格隆汇8月5日｜A股市场银行股集体上涨，其中，浦发银行涨超4%，浙商银行、齐鲁银行、江阴银 行、中信银行、南京银行、农业银行、常熟银行、民生银行、华夏银行、厦门银行涨超2%。值得注意 的是，农业银行再创历史新高。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600000 | 浦发银行 | 3.73 | 4122亿 | 36.38 | | 601916 | 浙商银行 | 2.97 | 953亿 | 24.66 | | 601665 | 齐鲁银行 | 2.47 | 317亿 | 16.65 | | 002807 | 江阴银行 | 2.35 | 118亿 | 15.33 | | 601998 | 中信銀行 | 2.30 | 4696亿 | 23.25 | | 601009 | 南京银行 | 2.21 | 1484亿 | 14.58 | | 601288 | 农业银行 | 2.19 | 22854亿 | 27.78 | | 601128 | 常熟銀行 | 2.14 | 253亿 | 14.22 | | 600016 | 民 ...

Core Viewpoint - Several listed banks reported positive performance for the first half of 2025, with both operating income and net profit increasing year-on-year, while maintaining steady asset growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Five banks reported year-on-year growth in both operating income and net profit, with Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank each exceeding 200 million yuan in operating income [2]. - Ningbo Bank's total assets reached 3.47 trillion yuan, growing by 11.04% year-on-year, while Hangzhou Bank's total assets were 2.24 trillion yuan, up by 5.83% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank exceeded 100 million yuan, with figures of 147.72 million yuan and 116.62 million yuan respectively [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for the five banks remained stable, with Qilu Bank reporting an NPL ratio of 1.09%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3]. - Changshu Bank's NPL ratio was 0.76%, also showing a slight decrease, while both Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank maintained an NPL ratio of 0.76% [3]. Group 3: Service to the Real Economy - Banks have increased credit support to key sectors such as small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, and infrastructure, enhancing their service to the real economy [4]. - Hangzhou Bank reported that its credit issuance had exceeded 50% of its annual target by mid-year [4]. Group 4: Market Performance and Investment Trends - Bank stocks have performed well in 2025, with nine stocks in the A-share market showing a cumulative increase of over 20% [6]. - Public funds have increased their holdings in bank stocks, with the proportion reaching 4.85%, the highest since Q2 2021 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the appeal of bank stocks lies in their high dividend yields and stable performance, making them attractive to long-term investors [6].

湘财证券指出，宽财政推动融资需求增长，在各项融资安排支持下，银行信贷供给充足，有望维持信贷 相对平稳增长。同时，政策稳息差态度积极，银行资产负债两端利率传导效率加强，后续随着存款成本 持续下行，息差或逐渐趋稳，业绩有望保持稳定。地产与城投领域存量风险明显改善，随着稳经济政策 持续推进，银行资产质量将进一步巩固。 基本面上，银行业绩喜报频出。截至目前，共有青岛银行、齐鲁银行、宁波银行、杭州银行及常 熟银行5家上市银行发布上半年业绩快报，归母净利润增速全部实现正增长，其中4家增幅达到了 两位数，资产质量指标保持稳定。 今日沪指早盘低开，随后迅速翻红，银行功不可没。百亿顶流银行ETF（512800）早盘迅速冲高，场内 价格一度涨逾1%，收涨0.59%。全天成交额11.91亿元，环比放量。 | 分割 3日 1分 " | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九年 画线 工具 @ 2 》 | | | | | 银行ETF ① | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 512800[超扫黑] 10:20 0 0 0 861 388 0.008(0794%) 1988 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日农商行板块主力资金净流入9922.62万元，游资资金净流出6846.34万元，散户资 金净流出3076.28万元。农商行板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601077 論农商行 | | 8820.26万 | 16.26% | -7767.31万 | -14.32% | -1052.94万 | -1.94% | | 601860 | 紫金银行 | 1762.72万 | 9.60% | -945.55万 | -5.15% | -817.18万 | -4.45% | | 601128 常熟银行 | | 1351.48万 | 6.16% | 48.55万 | 4 0.22% | -1400.03万 | -6.38% | | 002839 张家港行 | | 468.53万 | 2.83% | 332.46万 | 2.01% | -800.99万 | -4.84% | ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion is that high-quality cyclical stocks are expected to show a fundamental turning point, which is key to their potential for excess returns. Currently, banks with a high proportion of retail exposure are still under pressure, but signs indicate that the pressure on quality stocks is easing. This is due to the gradual clearance of retail non-performing loans and the expectation that net interest margins will stabilize first [3][5][29] - The report predicts that the retail non-performing loan generation for listed banks will remain high until the second half of 2026, but quality banks are expected to clear their non-performing loans ahead of the industry. For quality regional banks with strong risk management capabilities, the turning point for retail non-performing loans may be approaching [3][8][18] - The net interest margin for some quality regional banks is expected to stabilize first due to a noticeable narrowing in the decline of new loan interest rates and the high proportion of long-term savings deposits, which provides greater room for optimization [3][22][29] Group 2 - The macro narrative of anti-involution is strengthening, and long-term economic optimism is increasing, which enhances the winning probability of cyclical stocks. Although the current economic fundamentals remain weak, the long-term optimistic expectations have been reinforced. The report suggests that further demand-side policies are needed to translate expectations into reality, which is a significant factor in recent market adjustments [4][27][29] - The report recommends selecting undervalued high-quality cyclical stocks for excess returns in the second half of the year, while high-dividend stocks still hold significant value but are unlikely to yield excess returns. The performance of individual stocks is expected to diverge, making stock selection crucial [29][31] - The report highlights specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Changshu Bank, Changsha Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and China Merchants Bank as key recommendations for investors looking for quality cyclical stocks with potential for early recovery in fundamentals [29][31]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has shown positive mid-year performance for 2025, with several banks reporting significant growth in both operating income and net profit, indicating a robust financial environment [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Listed Banks - Five listed banks have reported positive growth in operating income and net profit for the first half of 2025, with four banks achieving double-digit growth in net profit [1][2]. - Notable performances include Hangzhou Bank with a net profit growth of 16.67% and Changshu Bank with an operating income growth of 10.10% [2][3]. - Ningbo Bank leads with an operating income of 371.60 billion yuan and a net profit of 147.72 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - As of June 2025, all five banks reported positive growth in total assets, with Ningbo Bank's total assets reaching 3.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.04% [2][3]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for the banks remained stable or slightly decreased, with Hangzhou Bank maintaining the highest provision coverage ratio at 520.89% despite a year-on-year decline of 20.56 percentage points [5][6]. - Capital adequacy ratios for Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank improved, with Ningbo Bank's capital adequacy ratio at 15.21% and core Tier 1 capital ratio at 9.65% [6][7]. Group 3: Non-Listed Banks Performance - Non-listed banks, including Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank, have also reported positive results, with Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank achieving an operating income of 95.37 billion yuan and a net profit of 42.31 billion yuan, both showing year-on-year growth [8][9]. - Other non-listed banks such as Tai Long Bank and Qin Nong Bank reported declines in net profit, indicating mixed performance across the sector [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Hangzhou Bank anticipates a better overall decline in interest margins for 2025 due to rapidly decreasing external funding costs and ongoing business structure optimization [5]. - Both Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank expressed confidence in maintaining stable asset quality despite potential risks in small and micro loans [7].

Group 1 - The United States will implement "reciprocal tariffs" starting August 7, which may impact trade dynamics [1] - Key financial reports are expected from companies such as AMD, Micron Technology, Novo Nordisk, and Eli Lilly [1] - The 2025 World Robot Expo will open in Beijing, highlighting advancements in robotics [1] Group 2 - On August 4, the Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index and the U.S. factory orders for June will be released [2] - On August 5, China will publish the July S&P Global China PMI, and the U.S. will release the July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index [2] - On August 6, financial results from AMD, McDonald's, and Novo Nordisk will be disclosed [2] - On August 7, the U.S. will begin implementing "reciprocal tariffs," and the Bank of England will announce its policy interest rate [2] - On August 8, the U.S. is requesting a resolution between Russia and Ukraine by August 8 [2] - On August 9, China will release July CPI and PPI data [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The introduction of new VAT regulations on bond interest income is expected to favor older bonds, as they remain exempt from VAT, thus enhancing their attractiveness and potentially driving up their prices [2][3]. - The banking sector's dividend yield is projected to be around 3.8% in 2025, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.7%, highlighting the advantages of high-dividend assets in a declining interest rate environment [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic allocation within the banking sector, particularly focusing on state-owned banks and select regional banks with strong asset quality and dividend policies [8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.94% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.74% during the week of July 28 to August 3, 2025 [7]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 11,292.71 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.96% compared to the previous week [7]. Bond Market Impact - The new VAT regulations apply only to newly issued government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds, while existing bonds continue to enjoy tax exemptions, making them more favorable for banks [2]. - The proportion of government and policy financial bonds held by major banks exceeds 70%, indicating a strong focus on these assets [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on high-dividend banks, particularly large state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [8]. - It also highlights the potential for improved return on equity (ROE) in undervalued joint-stock banks, recommending attention to banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank [8]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key banks, with recommendations for several banks based on their projected performance [9]. - For instance, China Merchants Bank is expected to have an EPS of 5.86 yuan in 2025 with a PE ratio of 7.58, indicating a strong investment case [9].

齐鲁银行贷款增速超过10%，截至上半年末，该行资产总额7513.05亿元，较上年末增加617.66亿元，增 长8.96%；贷款总额3714.1亿元，较上年末增加342.68亿元，增长10.16%；存款总额4785.71亿元，较上 年末增加390.3亿元，增长8.88%。 上市银行陆续披露业绩快报，5家城农商行上半年业绩率先出炉。 截至7月31日，已有青岛银行、齐鲁银行、宁波银行、杭州银行及常熟银行5家A股上市城农商行发布业 绩快报，上半年营业收入、归母净利润双双正增长，资产质量指标保持稳定。 据梳理，在已披露业绩快报的5家上市银行中，4家归母净利润实现两位数增长，3家同比增速超16%。 2025年上半年，杭州银行、青岛银行、齐鲁银行分别实现归母净利润116.62亿元、30.65亿元、27.34亿 元，同比增长16.67%、16.05%、16.48%。常熟银行实现归属于本行普通股股东的净利润19.69亿元，同 比增长13.55%；宁波银行归母净利润为147.72亿元，较上年同期增长8.23%。 在营业收入增速方面，仅常熟银行达到10%，其余均维持在个位数增长。据常熟银行披露，该行聚焦主 责主业，资产负债双向发力 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600908 | 无锡银行 | 1350.54万 | 16.10% | -1062.60万 | -12.67% | -287.94万 | -3.43% | | 601860 | 紫金银行 | 1115.48万 | 6.01% | 377.82万 | 2.04% | -1493.30万 | -8.04% | | 601128 | 常熟银行 | 789.98万 | 4.44% | -371.05万 | -2.08% | -418.92万 | -2.35% | | 002958 青农商行 | | 718.15万 | 4.32% | -87.24万 | -0.52% | -630.91万 | -3.80% | | 002807 | 江阴银行 | 472.97万 | 4.74% | -663.01万 | -6.64% | 190.03万 | 1.90% | | 601528 瑞丰银 ...