Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and potentially exceeding the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Key Market Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY from the previous week [3][20] - The report notes a decrease in the production rate of coal mines, with the operating rate for 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 82.7% [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][15] Company Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - Major coal companies showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [24][26]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, closing up 0.85% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.21% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.4% [1] - The coal energy sector performed exceptionally well, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Meijin Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [1][2] - The coal mining and processing sector saw an overall increase of 7.92%, with several stocks achieving limit up, indicating strong market interest and performance [2] Group 2 - Recent cold weather has increased energy demand for heating, prompting local governments to enhance energy supply measures, which supports coal production and supply stability [3] - Analysts are optimistic about coal prices stabilizing and rebounding, with expectations of increased demand post-Chinese New Year, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance [3] - The coal ETF has risen over 10% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor interest and net inflows over the past four days [4] Group 3 - International thermal coal prices have significantly increased, with Australian Newcastle coal futures reaching a one-year high, indicating a bullish trend in the market [5] - Forecasts for the coal industry suggest a notable improvement in profitability by 2026, driven by a slowdown in supply growth and recovery in demand [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant reduction in coal production quotas by the Indonesian government, which aims to boost coal prices by decreasing export volumes by 40% to 70% for major miners by 2025 [5] - Additionally, the Indonesian government plans to impose an export surcharge, which may further weaken the profitability of the coal industry [5] Group 2 - The article lists several companies involved in coal mining, coal chemical, and coal-electricity integration, including China Shenhua, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [8][9]

Group 1 - The coal mining sector experienced a decline of 0.19% on February 3, with Haohua Energy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] - Key stocks in the coal mining sector showed varied performance, with Jiangte Equipment rising by 6.93% and China Shenhua falling by 1.52% [2] Group 2 - The coal mining sector saw a net outflow of 400 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 301 million yuan [2] - Major funds showed a mixed trend, with Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industries receiving a net inflow of 42.73 million yuan, while Jiangte Equipment faced a net outflow of 52.98 million yuan [3] - Retail investors favored stocks like SuNeng Co., which had a net inflow of 357.83 million yuan, despite overall sector challenges [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in coal auction listings in Mongolia for 2025, with a total of 40.8832 million tons listed, up by 14.272 million tons. However, the transaction volume is slightly lower than in 2024, at 21.792 million tons, down by 0.576 million tons [2] - The report emphasizes the performance of specific companies, recommending investments in China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. It also highlights companies focusing on smart mining, such as Keda Control, and those undergoing turnaround, like China Qinfa [3][7] - The report notes that the core port for coal transactions remains Ganqimaodu, contributing 83% of the total transaction volume [2] Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up by $4.81 (7.3%) from the previous week. WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up by $4.14 (6.78%) [1] - Natural gas prices showed mixed trends, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.68 per million British thermal units, down by $0.13 (-1.11%). The Dutch TTF gas futures settled at €40.65 per megawatt-hour, up by €1.28 (3.24%) [1] - Coal prices increased, with European ARA port coal prices at $101.50 per ton, up by $3.00 (3.05%), and Newcastle port coal prices at $116.75 per ton, up by $5.25 (4.71%) [1] Auction Performance - The report indicates that ETT led the auction with a transaction of 12.5696 million tons, followed by small TT and ER with 5.3632 million tons and 3.1296 million tons, respectively. The report also notes that coking coal transactions totaled 13.6192 million tons, down by 3.0656 million tons, while thermal coal transactions increased by 3.584 million tons to 8.1728 million tons [6] Key Stocks - The report provides a detailed table of recommended stocks, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.21 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 11.32 - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.56 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 16.38 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) with an EPS forecast of 0.99 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 14.86 [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On January 28, the main contracts 2605 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded after a decline, recovering part of the previous day's losses. The closing price of J2605 was 1684 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%, and the trading volume was 13,284 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1134.5 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44%, and the trading volume was 714,203 lots [5]. - The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coke 2605 contract continued to decline, but the J - value was significantly dull. The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coking coal 2605 contract showed a differentiated trend, with the J - value and K - value turning up and the D - value continuing to decline. The green columns of the MACD of the daily line of coke and coking coal 2605 contracts enlarged for the second consecutive trading day [8]. Group 3: Spot Market - On January 28, the flat - price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1455 yuan/ton, in Lvliang was 1483 yuan/ton, in Linfen was 1640 yuan/ton, in Handan was 1420 yuan/ton, in Heze was 1430 yuan/ton, and in Pingdingshan was 1660 yuan/ton, all with no change [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - News: The regulatory policy tightening led to the decline of metal prices with poor fundamentals. The international energy prices rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East, and the coal - coke prices rebounded after reaching a low [10]. - Fundamentals: Independent coking enterprises have been in continuous losses for 5 weeks, and the loss amplitude has been expanding for 3 weeks. The coke production has decreased slightly for 2 consecutive weeks after increasing in the first 2 weeks of the year. The port coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks, and the steel mill coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early October last year, while the coking enterprise coke inventory has increased after decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has rebounded since January 12, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically remained above 190,000 tons recently. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since the end of January last year, while the coking coal inventory of steel enterprises and ports has been relatively stable [10]. - Forecast: The news has a dual impact on the coal - coke futures prices, but the fundamentals change little, resulting in the relative stability of coal - coke futures. It is expected that the market may first decline and then rise. It is advisable to try the strategy of buying for hedging or investment at low prices after the callback stabilizes [11]. Group 5: Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the total assets of central enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan, with a total profit of 2.5 trillion yuan, fixed - asset investment of 5.1 trillion yuan, and tax payment of 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025. The investment in strategic emerging industries was 2.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.8% of the total investment [12]. - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, 940 million tons of crude steel production capacity, 470 million tons of cement clinker production capacity, 360 million tons of coking production capacity, and 170 million kilowatts of coal - fired power units have completed ultra - low emission transformation [12]. - The number and production capacity of open - pit coal mines in China will continue to increase, and their position in the energy supply system will become more important [12]. - By January 25, Wuhai Energy Company completed 1.2284 million tons of raw coal production and 1.0239 million tons of commercial coal sales, achieving a good start [13]. - Haohua Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 419 million yuan and 569 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 45.08% - 59.55% [13]. - Baofeng Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 11 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 73.57% - 89.34% [13]. - In 2025, the raw coal production of large - scale industrial enterprises in Ningxia was 10.28106 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [13]. - In 2025, Shaanxi added 30.95 million tons/year of coal production capacity, and 10.04 million kilowatts of renewable energy installed capacity [13]. - The iron ore "water - rail intermodal transport" business of Hubei Energy Jingzhou Coal Port was officially launched [13]. - Shanxi is promoting economic development and "major project construction year" work [13]. - Hudong - Zhonghua Shipbuilding signed a contract to build 4 + 2 LNG carriers [14]. - Huaibei Mining expects its net profit in 2025 to be about 1.495 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.21% [14]. - China National Energy Group opened a new coal supply channel to the central - China region [14]. - Northeast Power Grid's power consumption load reached a record high in late December 2025 [14]. - The daily power generation of Datang Huayin Electric Power's thermal power units reached a record high [14]. - Shanxi Coking expects to be profitable in 2025, but its net profit will decline by more than 50% year - on - year [14]. - In 2025, China's effective supply of coking coal was close to 480 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The net import volume of coking coal decreased for the first time since 2021, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4% [14]. - In 2025, the freight volume of the Ganqimaodu Port reached 42.433 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, a record high [14]. - The anti - dumping measures for stainless steel welded pipes originating from China in the Eurasian Economic Union will be extended to November 12, 2026 [14]. - Mongolia plans to produce 90 million tons of coal, 1.9 million tons of copper, and 9.4 million tons of iron ore in 2026 [14]. - India and the EU reached a free - trade agreement on January 27 [14]. - India's coal production target for the 2026 - 27 fiscal year is 1.31 billion tons [15]. - A barge collision accident in Indonesia may affect coal barge transportation [15]. - In 2025, Brazil's Vale's iron ore production reached 336 million tons, a new high since 2018 [15]. - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and oil [15]. - In 2025, South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal's coal export volume increased by 11% year - on - year to 57.66 million tons, a four - year high [15]. - India Oil Corporation plans to purchase at least 24 million barrels of Brazilian crude oil in the next two years [15].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Haohua Energy Co., Ltd. expects a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, primarily due to a sharp drop in coal market prices, despite an increase in coal sales volume [2][8]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 41,929 million yuan and 56,929 million yuan for 2025, representing a decrease of 61,728 million yuan to 46,728 million yuan compared to the previous year, which is a year-on-year decline of 59.55% to 45.08% [2][3]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 39,131 million yuan and 54,131 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 63,504 million yuan to 48,504 million yuan, or a year-on-year decline of 61.87% to 47.26% [2][3]. Group 2: Previous Year’s Performance - In the previous year, the total profit was 202,126 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 103,657 million yuan [5]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the previous year was 102,635 million yuan [6]. - The basic earnings per share for the previous year were 0.72 yuan [7]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The significant decline in the company's performance for 2025 is mainly attributed to the substantial decrease in coal market prices. Although the company managed to increase coal sales volume by 240,000 tons, it was insufficient to offset the impact of falling prices [8]. Group 4: Additional Information - The financial data provided in the performance forecast has not been audited by registered accountants [4]. - The operational data for 2025 indicates a 20.40% year-on-year decline in coal sales prices, which has led to a noticeable decrease in gross profit, despite a slight increase in production and sales volume of self-produced coal [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beijing Haohua Energy Co., Ltd., has announced a significant decline in its expected net profit for the year 2025, primarily due to a substantial drop in coal prices, despite an increase in coal sales volume [5][9]. Group 1: Operating Performance - In 2025, coal sales prices decreased by 20.40% year-on-year, leading to a notable decline in gross profit, despite a slight increase in production and sales volume of self-produced coal [2][9]. - The company's coal sales volume increased by 240,000 tons year-on-year, but this increase was insufficient to offset the impact of falling prices [9]. Group 2: Financial Forecast - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 41.929 million and 56.929 million yuan for 2025, representing a decrease of 61.728 million to 46.728 million yuan compared to the previous year, which is a year-on-year decline of 59.55% to 45.08% [5][7]. - The expected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 39.131 million and 54.131 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 63.504 million to 48.504 million yuan year-on-year, or a decline of 61.87% to 47.26% [6][7]. Group 3: Previous Year Comparison - The basic earnings per share for the previous year was 0.72 yuan [8]. - The total profit for the previous year was reported at 202.126 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company at 103.657 million yuan [13].

Core Viewpoint - Haohua Energy announced an expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the year 2025, ranging from 419.29 million yuan to 569.29 million yuan [2] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is between 419.29 million yuan and 569.29 million yuan [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share coal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with sub-sectors like coking coal and thermal coal rising in tandem, indicating a sustained profit-making effect [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal has hit the daily limit up, becoming the leading stock in the sector, while Lu'an Environmental Energy has increased by over 8%, leading the coking coal sub-sector [1] - Other stocks such as Jinko Coal, Electric Power Energy, Shaanxi Black Cat, and Haohua Energy are also seeing synchronized gains, reflecting a significant increase in market activity [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The coal price is expected to rise by approximately 5-7% in 2026, with improved performance for listed companies anticipated to follow suit [2] - Coal inventory has significantly decreased, with a total of 22.59 million tons reported, marking a week-on-week decline of 2.9% and a year-on-year drop of 20.4%, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [2] - The implementation of stricter safety regulations and continued restrictions on imported coal are expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity, leading to an increase in industry concentration [2] Group 3: Related Industries - The coal chemical industry is expected to benefit from rising coal prices and stable supply, with a projected 6% growth in coal consumption driven by new coal chemical projects [3] - The power industry, particularly thermal power, is seeing a resilient coal demand, with a 3.3% year-on-year increase in coal consumption since the beginning of 2026 [3] - The steel industry is also benefiting from the improved coal sector, with a 1.5% year-on-year increase in pig iron production and a 0.9% week-on-week increase in coking coal sales, highlighting the synergy within the steel-coal supply chain [3]