花旗预计银行季内盈利将实现年增16%(意味着去年全年盈利增长5%，比市场共识预测高约1%)，原因 是贷款增长强劲及净息差稳固所支持。另外，花旗预计重农行今年营收、盈利增长将加速至年增5%、 10%，主要由企业贷款增长强劲; 净息差稳定; 银行保险更强、财富管理及贵金属相关手续费收入，有关 收入预计同比倍增等因素带动。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，予重庆农村商业银行(03618)目标价7.53港元，维持"买入"评级， 将重庆农村商业银行纳入90日正面催化剂观察名单，相信其即将公布的2025年第四季度业绩(料3月25日 公布)很可能胜市场预测。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector continues to show strong performance, with significant gains in individual bank stocks and a notable increase in the banking ETF, indicating a potential market style shift towards large-cap and quality stocks [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 5, the banking sector saw collective gains, with Xiamen Bank hitting a trading limit and reaching its highest price since June 2021 [1]. - Major banks such as Chongqing Bank and Shanghai Bank also experienced significant increases, with gains of nearly 6% and over 4% respectively [1]. - The largest banking ETF (512800) opened high and further surged, closing up 1.67% with a trading volume of 1.071 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase in market activity [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Style Shift - There was a rapid influx of main funds into the banking sector, with a net inflow of 5.502 billion yuan, ranking second among all Shenwan first-level industries [3]. - Institutions suggest that the current strength in the banking sector may indicate a style shift in the market, moving from small-cap to large-cap stocks and from thematic to quality investments [3]. - Historical data shows that the banking sector has a high success rate before the Spring Festival, with an 80% win rate for absolute and excess returns over the past decade [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Banks - As of the 2025 reporting season, 10 listed banks that have disclosed performance reports achieved positive growth in net profit, with 9 of them reporting both revenue and net profit increases [5]. - Despite a challenging environment characterized by declining interest rates and narrowing interest margins, the banking sector is demonstrating stable growth, providing fundamental support for valuation recovery [5]. - The banking ETF (512800) and its linked funds are effective investment tools tracking the overall performance of the banking sector, with the ETF's latest scale exceeding 12.2 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume of over 800 million yuan since 2025 [5].

Group 1: Qilu Bank - Qilu Bank announced a board resolution on February 4, approving the appointment of current president Zhang Hua as Chief Compliance Officer, with a term ending on August 10, 2026 [1][6] - Zhang Hua, born in June 1966, holds a bachelor's and master's degree, and has extensive practical experience in banking, having risen through the ranks at Qilu Bank [1][6] - His career includes key positions such as branch manager and head of credit management, as well as experience in local government financial oversight, enhancing his compliance management expertise [1][6] Group 2: Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank - On January 29, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank's board approved the appointment of president Sui Jun as Chief Compliance Officer, with unanimous support from the board [2][7] - Sui Jun, born in December 1968, is a member of the Communist Party and holds a doctoral degree in economics, with a rich background in banking [2][7] - His previous roles include various leadership positions in both Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and China Construction Bank, showcasing his extensive experience in the financial sector [2][7] Group 3: Xiamen Bank - Xiamen Bank announced on January 28 that its board approved the appointment of assistant president and Chief Risk Officer Chen Song as Chief Compliance Officer, pending regulatory approval [3][8] - Chen Song, born in May 1974, has a strong background in risk management and compliance, having held various positions in banking [3][8] - His experience includes roles at Industrial Bank and Ping An Bank, contributing to his qualifications in risk control and compliance management [3][8] Group 4: Pudong Development Bank - On January 24, Pudong Development Bank's board approved the appointment of Cui Bingwen as Chief Risk Officer, Chief Compliance Officer, and General Counsel, with a term aligned with the current board [4][8] - Cui Bingwen, born in 1969, holds a doctoral degree and has extensive banking experience, having served in various leadership roles [4][8] - His career includes significant positions at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Pudong Development Bank, enhancing his expertise in legal and compliance matters [4][8]

A股市场超3700股飘绿，有色板块跌幅居前，白银有色、湖南白银跌停，四川黄金逼近跌停；煤 炭、石油、电力等板块集体走低；光伏产业链股集体下挫，捷佳伟创、迈为股份跌超10%，钧达 股份等跌停；银行板块逆市上扬，厦门银行午后涨停，重庆银行涨近6%；影视股集体走高，幸福 蓝海涨超11%，横店影视、金逸影视涨停；零售板块午后崛起，茂业商业、三江购物尾盘异动， 直线拉升涨停；食品饮料股拉升，海欣食品、安记食品涨停。值得注意的是，民爆光电连续4日 涨停续创历史新高。 A股今日(2月5日）整体疲弱，沪指盘中跌超1%，创业板指一度跌超2%；港股尾盘止跌回升， 恒生指数翻红，恒生科技指数一度涨近1%。 具体来看，两市主要股指盘中弱势下探，沪指一度跌超1%，尾盘跌幅有所收窄。截至收盘，沪指 跌0.64%报4075.92点，深证成指跌1.44%，创业板指跌1.55%，北证50指数跌逾2%，沪深北三市合 计成交约2.19万亿元，较此前一日减少逾3000亿元。 港股方面，百胜中国、东方甄选涨超10%，海底捞涨约4%；紫金矿业跌近5%。 银行板块拉升 银行板块今日逆市拉升，截至收盘，厦门银行涨停，重庆银行涨近6%，上海银行涨逾4%，南京 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector experienced a collective rise, with all 42 stocks showing positive performance, particularly among small and medium-sized banks [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The banking sector index rebounded from a low of 6627.36 points on January 29 to close at 6904.39 points, indicating a clear recovery trend [1] - Qingdao Bank led the sector with a 23.88% increase, followed by Ningbo Bank at 15.81%, and several other banks showing gains exceeding 8% [1] Group 2: Factors Driving the Rise - Multiple factors contributed to the rise in bank stocks, including positive earnings forecasts for 2025, stable revenue and net profit growth, and improving asset quality [2] - The banking sector is expected to continue the "early investment, early returns" strategy in 2026, with projected new credit accounting for 62%-65% of the annual total in the first quarter [2] - A shift in market sentiment from growth to value has led to a flow of funds back into undervalued banking stocks, which are seen as defensive investments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector experienced significant gains on February 5, with multiple banks reaching new highs and notable percentage increases in their stock prices [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiamen Bank's stock price reached 7.93, marking a 9.99% increase, the highest since June 2021 [2]. - Chongqing Bank's stock rose to 11.00, reflecting a 6.80% increase [2]. - Shanghai Bank and Nanjing Bank saw increases of over 4%, with prices at 9.78 and 11.23 respectively [2]. - Other banks such as Yuzhong Rural Commercial Bank and Ningbo Bank also experienced gains, with increases of 3.62% and 3.25% respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen significant gains in bank stocks, with notable increases in share prices for several banks, indicating positive market sentiment towards the banking sector [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiamen Bank experienced a maximum increase of 9.99%, reaching a total market capitalization of 20.9 billion [2]. - Chongqing Bank rose by 7.18%, with a market value of 38.4 billion [2]. - Shanghai Bank's shares increased by 4.38%, bringing its market capitalization to 139 billion [2]. - Nanjing Bank saw a rise of 3.90%, with a total market value of 138.5 billion [2]. - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank increased by 3.31%, with a market capitalization of 74.5 billion [2]. - Ningbo Bank's shares rose by 3.25%, reaching a market value of 216.1 billion [2]. - Qilu Bank increased by 2.95%, with a market capitalization of 36.5 billion [2]. - Hangzhou Bank's shares rose by 2.91%, bringing its market value to 120.4 billion [2]. - Jiangsu Bank saw an increase of 2.36%, with a total market capitalization of 191.2 billion [2]. - Changsha Bank's shares rose by 2.38%, with a market value of 39.8 billion [2]. - Zhangjiagang Bank increased by 2.19%, reaching a market capitalization of 1.14 billion [2]. - Chengdu Bank's shares rose by 2.05%, with a total market value of 69.5 billion [2]. Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - Xiamen Bank has a year-to-date increase of 8.04% [2]. - Chongqing Bank's year-to-date performance is up by 3.56% [2]. - Shanghai Bank has seen a year-to-date decline of 3.17% [2]. - Nanjing Bank's year-to-date performance is down by 2.01% [2]. - Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank has a year-to-date increase of 4.89% [2]. - Ningbo Bank has the highest year-to-date increase at 16.52% [2]. - Qilu Bank's year-to-date performance is up by 3.31% [2]. - Hangzhou Bank has a year-to-date increase of 8.70% [2]. - Jiangsu Bank's year-to-date performance is up by 3.41% [2]. - Changsha Bank has a year-to-date increase of 2.06% [2]. - Zhangjiagang Bank's year-to-date performance is up by 1.97% [2]. - Chengdu Bank has a year-to-date increase of 1.67% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for banks showed a contrary upward trend, with several banks experiencing significant gains on February 5, 2023, despite broader market conditions [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiamen Bank saw an increase of 6.38%, with a total market capitalization of 20.2 billion [2] - Chongqing Bank rose by 4.17%, with a market cap of 37.3 billion [2] - Ningbo Bank increased by 3.31%, with a market value of 216.3 billion [2] - Shanghai Bank also rose by 3.31%, with a market cap of 137.5 billion [2] - Nanjing Bank increased by 2.97%, with a market capitalization of 137.2 billion [2] - Qilu Bank rose by 2.78%, with a market cap of 36.4 billion [2] - Hangzhou Bank increased by 2.54%, with a market value of 120 billion [2] - Yuhuang Agricultural Commercial Bank rose by 2.36%, with a market cap of 73.8 billion [2] - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank increased by 2.28%, with a market value of 82.4 billion [2] - Jiangsu Bank rose by 2.06%, with a market cap of 190.7 billion [2] Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - Ningbo Bank has the highest year-to-date increase at 16.59% [2] - Xiamen Bank has a year-to-date increase of 4.50% [2] - Qilu Bank shows a year-to-date increase of 3.14% [2] - Hangzhou Bank has a year-to-date increase of 8.31% [2] - Jiangsu Bank shows a year-to-date increase of 3.11% [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a rise in bank stocks, with Xiamen Bank increasing by over 6% [1] - Chongqing Bank rose by more than 4% [1] - Ningbo Bank and Shanghai Bank both increased by over 3% [1] - Nanjing Bank, Qilu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Yucheng Rural Commercial Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, and Jiangsu Bank all saw increases of over 2% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026 [5] Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to return to fundamental narratives in 2026, supported by policy financial tools and resilient asset expansion. The sector is still in a deposit repricing cycle, which is likely to stabilize net interest margins. Structural risks are anticipated to be supported by policy measures [3][32] - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with confirmed fundamentals, including Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy) 2. State-owned large banks with stable fundamentals and good defensive value, including Bank of Communications (601328, Not Rated) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) [3][32] Summary by Sections Impact of Corporate Foreign Exchange Settlement on Interbank Liquidity - Corporate foreign exchange settlement has increased due to the continuous appreciation of the RMB, with a record high of USD 99.9 billion in December 2025. The strong RMB trend is expected to maintain high settlement levels throughout 2026 [8][11] - The settlement process involves two stages: 1. Corporates settle with commercial banks, leading to a decrease in foreign currency deposits and a corresponding decrease in excess reserves. This results in an increase in RMB deposits and a need for banks to match more statutory reserves, which may reduce excess reserves [10][13] 2. If commercial banks settle with the central bank, it results in a decrease in foreign currency assets and an increase in excess reserves, thereby injecting liquidity into the market [10][13] Current Liquidity Conditions - Current liquidity is relatively loose, supported by the central bank's clear stance on maintaining liquidity and stable growth in deposits. Concerns about deposit disintermediation have not materialized, and the overall disintermediation pressure remains moderate [26][32] - The central bank has net injected CNY 1 trillion in medium- and long-term funds through various operations, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [15][32]