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中国海油:公司简评报告:2024年前三季度原油实现价格维持较高水平,油气净产量保持增长
Capital Securities· 2024-11-11 13:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 326.024 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 116.659 billion yuan, up 19.47% year-on-year. However, Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 13.51% year-on-year and 13.92% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 36.928 billion yuan, an increase of 8.98% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Oil prices remained high, with the average Brent crude oil futures price for the first three quarters of 2024 at $81.76, $85.03, and $78.71 per barrel. The company's realized oil price was $79.03 per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. The net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The exploration sector saw multiple successes, with the company making 9 new discoveries and successfully evaluating 23 oil and gas structures. New projects such as the Suizhong 36-1 and Luda 5-2 oil fields are expected to support future growth [2] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 182.768 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with capital expenditures of 85.107 billion yuan, up 5.24% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 143.098 billion yuan, 153.975 billion yuan, and 162.355 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 3.01, 3.24, and 3.42 yuan, and PE ratios of 9, 8, and 8 respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 416.609 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -1.3%. For 2024E, revenue is expected to be 460.573 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.6% [3] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 124.090 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -12.6%. For 2024E, net profit is projected at 143.385 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.5% [3] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2023 is expected to be 209.743 billion yuan, with a steady increase projected for the following years [4] - Capital expenditures for 2023 are estimated at 68.451 billion yuan, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [4] Balance Sheet - Total assets for 2023 are projected at 1,005.598 billion yuan, with a steady increase expected through 2026 [4] - Total liabilities for 2023 are estimated at 337.722 billion yuan, with a slight increase projected for the following years [4]
中国海油:加拿大长湖西北项目投产
Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has successfully launched the Northwest Long Lake project in Canada, marking a significant milestone in its international operations [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Northwest Long Lake project is located in Alberta, Canada, and includes the construction of a new surface well site and four transportation pipelines [1] - The project utilizes Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) production technology, deploying eight pairs of production wells [1] - The project is expected to reach a peak production capacity of 8,200 barrels of oil per day by 2025 [1] Group 2: Ownership and Operations - CNOOC's wholly-owned subsidiary holds 100% interest in the Northwest Long Lake project and serves as the operator [1]
中国海油:事件点评:加拿大长湖西北项目投产,海外资源开发能力持续提升
EBSCN· 2024-11-07 14:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The production of the Long Lake Northwest project in Canada has commenced, enhancing the company's overseas resource development capabilities [1] - The project is expected to reach a peak production of 8,200 barrels per day, contributing to the company's overall production growth [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas oil and gas production, with a year-on-year growth of 12.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] Summary by Sections Project Development - The Long Lake Northwest project is located in Alberta, Canada, and includes new surface well pads and pipelines, utilizing Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) technology [1] - The company has made advancements in oil sands extraction technology and pipeline construction, which have facilitated rapid production increases [1] Production and Financial Performance - The company's overseas oil and gas production reached 172.9 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2024, accounting for 32% of total production [1] - The company aims for production targets of 700-720 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024 and 780-800 million barrels in 2025, with annual production growth rates of 4.7% and 11.3% respectively [1] Cost Management - The company's main cost per barrel of oil equivalent was $28.14, showing a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year [1] - The company has maintained a competitive cost structure, with operational costs and depreciation per barrel being effectively managed [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 145.7 billion, 158.2 billion, and 163.9 billion yuan for the years 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 3.07, 3.33, and 3.45 yuan per share [1] - The company is well-positioned to navigate through oil price cycles due to its robust overseas resource development strategy [1]
中国海油:2024年三季报点评:扎实推进增储上产,Q3净利润创历史同期新高
Guohai Securities· 2024-11-02 15:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8][15] Core Views - The company has solidified its cost competitiveness, achieving a record high net profit for the third quarter [4][8] - The company is actively advancing its reserve increase and production, with significant contributions from new oil and gas fields [7][8] - The average realized oil price for the first three quarters of 2024 was $79.03 per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1][6] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 99.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.51% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.92% [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 36.928 billion yuan, an increase of 8.98% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 56.14%, an increase of 9.35 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Production and Exploration - The company achieved a net production of 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [6][7] - The company made 9 new discoveries and successfully evaluated 23 oil and gas structures in the first three quarters of 2024 [7][8] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company announced a mid-year dividend distribution plan, with a total cash dividend of 31.118 billion yuan, achieving a payout ratio of 40.28%, the highest for the same period in history [8][15] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 424.5 billion, 475.3 billion, and 495.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 147.9 billion, 157.9 billion, and 163.6 billion yuan [15][18] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory due to its leading position in offshore oil and gas production in China [8][15]
中国海油:克服油价下跌的不利影响,实现净利增长
Haitong Securities· 2024-11-01 10:55
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit growth of 25% year-on-year for the first half of the year, driven by production growth and rising oil prices, leading to stable profitability [2] - The company achieved an operating revenue of 3260.24 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1166.59 billion yuan, corresponding to an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.45 yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 19.47% [5] - The company has maintained a quarterly net profit above 30 billion yuan since the first quarter of 2022, supported by factors such as oil price stability, increased oil and gas production, and reduced production costs [5] - Despite a decline in Brent crude oil prices, the company managed to achieve profit growth by lowering costs and increasing production [5] Financial Summary - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production reached 179.50 million barrels in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 7.04%, with crude oil production at 139.1 million barrels (up 7.58% year-on-year) and natural gas production at 2355 billion cubic feet (up 5.28% year-on-year) [5] - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 is 2.97 yuan, 3.00 yuan, and 3.08 yuan respectively, with a book value per share (BPS) of 15.11 yuan in 2024 [6] - The company is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.9-2.0 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 28.71-30.22 yuan, which translates to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.0-10.2 times for 2024 [6] - The company’s operating revenue is projected to be 444.19 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 141.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.0% [7]
中国海油:油气产量稳步提升,归母净利润同比增长
中银证券· 2024-10-31 08:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][3] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in oil and gas production, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 19.5% for the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The average selling price of oil liquids increased by 2.9% year-on-year, contributing to a 13.9% increase in oil and gas sales revenue [2] - The company has a strong cash flow position, with net cash inflow from operating activities increasing by 14.9% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3260.24 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1166.59 billion RMB, up 19.5% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 992.54 billion RMB, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 369.28 billion RMB, an increase of 9.0% year-on-year [5] Production and Cost Analysis - The company's net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, with a primary cost of 28.14 USD per barrel equivalent, remaining stable year-on-year [2][3] - The production from domestic and overseas sources accounted for 68% and 32% of total output, respectively, with domestic production increasing by 6.8% and overseas production by 12.2% [2] Sales and Revenue Breakdown - The product structure for the first three quarters of 2024 showed that oil liquids and natural gas accounted for 78% and 22% of total output, respectively [2] - The sales revenue from oil liquids was 2353.82 billion RMB, up 14.6% year-on-year, while natural gas sales revenue was 360.50 billion RMB, up 9.4% year-on-year [2] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of 1827.68 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [2] - Capital expenditures for the first three quarters of 2024 totaled 953.4 billion RMB, a 6.6% increase from the previous year [2]
中国海油:2024年三季报点评:业绩符合预期,成长性持续兑现
Huachuang Securities· 2024-10-30 14:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target price of 34.3 CNY, compared to the current price of 27.11 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 326.02 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion CNY, up 19.47% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue for Q3 was 99.25 billion CNY, showing a decrease of 13.51% year-on-year and 13.92% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit for the same period was 36.93 billion CNY, reflecting an increase of 8.98% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - CNOOC achieved oil and gas sales revenue of approximately 271.43 billion CNY in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. The revenue from oil liquids and natural gas was 235.38 billion CNY and 36.06 billion CNY, respectively, with increases of 14.6% and 9.4% year-on-year. The growth was driven by increased sales volume, higher realized prices, and exchange rate fluctuations [2]. - The average realized price for oil liquids increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 79.03 USD per barrel, while the price for natural gas decreased by 1.8% to 7.78 USD per thousand cubic feet [2]. - The total oil and gas production for the first three quarters was 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 8.5% year-on-year, primarily due to contributions from domestic oil and gas fields and the Payara project in Guyana [2]. Capital Expenditure and Growth - CNOOC's capital expenditure for Q1-Q3 2024 was 95.34 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. This includes exploration, development, and production expenditures of 13.85 billion CNY, 61.79 billion CNY, and 17.97 billion CNY, respectively [2]. - The company made nine new discoveries and successfully evaluated 23 oil and gas structures in the first three quarters, indicating strong exploration prospects [2]. Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 182.77 billion CNY, significantly exceeding capital expenditures. The company has sufficient cash flow to support shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% for 2022-2024 [2]. - The report anticipates that the net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 152.7 billion CNY, 163.0 billion CNY, and 170.9 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9, 8, and 8 [2][3].
中国海油:油气产量达到历史新高,桶油成本控制良好
Huaan Securities· 2024-10-30 01:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a historical high in oil and gas production, with good control over barrel oil costs [1] - The net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q3, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, with oil liquids and natural gas accounting for 77.9% and 22.1% respectively [1] - The company reported a revenue of 326.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.47% year-on-year [1] - The company maintains a competitive edge with low barrel oil production costs and advanced production technology, with a barrel oil cost of 28.14 USD, roughly flat year-on-year [1] - The company has been actively increasing capital expenditures to ensure growth in reserves and production, with a capital expenditure of 129.6 billion yuan in 2023, the highest in history [1][2] Financial Performance - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 149.45 billion, 159.89 billion, and 172.08 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.7%, 7.0%, and 7.6% [3] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 8.71, 8.14, and 7.57 [3] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is expected to be 416.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [4] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 49.9% in 2023 to 54.9% in 2026 [4] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 1,005.60 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,420.55 billion yuan in 2026 [5]
中国海油:业绩符合预期,抗风险能力逐步显现
申万宏源· 2024-10-30 00:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 326.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [6][7] - The company has shown resilience against risks, with a gross margin of 56.14% in Q3, indicating structural improvement due to a focus on core business and reduced trading activities [6][5] - Future oil price trends are expected to remain volatile, with a downward expectation due to geopolitical factors, but demand recovery may provide some support [5][6] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 99.25 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 13.92%, and a net profit of 36.93 billion yuan, down 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The overall capital expenditure for the first three quarters reached 95.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, focusing on development to boost reserves and production [5][6] - The company achieved a historical high in oil and gas production, with a net production of 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 8.5% year-on-year [5][6] Cost and Profitability - The company's cost per barrel of oil equivalent was 28.14 USD, a decrease of 0.8% year-on-year, maintaining a competitive edge globally [6] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 at 150.6 billion, 155.6 billion, and 160.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9X, 8X, and 8X [6][7]
中国海油:盈利能力持续稳健
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-29 13:39
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 326.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 99.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year and 13.9% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 36.93 billion yuan, an increase of 9.0% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The company continues to enhance its oil and gas reserves and production, with total oil and gas output reaching 54.21 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [6] - Capital expenditure remained high at 95.34 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting ongoing project advancements [6] - The company is expected to maintain strong profit certainty with projected net profits of 156 billion yuan, 160.1 billion yuan, and 165.3 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to EPS of 3.28 yuan, 3.37 yuan, and 3.48 yuan, with PE ratios of 8.3X, 8.1X, and 7.9X respectively [6][7] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 421.06 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.07% [7] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is estimated at 156.02 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 25.98% [7] - The company’s current price is 27.39 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 77.84 billion yuan [3][4]