 million for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of +7.32% and -35.75% respectively [2] - The company is adopting a "control volume and stabilize price" strategy to cope with the pressure on profits, focusing on long-term quality development [2] - The company’s gross margin decreased by 10.96 percentage points to 60.93% in Q2 2024, primarily due to a weakening structure in mid-to-high-end liquor [2] - The company is expected to see a decline in revenue for 2024, with projected revenues of 6.387 billion, 6.591 billion, and 6.954 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% in 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts - For 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 6.387 billion with a net profit of 1.197 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 32.5% [3][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 3.59 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 [3][8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 69.89% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 18.73% [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [4][9]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in the second quarter of 2024, with revenue down 7.3% year-on-year and net profit down 35.7% [5][6]. - The second quarter saw a revenue of 1.165 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 41 million yuan, down 88.4% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is focusing on maintaining channel health and managing inventory levels amid weak demand in the off-season [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.271 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 591 million yuan, down 35.7% year-on-year [5][6]. - The second quarter's performance was particularly weak, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue at 876 million yuan (down 19.33%) and low-end liquor revenue at 146 million yuan (down 47.34%) [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 decreased by 11 percentage points to 60.9% due to product mix changes and increased discounts in certain categories [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The company reported a decline in both domestic and international sales, with domestic revenue at 1.022 billion yuan (down 18.25%) and international revenue at 655 million yuan (down 28.46%) [5][6]. - The number of distributors increased to 2,809 by the end of June, reflecting a slight improvement in distribution channels [5][6]. Profitability and Cost Management - The net profit margin decreased by 19.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rigid costs and declining sales [5][6]. - Sales expenses increased by 37% year-on-year, driven by efforts to support distributors and enhance market penetration [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025, expecting revenues of 6.119 billion yuan (down 13.6%) and 6.648 billion yuan (up 8.6%) respectively [6][7]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is adjusted to 1.279 billion yuan (down 27.8%), with a slight recovery expected in 2025 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) as of August 22, 2024 [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned for long-term sustainable development and is actively adjusting inventory levels to respect market conditions, which is reflected in the maintained "Outperform" rating [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 590 million yuan, down 35.8% [1]. - In Q2 2024, revenue was 1.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22.7%, with a net profit of 40 million yuan, also down significantly [1]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 1.29 billion yuan, 1.26 billion yuan, and 1.35 billion yuan respectively, reflecting declines of 27.1%, 2.1%, and growth of 6.8% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor was 880 million yuan and 150 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 19.4% and 47.3% [3]. - The decline in mid-to-high-end liquor was attributed to a significant drop in business demand, while the ordinary liquor segment faced challenges due to the clearance of customized products [3]. Inventory and Prepayments - As of the end of Q2 2024, the company's contract liabilities stood at 162 million yuan, a decrease of 68.12% year-on-year, indicating a low level of prepayments due to inventory digestion and price maintenance efforts [4]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin in Q2 2024 was 60.93%, down 11.21 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products [5]. - The net profit margin fell by 19.73 percentage points to 3.64% in Q2 2024, reflecting a significant decline in profitability [5]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 6.375 billion yuan, 6.044 billion yuan, and 6.142 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -10.0%, -5.2%, and +1.6% [6]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.88 yuan, 3.79 yuan, and 4.05 yuan, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with expectations for a recovery in industry conditions [6] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected to be 5.937 billion, 5.346 billion, and 5.591 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -16.16%, -9.95%, and +4.58% [11][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 968 million, 875 million, and 923 million yuan for the same period, with year-on-year changes of -45.33%, -9.69%, and +5.51% [11][12] - The company is expected to maintain a steady channel expansion, which will provide significant elasticity once business demand recovers [11] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.271 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 591 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year [11] - Q2 2024 revenue was 1.165 billion yuan, down 22.61% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, down 88.40% year-on-year [11] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 60.93%, a decrease of 11.21 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company has increased its distributors by 154 compared to the end of 2023, indicating steady channel expansion [11] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 17, 19, and 18 times respectively [11] - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 16.613 billion yuan [7] - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 36.59% [7]

舍得酒业（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600702） 公司点评 静待市场修复 ——舍得酒业 2024Q2 点评 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------------| | 报告日期： | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 45.50 | | 近 12 个月最高/ | 147.16/45.04 | | 总股本（百万股） | 333 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 332 | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.73 | | 总市值（亿元） | 152 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 151 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -75% -51% -26% -2% 23% 8/23 11/23 2/24 5/24 舍得酒业 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 主要观 ...

舍得酒业（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600702） 公司点评 静待市场修复 ——舍得酒业 2024Q2 点评 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------------| | 报告日期： | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 45.50 | | 近 12 个月最高/ | 147.16/45.04 | | 总股本（百万股） | 333 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 332 | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.73 | | 总市值（亿元） | 152 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 151 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -75% -51% -26% -2% 23% 8/23 11/23 2/24 5/24 舍得酒业 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 主要观 ...