Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a historical high in oil and gas production, with good control over barrel oil costs [1] - The net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q3, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, with oil liquids and natural gas accounting for 77.9% and 22.1% respectively [1] - The company reported a revenue of 326.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.47% year-on-year [1] - The company maintains a competitive edge with low barrel oil production costs and advanced production technology, with a barrel oil cost of 28.14 USD, roughly flat year-on-year [1] - The company has been actively increasing capital expenditures to ensure growth in reserves and production, with a capital expenditure of 129.6 billion yuan in 2023, the highest in history [1][2] Financial Performance - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 149.45 billion, 159.89 billion, and 172.08 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.7%, 7.0%, and 7.6% [3] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 8.71, 8.14, and 7.57 [3] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is expected to be 416.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [4] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 49.9% in 2023 to 54.9% in 2026 [4] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 1,005.60 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,420.55 billion yuan in 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 326.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [6][7] - The company has shown resilience against risks, with a gross margin of 56.14% in Q3, indicating structural improvement due to a focus on core business and reduced trading activities [6][5] - Future oil price trends are expected to remain volatile, with a downward expectation due to geopolitical factors, but demand recovery may provide some support [5][6] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 99.25 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 13.92%, and a net profit of 36.93 billion yuan, down 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The overall capital expenditure for the first three quarters reached 95.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, focusing on development to boost reserves and production [5][6] - The company achieved a historical high in oil and gas production, with a net production of 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 8.5% year-on-year [5][6] Cost and Profitability - The company's cost per barrel of oil equivalent was 28.14 USD, a decrease of 0.8% year-on-year, maintaining a competitive edge globally [6] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 at 150.6 billion, 155.6 billion, and 160.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9X, 8X, and 8X [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 326.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 99.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year and 13.9% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 36.93 billion yuan, an increase of 9.0% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The company continues to enhance its oil and gas reserves and production, with total oil and gas output reaching 54.21 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [6] - Capital expenditure remained high at 95.34 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting ongoing project advancements [6] - The company is expected to maintain strong profit certainty with projected net profits of 156 billion yuan, 160.1 billion yuan, and 165.3 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to EPS of 3.28 yuan, 3.37 yuan, and 3.48 yuan, with PE ratios of 8.3X, 8.1X, and 7.9X respectively [6][7] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 421.06 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.07% [7] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is estimated at 156.02 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 25.98% [7] - The company’s current price is 27.39 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 77.84 billion yuan [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 326.02 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 99.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, but a net profit of 36.93 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.0% [1]. - The company signed four new oil contracts in Brazil, indicating strong potential for future production growth [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 416.61 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.3%, while 2024 is expected to see a revenue increase to 424.82 billion yuan, a growth of 2.0% [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 123.84 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant recovery to 146.98 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.7% increase [2][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.61 yuan in 2023 to 3.09 yuan in 2024 [2][4]. Production and Cost Management - The company reported a net oil and gas production of 179.5 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7% [1]. - The average realized price for oil was 76.41 USD per barrel in Q3 2024, down 8.2% year-on-year, while natural gas prices increased by 2.6% to 7.75 USD per thousand cubic feet [1]. - The company's cost control remains strong, with the main cost per barrel at 28.14 USD, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 146.98 billion yuan, 156.51 billion yuan, and 164.99 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.09 yuan, 3.29 yuan, and 3.47 yuan [2][4]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery for state-owned enterprises as performance evaluation systems are updated [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 net profit reached 36.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9%, which aligns with market expectations [1]. - The net production for Q3 2024 was 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE), up 7% year-on-year, primarily driven by the contribution from the Payara project in South America [2]. - The average oil price realization was $76.41 per barrel, with a discount of approximately $2.3 compared to Brent, indicating an improvement in pricing [4]. Financial Performance - Q3 2024 net profit was 36.9 billion yuan, with a breakdown showing production up 7% year-on-year, stable oil costs, and a 6.5% decrease in average realization price [1]. - The main cost per barrel of oil was $28.93, which is nearly flat year-on-year [3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 150.4 billion yuan, 166.4 billion yuan, and 171.5 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.7, 7.8, and 7.6 for A-shares [4][5]. Production and Projects - The production increase of 7% was supported by the successful implementation of remote control technology during typhoon seasons, minimizing production losses [2]. - The company has signed contracts for four offshore exploration blocks in Brazil, which are expected to provide a solid foundation for future production increases [2]. Market Position - The company has a total A-share market capitalization of approximately 81.9 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 77.8 billion yuan [6]. - The report indicates a projected dividend yield of 5.1% for A-shares and 8.1% for H-shares based on a dividend payout ratio of 44% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [2][9] Core Views - CNOOC's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 326.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 116.66 billion, up 19.5% [1] - The company achieved oil and gas sales revenue of RMB 271.43 billion, a 13.9% increase year-on-year, driven by increased sales volume, price rises, and exchange rate fluctuations [1] - CNOOC's oil and gas production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, an 8.5% increase year-on-year, with a quarterly production of 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 7% [1] - The company successfully discovered 9 new oil and gas fields and evaluated 23 structures in the first three quarters, indicating strong exploration capabilities [1] Financial Summary - The average realized oil price for CNOOC in the first three quarters was USD 79.03 per barrel, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, while the average gas price was USD 7.78 per thousand cubic feet, down 1.8% [1] - Capital expenditures for the first three quarters were approximately RMB 95.34 billion, a 6.6% increase year-on-year, with a budgeted capital expenditure of RMB 125-135 billion for 2024 [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is adjusted to RMB 145.9 billion, RMB 155 billion, and RMB 163.6 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 3.07, RMB 3.26, and RMB 3.44 [2][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][4][14] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36.9 billion yuan in the third quarter, meeting expectations. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 326.02 billion yuan (up 6.3% year-on-year) and a net profit of 116.66 billion yuan (up 19.5% year-on-year) [1][5] - The company signed four new offshore exploration contracts in Brazil, covering an area of approximately 2,600 square kilometers, indicating a positive outlook for long-term growth [2][11][13] - The company’s oil and gas production reached a record high, with a net production of 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (up 8.5% year-on-year) [2][9] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company’s oil and gas sales revenue was 271.43 billion yuan (up 13.9% year-on-year), with domestic net production contributing significantly [2][9] - The average realized price for oil liquids was 79.0 USD/barrel (up 2.9% year-on-year), with a narrowing discount to Brent crude prices [2][9] - The company’s capital expenditure target for 2024 is set at 125-135 billion yuan, with a reported capital expenditure of 95.34 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year [2][11] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 149.8 billion yuan, 156.4 billion yuan, and 163.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with diluted EPS projected at 3.15, 3.29, and 3.43 yuan [2][11][15]

2024 年 10 月 28 日 收益表现 % 1M 3M 1Y 相对 -5.32 -22.18 35.68 绝对 -6.66 -5.27 46.29 资料来源：Wind 公司研究 油价下行经营韧性凸显，前三季度净产量、净利润再创历史新高 ——中国海油（600938.SH）2024 年三季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：27.39 元 要点 事件： 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 市场数据 总股本(亿股) 475.30 总市值(亿元)： 13018.45 一年最低/最高 (元)： 17.77/34.17 近 3 月换手率： 5.96% 股价相对走势 -10% 11% 33% 54% 75% 10/23 01/24 04/24 07/24 中国海油 沪深300 相关研报 增量 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintain)-A / Buy (Maintain)-H [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 3260.2 billion yuan (YoY +6.3%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1166.6 billion yuan (YoY +19.5%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company signed new contracts for 4 offshore exploration blocks in Brazil, continuing to increase reserves and production [1] - The company's oil and gas net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (YoY +8.5%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company's capital expenditure increased by 5.9 billion yuan (YoY +7%) to 95.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company's oil cost control is excellent, with the main cost per barrel of oil at 28.14 USD/barrel (YoY -0.8%) [1] - The company focuses on shareholder returns, with a predicted dividend payout of 64.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a dividend yield of 5.0% for A-shares and 7.9% for H-shares [1] Financial Performance - The company's operating income is expected to grow from 445.777 billion yuan in 2024E to 498.762 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 5.8% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 150.004 billion yuan in 2024E to 172.916 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7.4% [1] - The company's EPS is expected to grow from 3.16 yuan/share in 2024E to 3.64 yuan/share in 2026E [1] - The company's P/E ratio for A-shares is expected to decrease from 8.68x in 2024E to 7.53x in 2026E [1] - The company's P/E ratio for H-shares is expected to decrease from 5.43x in 2024E to 4.71x in 2026E [1] Production and Costs - The company's oil and gas net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (YoY +8.5%) in the first three quarters of 2024, with oil production at 422.4 million barrels (YoY +8%) and natural gas production at 19.7 billion cubic meters (YoY +10%) [1] - The company's oil sales price increased from 76.8 USD/barrel in the first three quarters of 2023 to 79.0 USD/barrel in the first three quarters of 2024 (YoY +3%) [1] - The company's main cost per barrel of oil was 28.14 USD/barrel (YoY -0.8%), with operating expenses at 7.21 USD/barrel (YoY -1.5%) [1] Capital Expenditure and Projects - The company's capital expenditure increased by 5.9 billion yuan (YoY +7%) to 95.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, mainly due to increased workload in ongoing projects and adjustment wells [1] - The company's 2024 capital expenditure target is 1250-1350 billion yuan, with a YoY growth rate of -4% to +4% [1] - The company's production growth is supported by the contribution of oil and gas fields such as Bozhong 19-6 and Enping 20-4, as well as the production increase from the Payara project in Guyana [1] Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to pay a dividend of 64.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend yield of 5.0% for A-shares and 7.9% for H-shares [1] - The company's dividend payout ratio is expected to be 43% in 2024 [1]

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