Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the banking sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The banking industry is expected to see a reasonable M2 growth target of approximately 7.5%, with credit growth around 6.0% and social financing growth at about 8.0% for 2026. This aligns with the anticipated nominal GDP growth of about 5.0% and actual GDP growth of approximately 4.9% [1][15][21]. - The report highlights that the flow of deposits will be a key factor affecting the asset-liability structure of banks in 2026, with a significant amount of term deposits maturing, estimated at around 57 trillion yuan [3][49]. - The credit allocation is expected to show strong support for corporate lending, contributing approximately 80% to 85% of new loans, while retail lending is projected to improve marginally, contributing about 10% to 15% [2][36]. Summary by Sections M2 and Credit Growth - The M2 growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 7.5%, with an expected M2 increment of about 25.4 trillion yuan, driven by fiscal net injection of around 12.0 trillion yuan and bank credit issuance of about 16.8 trillion yuan [1][21][22]. - The anticipated credit growth for 2026 is around 6.0%, with new social financing expected to reach approximately 35.3 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.0% growth rate [21][26][30]. Deposit Flow and Asset-Liability Structure - The report indicates that the flow of deposits from large banks to smaller banks will be a critical factor in determining the marginal changes in the asset-liability gap for large banks in 2026. The pressure from deposit migration is expected to ease somewhat [2][41][54]. - The maturing term deposits for the six major banks are estimated to be between 27 trillion and 32 trillion yuan, with a significant portion being long-term deposits [3][49][50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment in 2026: high-quality companies with improving fundamentals, such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, and stable high-dividend stocks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the banking sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to see a reasonable M2 growth target of approximately 7.5%, with credit growth around 6.0% and social financing growth at about 8.0% for 2026. This aligns with the goal of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [1][21]. - The report highlights that the flow of deposits will be a key factor affecting the asset-liability structure of banks in 2026, with a significant amount of term deposits maturing, estimated at around 57 trillion yuan [3][49]. - The credit allocation is expected to remain strong for corporate lending, contributing approximately 80% to 85% of new loans, while retail lending is anticipated to show marginal improvement, contributing about 10% to 15% [2][36]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The actual GDP growth target for 2026 is estimated at 4.9%, with a nominal GDP growth target of about 5.0%, which corresponds to a reasonable M2 growth target of 7.5% [1][15]. - The projected M2 increment for 2026 is approximately 25.4 trillion yuan, with fiscal net M2 injection around 12.0 trillion yuan and bank credit (including write-offs and ABS) contributing about 16.8 trillion yuan [21][22]. Credit Allocation - Corporate lending is expected to remain the primary support for new loans, while retail lending will experience structural differentiation, with personal operating loans maintaining good growth and housing loans likely showing slight positive growth [2][36]. - The report indicates that the flow of deposits from large banks to smaller banks will be a critical factor in the marginal changes in the asset-liability gap for large banks in 2026 [3][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment in 2026: high-quality companies with improving fundamentals, such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, and stable high-dividend stocks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4][5].

证券之星消息，1月5日农商行板块较上一交易日上涨0.09%，沪农商行领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4023.42，上涨1.38%。深证成指报收于13828.63，上涨2.24%。农商行板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601825 | 沪农商行 | 9.36 | 0.75% | 36.34万 | 3.37 Z | | 601860 | 紫金银行 | 2.77 | 0.36% | 26.38万 | 7295.54万 | | 002839 | 张家港行 | 4.58 | 0.22% | 29.71万 | 1.35亿 | | 601128 | 常熟银行 | 7.05 | 0.14% | - 36.61万 | 2.57亿 | | 600908 | 无锡银行 | 5.93 | 0.00% | 15.01万 | 8889.67万 | | 603323 | 苏农银行 | 5.05 | 0.00% | 23.05万 | 1.16亿 | | 002807 | 江阴银行 | 4.56 ...

证券代码：601128 证券简称：常熟银行 公告编号：2026-001 转债代码：113062 转债简称：常银转债 可转债转股结果暨股份变动的公告 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"本行"）董事会及全体董 事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 累计转股情况：截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，累计已有人民币 535,000 元常 银转债转为本行 A 股普通股，累计转股股数为 76,414 股，占常银转债转股前本 行已发行普通股股份总额的 0.003%。 2025 年第四季度转股情况：2025 年 10 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，累 计有人民币 24,000 元常银转债转为本行 A 股普通股，累计转股股数为 4,065 股。 未转股可转债情况：截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，尚未转股的常银转债金额 为人民币 5,999,465,000 元，占常银转债发行总量的比例为 99.9911%。 一、可转债发行上市概况 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 常银转债的转股期为：2023 ...

（文章来源：证券时报网） 据Wind统计，截至2025年12月31日，沪深两市共有125只个股连续5日或5日以上获主力资金净买入。连 续获主力资金净买入天数最多的股票是天龙股份，已连续14个交易日获净买入；连续获主力资金净买入 天数较多的还有东方电气、华能水电、景旺电子、蕾奥规划、家家悦、美克家居、澳华内镜、常熟银行 等股。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The banking sector is entering a phase of high-quality development, with a focus on absolute and relative returns from bank stocks, driven by high dividend yields and asset quality [3][4][20]. Key Points Financial Performance Projections - Expected revenue growth for listed banks in 2026 and 2027 is +2.5% and +3.6% respectively, with net profit growth of +1.9% and +2.6% [4][20]. - Revenue and profit growth are anticipated to improve due to: 1. Narrowing net interest margin pressure 2. Quality-focused credit issuance amid weak demand [4][20]. 3. Stabilization of fee income growth after several years of fee reductions [4][20]. 4. Stable or improving net non-performing loan generation rates [4][11]. 5. Accelerated supply-side reforms leading to a reduction in the number of bank licenses, improving competition and operational landscape [4][11]. Customer Demand and Market Dynamics - The low-interest-rate environment has shifted customer demand, with government and state-owned enterprises becoming significant contributors to leverage, affecting the structure of new social financing [5][10]. - Regulatory policies are influencing the development of inclusive finance, focusing on risk compensation rather than merely increasing customer numbers [5][10]. Risk Factors - Risks associated with real estate developers and retail sectors are highlighted, with potential for greater-than-expected exposure [6][11]. Profitability and Valuation Adjustments - Adjustments to profitability forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been made, with a focus on net interest income recovery and fee income growth [20][21]. - The expected net interest margin for 2026 is projected to be approximately 1.34%, a decrease of 6 basis points from 2025 [21][22]. - Fee income is expected to grow by 3.6% and 4.9% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive trend in non-interest income [21][22]. Asset Quality and Credit Costs - The net non-performing loan generation rate is expected to stabilize or slightly decline, with structural characteristics of retail and corporate lending continuing [11][21]. - Credit costs are projected to remain stable at around 0.58% for 2026 and 2027, reflecting the balance between corporate and household debt servicing capabilities [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for bank stocks, emphasizing the importance of dividend yield and asset quality in investment decisions [3][4][20]. Additional Insights - The banking sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with a shift in focus from scale to quality, driven by macroeconomic pressures and regulatory changes [12][20]. - The reduction in the number of banking licenses over the past five years indicates successful risk management efforts within the sector [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the need for banks to adapt their strategies to maintain competitiveness in a changing regulatory and economic environment [12][20].

Group 1 - The agricultural commercial bank sector increased by 0.94% on December 31, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84, up 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.02, down 0.58% [1] - The trading volume and turnover for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank were 791,700 shares and 509 million yuan, respectively, with a price increase of 2.38% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds into the agricultural commercial bank sector was 12.64 million yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 39.35 million yuan [1] - The main net inflow for Changshu Bank was 22.32 million yuan, accounting for 13.28% of its trading volume [2] - Zhangjiagang Bank saw a main net inflow of 15.00 million yuan, representing 11.93% of its trading volume [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the 2025 National Green Computing Power Facility List aims to promote the green and low-carbon development of computing power facilities in accordance with the national energy-saving and carbon reduction action plan [1]. Group 1: Industrial Sector - The list includes various computing power facilities in the industrial sector, such as Hongsheng Copper Industry Data Center [2]. - The facilities are part of a broader initiative to enhance energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions in the industrial domain [1]. Group 2: Information and Communication Sector - Numerous data centers from China Telecom and China Mobile are featured, including the China Telecom Hangzhou Smart Computing Center and the China Mobile Yangtze River Delta (Jinhua) Data Center [2][3]. - These facilities are expected to contribute significantly to the digital infrastructure and support the transition to a low-carbon economy [1]. Group 3: Energy Sector - The list highlights energy-related computing power facilities, such as the State Power Investment Corporation Guian Data Center and the Southern Power Grid Green Smart Data Center [3][4]. - These facilities are crucial for integrating renewable energy sources and enhancing the overall efficiency of energy management [1]. Group 4: Internet Sector - The Internet sector is represented by facilities like the Karamay Carbon and Water Cooling Data Center and the New Silk Road Cloud Computing Center [4]. - These centers are designed to support large-scale data processing and storage while adhering to green standards [1]. Group 5: Financial Sector - Financial institutions are also included, with data centers such as the Bank of Communications Data Center and the People's Insurance Group Northern Information Center [4]. - This inclusion reflects the financial sector's commitment to sustainability and efficient data management practices [1]. Group 6: Public Institutions - The list features data centers from public institutions, including the Beijing Urban Sub-center Administrative Office Data Center [4]. - These facilities are essential for improving public service delivery and enhancing data management capabilities in government operations [1].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on undervalued, high-dividend banks, particularly large city commercial banks and state-owned banks [2][19]. Core Insights - The banking sector experienced a decline of 0.9% this week, with negative excess returns influenced by a rebound in market risk appetite, leading to continued outflows of active funds from the sector [2][9]. - The People's Bank of China released a financial stability report indicating a decrease in the number of high-risk rated financial institutions, with the number of red zone (high-risk) institutions dropping from 357 to 312 [6][40]. - The report highlights that the asset scale of red zone banks accounts for only 2.1% of the total, indicating overall stability in the banking sector [6][40]. - The report emphasizes that major banks maintain stable capital levels under various GDP slowdown scenarios, with capital adequacy ratios remaining above regulatory requirements [7][43]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking index has shown a cumulative decline of 0.9%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 2.8% and 4.8% respectively [9][19]. - Active funds have been flowing out of the banking sector, with net outflows of approximately 1 billion yuan over the past week [21]. Financial Stability Report Highlights - The financial stability report indicates a reduction in the number of participating financial institutions due to mergers and restructuring, with a total of 3529 institutions evaluated in 2025, down from 3936 in 2023 [6][40]. - The report notes that the distribution of ratings for village and town banks has decreased to the 3-D level, reflecting some tail risks in the industry [6][40]. Capital Stability Under Stress Tests - Stress tests for 23 major banks indicate that under light, moderate, and severe scenarios, the capital adequacy ratio could decrease by 5.81, 6.43, and 7.33 percentage points respectively, but remains compliant with regulatory standards [7][43][44]. - The report highlights that systemically important banks can maintain a capital adequacy ratio above 12% even under the most severe stress scenarios [50]. Convertible Bond Opportunities - The report identifies potential strong redemption opportunities in convertible bonds of banks, particularly for banks like Changshu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Chongqing Bank, which are approaching their strong redemption prices [8][31]. Dividend Yield Analysis - As of December 26, the average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks' A-shares has decreased to 3.96%, while the H-shares yield stands at 5.24%, with a discount rate of 24% compared to A-shares [25][29].

2025.12.29 本文字数：2244，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈君君 2025年以来，银行理财代销市场明显升温。一方面，多家银行代销理财产品数量和规模快速扩张，理财 代销成为不少银行在息差收窄背景下的重要"发力点"；另一方面，随着业务加速推进，理财、代销等环 节的管理漏洞也逐步暴露，监管罚单密集落地，合规压力同步上行。年内多家银行因理财、代销等业务 管理不审慎等被处罚。 业内人士指出，理财代销正从"规模竞争"迈入"能力竞争"阶段。如何在抢占市场窗口期的同时守住风险 底线，成为摆在银行面前的一道现实考题。 理财规模创新高，中小银行加速入场 银行业理财登记托管中心发布的《中国银行业理财市场季度报告（2025年三季度）》显示，截至今年9 月末，全市场存续理财产品规模达32.13万亿元，首次突破32万亿元大关，创下历史新高；持有理财产 品的投资者数量达1.39亿，同比增长12.7%。 从产品数量看，三季度末全市场存续理财产品4.39万只，同比增加10.01%；存续规模同比增长9.42%。 在低利率环境下，银行理财作为"存款替代"的重要工具，其市场吸引力持续增强。 在此背景下，理财代销成为银行扩张的重 ...