| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------------------| | 现金流量表 \n会计年度 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E | 单位:百万元 \n2025E | | 经营活动现金流 | 205,574 | 184,438 | 183,774 | 209,751 | | 现金收益 | 206,217 | 180,561 | 183,940 | 210,246 | | 存货影响 | -536 | -378 | -296 | -437 | | 经营性应收影响 | -9,069 | 4,742 | 2,237 | 229 | | 经营性应付影响 | 10,799 | 3,621 | 2,834 | 4,189 | | 其他影响 | -1,838 | -4,108 | -4,942 | -4,476 | | 投资活动现金流 | -98,473 | -56,324 | -51,683 | -71,148 | | 资本支出 | -68,729 | -56 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·石油及天然气(HS) 中国海洋石油（00883.HK） 发现开平南亿吨级油田，增储上产继续推进 2024 年 03 月 08 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2021A | 2022A | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 237,598 | 389,175 | 406,228 | 424,430 | 445,794 | | 同比 | 56.67% | 63.80% | 4.38% | 4.48% | 5.03% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 70,320 | 141,700 | 127,808 | 139,736 | 149,750 | | 同比 | 181.78% | 101.51% | -9.80% | 9.33% | 7.17% | | EPS- 最新摊薄 ...

公 司 报 告│ 公 司 点 评 研 究 公司勘探方面秉持深化渤海，加快南海战略，2024 年 3 月宣布在南海珠江 口盆地获得开平南亿吨级油田发现。开平南油田平均水深 500 米，经测试 发现井 KP18-1-1d 平均日产原油约 7680 桶，天然气约 0.52 百万立方英尺， 探明油气地质储量 1.02 亿吨油当量，是中国首个深水深层亿吨级油田。 ➢ 渤中 26-6 油田探明储量取得突破，公司增储上产达到新高度 公司 2024 年 2 月在渤海深层油气勘探取得重大发现，渤中 26-6 油田位于 渤海南部海域，按照正常的采收率计算，油田能够开采的原油量超过 3000 万立方米，同时可开采天然气超 110 亿立方米。公司在渤海油田油气合计 净证实储量占公司合计 27.59%，且近 5 年在持续上升。2024 年公司储量替 代率目标不低于 130%，维持较高储量替代率支持公司产量持续增长。 考虑到上游海上资本支出持续增长，公司持续加大资本开支，坚持增储上 产，我们上调了公司盈利预期。我们预计公司 2023-2025 年营业收入分别 为 4046.84/4182.28/4384.51 亿元，同比增速分别为-4. ...

公司研究 要点 点评： 南海油田国内储量占比达 44%，深水勘探开发助力公司产储量增长。根据公司 2022 年报，南海西部和东部油田拥有净证实储量 1584.8 百万桶油当量，占公司 净证实储量的 25.4%，国内净证实储量的 44.1%。2023 年前三季度，南海西部 和东部油田合计净产量为 160.7 百万桶油当量，占公司净产量的 32.2%，国内 净产量的 46.5%。近年来，公司全面加大深水勘探开发力度，大力加强科研攻 关，逐步发现渤中 26-6 亿吨级深层油田、宝岛 21-1 深水深层气田等规模油气。 公司即将于 2024 年投产的深海一号二期天然气开发项目位于南海北部海域，是 我国首个深水高温高压项目，深水勘探开发将持续助力公司产储量增长。 盈利预测、估值与评级：南海再获重大发现，公司"增储上产"有望再上新台阶。 公司将加大勘探开发资本开支投入，油气产量保持高速增长，坚持高股息政策， 在油价维持中高位的背景下，公司高盈利+高分红价值凸显。我们维持对公司的 盈利预测，预计公司 2023-2025 年归母净利润分别为 1354/1391/1453 亿元， 折合 EPS 分别为 2.85/2.92/3. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3][7]. Core Views - CNOOC announced the discovery of the Kai Ping South oil field in the South China Sea, which is the largest deep-water oil field discovered in China to date, with geological reserves of 102 million tons of oil equivalent [4][5]. - The company has a strong focus on offshore oil and gas exploration, with significant capital expenditure in this area, and is well-positioned to benefit from the global offshore oil and gas resource richness [5][11]. - CNOOC's management is efficient, and the company has a strong focus on upstream business profitability, with free cash flow growth expected to outpace profit growth [14]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The Kai Ping South oil field is located in the Pearl River Mouth Basin, approximately 300 kilometers southwest of Shenzhen, with a maximum water depth of 532 meters and a maximum well depth of 4,831 meters. The discovery well encountered a 100.6-meter oil and gas layer, with an average daily production exceeding 1,000 tons [4][10]. Market Potential - According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), global offshore oil and gas resources account for over 30% of total resources, with an estimated 160 billion barrels of oil and 58 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In 2022, global offshore exploration investment reached $48.3 billion, with CNOOC accounting for 5.9% of total exploration investment and 11.6% of offshore exploration investment [5][11]. Operational Efficiency - CNOOC has been operating in partnership with global oil and gas giants since the 1980s, benefiting from advancements in domestic equipment manufacturing and new offshore exploration technologies, leading to reduced oil production costs [14]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for CNOOC's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023-2025 is 134.9 billion, 154.5 billion, and 178.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.84, 3.25, and 3.75 yuan, and PE ratios of 9.9, 8.6, and 7.5 times [7][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company discovered a significant oil field in the South China Sea, with an average oil production of approximately 7,680 barrels per day and gas production of about 0.52 million cubic feet [3] - The company has raised its production targets for 2024-2025 and disclosed its 2026 production goals, with a net production target of 700-720 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7% to 6.7% [3] - Capital expenditures are set to increase, with a total budget of RMB 125-135 billion for 2024, and the company has adjusted its 2023 capital expenditure to approximately RMB 128 billion, aligning with its goals [3] - The company is progressing with several new projects, including significant developments in both domestic and international locations [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 406.23 billion in 2023 to RMB 445.79 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.03% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease to RMB 127.81 billion in 2023, followed by increases to RMB 139.74 billion in 2024 and RMB 149.75 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 7.17% respectively [2][4] Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be RMB 2.69 in 2023, RMB 2.94 in 2024, and RMB 3.15 in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.07, 5.55, and 5.18 [2][4] Shareholder Returns - The company aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% from 2022 to 2024, with an absolute dividend value of no less than HKD 0.70 per share [4]

今日市场总体探底回升，三大指数集体收涨。两市成交额连续4日突破万亿，北向资金净卖出逾70亿 元。值得关注的事，A股连续放量之际，市场显现一大变化：大盘价值、大盘成长两种风格“共存”了。 前者主要指的是高股息资产，今日“三桶油”齐涨，中国海油上涨7.32%，股价创历史新高，煤炭、电力 等板块表现活跃。 后者指的是科技股中的大市值个股，AI继续爆发，不断推升市场风险偏好，液冷服务器、AI手机、光 模块等板块大涨。其中，中际旭创盘中股价创历史新高，工业富联涨停。消息面上，鸿海出货给苹果的 AI服务器已在测试阶段，随着苹果瞄准AI应用，鸿海有机会扩大出货。 近期算力行业利好频出，国家数据局等部门研究建立专用于国家枢纽节点间的公共传输通道，有效提 升“东数西算”网络传输效能。国盛证券指出，国产算力逐步加速，配套“卖水者”需求景气度随之提升， 在目前较为明晰的受益环节包含算力调优、液冷散热、国产交换机等领域，均有望伴随国内智算中心建 设加速，而进一步拓展未来业绩增长空间。 另外，CRO板块全天活跃，龙头药明康德一度触及涨停，据券商中国消息，拜登上周签署了一项行政 命令，可能会限制基因公司在美国的活动，但同时减轻美国国会民 ...

➢ 委内瑞拉：2023 年 10 月，美国财政部海外资产控制办公室宣布解除 对委内瑞拉部分能源贸易制裁，授权开放涉及委内瑞拉石油和天然气 的行业交易（为期 6 个月）。同年 11 月，委国家石油公司副总裁表示， 在美国部分解除制裁后，该国原油日产量现已提升至约 85 万桶的水平， 委政府正考虑将产量进一步提升至 100 万桶/日。然而受自身产能瓶颈 以及当地发展落后等因素制约，后续出现大幅增量的可能性较小。 图表 21：2019 年以来委内瑞拉原油产量变化 来源：Wind、中泰证券研究所（注：阴影区域表示 2019 年以来委内瑞拉原油产量区间） 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 13 - 公司深度报告 （二）美国页岩油增量边际减弱，南美海上油田或贡献增量 ◼ 1）美国产量惯性增长，但边际增速或放缓。 ➢ 2023 年超预期增长：尽管 2023 年美国上游油气企业资本开支表现较 弱，但源于库存井的释放以及钻机使用效率的提升，全年原油产量表 现强势。根据 EIA，2023 年美国原油产量自 7 月底起实现快速增长， 到年底最高达 1330 万桶/日，连续 9 个月超越公共卫生事件前原油产 量水平，并创下近五年 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has made significant discoveries in the Bohai Sea, with the Bohai Zhong 26-6 oilfield becoming the largest metamorphic rock oilfield globally, with proven geological reserves exceeding 40 million cubic meters [3]. - The company has raised its production targets for 2024-2025, with a net production target of 700-720 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% to 6.7% [3]. - Capital expenditures are set to increase, with a total budget of RMB 125-135 billion for 2024, focusing on exploration, development, and production [3]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% from 2022 to 2024, with an absolute dividend value of no less than HKD 0.70 per share [4]. - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit of RMB 127.8 billion, RMB 139.7 billion, and RMB 149.8 billion for 2023-2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 5.3, 4.9, and 4.6 [4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 406.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.38% [2]. - The company's net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 127.8 billion, reflecting a decrease of 9.8% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company’s capital expenditures for 2023 have been adjusted to approximately RMB 128 billion, aligning with its targets [3]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach RMB 1,195.5 billion by 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 36.80% [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target price of 24.99 CNY, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [12][11]. Core Insights - CNOOC has made a significant breakthrough in oil and gas exploration with the discovery of the Bohai Zhong 26-6 oil field, which has achieved a new testing capacity high and added over 40 million cubic meters of proven geological reserves, pushing the total reserves of this oil field to over 200 million cubic meters, making it the largest metamorphic rock oil field globally [3][4]. - The company is committed to increasing domestic oil and gas reserves and production through its "Seven-Year Action Plan," focusing on innovative exploration and addressing challenges in oil and gas exploration [5][8]. - CNOOC's oil and gas production is expected to maintain strong growth in 2024 and 2025, with net profits projected at 1354 billion CNY, 1391 billion CNY, and 1453 billion CNY for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, translating to EPS of 2.85 CNY, 2.92 CNY, and 3.06 CNY [8][19]. Summary by Sections Exploration and Production - The Bohai oil field accounts for 66% of domestic reserves, and CNOOC is enhancing exploration efforts to support production growth [5]. - The company plans to increase capital expenditures for exploration and development, with a budget of 1250-1350 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase [16][27]. Financial Performance - CNOOC's revenue is projected to grow from 4073 billion CNY in 2023 to 4383 billion CNY in 2025, with a slight decrease in growth rate expected in 2023 [19]. - The net profit is expected to show a gradual increase, with a forecasted growth rate of 2.71% in 2024 and 4.50% in 2025 [19]. Market Position - CNOOC's strategy includes focusing on finding large and medium-sized oil and gas fields, with a target reserve replacement rate of no less than 130% for 2024 [27]. - The company aims to maintain a high dividend policy while achieving high profitability in a stable oil price environment [8].