晨 会 纪 要 [2026]第 033 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 1 银行业（郭怡萍） 国家金融监管总局发布 2025 年四季度银行业主要监管指标数据情况。 商业银行盈利增速回正，净利润增速逐季提升。2025 年，商业银行净利润同比增长 2.3%， 年内净利润增速持续提升。分机构类型看，城商行和农商行净利润增速在低基数基础上实 现较快的利润增长，净利润增速分别达 12.9%和 4.6%。大型银行净利润增速持平为 2.3%， 股份制银行净利润增速则下降至-2.8%。商业银行资本利润率 7.78%，资产利润率 0.60%，均 较前值有所下降。其中，大型银行资产利润率保持在 0.67%，体现一定盈利能力韧性。 商业银行息差延续边际趋稳态势，支持提升核心盈利能力。四季度银行净利息收益率 1.42%，持平于三季度，二季度以来净息差整体保持稳定，有助于提升核心盈利能力。全年 来看，商业银行息差同比下降 11 BP，基本符合预期，其中城商行息差体现出较强的韧性， 同比仅下行 1 BP。商业银行非利息收入占比为 22.53%，较三季度继续下降，主要是债市波 动所致。 时 间：2026 ...

股 票 研 究 大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 202601 信贷收支表 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 1 月信贷收支表：负债端，春节错位对存款增长节奏形成扰动，个人定期储蓄存款延 续由中小银行向大型银行迁移的特征；资产端，信贷增速继续放缓，短期贷款显著 增加，其中大型银行更为明显。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 负债端：春节错位对存款形成扰动 资产端：大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓 1） 贷款：同比少增 4893 亿元，其中大型银行、中小银行分别同比 少增 2130 亿元、少增 2763 亿元，中小银行受信贷需求平淡、 揽储压力增加等因素影响，信贷增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the structural relaxation of refinancing policies, which is expected to improve profitability in the banking sector. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy report emphasizes the implementation of personal credit repair measures, supporting micro-entities [1][28]. - The report identifies investment opportunities in the order of securities > insurance > banking, with a focus on the potential for marginal improvements in the brokerage business due to the recent refinancing policy adjustments [12][24]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The optimization of refinancing measures announced by the exchanges is expected to lead to marginal improvements in the brokerage business, with leading firms likely to solidify their advantages through professional capabilities. The Chinese brokerage index performed better than the Hang Seng index during the holiday period, increasing by 0.20% [2][13]. - Recommended stocks include leading brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities, as well as quality regional firms like Guoyuan Securities [3][12]. Insurance Sector - The report notes a mixed performance in the insurance sector, with property insurance companies showing gains while life insurance companies mostly declined. China Property & Casualty Insurance rose by 5%, while China Taiping fell by 4% [24][25]. - Investors are advised to focus on quality leaders in the insurance sector, with a preference for defensive stocks like China Ping An and China Life Insurance for conservative investors [24][25]. Banking Sector - The banking sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with Q4 profits improving and net interest margins stabilizing. The report indicates a year-on-year increase in social financing, primarily due to the pre-positioning of government bonds and a rebound in off-balance-sheet financing [28][37]. - Recommended stocks include quality regional banks such as Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [3][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector's net profit growth has turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% in Q4 2025, showing an improvement compared to the previous quarters [4][10]. - The net interest margin has stabilized at 1.42%, with expectations of a narrowing decline in 2026 due to the re-pricing of high-cost long-term deposits and a slowdown in the reduction of new loan rates [4][10]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.50%, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [4][10]. - The capital adequacy ratio improved slightly to 15.5%, reflecting a marginal increase in capital levels [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Regulatory Indicators for Q4 2025 - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 9.0% year-on-year, with large banks showing a growth rate of 10.8% [7]. - The average capital return rate was 7.78%, and the average asset return rate was 0.60% [10]. 2. Industry and Company Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy by the central bank, aimed at stabilizing economic growth and ensuring adequate liquidity [10]. - The banking sector's focus for 2026 includes identifying banks with potential for performance growth, particularly recommending Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank [4][10]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - The report includes weekly tracking of stock performance, with notable fluctuations in bank stock prices, indicating market volatility [18].

这家智慧招采领域的龙头企业累计回购股份182.72万股，占公司总股本的0.57%，回购成交的最高价为31.15元/股，最低价为24.21元/股，回购均价为27.01元/ 股，支付的资金总额达到4935.67万元。 回购方案于2025年9月24日启动，计划使用自有资金3000万元至5000万元，实际执行金额接近上限。 这些回购的股份将全部用于员工持股计划或股权激励。 春节前的资本市场总是充满变数，当港股市场特别是互联网科技股表现疲软时，A股市场却出现了另一番景象。 2026年1月下旬至2月上旬，就在春节假期临近之际，9家行业龙头公司不约而同地采取了行动。 新点软件在2026年2月13日发布公告，宣布公司已完成股份回购计划。 回购的股份将在未来用于股权激励、员工持股计划或转换公司可转债。 衢州东峰新材料集团在2026年2月12日披露了回购报告书。 这家国资控股的新材料与医药包装企业计划使用自有资金，通过集中竞价交易方式回购公司股 份，回购金额区间为5000万元至1亿元。 回购价格上限设定为6.48元/股，按照这个价格测算，预计回购股份数量约为771.60万股至1543.21万股，占公司总股 本的比例为0.40%至 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The overall social financing growth slightly declined to 8.2% in January, while M1 and M2 growth rates significantly rebounded, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0% [6][16] - Government net financing increased significantly by 2,831 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth [6][17] - The report indicates a shift in deposit structure due to accelerated deposit migration, impacting M1 negatively while having limited effect on M2 [6][16] Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth decreased slightly to 8.2%, while M1 and M2 growth rates increased significantly [15][16] - M1 and M2 growth rates rose by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [6][16] Government Sector - Fiscal strength showed a year-on-year decline, impacting overall financing dynamics [39] Household Sector - Demand remained stable year-on-year, with short-term loan demand increasing [39] Corporate Sector - Short-term loan demand increased year-on-year, while bill financing saw a significant reduction [39] Non-Bank Sector - The acceleration of deposit migration was noted, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][39]

Core Viewpoint - Changshu Bank announced a voluntary shareholding increase plan by senior management, reflecting confidence in the bank's intrinsic value and long-term investment potential [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Management's Commitment - The plan involves the bank's president and several vice presidents, who intend to collectively increase their holdings by at least 550,000 shares within six months from the announcement date [1][4] Current Shareholding Status - As of the announcement date, the management has already increased their holdings by 293,400 shares, with a total investment amounting to 2.0736 million yuan [1][4] Future Plans - The management will continue to execute the shareholding increase plan using their own funds until the target is fully met [1][4]

北京商报讯（记者 孟凡霞 周义力）2月13日，江苏常熟农商行发布公告称，该行于2025年11月21日披露 了《关于部分高级管理人员自愿增持股份计划公告》。基于对常熟农商行内在价值、未来战略规划及长 远发展前景的坚定信心，坚信该行股票长期投资价值，该行行长陆鼎昌，副行长张康德、干晴、程鹏 飞、倪建峰，董事会秘书唐志锋（以下简称"增持主体"）计划自公告披露之日起6个月内，通过上海证 券交易所交易系统集中竞价交易方式合计增持常熟农商行A股股份不少于55万股。 公告显示，陆鼎昌的行长任职资格，张康德、倪建峰的副行长任职资格尚需取得国家金融监督管理总局 苏州监管分局核准。 截至本公告披露日，增持主体通过上海证券交易所系统以集中竞价方式增持常熟农商行股份29.34万 股，累计增持金额207.36万元。本次增持计划尚未实施完毕，增持主体将继续按照增持计划，以自有资 金增持该行股份。 常熟农商行表示，本次增持计划可能存在因资本市场情况发生变化或目前尚无法预判的其他风险因素， 导致增持计划无法继续实施的风险。敬请广大投资者谨慎决策，注意防范投资风险。 ...

证券代码：601128 证券简称：常熟银行 公告编号：2026-002 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 关于部分高级管理人员自愿增持股份计划进展公告 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"本行"）董事会、全体董 事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 已披露增持计划情况 本行于 2025 年 11 月 21 日披露了《关于部分高级管理人员自愿增持股份计 划公告》。基于对本行内在价值、未来战略规划及长远发展前景的坚定信心，坚 信本行股票长期投资价值，本行行长陆鼎昌先生，副行长张康德先生、干晴女士、 程鹏飞先生、倪建峰先生，董事会秘书唐志锋先生（以下简称"增持主体"）计 划自公告披露之日起 6 个月内，通过上海证券交易所交易系统集中竞价交易方式 合计增持本行 A 股股份不少于 55 万股。 增持计划的实施进展情况 截至本公告披露日，增持主体通过上海证券交易所系统以集中竞价方式增持 本行股份 29.34 万股，累计增持金额 207.36 万元。本次增持计划尚未实施完毕， 增持主体将继续按照增持计划，以自有资金增 ...