行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 (8621)23297818× zhuhe@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 26 日 第二产业用电回暖 冷冬预期有望提 升销气增速 - ⚫ 电力：25Q3 第二产业是拉动全社会用电量的主要动力。根据国家能源局数据，9 月单月全社会用 电量 8886 亿千瓦时，同比增长 4.5%。其中第一、二、三产业和城乡居民生活用电量分别同比增 长 7.3%、5.7%、6.3%、-2.6%。累计数据来看，1-9 月，全社会用电量累计 77675 亿千瓦时， 同比增长 4.6%。1-9 月，第一、二、三产业和城乡居民生活用电量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry [6] Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the importance of a strong military strategy and the significance of becoming a space power, aiming for high-quality advancement in national defense and military modernization by 2035 [9][19] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to build on the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on the 2027 military centenary goal and supporting the modernization of national defense and military capabilities [9][19] - The report highlights the need for advancements in mechanization, information technology, and intelligence integration to enhance combat capabilities and national strategic systems [10][19] Market Overview - The defense and military index rose by 2.81% this week, ranking 12th among 31 primary industries [8][35] - The current PE(TTM) for the defense and military sector is 74.6 times, with sub-sectors showing varying PE ratios, such as aerospace equipment at 73.9 times and aerospace equipment at 182.2 times [8][41] Key Sector Dynamics - **Controlled Nuclear Fusion**: New Hope Group showcased advancements in hydrogen-boron fusion at the FEC2025 conference, achieving significant milestones in plasma current and magnetic field strength [12][24] - **Low-altitude Economy**: The Tianjin International Helicopter Expo highlighted the growth potential of the low-altitude economy, with projections estimating a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and over 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035 [13][29] - **Aerospace Engines and Turbines**: Shanghai Electric successfully completed the assembly and ignition of a heavy-duty industrial gas turbine, indicating progress in domestic manufacturing capabilities [14][30] - **Satellite Internet**: The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation successfully launched a communication technology test satellite, marking a significant achievement in satellite deployment [15][31] Suggested Focus Areas - **Missile and Military Electronics**: Companies to watch include Zhenhua Technology, Hongyuan Electronics, and Torch Electronics [16][23] - **Aerospace Engines**: Key players include Aero Engine Corporation of China and related suppliers [16][21] - **Military Trade**: Focus on companies like AVIC Chengfei and AVIC Shenyang [16][21] - **New Domains and Quality Construction**: Companies in commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy sectors are recommended for attention [16][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the efforts of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and National Supervisory Commission at China Dongfang Electric Corporation to strengthen expense management and prevent corruption risks through rigorous oversight and governance measures [1][2][3] Group 1: Expense Management Governance - The inspection team has identified and addressed issues related to improper reimbursement and expense management within subordinate enterprises, leading to disciplinary actions against several individuals [1][2] - A total of 572 problems were discovered during self-inspection and focused checks, resulting in 50 problem clues being formed for further investigation [2] - The governance initiative has led to the revision of 46 regulations and the recovery of over 3 million yuan in losses [2] Group 2: Focus and Precision in Governance - The governance approach has shifted to a more focused and precise strategy, emphasizing the primary responsibilities of the leadership and enhancing the effectiveness of supervision [3] - The use of big data technologies has improved the ability to analyze and identify expense management vulnerabilities, uncovering 12 specific issues for concentrated rectification [3] - Future efforts will include continuous strengthening of oversight and integrating problem rectification into the supervision task list to ensure comprehensive and systematic treatment of issues [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements and innovations in the wind energy sector showcased at the Beijing International Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition (CWP2025), emphasizing China's leading position in wind power technology globally. Group 1: Turbine Innovations - Goldwind Technology introduced a trading-type wind turbine that shifts from a passive to an active generation model, potentially increasing project returns by 2% to 2.5% over its lifecycle [3] - Mingyang Smart Energy launched the world's first 50MW wind turbine, significantly increasing the maximum capacity of wind turbines and designed for deep-sea applications [7] - SANY Heavy Energy presented the SI-242 series wind turbine, capable of operating efficiently across a wide range of wind speeds, with a rotor diameter of 242 meters [8] - Envision Energy unveiled the first AI-integrated wind-storage unit, merging wind turbines, storage, and AI to enhance operational efficiency [5] Group 2: Component Innovations - Luozhou showcased the world's first 16MW offshore wind turbine main bearing, designed for large-scale wind turbine stability [23] - Pangu Intelligent launched a hydraulic motor yaw system that improves reliability and lifespan compared to traditional systems [25] - TBEA New Energy introduced the upgraded TSVG6.0 product, enhancing reliability and operational efficiency through advanced design and technology [27] Group 3: Comprehensive Solutions - China CRRC presented a comprehensive energy solution integrating wind, solar, hydrogen, and AI technologies, aimed at achieving sustainable development goals [11] - Shanghai Electric highlighted its integrated projects, including green hydrogen production and floating wind-fish integration, showcasing its capabilities in the renewable energy sector [13] - XBL Wind Power signed a strategic partnership with Multi Engineering Group to develop a dual-head floating wind power solution, focusing on cost efficiency and system performance [19]

Market Performance - The other power equipment sector increased by 1.76% on the previous trading day, with ST Huaxi leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33, up 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32, up 2.06% [1] Stock Performance - ST Huaxi (002630) closed at 3.17, with a rise of 4.62% and a trading volume of 1.1053 million shares, totaling a transaction value of 348 million yuan [1] - Magpower (002851) closed at 75.30, up 3.43%, with a trading volume of 179,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.339 billion yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Oulu Tong (300870) at 191.80 (+3.06%), Keda (002518) at 39.96 (+2.99%), and China Power (600482) at 22.28 (+2.96%) [1] Capital Flow - The other power equipment sector saw a net inflow of 68.8837 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 36.6678 million yuan [2] - Main funds showed significant net inflows in stocks like Keda (002335) with 12 million yuan and Oulu Tong (300870) with 47.653 million yuan [3] Individual Stock Analysis - Keda (002335) had a main fund net inflow of 12 million yuan, but retail investors had a net outflow of 10.3 million yuan [3] - Oulu Tong (300870) experienced a main fund net inflow of 47.653 million yuan, with retail investors also showing a net outflow of 31.3134 million yuan [3] - ST Huaxi (002630) had a main fund net inflow of 35.7524 million yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 14.1131 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in China's metal smelting equipment production, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.4% in August 2025 and a cumulative decline of 14.9% from January to August 2025 [1][1][1] Group 2 - The article mentions specific listed companies in the metal smelting sector, including China Steel International (000928), CITIC Heavy Industries (601608), Dalian Heavy Industry (002204), Taiyuan Heavy Industry (600169), China First Heavy Industries (601106), Shanghai Electric (601727), and Dongfang Electric (600875) [1][1][1] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of metal smelting equipment in China reached 57,000 tons in August 2025, indicating a downward trend in the industry [1][1][1] - Cumulative production of metal smelting equipment from January to August 2025 totaled 451,000 tons, reflecting a significant reduction in output compared to previous years [1][1][1]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent adjustments in the value-added tax (VAT) policies for wind and nuclear power, which may impact profitability for operators in these sectors [9][10]. - It notes the competitive pricing results for electricity in Xinjiang and Gansu, with Xinjiang's prices nearing the upper limit of the bidding range, suggesting a favorable environment for renewable energy operators [8]. - The report discusses the decline in global LNG prices, with China's comprehensive LNG import price reaching a four-year low, which could benefit domestic gas companies [12][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Xinjiang's mechanism electricity bidding results show a scale of 36 billion kWh for solar and 185 billion kWh for wind, with prices at 0.235 CNY/kWh and 0.252 CNY/kWh respectively, indicating a competitive market [5][8]. - The VAT policy changes will eliminate the 50% VAT refund for onshore wind from November 1, 2025, while maintaining it for offshore wind until the end of 2027 [9][10]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Guodian Power, China Nuclear Power, and Longyuan Power due to their stable growth prospects [11]. 2. Gas Sector - Global gas prices have shown slight declines, with the US Henry Hub price at $2.82/mmBtu, reflecting a 2.90% weekly drop [12][15]. - China's LNG import price has dropped to 2852 CNY/ton, the lowest since mid-2021, driven by lower oil prices affecting long-term contracts [27][29]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as cost reductions and economic recovery may enhance profitability [29]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report emphasizes the benefits of debt-for-equity swaps and the increasing stability of returns for green energy operators, recommending companies like China Everbright Environment and Hongcheng Environment [11]. - It highlights the ongoing rise in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, suggesting investment opportunities in related companies [11]. 4. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, with several rated as "Buy," indicating strong expected performance in the coming years [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, highlighting potential investment opportunities in renewable energy and gas companies [3][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recent adjustments in value-added tax policies for wind and nuclear power, which may impact profitability in the short to medium term [10][11]. - It notes the significant drop in LNG import prices, reaching a four-year low, which could benefit gas companies and consumers [13][29]. - The report suggests that the competitive bidding results for electricity prices in Xinjiang and Gansu indicate varying strategies among renewable energy operators, which could lead to improved profit margins [9][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Xinjiang's competitive bidding results show a mechanism electricity price of 0.252 CNY/kWh for wind power, close to the upper limit, while Gansu's price is 0.1954 CNY/kWh, near the lower limit [5][9]. - The adjustment of the value-added tax policy for onshore wind power, effective November 1, 2025, will eliminate the 50% refund policy, while offshore wind will retain it until the end of 2027 [10][11]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Guodian Power, Sichuan Investment Energy, and China Nuclear Power due to their stable growth prospects [12]. 2. Gas Sector - The report highlights a slight decline in global gas prices, with the US Henry Hub price at $2.82/mmBtu, down 2.90% week-on-week, and LNG import prices in China dropping to 2852 CNY/ton, the lowest since mid-2021 [13][29]. - It suggests that the cost reduction in upstream resources and the recovery of the macro economy will benefit Hong Kong gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [31]. - The report anticipates that the LNG prices may stabilize as demand increases with the onset of colder weather [29][31]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The public utility, power, gas, and environmental protection sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [35]. - The report notes that the power equipment sector lagged behind the index, indicating potential investment opportunities in other sectors [35]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the upcoming competitive bidding for renewable energy projects in Anhui, with a bidding range set between 0.2 CNY/kWh and 0.3844 CNY/kWh [41][42]. - It highlights the performance of major companies, such as China General Nuclear Power and Longyuan Power, which reported varying results in their electricity generation [43][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent release of mechanism electricity prices for new projects in Xinjiang and Gansu, with solar power priced at 0.235 yuan/kWh and wind power at 0.252 yuan/kWh [4] - The report indicates that the power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment following multiple rounds of supply-demand tensions in the electricity market [4] - The ongoing market reforms in electricity pricing are anticipated to lead to a gradual increase in electricity prices, benefiting power operators [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 17, the utility sector declined by 0.7%, outperforming the broader market, which saw a 2.2% drop [11] - The electricity sector specifically saw a decrease of 0.66%, while the gas sector fell by 0.99% [13] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) increased by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week, reaching 740 yuan/ton as of October 17 [20] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 960,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 5.45 million tons [25] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces was 3.107 million tons, down 312,000 tons/day from the previous week [28] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,013 yuan/ton, down 20.19% year-on-year and 0.32% week-on-week [51] - The EU's natural gas supply increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reaching 6.07 billion cubic meters in week 41 of 2025 [58] Key Industry News - The mechanism electricity prices for solar and wind projects in Xinjiang were announced, with a total of 67 projects selected [4] - The release of the "Regulations on Fair and Open Supervision of Oil and Gas Pipeline Facilities" marks a significant step in China's oil and gas market reform [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on national coal power leaders such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [4] - For natural gas, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are expected to benefit from market conditions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement reveals that the first candidate for the procurement of wind turbine generators (including towers) for the China Resources New Energy Linwu County Longling Xianghuapu Wind Farm Project (150MW) is Dongfang Electric, with a bid price of 331.5 million yuan, equivalent to 2,210 yuan/kW [2][5]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Linwu County Longling Xianghuapu Wind Farm Project has a total capacity of 150MW and will consist of no more than 24 turbine units, with an average unit area of at least 6.0 m²/kW [2][3]. - The maximum capacity per turbine unit is set at 6.25MW, and the tower type is a full steel rigid tower [2][3]. Group 2: Procurement Details - The procurement process was conducted through public bidding, and the evaluation has been completed [3][4]. - The first candidate, Dongfang Electric, has met all quality and service requirements as per the bidding documents [5]. - The second candidate is CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Research Institute Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 334.2 million yuan [5].