里昂发布研报称，维持中国海洋石油(00883)"跑赢大市"评级，但基于对2025及2026财年布伦特原油价 格预测维持75美元/桶及70美元/桶(长期锚定价70美元/桶)的预测不变，将H股目标价从23.1港元下调至 22.4港元;中国海油（600938）(600938.SH)A股目标价由32.4元人民币下调至31.4元人民币，在H股目标 价基础上叠加50%的A-H溢价得出。 里昂指尽管面临油价波动，中海油展现穿越周期高股息兑现能力，在全球油气舞台上继续以世界级的执 行力稳步前行。其2025年中期业绩显示，多数营运指标均符合全年目标，在市场当前宏观不确定性的背 景下实属不易。另一亮点是中海油将派息比率同比提升5个百分点，使每股派息维持同比持平，释出管 理层愿意运用自由现金流提升股东回报的信号。 ...

中金公司研报指出，中国海油上半年收入2076亿元，同比-8%；归母净利润695.3亿元，对应每股盈利 1.5元，同比-13%，2Q25营业收入1008亿元，同比-12.6%，归母净利润330亿元，盈利略超市场预期， 主要是产量较高所致。大项目提前投产，全年产量较为乐观，同时海外高质量区块投产，判断圭亚那项 目的上产或保证公司的低成本高回报。认为公司成本曲线处于全球较为领先地位。此外，公司派息率再 度提升，维持高股东回报。维持AH股"跑赢行业"评级，以及目标价30元、22.8港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with the China Petrochemical Industry Index showing a slight decline, while the petrochemical ETF has demonstrated significant annual growth and high tracking accuracy [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of August 28, 2025, the China Petrochemical Industry Index has decreased by 0.1% [1]. - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has dropped by 0.39%, with the latest price at 0.77 yuan [1]. - Over the past year, the petrochemical ETF has seen a net value increase of 20.37% [1]. Group 2: ETF Performance Metrics - The highest single-month return for the petrochemical ETF since inception was 15.86%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being three months and a maximum increase of 19.49% [1]. - The average monthly return during the rising months is 5.30% [1]. - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 8.15% over the last three months [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Since 2024, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the industry has noticeably slowed, leading to marginal improvements on the supply side [1]. - China's global market share in chemical products is steadily increasing, indicating a potential new cycle for the chemical industry [1]. - Short-term overseas demand may face challenges, but there is optimism for domestic demand and supply dynamics to improve, particularly for related industry targets [1]. - In the medium to long term, the chemical sector is expected to restart a new cycle against a backdrop of low oil prices and global recovery [1]. Group 4: Top Holdings in the Index - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Petrochemical Industry Index account for 56.18% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical [2]. - The top three stocks by weight are Wanhua Chemical (10.04%), China Petroleum (9.51%), and China Petrochemical (8.07%) [4].

半年盘点｜国际原油价跌致"三桶油"上半年减利超290亿元，跌幅不一为什么 作者：郭霁莹 上半年国际油价震荡下行态势波及了国内石油公司利润。 随着8月27日晚间中国海油(600938.SH)披露半年报，"三桶油"上半年业绩已披露完毕。中国石油 (601857.SH)、中国石化(600028.SH)、中国海油分别实现归母净利润840.1亿元、214.8亿元、695.3亿 元，同比下跌5.4%、39.8%、13%，总共共比去年同期减少了290.5亿元，相当于每天少赚近1.6亿元。 上半年，国内化工品新增产能持续释放，大部分产品价格下降，化工业务毛利空间收窄，中国石油、中 国石化相关收益均出现下滑。中国石油上半年化工业务实现经营利润13.92亿元，同比下滑55.5%；中国 石化化工事业部经营收益亏损额进一步扩大了33.5%至42.24亿元。 同期，"三桶油"营业收入亦都出现5%-11%不等的跌幅，其中，中国石油更是出现近五年来营收、净利 润双下滑的罕见情况。 石油业务是"三桶油"最主要收入来源。正因如此，三家公司均在年报中着重提及国际油价震荡下跌对公 司业绩的影响。今年上半年，全球石油市场供需宽松，布伦特(Brent ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 25.47 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has experienced rapid growth in oil and gas production, with a net production of 385 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [2]. - Despite a decline in oil prices, the company has managed to maintain a relatively smaller decrease in net profit due to effective cost control measures [1][3]. - The company has a strong dividend payout ratio of 45.6%, with a projected dividend yield of 2.6% for A-shares and 3.9% for H-shares [4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 207.61 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.53 billion CNY, down 12.8% year-on-year [1]. - The Brent crude oil price averaged 69.15 USD per barrel in the first half of 2025, a decline of 13.9% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s cost control measures have led to a decrease in per barrel costs, with operating expenses at 6.76 USD per barrel, down 0.7% year-on-year [3]. Production and Exploration - The company achieved a net oil production of 296 million barrels, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, and natural gas production of 516.3 billion cubic feet, up 12.0% year-on-year [2]. - The company has made five new discoveries in domestic exploration and signed multiple contracts for overseas exploration, including a contract in Kazakhstan and two in Indonesia [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 122.19 billion CNY, 126.39 billion CNY, and 130.20 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.57 CNY, 2.66 CNY, and 2.74 CNY for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 10, and 9 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company achieved record oil and gas production in H1 2025, demonstrating resilience in profitability during periods of oil price volatility [5][11]. - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year, the company has shown strong cash flow performance and maintained a prudent financial policy [5][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 207.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.5 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [4]. - The Q2 2025 results showed a total revenue of 100.8 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 33.0 billion yuan, down 17.6% year-on-year [4]. Production and Operational Highlights - The company achieved a net production of 385 million barrels of oil equivalent in H1 2025, marking a 6.1% increase year-on-year, setting a historical high for the same period [6]. - Natural gas production increased by 12.0% year-on-year, with significant contributions from new gas field projects [6]. Cost Management - The average cost per barrel of oil equivalent decreased by 0.81 USD to 26.94 USD, reflecting effective cost control measures [8]. - The company continues to strengthen its cost competitiveness, with a focus on maintaining a cost-leading strategy during periods of oil price fluctuations [8]. Dividend Policy - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a mid-year dividend payout ratio of 45.9%, reflecting its intent to share development results with shareholders [9]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Strategy - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures, with a budget of 125 to 135 billion yuan for 2025, to support stable production growth [10]. - The production target for 2025 is set at 760 to 780 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a focus on high-quality development and effective production growth [10]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 135.4 billion, 139.8 billion, and 144.3 billion yuan respectively, with expected EPS of 2.85, 2.94, and 3.04 yuan per share [11].

2025.08.28 本文字数：1701，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 郭霁莹 上半年国际油价震荡下行态势波及了国内石油公司利润。 国内成品油达峰现状正给产业链企业带来较大影响。伍德麦肯兹亚太聚酯总监罗靖表示，交通领域作为 能源转型核心战场，中国市场汽油需求已于2023年触及峰值，2030年后下行速度将明显加快；整体油品 需求预计在2028年达峰。 面对新能源对传统能源上下游市场的挤压，"三桶油"均表态要加紧非油业务布局。中国石油称将统筹布 局新能源、新材料等新兴产业，公司上半年风光发电量同比大增七成达36.9亿千瓦，新材料产量166.5万 吨，同比增超五成。中国海油则立志扩大绿电使用规模，上半年共消纳绿电超5亿千瓦时；同时开创"以 碳驱油、以油固碳"的海洋能源循环利用新模式，中国海上首个CCUS项目上半年在恩平15-1平台投用。 石油业务是"三桶油"最主要收入来源。正因如此，三家公司均在年报中着重提及国际油价震荡下跌对公 司业绩的影响。今年上半年，全球石油市场供需宽松，布伦特（Brent）原油现货均价同比跌幅在15% 左右。 因此，中国石油上半年原油平均售价66.21美元/桶，同比下滑14.5%；中 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][23] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient profitability with a net profit of 33 billion yuan in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations despite a 15.1% decline in Brent oil prices [1][9] - The company achieved a record high in oil and gas net production, with a total of 384.6 million barrels of oil equivalent in H1 2025, reflecting a 6.1% year-on-year increase [2][12] - The average realized price for oil liquids was 69.2 USD/barrel in H1 2025, down 13.9% year-on-year, while the average gas price was 7.90 USD/thousand cubic feet, up 1.4% year-on-year [16][12] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 207.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 69.53 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [1][9] - The company's oil and gas sales revenue for H1 2025 was 171.75 billion yuan, a decline of 7.2% year-on-year [2][12] - The average cost per barrel of oil equivalent was 26.94 USD, a decrease of 0.81 USD year-on-year [16][12] Capital Expenditure and Dividends - The company completed capital expenditures of 57.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 5.5 billion yuan year-on-year, with an expected total capital expenditure for 2025 of 125-135 billion yuan [3][18] - The interim dividend for 2025 is set at 0.73 HKD per share, reflecting the company's commitment to sharing growth with shareholders [3][18] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company is maintained, with expected net profits of 126.3 billion yuan, 129.7 billion yuan, and 135 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in Hong Kong oil stocks, particularly China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), which saw an increase of over 3% following its earnings report [1] - CNOOC reported a revenue of 171.7 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, achieving a record high net production of 384.6 million barrels of oil equivalent [1] - The article notes that the three major state-owned oil and gas companies in China, referred to as the "Big Three," experienced declines in both revenue and net profit in the first half of the year due to falling international oil prices, with a combined net profit of 175.023 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The executive director and president of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Huang Yongzhang, indicated that the current geopolitical tensions and the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts next month could support international oil prices [1] - CNPC forecasts that international oil prices will fluctuate around $70 per barrel in the third quarter, while the market may have already priced in the potential production increase from OPEC+ [1] - The article provides stock performance data for several companies, including CNOOC, CNOOC Oilfield Services, Kunlun Energy, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, with respective price changes noted [1]

Core Viewpoint - CNOOC's stock rose over 3% following the release of its mid-year results for 2025, indicating market optimism despite a decline in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - Oil and gas sales revenue was approximately 171.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [1] - Total revenue was about 207.6 billion yuan, down 8.45% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was around 69.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 13% decline year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 1.46 yuan, with an interim dividend of 0.73 Hong Kong dollars per share [1] Exploration and Production - The company is actively advancing its reserve replacement and production increase strategies, achieving significant oil and gas exploration results [1] - New discoveries in China's offshore areas include five oil and gas finds, such as the Jinzhu 27-6 [1] - Successful evaluation of large and medium-sized oil and gas structures, including Qinhuangdao 29-6, has been reported [1] - Onshore unconventional natural gas reserves are steadily increasing [1] - CNOOC has signed its first oil contract for exploration in a new block in Kazakhstan, expanding its overseas exploration potential [1] Production Metrics - In the first half of the year, the company's net production reached 384.6 million barrels of oil equivalent [1] - Natural gas production saw a significant increase of 12.0% [1] - Both domestic and international production exceeded historical levels for the same period [1]