Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company, with target prices set at RMB 33.41 and HKD 27.04 respectively [2][6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 312.5 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 102 billion, down 13% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of RMB 104.9 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6% and a year-on-year decline of 4% [2]. - The decline in net profit was attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB and lower-than-expected oil production due to typhoons and asset sales in the Gulf of Mexico [2]. - The company has shown resilience against oil price fluctuations, with effective cost reduction and quality improvement measures [2]. Revenue and Production - The company's oil and gas net production reached 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with oil liquid and gas production growing by 5.4% and 11.6% respectively [3]. - Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 68.2 per barrel in Q3, down 13.4% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was USD 66.2 per barrel, a decrease of 12.8% [3]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year to 52.2%, with Q3 gross margin at 49.8% [3]. Market Conditions - Oil prices have entered a downward trend due to the end of the peak season and increased supply from OPEC+, with WTI and Brent crude prices reported at USD 60.48 and USD 64.92 per barrel respectively [4]. - The report predicts that global oil supply will face excess pressure, particularly from the Middle East, starting in Q4 2025 [4]. Capital Expenditure and Projects - The company completed capital expenditures of RMB 86 billion in the first three quarters, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, with significant progress in key projects [5]. - New discoveries and projects have been successfully evaluated and put into production, contributing to future growth [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to RMB 128 billion, RMB 122.9 billion, and RMB 129.6 billion respectively, reflecting a decrease of 3.3%, 2.6%, and 1.9% from previous estimates [6]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9x for 2026, with target prices reflecting the company's high oil production ratio and sensitivity to oil price changes [6].

Group 1 - The oil and gas extraction sector increased by 0.2% compared to the previous trading day, with Intercontinental Oil leading the gains [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] - The main capital flow into the oil and gas extraction sector was a net inflow of 57.49 million yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 37.18 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Among individual stocks, China National Offshore Oil Corporation saw a net inflow of 89.82 million yuan from main capital, but experienced net outflows from both retail and speculative capital [2] - Intercontinental Oil had a net outflow of 28.02 million yuan from main capital, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 25.69 million yuan [2] - The stock performance varied, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation showing a net inflow of 8.34% from main capital, while *ST New潮 had a significant net outflow of 7.92% from main capital [2]

中国海油 2025Q3 归母净利润 324 亿 中国海油（600938） 证券研究报告 Q3 净利润 324 亿符合预期 公司报告 | 季报点评 公司 2025Q3 收入 1049 亿元，同比+5.7%，归母净利润 324 亿，同比-12.16%， 基本符合预期。 产量保持高增速 2025Q3 油气总产量 194mmboe，同比+7.9%；油、气产量分别同比+7.1%、 +10.4%。我们认为环比略有下降主要受台风影响。 桶油成本受台风影响环比略有提升 2025Q1-Q3 桶油成本 27.35 美元/桶，同比-0.79 美元/桶。Q3 单季度桶油成 本环比略有上升 1.31 美金/桶（台风影响产量下滑）。 实现油价较 Brent 折价环比略有扩大 2025Q3 原油实现价格 66.62 美元/桶，比布伦特折价 1.6 美元/桶，折价幅 度同比缩小、环比略有扩大。Q3 天然气实现价格 1.96 元/方，同比基本持 平。 现金流及资本开支 2025Q1-Q3 经营现金流 1717 亿，同比-6%；资本开支 860 亿，同比-10%， 全年资本开支计划 1250-1350 亿。 盈利预测与投资评级 : 维持预测 公 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 中国海油（600938.SH） 中国海洋石油（0883.HK） 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金 隅大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] Q3 受台风影响利润环比下滑，业绩符合预期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 31 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]10 月 30 日晚，中国海油发布 2025 年三季度报告。2025 年 前三季度，公司实现营收 3125.03 亿元，同比-4.15%；实现归母净利润 1019.71 亿元，同比-12.59%；扣非后归母净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is entering a downward cycle due to high costs and weak supply-demand dynamics, despite maintaining high capital expenditure and supply growth since the peak in 2021. However, there are "long-termist" companies capable of navigating through the cycle, providing substantial returns to investors through growth and dividends [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry has experienced high capital expenditure and significant supply growth since the peak in 2021, but demand recovery remains relatively weak, leading to a high-cost and weak supply-demand environment [1]. - Long-termist companies in the chemical sector are characterized by strong shareholder backgrounds, excellent management capabilities, reasonable industry chain layouts, continuous R&D investment, and a strong sense of social responsibility, enabling them to achieve stable growth and sustainable development [2]. Group 2: Oil and Gas Sector - The "three major oil companies" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are expected to maintain high capital expenditure and enhance natural gas market development, aiming for long-term growth despite oil price fluctuations [3]. - The domestic oil service companies are benefiting from high upstream capital expenditure, with improved operational quality and international competitiveness, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [3]. Group 3: Refining and Chemical Fiber Industry - The refining and chemical fiber industry is anticipated to recover, with the refining expansion nearing completion and supply-demand dynamics expected to improve, leading to high-quality development in the sector [4]. - The polyester sector is seeing limited new capacity, with structural optimization accelerating, which is expected to enhance the market share and competitiveness of leading companies [4]. Group 4: Coal Chemical Industry - The coal chemical industry is projected to improve profitability due to a gradual easing of coal supply and demand, alongside a decline in coal prices. The transition towards modern coal chemical processes is seen as essential for traditional coal enterprises [5]. - The average prices for various coal types have decreased, with main coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite prices showing declines of -10.5%, -2.0%, and -16.0% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the upstream oil and gas sector and oil service companies, including China National Petroleum (601857.SH), Sinopec (600028.SH), CNOOC (600938.SH), and others [6]. - For the refining and chemical fiber sector, companies like Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) are recommended due to their potential benefits from industry optimization and upgrades [7]. - In the coal chemical sector, companies such as Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH) and Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) are highlighted for their expected improvement in profitability [7]. - The report also suggests monitoring cyclical leading companies like Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) and Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) as demand recovers and supply-demand dynamics improve [7].

瑞银发布研报称，中国海洋石油(00883)首三季净利润同比下降12.6%至1,020亿元人民币(下同)，当中第 三季净利润324亿元，同比及按季分别跌12.2%及1.6%，符合该行预期。首三季油气产量同比增长6.7% 至5.783亿桶油当量，当中天然气产量同比增长11.6%;每桶成本维持稳定于27.35美元。首三季及第三季 公司实现油价分别同比跌13.6%及12.8%，跌幅略小于布伦特原油价格跌幅。天然气价格保持稳定，首 三季及第三季分别同比升1%及0.6%。该行维持"买入"评级及目标价26.5港元。 ...

中银国际发布研报称，中国海洋石油(00883)第三季净利润录324亿元人民币，同比跌12%，按季跌2%， 仍胜该行预期6%，主要因交易利润高过预期;而盈利下跌则因产量按季轻微回落，以及单位成本按季上 升。该行预期第四季利润将按季下降21%，因预期油价下跌及成本增加;将2025年盈利预测上调1%，重 申"买入"评级，H股目标价由原先24.87港元上调至25.06港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，中国海洋石油(00883)首三季净利润同比下降12.6%至1,020亿元人 民币(下同)，当中第三季净利润324亿元，同比及按季分别跌12.2%及1.6%，符合该行预期。首三季油气 产量同比增长6.7%至5.783亿桶油当量，当中天然气产量同比增长11.6%;每桶成本维持稳定于27.35美 元。首三季及第三季公司实现油价分别同比跌13.6%及12.8%，跌幅略小于布伦特原油价格跌幅。天然 气价格保持稳定，首三季及第三季分别同比升1%及0.6%。该行维持"买入"评级及目标价26.5港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，中国海洋石油(00883)第三季净利润录324亿元人民币，同比 跌12%，按季跌2%，仍胜该行预期6%，主要因交易利润高过预期;而盈利下跌则因产量按季轻微回落， 以及单位成本按季上升。该行预期第四季利润将按季下降21%，因预期油价下跌及成本增加;将2025年 盈利预测上调1%，重申"买入"评级，H股目标价由原先24.87港元上调至25.06港元。 ...

➢ 汇兑损益影响期间费用，25Q3 利润环比下滑。25Q3，公司实现营业收入 1049.0 亿元，同比上升 5.7%，环比上升 4.1%；实现归母净利润 324.4 亿元， 同比下降 12.2%，环比下降 1.6%；实现扣非归母净利润 315.6 亿元，同比下降 13.9%，环比下降 2.4%。环比来看，25Q3 公司实现毛利润 522.4 亿元，环比下 降 0.7%；期间费用为 43.6 亿元，环比增长 87.0%，主要是受汇兑损益影响，财 务费用环比增长了 17.2 亿元。 ➢ 油气产量同比稳步增长。25Q3，公司实现油气净产量 1.94 亿桶油当量，同 比增长 7.9%，环比下降 1.1%。分区域看，公司在国内/海外的油气净产量分别 为 1.34/0.59 亿桶油当量，同比增长 10.4%/2.1%，环比下降 1.0%/1.5%，占总 产量的比重为 69.3%/30.7%。分产品看，石油产量为 1.49 亿桶，同比增长 7.3%、 环比下降 0.9%；天然气产量 2612 亿立方英尺，同比增长 10.9%、环比下降 0.8%。 中国海油（600938.SH）2025 年三季报点评 业绩稳健，持续上产 2 ...