国际黄金、白银继续飙升，黄金突破5000美元，白银站上108美元，A股和港股的贵金属板块再度大涨。 1月26日，A股震荡调整，三大股指走势分化，在沪深300、上证50的推动下，沪指走高，创业板则一度跌1%，黄金 股再度爆发，太空光伏、商业航天概念股高开之后显著调整。港股高开低走，恒科指跌近2%，科网股普跌，黄金 股领涨，老铺黄金一度涨超12%。债市方面，国债期货普遍走低。商品方面，国内商品期货大面积上涨，金属期货 爆发，沪银涨超13%。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | Inves | 4147.38 | 11.21 | 0.27% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | NA | 14379.86 | -59.79 | -0.41% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | W/ | 3335.09 | -14.41 | -0.43% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | mi | 4736.49 | 34.00 | 0.72% | | 000016 | ...

【油气板块震荡走强 中国海油涨超5%创历史新高】智通财经1月26日电，油气板块盘中震荡走强 ，中 国海油涨超5%，创历史新高，中国石油、中国石化涨超4%，通源石油、潜能恒信、山东墨龙、中海油 服等跟涨。消息面上，受侵袭美国大部分地区的冬季风暴影响，美国天然气价格1月25日大幅飙升，期 货价格自2022年以来首次突破每百万英热单位6美元关口。 转自：智通财经 ...

证券研究报告 原油周报：美伊局势紧张，支撑国际油价 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年1月25日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别64.8/60.1美元/桶，较上周分别+0.1/-0.1美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.3/4.1/0.3亿桶，环比 +441/+360/+81/+148万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1373万桶/天，环比-2万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周411台，环比+1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周160部，环比+3部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1660万桶/天，环比-35万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为93.3%，环比-2.0pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量为645/ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent tensions in Sino-Japanese relations are expected to accelerate the domestic substitution of Japanese semiconductor materials, as Japan holds a significant market share in this sector while domestic production rates are relatively low [3] - The chemical industry in China is anticipated to undergo a revaluation due to anti-involution measures, which are likely to slow down global capacity expansion significantly. This shift could enhance the dividend yield potential of Chinese chemical companies, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones [4] - The report highlights four major investment opportunities: low-cost expansion, improved industry sentiment, new materials, and high dividend yields [8][9][10] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - Key targets for semiconductor material substitution include: 1) Photoresists: Dinglong Co., Yanggu Huatai, Tongcheng New Materials, and others 2) Wet electronic chemicals: Jianghua Micro, Greenland, and others 3) Electronic gases: Haohua Technology, Juhua Co., and others 4) Mask plates: Qingyi Optoelectronics, Luwei Optoelectronics 5) CMP polishing liquids and pads: Anji Technology, Dinglong Co., Jiangfeng Electronics 6) Sputtering targets: Jiangfeng Electronics, Longhua Technology, and others [3] Industry Performance - The chemical industry has shown strong performance with a 1-month increase of 16.5%, a 3-month increase of 23.4%, and a 12-month increase of 53.9% compared to the CSI 300 index [6] Key Product Price Analysis - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 15% week-on-week to 13,800 RMB/ton, driven by maintenance at lithium salt plants and optimistic demand forecasts in the energy storage sector [12] - Pure benzene price rose by 7.96% week-on-week to approximately 5,965 RMB/ton, influenced by reduced imports and strong domestic demand [12] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report includes a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the chemical sector, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2024 to 2026 [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day for this year [6][16]. - The EIA has adjusted its 2026 oil price forecast upward to an average of $56 per barrel, while lowering the natural gas price forecast to $3.46 per million British thermal units [7][11]. - The IEA expects a demand increase of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC and EIA have slightly reduced their demand forecasts [11][16]. Supply and Demand Summary - The EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for this year by 120,000 barrels per day, while the IEA has increased its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [13][16]. - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will rise by 1.37 million barrels per day in 2026, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 1.13 million barrels per day [15][16]. - The IEA projects a global oil supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [16]. Price Trends Summary - The price of butadiene has surged over 28% since the beginning of the year, driven by a narrowing price spread between naphtha and ethylene [17]. - As of January 23, the spot price of butadiene reached 10,700 yuan per ton [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and improving market conditions [21]. - It suggests monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as refining margins are expected to improve [21]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering, given the high capital expenditure in offshore exploration [21].

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] | | | 上次评级——看好 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 ➢ 相关标的：中国海油/中国海洋石油（600938.SH/0883.HK）、中国 石油/中国石油股份（601857.SH/0857.HK）、中国石化/中国石油化 工 股 份 （600028.SH/0386.HK） 、 中 海 油 服/中 海 油 田 服 务 （601808.SH/2883.HK）、 海油 工程（600583.SH）、中 曼石 油 （603619.SH）等。 ➢ 风险因素：（1）中东地区巴以冲突等地缘政治因素对油价出现大幅 度的干扰。（2）美国对委内瑞拉的潜在政策不确定性。（3）美国 与伊朗谈判的不确定性。（4）美国为推动俄乌冲突结束，造成原油 市场波动。（5）宏观经济增速下滑，导致需求端不振。（6）新能 源加大替代传统石油需求的风险 ...

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周原油价格继续反弹。主要核心驱动因素仍然在于地缘风险，美国继续调动军事力量以威胁伊朗，同时 哈萨克斯坦油田复产延期，预期 CPC 管道停滞及动力装置火灾导致的油田停产可能延续至 1 月末。另外由于寒冷 天气美国北达科他州产量下滑 8-11 万桶/天。尽管基本面供给过剩但地缘风险成为了市场交易的核心。未来关注 焦点主要在于特朗普是否打击伊朗以及伊朗是否有供应损失。特朗普强调理想油价在 50 美元/桶附近，我们认为 除非特朗普对伊朗地缘出现误判，否则 2026 年地缘冲突带来的价格上涨不具备持续性。当前向上驱动来自于地 缘政治，供需向下的局面仍未改变。截止 1 月 23 日，WTI 现货收于 61.07 美元，环比+1.63 美元；BRENT 现货收 于 68.73 美元，环比+0.95 美元。EIA1 月 16 日当周商业原油库存环比+360.2 万桶，前值+339.1 万桶。其中库欣 原油环比+147.8 万桶，前值+74.5 万桶。汽油库存环比+597.7 万桶，前值+897.7 万 ...

每经记者｜刘明涛 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 成分股方面，TCL电子本周涨幅高达24.77%；潍柴动力继续保持强势，周涨幅也达到12.33%；此外，百度集团-SW、中国重汽、招商蛇口、四川长虹、保利 发展、中国海油、中国石化的周涨幅也均超过5%。周市值增长方面，中国海油本周市值增长达到983.87亿元，市值增长接近千亿元。 | | | 有业内人士指出，随着浙江威乐公司在技术、运营能力上的持续提升，以及业务规模效应逐步显现，该业务的盈利能力和利润率水平有望随之稳步改善。 与此同时，四川长虹一直强化AI技术赋能，其在AI技术领域的聚焦突破，不仅有效提升了居家空气品质，也持续释放新的消费潜力。日前，在2026年国际 消费电子展上，四川长虹与高通联合推出新款AT TV Q10Light。据悉，这款长虹新品将搭载端侧AI字幕翻译大模型，可实现影视内容的音频对话到指定语种 的实时转译与字幕同步显示。1月6日，长虹空调还发布了AI人感空调系列矩阵新品，全面覆盖不同场景下的用户需求，将技术优势转化为场景化体验优 势。 在之前一次机构调研中，四川长虹就曾表示，长虹云帆AI大模型核心聚焦智慧家电领域，是家电领域首个通过国家备案的大模型。优 ...

石化周报 中东地缘风声再起，建议关注后续演变 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | 9.83 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600938.SH | 中国海油 | 31.40 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.68 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600028.SH | 中国石化 | 6.15 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 15 | 20 | 18 | 推荐 | | 603619.SH | 中曼石油 | 28.23 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.99 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603393.S ...

相对走势 石化周报 中东地缘风声再起，建议关注后续演变 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | 9.83 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 推荐 | | 600938.SH | 中国海油 | 31.40 | 2.90 | 2.60 | 2.68 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600028.SH | 中国石化 | 6.15 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 15 | 20 | 18 | 推荐 | | 603619.SH | 中曼石油 | 28.23 | 1.76 | 1.48 | 1.99 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603 ...