证券研究报告 社会库存继续下降，期货大涨提振信心 ——煤炭行业周报（8月第4周） 行业评级：看好 2025年8月23日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑输沪深300指数：截止2025年8月22日，中信煤炭行业收涨1.23%，沪深300指数上涨4.18%，跑输沪深300指数2.95个百分点。全板块整周18只股价上涨，16只下跌， 3只持平。安源煤业涨幅最高，整周涨幅为17.26%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2025年8月15日-2025年8月21日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为708万吨，周环比减少1.1%，年同比减少0.7%。其中，动力煤周日均销 量较上周减少0.5%，炼焦煤销量较上周增加1.3%，无烟煤销量较上周减少3.2%。截至2025年8月21日，重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2671万吨，周环比增加2%，年同比减少 0.8%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量161312.8万吨，同比减少2.7%；其中动力煤、焦煤、无烟煤累计销量分别同比-3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal inventory has decreased year-on-year for the first time, indicating a continuous improvement in the fundamentals of the coal industry [1] - The coal sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.77% as of August 15, 2025, while the CSI 300 index rose by 2.37% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [2] - The total coal inventory of key monitored enterprises was 26.18 million tons as of August 14, 2025, a week-on-week decrease of 5.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [2] - The supply-demand balance in the coal market is improving, with significant price increases for thermal coal and potential marginal improvements in the coking coal sector due to environmental factors [6] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of August 15, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 670 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [3] - The average daily sales volume of thermal coal increased by 0.6% week-on-week [2] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,630 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [4] - The inventory of coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased by 5.4% week-on-week [4] Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of methanol in East China was 2,354.55 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 38.86 CNY/ton [5] - The price of urea in Henan was 1,700 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 50 CNY/ton [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround [6] - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company for thermal coal; and Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Lu'an Environmental Energy for coking coal [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is experiencing a supply-demand match, leading to a continuous increase in coal prices. As of August 8, 2025, the spot price of thermal coal at ports rose by 19 CNY/ton to 682 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 79,900 tons week-on-week, a growth of 5.19%. However, the average daily outflow decreased by 258,000 tons, a decline of 13.92%, indicating a stable supply with rising demand due to high temperatures [1][2][28] - The report suggests that the coal industry has entered a peak season due to sustained high temperatures, with continued growth in residential and industrial electricity consumption. It is anticipated that with stable supply and rising demand, coal prices may further increase [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45% to 3635.13 points during the week of August 4 to August 8, 2025. The coal sector index increased by 3.02% to 2699.31 points, with a trading volume of 39.022 billion CNY, down 30.02% from the previous week [10][12] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - As of August 8, 2025, the price of thermal coal in major production areas showed a steady increase. For instance, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong rose by 13 CNY/ton to 585 CNY/ton, while the price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in Yanzhou increased by 20 CNY/ton to 970 CNY/ton [17][22] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 1.6194 million tons, up 5.19% week-on-week, while the outflow was 1.5951 million tons, down 13.92%. The total inventory at the ports decreased by 0.28% to 24.659 million tons [28][32] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the influx of insurance funds and suggests focusing on resource stocks. It recommends specific coal companies such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as potential investment targets due to their low valuations and elasticity [2][37]

Group 1 - The coal sector experienced a day of fluctuating rebounds on August 6, with notable increases in stock prices [1] - Jinko Coal Industry saw a rise of over 7%, while Shanxi Coal International and Shaanxi Coal Industry both increased by over 5% [1] - Other companies such as Huayang Co., Haohua Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and Pingmei Shenma also reported significant gains [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Shenhua plans to acquire group assets, and coal prices are expected to rise in August. Domestic power plants maintain daily coal consumption, leading to continued price increases. The coal association has advocated for controlling production and improving quality, while the Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to environmental factors affecting capacity utilization, with supply and demand gradually balancing in the second half of the year [6][42]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector declined, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.81 percentage points, with a drop of 4.56% as of August 1, 2025. Among 37 stocks, Chengzhi Co. had the smallest decline at 0.89% [2]. - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 6.64 million tons from July 25 to July 31, 2025, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9% but a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The total coal inventory was 28.87 million tons, down 5.5% week-on-week and up 15.1% year-on-year [2]. Price Trends - As of August 1, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 665 CNY/ton, up 0.15% week-on-week. The price of imported thermal coal was 763 CNY/ton, up 0.13% week-on-week. Prices at various ports, including Qinhuangdao and Huanghua, also saw increases [3]. - For coking coal, the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was stable at 1,650 CNY/ton, while prices for metallurgical coke increased by 3.4% for first-grade and 3.94% for second-grade [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 146.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. Power and chemical industries saw coal consumption changes of -2.7% and +16.9% respectively [2][41]. - The chemical industry’s total coal consumption was reported at 21.39 million tons as of August 1, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and turnaround coking coal companies. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company for thermal coal, and Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that coal prices are on the rise due to inventory depletion and increased demand driven by high temperatures, suggesting a potential for further price increases [1]. - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim decreased by 14.26% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow increased by 4.88%, indicating a tightening supply situation [1][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests that resource stocks, particularly in the coal sector, are likely to be favored due to ongoing solid premium income growth [2][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.06% during the week, while the coal sector index decreased by 2.13% [10]. - The average daily coal price at Qinhuangdao port rose by 10 CNY/ton to 663 CNY/ton [1][16]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 1.5396 million tons, down 25.61 tons week-on-week, while daily outflow was 1.8531 million tons, up 8.61 tons [25][28]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 8.22% to 24.727 million tons [28]. 3. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong increased by 32 CNY/ton to 572 CNY/ton, while the price of 6000 kcal coal in Yanzhou rose by 20 CNY/ton to 950 CNY/ton [16]. - The coal price index for the Bohai Rim region increased by 1 CNY/ton to 665 CNY/ton [18]. 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on elastic coal stocks, particularly Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, which are considered undervalued [2][33].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with the central price level continuing to rise. Domestic power plants have increased daily coal consumption, leading to further price increases for both coking coal and thermal coal. The report emphasizes that the industry is supported by both policy and fundamental factors, maintaining a "Positive" rating for the coal sector [6][41]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 8% compared to a 1.69% rise in the index, resulting in a 6.31 percentage point outperformance. A total of 37 stocks in the sector saw price increases, with Lu'an Huanneng showing the highest weekly gain of 31.22% [2]. Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from July 18 to July 24, 2025, were 7.14 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.4% but a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 30.55 million tons, down 2.3% week-on-week but up 20.5% year-on-year [2][8]. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of July 25, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 664 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.85 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [3]. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,650 CNY/ton, up 16.2% week-on-week. The inventory at Jingtang Port decreased by 11.16% week-on-week, while the total inventory at independent coking plants increased by 56.27% [4]. Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of Yanquan anthracite coal remained stable at 820 CNY/ton. The methanol market price in East China rose to 2,476.14 CNY/ton, an increase of 100.91 CNY/ton week-on-week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Huainan Mining for thermal coal, and Huai Bei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][41].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is expected to benefit from a new round of anti-involution and capacity reduction measures initiated by the National Energy Administration, aimed at stabilizing coal supply and optimizing industry order [2][3][9]. Group 1: Policy Announcement - The National Energy Administration issued a notification on July 10, 2025, regarding the organization of coal mine production situation checks to promote stable and orderly coal supply [2][5]. - The notification indicates that the coal supply-demand situation has been generally loose this year, with prices continuously declining, leading some coal enterprises to produce beyond their announced capacity, disrupting market order [3][4]. Group 2: Inspection Scope and Requirements - The inspection will cover coal mines in eight provinces, including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Anhui, focusing on whether the annual coal output exceeds announced capacity and if production plans are reasonable [5][6]. - Violations will be categorized and dealt with according to the nature and severity, with corrective actions mandated for companies exceeding production limits [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Investment Outlook - Following the announcement, the coal sector saw a significant increase, with a rise of over 6% on July 22, 2025, although it experienced a slight decline the following day [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the anti-involution measures will help stabilize supply-demand relationships and optimize industry order, with high-quality coal companies still showing strong attributes such as high barriers to entry and cash flow [2][9]. - The current proportion of loss-making companies in the coal industry stands at 53.6%, significantly higher than 35% in 2016, indicating a pressing need for the anti-involution actions to restore profitability [9][11]. Group 4: Price Trends and Future Expectations - As of July 21, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 642 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12 RMB/ton, and a rebound of 27 RMB/ton from the yearly low [10]. - Analysts predict that with improved demand and more rational supply releases, coal prices are expected to rise further, creating a safer and more sustainable development environment for the industry [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, with major coal companies' stock prices hitting the limit up, driven by anticipated regulatory changes and a potential shift in supply-demand dynamics [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 22, the Shenwan Hongyuan Coal Index surged by 6.18%, with companies like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huahua Energy reaching their daily price limits [4]. - In the futures market, the main contracts for coking coal and coke also hit the limit up, with increases of 7.98% [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The National Energy Administration plans to conduct coal mine production inspections in key coal-producing provinces to ensure compliance with production capacities [5][6]. - The inspection will cover eight provinces, including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, focusing on whether coal production exceeds announced capacities [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The coal industry is expected to undergo a "de-involution" process, with a focus on stabilizing supply and addressing the imbalance in supply-demand dynamics [6][7]. - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association has emphasized the need for coal companies to adhere to long-term contracts and improve production quality [6]. Group 4: Price Recovery and Demand - There are signs of a price recovery for coal and other resource products, with the China Electric Coal Procurement Price Index showing recent price increases [8][9]. - The market is experiencing a "high-temperature-driven demand release," leading to accelerated coal transportation and inventory reduction [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the coal supply-demand structure may undergo a significant reversal, with demand rebounding while supply contracts, potentially leading to a balanced market [9]. - The focus on reducing excess capacity and improving production quality is expected to support coal prices in the near term [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant price increases in coking coal and coke during the night trading session, with coking coal reaching a limit-up of 11% and coke rising by 5.29% [3][4] - The National Energy Administration of China has announced a coal mine production situation inspection to ensure stable coal supply, indicating a proactive approach to manage coal production and market order [6][5] - The inspection will cover eight provinces, including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, focusing on whether coal production exceeds announced capacities and ensuring compliance with production plans [5][6] Group 2 - The article notes that several coal stocks surged to their daily limit, reflecting market optimism following the government's intervention in the coal industry [6][7] - In the U.S. market, major indices experienced declines, particularly influenced by falling semiconductor stocks, with notable drops in companies like Nvidia and Broadcom [8][9] - The earnings season for major tech companies is underway, with over 82% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations, indicating strong performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [12]