Group 1: Production Growth - The company anticipates continuous growth in both domestic and overseas production in the coming years, with the Bohai Sea being a major source of domestic production increase [2][3] - Multiple significant oil and gas discoveries have been made, with several new projects under construction or about to commence production [2][3] - The application of standardized processes and advanced drilling techniques will enhance project construction speed and efficiency, supporting future production growth [2][3] Group 2: Cost Management - The company does not aim for absolute cost reduction but focuses on effective cost control to maintain a relative competitive advantage [2][3] - The strategy is to achieve a slower increase in costs compared to the industry when costs rise, and a faster decrease when industry costs decline [3] Group 3: Capital Expenditure - To support medium to long-term production growth, the company will need to maintain a high level of capital expenditure in the coming years, with specific data to be disclosed in annual strategic outlooks [3] Group 4: Natural Gas Development - Future natural gas production is expected to increase with the development of unconventional onshore resources and major gas fields like the "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II project [3] - The company plans to advance the construction of three trillion-cubic-meter gas zones domestically and promote overseas natural gas development [3] Group 5: Environmental Initiatives - The company has established the largest and highest voltage shore power application base for offshore oil fields globally in the Bohai Sea, promoting economic development and green low-carbon initiatives [3] Group 6: Exploration Innovations - Breakthroughs in exploration theory and technology in the Bohai Sea have guided the discovery of seven billion-ton oil and gas fields, unlocking exploration potential in complex deep-water areas [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 3260.24 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1,166.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.47% [2] - Despite a challenging external environment, the company increased its oil and gas production by 7% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent [3] - The company's cost control measures were effective, with the cost per barrel of oil remaining stable at 28.14 USD, and operating cash flow increased by 14.92% year-on-year to 1827.68 billion yuan [4] - The company made 9 new discoveries and successfully evaluated 23 oil and gas structures in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating strong growth potential [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was 992.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.51%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 369.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.98% [2] - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1827.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.92% [4] - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1459 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 8.6x, and is projected to grow to 1679 billion yuan by 2026, with a PE ratio of 7.5x [6] Production and Exploration - The company's total oil and gas production in Q3 2024 was 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 7%, driven by contributions from fields such as Bozhong 19-6 and Enping 20-4, as well as the Payara project in Guyana [3] - The company made 2 new discoveries and successfully evaluated 5 oil and gas structures in Q3 2024, further enhancing its resource base [5] Cost Management - The company's cost per barrel of oil was 28.14 USD in the first three quarters of 2024, remaining stable compared to the previous year [4] - The company's total period expense ratio was 3.15%, an increase of only 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, demonstrating effective cost control [4] Future Growth Prospects - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1459 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 1679 billion yuan by 2026, with a PE ratio of 7.5x [6] - The company's ROE is projected to be 20.1% in 2024, maintaining a strong level of profitability [6] - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 2.60 yuan in 2023 to 3.53 yuan in 2026, indicating strong earnings growth potential [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1][9]. Core Views - CNOOC's oil and gas net production has increased year-on-year, with healthy cash flow and high growth potential expected [2][8]. - The company has signed four new offshore oil exploration contracts in Brazil, expanding its overseas exploration potential [3][6]. - CNOOC's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached approximately 326.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, CNOOC achieved total revenue of 326.02 billion yuan, with a net profit of 116.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 19.5% respectively [2][4]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 99.25 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year and 13.9% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 36.93 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year but down 7.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Production and Sales - CNOOC's oil and gas sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 271.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with net production reaching 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 8.5% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company’s net production in Q3 2024 was 17.96 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year [3]. Cost Management - The average cost per barrel of oil for the first three quarters of 2024 was 28.14 USD, remaining stable year-on-year, while the average Brent crude oil price was 81.88 USD per barrel, a slight decrease of 0.30% year-on-year [3][4]. - CNOOC's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 increased significantly due to effective cost management despite fluctuations in international oil prices [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 14.9% to 182.77 billion yuan, indicating stable and healthy cash flow [4]. - The company maintained a prudent financial policy, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 33.24% as of September 2024, down 3.56 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - CNOOC is expected to continue its strategy of increasing reserves and production, with several new projects successfully launched in 2024, including developments in both domestic and overseas markets [8]. - The company is projected to maintain high dividend payouts, with expected average dividend yields of 4.34% and 6.50% for CNOOC and CNOOC Ltd. respectively from 2024 to 2026 [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 326.024 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 116.659 billion yuan, up 19.47% year-on-year. However, Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 13.51% year-on-year and 13.92% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 36.928 billion yuan, an increase of 8.98% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Oil prices remained high, with the average Brent crude oil futures price for the first three quarters of 2024 at $81.76, $85.03, and $78.71 per barrel. The company's realized oil price was $79.03 per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. The net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The exploration sector saw multiple successes, with the company making 9 new discoveries and successfully evaluating 23 oil and gas structures. New projects such as the Suizhong 36-1 and Luda 5-2 oil fields are expected to support future growth [2] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 182.768 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with capital expenditures of 85.107 billion yuan, up 5.24% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 143.098 billion yuan, 153.975 billion yuan, and 162.355 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 3.01, 3.24, and 3.42 yuan, and PE ratios of 9, 8, and 8 respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 416.609 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -1.3%. For 2024E, revenue is expected to be 460.573 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.6% [3] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 124.090 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -12.6%. For 2024E, net profit is projected at 143.385 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.5% [3] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2023 is expected to be 209.743 billion yuan, with a steady increase projected for the following years [4] - Capital expenditures for 2023 are estimated at 68.451 billion yuan, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [4] Balance Sheet - Total assets for 2023 are projected at 1,005.598 billion yuan, with a steady increase expected through 2026 [4] - Total liabilities for 2023 are estimated at 337.722 billion yuan, with a slight increase projected for the following years [4]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has successfully launched the Northwest Long Lake project in Canada, marking a significant milestone in its international operations [1] Group 1: Project Details - The Northwest Long Lake project is located in Alberta, Canada, and includes the construction of a new surface well site and four transportation pipelines [1] - The project utilizes Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) production technology, deploying eight pairs of production wells [1] - The project is expected to reach a peak production capacity of 8,200 barrels of oil per day by 2025 [1] Group 2: Ownership and Operations - CNOOC's wholly-owned subsidiary holds 100% interest in the Northwest Long Lake project and serves as the operator [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The production of the Long Lake Northwest project in Canada has commenced, enhancing the company's overseas resource development capabilities [1] - The project is expected to reach a peak production of 8,200 barrels per day, contributing to the company's overall production growth [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas oil and gas production, with a year-on-year growth of 12.2% in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] Summary by Sections Project Development - The Long Lake Northwest project is located in Alberta, Canada, and includes new surface well pads and pipelines, utilizing Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) technology [1] - The company has made advancements in oil sands extraction technology and pipeline construction, which have facilitated rapid production increases [1] Production and Financial Performance - The company's overseas oil and gas production reached 172.9 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2024, accounting for 32% of total production [1] - The company aims for production targets of 700-720 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024 and 780-800 million barrels in 2025, with annual production growth rates of 4.7% and 11.3% respectively [1] Cost Management - The company's main cost per barrel of oil equivalent was $28.14, showing a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year [1] - The company has maintained a competitive cost structure, with operational costs and depreciation per barrel being effectively managed [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 145.7 billion, 158.2 billion, and 163.9 billion yuan for the years 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 3.07, 3.33, and 3.45 yuan per share [1] - The company is well-positioned to navigate through oil price cycles due to its robust overseas resource development strategy [1]

2024 年 11 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | --- | --- | |--------------|-------------------------------------------| | | | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 ： | 仲逸涵 S0350123070022 zhongyh@ghzq.com.cn | 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-----------|-------|------------------| | 相对沪深 300 \n表现 | 表现 \n1M | 3M | 2024/11/01 \n12M | | 中国海油 | -7.8% | -5.8% | 43.7% | | 沪深 300 | -3.2% | 13.8% | 8.9% | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/11 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit growth of 25% year-on-year for the first half of the year, driven by production growth and rising oil prices, leading to stable profitability [2] - The company achieved an operating revenue of 3260.24 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1166.59 billion yuan, corresponding to an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.45 yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 19.47% [5] - The company has maintained a quarterly net profit above 30 billion yuan since the first quarter of 2022, supported by factors such as oil price stability, increased oil and gas production, and reduced production costs [5] - Despite a decline in Brent crude oil prices, the company managed to achieve profit growth by lowering costs and increasing production [5] Financial Summary - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production reached 179.50 million barrels in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 7.04%, with crude oil production at 139.1 million barrels (up 7.58% year-on-year) and natural gas production at 2355 billion cubic feet (up 5.28% year-on-year) [5] - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 is 2.97 yuan, 3.00 yuan, and 3.08 yuan respectively, with a book value per share (BPS) of 15.11 yuan in 2024 [6] - The company is valued at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.9-2.0 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 28.71-30.22 yuan, which translates to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.0-10.2 times for 2024 [6] - The company’s operating revenue is projected to be 444.19 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 141.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.0% [7]

石油石化 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 10 月 31 日 600938.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 26.52 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 (11%) 8% 26% 44% 62% 80% Oct-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24 中国海油 上证综指 绝对 26.8 (11.7) (5.5) 35.9 相对上证综指 16.5 (9.6) (19.0) 27.8 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|--------|--------------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) 流通股 百万 | | 47,529.95 | | ( ) | | 47,529.95 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 1,260,494.38 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 1,334.91 | | 主要股东 | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国海油（600938）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，成长性持续兑现 目标价：34.3 元 当前价：27.11 元 事项： 中国海油发布 2024 年三季度报告，24Q1-Q3 实现营收 3260.24 亿元，同比 +6.26%，实现归母净利润 1166.59 亿元，同比+19.47%。其中 Q3 实现营收 992.54 亿元，同/环比-13.51%/-13.92%，实现归母净利润 369.28 亿元，同/环比+8.98%/- 7.71%。 评论： 经营数据来看：产量稳健增长，成本持续优化。24Q1-Q3，公司实现油气销售 收入约人民币 2714.3 亿元，同比+13.9%，其中石油液体/天然气分别实现营收 2353.8 亿元/360.6 亿元，同比+14.6%/+9.4%，营收增长的主要原因是销量增加、 实现价格上涨以及汇率变动。从实现价格上看，前三季度公司石油液体实现价 格同比+2.9%至 79.03 美元/桶，天然气实现价格同比-1.8%至 7.78 美元/千立方 英尺；从产量上看，公司保持产量增长的趋势，前三季度公司实现油气产量 542.1 百万桶油当量， ...