[Table_StockNameRptType] 中国海油（600938） 公司点评 油气产量达到历史新高，桶油成本控制良好 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 石油石化 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 2024 年 10 月 29 日 中国海油 (600938) ——业绩符合预期，抗风险能力逐步显现 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 28 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 27.39 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 35.62/18.53 | | 市净率 | 1.8 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 4.66 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 77,838 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,322.20/10,685.89 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 15.12 | | 资产负债率 % | 33.24 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 326.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 99.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year and 13.9% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 36.93 billion yuan, an increase of 9.0% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The company continues to enhance its oil and gas reserves and production, with total oil and gas output reaching 54.21 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [6] - Capital expenditure remained high at 95.34 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting ongoing project advancements [6] - The company is expected to maintain strong profit certainty with projected net profits of 156 billion yuan, 160.1 billion yuan, and 165.3 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to EPS of 3.28 yuan, 3.37 yuan, and 3.48 yuan, with PE ratios of 8.3X, 8.1X, and 7.9X respectively [6][7] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 421.06 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.07% [7] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is estimated at 156.02 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 25.98% [7] - The company’s current price is 27.39 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 77.84 billion yuan [3][4]

中国海油（600938.SH）2024 年三季报点评 24Q3 利润同比增长，新签巴西区块潜力可期 2024 年 10 月 29 日 ➢ 事件：2024 年 10 月 28 日，公司发布 2024 年第三季度报告。2024 年前 三季度，公司实现营业收入3260.2亿元，同比增长6.3%；实现归母净利润1166.6 亿元，同比增长 19.5%；实现扣非归母净利润 1158.7 亿元，同比增长 21.1%。 ➢ 24Q3 归母净利润同比增长。24Q3，公司实现营业收入为 992.5 亿元，同 比下降 13.5%，环比下降 13.9%；归母净利润为 369.3 亿元，同比增长 9.0%， 环比下降 7.7%；扣非归母净利润为 366.7 亿元，同比增长 9.9%，环比下降 7.7%。 ➢ 24Q3 油气产量同比增长 7%。24Q3，公司油气净产量为 179.5 百万桶油 当量（包含权益法核算的 5.2 百万桶油当量），同/环比+6.9%/-1.6%。分区域 来看，24Q3 国内产量实现 121.6 百万桶油当量，同/环比+6.3%/-2.3%；国外 实现 58.1 百万桶油当量，同/环比+8.8%/+0.2%。分 ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 Q3 净利润 369 亿，业绩符合预期 中国海油 2024Q3 业绩符合预期 2024Q3 归母净利润 369 亿元，同比+9%，基本符合市场预期。业绩简单拆 分：1）产量同比+7%；2）桶油成本几乎持平；3）平均实现价格同比-6.5%， 原油实现价格同比-8.2%，天然气实现价格同比+2.6%；4）汇率同比升值。 产量同比+7%，主要来自南美 payara 项目投产贡献 2024Q3 净产量 179.6MMBOE，同比+7%，公司推广运用台风模式远程遥控， 减少台风期间产量损失，符合年初给的产量增长指引，其中国内同比+6.9%， 海外同比+12.2%。海外增长更高主要得益于南美洲原油产量同比+30%，来 自圭亚那 Payara 投产贡献。 此外公司签订了巴西 4 个海上勘探区块石油合同（矿税制），其中 S-M-1813 区块公司拥有 100%的作业者权益，P-M-1737/39/97 区块公司拥有 20%的非 作业者权益，我们认为这将为未来增产奠定坚实的储量基础。 桶油成本同比几乎持平 成本方面，2024Q3 桶油主要成本 28.93 美金/桶，环比提升 1.02 美金/桶， 同比基 ...

华福证券 包 研 中国海油（600938.SH） 增储上产持续发力，桶油成本管控良好 投资要点： 事件 中国海油发布公司 24 年三季度报告，公司 Q1-Q3 实现营业收入 3260.24 亿元，同比去年上升 6.3%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 1166.59 亿元，同比增加 19.5%，基本每股收益 2.45 元。Q3 单季度实 现营业收入 992.54 亿元，同比下滑 13.5%，，归母净利润 369.28 亿元， 同比增加 9%。 增储上产持续见成效 一年内股价相对走势 公司实现油气销售收入人民币 2714.3 亿元，同比上升 13.9%， 主 要原因是销量增加、实现价格上涨以及汇率变动的综合影响。2024 年 前三季度，绥中 36-1/旅大 5-2 油田二次调整开发项目、深海一号二 期天然气开发项目和渤中 19-2 油田开发项目等顺利投产，其他新项 目正稳步推进。 前三季度油气净产量达 542.1 百万桶油当量，同比上升 8.5%，三 季度单季油气产量为 179.6 百万桶油当量，同比上升 7%。分区域来看， 中国净产量 369.2 百万桶油当量，同比上升 6.8%，主要得益于渤中 19-6 和恩 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年10月29日 中国海油（600938.SH） 优于大市 油气产量同比增长 8.5%，新签署 4 个巴西海上勘探区块合同 公司第三季度实现归母净利润 369 亿元，业绩符合预期。公司 2024 年前三 季度实现营业收入 3260.2 亿元（同比+6.3%），归母净利润 1166.6 亿 元（同比+19.5%），经营性净现金流 1827.7 亿元（同比+14.9%），自 由现金流 874.3 亿元（同比+25.6%）。公司 2024 年第三季度实现营业 收入 992.5 亿元（同比-13.5%，环比-13.9%），主要由于贸易收入减少 所致，归母净利润 369.3 亿元（同比+9.0%，环比-7.7%），扣非归母净 利润为 366.7 亿元（同比+9.9%，环比-7.7%），业绩符合预期。 公司油气净产量再创新高，桶油成本持续优化。公司 2024 年前三季度油气 销售收入为 2714.3 亿元（同比+13.9%），油气净产量达到 542.1 百万桶油 当量（同比+8.5%），其中国内净产量 369.2 百万桶油当量（同比+6.8%）， 得益于渤中 19-6 和恩平 20-4 等油气田的 ...

2024 年 10 月 28 日 收益表现 % 1M 3M 1Y 相对 -5.32 -22.18 35.68 绝对 -6.66 -5.27 46.29 资料来源：Wind 公司研究 油价下行经营韧性凸显，前三季度净产量、净利润再创历史新高 ——中国海油（600938.SH）2024 年三季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：27.39 元 要点 事件： 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 市场数据 总股本(亿股) 475.30 总市值(亿元)： 13018.45 一年最低/最高 (元)： 17.77/34.17 近 3 月换手率： 5.96% 股价相对走势 -10% 11% 33% 54% 75% 10/23 01/24 04/24 07/24 中国海油 沪深300 相关研报 增量 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintain)-A / Buy (Maintain)-H [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 3260.2 billion yuan (YoY +6.3%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1166.6 billion yuan (YoY +19.5%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company signed new contracts for 4 offshore exploration blocks in Brazil, continuing to increase reserves and production [1] - The company's oil and gas net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (YoY +8.5%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company's capital expenditure increased by 5.9 billion yuan (YoY +7%) to 95.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company's oil cost control is excellent, with the main cost per barrel of oil at 28.14 USD/barrel (YoY -0.8%) [1] - The company focuses on shareholder returns, with a predicted dividend payout of 64.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a dividend yield of 5.0% for A-shares and 7.9% for H-shares [1] Financial Performance - The company's operating income is expected to grow from 445.777 billion yuan in 2024E to 498.762 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 5.8% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 150.004 billion yuan in 2024E to 172.916 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7.4% [1] - The company's EPS is expected to grow from 3.16 yuan/share in 2024E to 3.64 yuan/share in 2026E [1] - The company's P/E ratio for A-shares is expected to decrease from 8.68x in 2024E to 7.53x in 2026E [1] - The company's P/E ratio for H-shares is expected to decrease from 5.43x in 2024E to 4.71x in 2026E [1] Production and Costs - The company's oil and gas net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (YoY +8.5%) in the first three quarters of 2024, with oil production at 422.4 million barrels (YoY +8%) and natural gas production at 19.7 billion cubic meters (YoY +10%) [1] - The company's oil sales price increased from 76.8 USD/barrel in the first three quarters of 2023 to 79.0 USD/barrel in the first three quarters of 2024 (YoY +3%) [1] - The company's main cost per barrel of oil was 28.14 USD/barrel (YoY -0.8%), with operating expenses at 7.21 USD/barrel (YoY -1.5%) [1] Capital Expenditure and Projects - The company's capital expenditure increased by 5.9 billion yuan (YoY +7%) to 95.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, mainly due to increased workload in ongoing projects and adjustment wells [1] - The company's 2024 capital expenditure target is 1250-1350 billion yuan, with a YoY growth rate of -4% to +4% [1] - The company's production growth is supported by the contribution of oil and gas fields such as Bozhong 19-6 and Enping 20-4, as well as the production increase from the Payara project in Guyana [1] Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to pay a dividend of 64.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend yield of 5.0% for A-shares and 7.9% for H-shares [1] - The company's dividend payout ratio is expected to be 43% in 2024 [1]

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