2025 年 8 月 31 日 行业研究 25H1 石化行业业绩承压，关注油价预期变化与"反内卷"进程 油服业绩逆势上行，石化工程企业新签合同高增。2025H1，油服行业一方面 受益于国内"增储上产"持续推进，一方面海外业务逐渐进入业绩释放期，使 得主要油服企业经营质量明显上升，在油价下跌的同时业绩逆势上行。 2025H1，中海油服、海油工程、海油发展、石化油服毛利率分别同比上升 0.71、 5.43、1.18、0.41pct，经营质量持续改善。25H1 石化工程行业新签合同持续 高增，中石化炼化工程 25H1 新签合同总额增长 42.1%，中油工程 25H1 海外 新签合同同比增长 9.86%。随着海外高毛利项目逐渐释放业绩，石化工程行 业盈利能力有望持续上行。 炼化-化纤产业链需求修复偏弱，"反内卷"有望修复行业景气度。25H1，主 要石油化工产品需求修复较弱，叠加油价下跌带来库存损失，大炼化公司业绩 普遍下行，恒力石化、荣盛石化 25H1 归母净利润分别同比-24.1%、-29.8%。 受益于化纤景气度回升，化纤上市公司业绩上行，25H1 桐昆股份、新凤鸣归 母净利润分别同比+2.9%、+17.3%。2 ...

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved a significant technological breakthrough in offshore heavy oil thermal recovery, with cumulative production surpassing 5 million tons, making China the first country to master and successfully apply large-scale offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology [1][3] Industry Overview - Heavy oil accounts for 70% of the remaining global oil resources, making it a crucial area for oil production increase [1] - The thermal recovery technique involves injecting high-temperature and high-pressure steam into the reservoir to reduce the viscosity of heavy oil, transforming it into a more easily extractable "light oil" [1] Project Development - CNOOC's offshore heavy oil thermal recovery projects are primarily located in the Bohai Sea, with successful operations in key oil fields such as Nanpu 35-2, Luda 21-2, and Jinzhou 23-2 [3] - The successful operation of these oil fields not only supports China's oil production but also provides valuable experience and reference for global heavy oil extraction [3] Future Outlook - The technological breakthrough demonstrates CNOOC's strong capabilities in offshore oil extraction and injects new vitality into energy security for China and the world [3] - With continuous maturation and improvement of the technology, CNOOC is expected to lead the development trend of global heavy oil extraction technology in the future [3]

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved significant progress in the large-scale application of offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology, with cumulative production exceeding 5 million tons, making China the first country globally to realize large-scale thermal recovery development of offshore heavy oil [1] Group 1: Technology and Equipment - Heavy oil, characterized by high viscosity, density, and poor flowability, poses significant extraction challenges, especially in offshore environments where operational space is limited and costs are high [1] - CNOOC has developed world-leading equipment capable of withstanding temperatures up to 350°C for thermal recovery, including compact and efficient thermal injection equipment, downhole safety control systems, and long-lasting sand control devices [1] - The company has also designed and constructed the world's first mobile thermal injection platform, "Thermal Recovery No. 1," filling a gap in China's offshore heavy oil thermal recovery equipment sector [1] Group 2: Production Areas - The offshore heavy oil thermal recovery operations are primarily concentrated in the Bohai Sea, with key thermal recovery oil fields established, including Nanpu 35-2, Luda 21-2, and Jinzhou 23-2 [1]

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved significant progress in the large-scale application of offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology, with cumulative production exceeding 5 million tons, making China the first country globally to achieve large-scale thermal recovery of offshore heavy oil [1][4] Industry Overview - Heavy oil, characterized by high viscosity, density, and poor flowability, poses significant extraction challenges, especially in offshore environments where operational space is limited and costs are high [1] - Approximately 70% of the world's remaining oil resources consist of heavy oil, making it a primary focus for oil-producing countries aiming to increase production [1] Technological Advancements - CNOOC has developed a "few wells, high yield" thermal recovery theory, utilizing a large well spacing approach combined with high-intensity injection and multi-phase thermal fluid collaboration to enhance single well output [4] - The company has successfully created world-leading equipment capable of withstanding temperatures of 350°C for thermal recovery, along with a mobile thermal injection platform, "Thermal Recovery No. 1," filling a gap in offshore heavy oil thermal recovery equipment [4] Production Capacity and Future Plans - The development of the thermal recovery technology system and core equipment has accelerated the construction of offshore heavy oil production capacity, with expectations to exceed 1 million tons in production by 2024 [4] - CNOOC plans to intensify technological research and expedite the development of heavy oil fields to continuously enhance the ability to utilize heavy oil reserves [4]

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved significant progress in the large-scale application of offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology, with cumulative production exceeding 5 million tons, making China the first country globally to realize large-scale thermal recovery development of offshore heavy oil [1][3] Industry Overview - Heavy oil is characterized by high viscosity, high density, poor fluidity, and a tendency to solidify, making extraction challenging. Compared to onshore oil fields, offshore operations face smaller working spaces and higher costs, presenting dual challenges in technical equipment and economic efficiency [3] - Approximately 70% of the world's remaining oil resources consist of heavy oil, which is a primary focus for oil-producing countries aiming to increase production. The industry primarily employs thermal recovery methods for high-viscosity oil, which involves injecting high-temperature, high-pressure steam into the reservoir to reduce viscosity and convert heavy oil into more easily extractable "light oil" [3] Development Focus - China's offshore heavy oil thermal recovery is mainly concentrated in the Bohai Sea, with several key thermal recovery oil fields established, including Nanpu 35-2, Ludao 21-2, and Jinzhou 23-2 [3]

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced significant progress in the large-scale application of offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology, achieving a cumulative production of over 5 million tons, making China the first country globally to realize large-scale thermal recovery of offshore heavy oil [2] Group 1: Technology and Equipment - Heavy oil, characterized by high viscosity, density, poor fluidity, and tendency to solidify, poses significant extraction challenges, especially in offshore environments where operational space is limited and costs are high [2] - CNOOC has developed world-leading equipment capable of withstanding temperatures of 350°C for thermal recovery, along with efficient small-scale heating injection equipment, downhole safety control systems, and long-lasting sand control devices [2] - The company has designed and constructed the world's first mobile heating injection platform, "Thermal Recovery No. 1," filling a gap in China's offshore heavy oil thermal recovery equipment sector [2] Group 2: Production Areas - The offshore heavy oil thermal recovery efforts are primarily concentrated in the Bohai Sea, with key thermal recovery oil fields established, including Nanpu 35-2, Luda 21-2, and Jinzhou 23-2 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Three" oil companies in China, namely China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 due to falling international oil prices, despite continuing to distribute substantial dividends [2][4][8]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the combined revenue of CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC reached approximately 3.07 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 175.01 billion yuan, representing a decrease of over 29 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2][4]. - CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC reported revenues of 1.45 trillion yuan, 1.41 trillion yuan, and 207.61 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 6.74%, 10.60%, and 8.45% [4]. - Corresponding net profits for the three companies were 839.93 billion yuan, 214.83 billion yuan, and 695.33 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 5.42%, 39.83%, and 12.79% [4]. Oil Price Impact - The average Brent crude oil price for the first half of 2025 was 71.87 USD/barrel, down 14.5% from 84.06 USD/barrel in the previous year, while the average price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was 67.60 USD/barrel, down 14.4% from 78.95 USD/barrel [4]. - The average selling prices of crude oil for CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC were 66.21 USD/barrel, 67 USD/barrel, and 69.15 USD/barrel, showing declines of 14.5%, 12.9%, and 13.9% respectively [5]. Natural Gas Performance - CNPC's natural gas segment saw a volume increase of 2.9% year-on-year, with sales reaching 151.5 billion cubic meters and operating profit rising to 18.6 billion yuan [6]. - CNOOC's natural gas revenue grew by over 16% to 27.75 billion yuan, driven by the full production of the "Deep Sea No. 1" project [6]. Dividend Distribution - Despite the decline in performance, the "Big Three" maintained a high dividend payout strategy, distributing a total of over 82.5 billion yuan, although this was a reduction of approximately 7.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the average international oil price for 2025 will hover around 70 USD/barrel, with potential upward risks to 90 USD/barrel and downward risks to 45 USD/barrel [3][9]. - The outlook for oil prices remains cautious, with expectations of increased downward pressure due to geopolitical factors and seasonal demand fluctuations [8][10].

Group 1: Offshore Heavy Oil Thermal Recovery Progress - China has achieved significant progress in the large-scale application of offshore heavy oil thermal recovery technology, with cumulative production exceeding 5 million tons, making it the first country to achieve large-scale thermal recovery of offshore heavy oil [1] - The Luda 5-2 North Oilfield Phase II project, which began production in February, has added over 20 million tons of recoverable heavy oil reserves and has a daily thermal recovery production exceeding 500 tons, contributing over 100,000 tons to cumulative thermal recovery output [1] - The newly launched Kengli 10-2 oilfield development project has added over 14 million tons of recoverable heavy oil reserves, with total thermal recovery production in the offshore sector exceeding 130,000 tons this year, setting a historical high for the same period [1] Group 2: Heavy Oil Resource Potential - China is one of the world's four largest heavy oil producers, with an estimated heavy oil resource of approximately 19.87 billion tons and proven reserves of 3.5 billion tons, indicating significant development potential [5] - Currently, less than 3% of the annual crude oil production of over 30 million tons from Bohai Oilfield comes from unconventional heavy oil, highlighting the importance of converting heavy oil reserves into production for enhancing domestic oil and gas exploration and development [5] Group 3: Applications and Importance of Heavy Oil - Heavy oil is a valuable petrochemical raw material, often referred to as "black gold," and can be refined into lubricants, greases, and various types of asphalt used in transportation and construction [6][8] - In industrial applications, heavy oil can be refined into low-congealing diesel suitable for cold regions, high-performance lubricants, and electrical insulation oil, while also serving as a core raw material for road paving asphalt and waterproofing asphalt in construction [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but demonstrated resilience through effective cost control and production growth strategies amid fluctuating international oil prices [1][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 207.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.5 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 100.8 billion yuan, a decline of 12.6% year-on-year and 5.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 33.0 billion yuan, down 17.6% year-on-year and 9.8% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Operational Highlights - The company achieved a record net production of 38.5 million barrels of oil equivalent in H1 2025, marking a 6.1% year-on-year increase [2]. - Natural gas production saw a significant increase of 12% year-on-year, supported by successful project launches and ongoing production from major gas fields [2]. - The average realized oil price was 69.15 USD per barrel, down 13.9% year-on-year, while the average realized natural gas price was 7.9 USD per thousand cubic feet, up 1.4% year-on-year [2]. Cost Management - The company reported a decrease in oil production costs by 0.81 USD per barrel, with the main cost at 26.94 USD per barrel of oil equivalent, down 2.9% year-on-year [3]. - The company maintained a strong cost control strategy, with operating expenses and depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A) costs also showing slight reductions [3]. Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - In H1 2025, capital expenditures totaled 57.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.8% year-on-year, with a budget of 125 to 135 billion yuan for 2025 to support stable production growth [4]. - The company set production targets of 76 to 78 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2025, with a focus on high-quality development and effective production growth [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 45.9% in H1 2025, with an interim dividend of 0.73 HKD per share, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns despite market fluctuations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of China's three major oil companies, namely China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), has been adversely affected by fluctuations in international oil prices, leading to a decline in both revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. Financial Performance - The combined revenue of the three companies reached 3.07 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 175.01 billion yuan, both showing varying degrees of year-on-year decline [3][4]. - Sinopec reported a revenue of 1.41 trillion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 214.83 billion yuan, down 39.8% [4]. - CNPC achieved a revenue of 1.45 trillion yuan and a net profit of 839.93 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.7% and 5.4%, respectively [4]. - CNOOC's revenue was 207.61 billion yuan, down 8%, with a net profit of 695.33 billion yuan, down 13% [4]. Market Conditions - The decline in performance is attributed to the downward trend in international crude oil prices and reduced domestic demand for gasoline and diesel [5][6]. - The average price of Brent crude oil fell by 14.5% year-on-year to $71.87 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped by 14.4% to $67.60 per barrel [6]. Operational Strategies - Sinopec emphasized the importance of maintaining cash flow and a stable financial position despite the significant decline in profitability [7]. - CNOOC highlighted its strategy of preparing for low oil prices by controlling costs and focusing on high-quality development, achieving a further reduction in its breakeven cost to $26.94 per barrel [7]. Exploration and Development - The three companies have increased their exploration and development efforts to ensure national oil and gas resource supply [10][11]. - Sinopec made significant breakthroughs in offshore oil and gas exploration and shale gas development in the Sichuan Basin [10]. - CNOOC reported new discoveries and evaluations of oil and gas structures, as well as ongoing exploration in strategic areas [10]. Production Growth - In terms of production, CNPC's oil and gas equivalent output reached 924 million barrels, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, while Sinopec's output was 263 million barrels, also up 2.0% [11]. - CNOOC achieved a net production of 385 million barrels of oil equivalent, marking a 6.1% increase [11]. Transition to Renewable Energy - The three companies are actively pursuing transitions to renewable energy in various ways [12][13]. - Sinopec reported a 70% increase in wind and solar power generation, reaching 3.69 billion kilowatt-hours [12]. - CNOOC is focusing on integrating renewable energy with oil and gas resources, achieving significant reductions in energy consumption and emissions [13].