Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China National Freight (601598) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [1] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns by maintaining an annual cash dividend of 0.29 yuan per share [1] - The total operating revenue for 2024 is projected at 105.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - The report highlights a decline in profit margins, with a gross profit margin of 5.2%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The operating revenue for 2024 is 105.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The gross profit for 2024 is 5.54 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 5.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2024 is 1.09 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - The net profit margin for 2024 is 3.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - Freight forwarding segment revenue reached 67.2 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 2.25 billion yuan, down 2.2% [2] - The professional logistics segment generated 28 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, but the segment profit decreased by 31.8% [2] - E-commerce logistics revenue was 10.5 billion yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 160 million yuan [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts total operating revenue to reach 118.67 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase to 4.01 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 2.3% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.55 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 [4] Market Position and Valuation - The target price for the stock is set at 6.44 yuan, representing a potential upside of 23% from the current price of 5.23 yuan [4] - The report indicates a focus on shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 55.2% for 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for China National Freight (601598) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [1] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns by maintaining an annual cash dividend of 0.29 yuan per share [1] - The total operating revenue for 2024 is projected at 105.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The operating revenue for 2024 is 105.6 billion, with a gross profit of 5.54 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 5.2%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 19.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33% [1] - The investment income for 2024 is 2.04 billion, down 12% year-on-year, while other income is 2.18 billion, down 11% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - Freight forwarding segment revenue reached 67.2 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 2.25 billion, down 2.2% [2] - The professional logistics segment generated 28 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, but the segment profit fell by 31.8% to 724 million [2] - The e-commerce segment reported revenue of 10.5 billion, down 14.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 160 million [3] Financial Projections - The projected total operating revenue for 2025 is 118.67 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 4.01 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 [4] Market Performance - The target price for the stock is set at 6.44 yuan, representing a 23% upside from the current price of 5.23 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7][15] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 105.62 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. In Q4 2024, the revenue was 19.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.8%, but the net profit was 1.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.1%. The report expresses optimism about the company's operational resilience and steady improvement in profitability, along with consistent shareholder returns [5][13][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's agency-related business achieved a revenue of 67.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, with a segment profit of 2.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. The sea and air freight agency revenues were 44.78 billion yuan and 9.40 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 9.1% and 34.3%. The volume handled for sea and air freight was 15.156 million TEU and 824,000 tons, reflecting year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 18.1% [13][14]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.145 yuan per share for the end of 2024, totaling 2.095 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 55.2%. Based on the closing price on March 25, 2025, the dividend yield is 5.6% [14]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 104.58 billion yuan, 115.09 billion yuan, and 127.33 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.1%, +10.1%, and +10.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.08 billion yuan, 4.60 billion yuan, and 4.71 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of +4.1%, +12.8%, and +2.4% [15][16].

2025 年 03 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) | 研究所： | | --- | 证券分析师： 祝玉波 S0350523120005 zhouyb01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 张晋铭 S0350124040003 zhangjm02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 业务量稳健增长，海外布局渐趋完善 ——中国外运（601598）2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/03/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 中国外运 | 4.5% | -1.7% | -7.2% | | 沪深 300 | -0.9% | -1.2% | 12.3% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/03/27 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 5.29 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 4.32-6.80 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 38,586.41 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 27,803.80 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 7 ...

中国外运（601598.SH）2024 年年报点评 ➢ 公司重视股东回报，24 年分红比例提升。公司分红比率由 23 年的 50%提升至 2024 年 54%。2024 全年合计每股股利 0.29 元，同比 23 年持平。按照 2025/3/25 公司市值 377 亿元、全年每股股利 0.29 元计算，2024 年公司股息率为 5.6%。 ➢ 重视 AI 在物流领域运用，完善海外网络布局。1）AI 应用：公司稳步推进泛 AI 应 用，单证自动化服务年处理能力超过 1,500 万单，提升了服务效率；自动驾驶高速干线商 业运营里程累计超 240 万公里，继续保持国内领先水平；加快构建自主可控的核心技术 体系，累计拥有专利 230 项、软件著作权 428 项。2）完善海外网络布局：2024 年公司 海外投资额同比增长 44%，海外营业收入同比增长 9%，净利润同比增长 43%。东南亚 地区，泰国仓库二期顺利完工；拉美地区，持续完善自有网络布局，新设立墨西哥公司。 ➢ 投资建议：我们预计公司 25-27 年实现营业收入 1103、1145、1195 亿元，同比增 速分别为 4.5%、3.7%、4.4%，归母净利润 4 ...

分业务结构看：1）货运代理：24年对外营业额671.7亿元，同比+8.48%；毛利35.24亿 元，同比+7.57%；分部利润20亿元，同比-2.5%，其中，海运代理及空运代理业务利润有所 增长，班列业务由于价格下降导致利润下降。其中，海运代理/空运代理/铁路代理/船舶代 理/库场站服务收入分别为448/94/103/36/40亿元，同比+9%/+34%/-17%/-28%/+6%，分部利 润分别为7.8/2.9/1.3/4.9/3.0亿元，同比+1%/+1%/-18%/-3%/-7%；货量分别为1516.6万标准 箱 /102.8 万 吨 /57.3 万 标 准 箱 /6.7 万 艘 次 /28.45 百 万 吨 ， 同 比 分 别 为 +13%/+14%/+14%/+7%/+8%。 2）专业物流：24年对外营业额279.5亿元，同比+1.56%；毛利21.1亿元，同比-16.26%； 分部利润6.84亿元，同比-40%，主要是由于新签约服务合同价格下调，而业务固定成本刚 性，导致盈利水平有所下降。其中，合同物流/项目物流/化工物流分别为222/38/19亿元，同 比+6%/-7%/-5%；分部利润分别为5 ...

中国外运（601598.SH）2024 年年报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 105,621 | 110,343 | 114,469 | 119,485 | | 增长率（%） | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4.4 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 3,918 | 4,178 | 4,431 | 4,645 | | 增长率（%） | -7.0 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 4.8 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.54 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.64 | | PE | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | | PB | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 重视股东回报，逐步完善海外布局 2025 年 03 月 26 日 ➢ 事件概述。2025 年 3 月 25 日，公司发布 2024 年年报。1）收入端：24 年公司实 现营收 1056 亿元，同比+4%，实现销售毛利 55.4 ...

上 市 公 司 交通运输 ——业绩符合预期，股息率提供安全边际 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 5.17 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 6.80/4.32 | | 市净率 | 1.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.61 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 27,173 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,369.98/10,649.08 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.42 | | 资产负债率% | 45.54 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 7,294/5,256 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/2,038 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 03-25 04-25 05-25 06-25 07-25 08-25 09-25 10-25 11-25 12-25 01-25 02-25 03-25 -30% -20 ...

空海运业务量增长提振收入，成本承压影响利润。空运：空运分部利润2.9 亿元，同比增长1%。其中， 公司全年完成空运业务量82.4 万吨（不含跨境电商业务量），同比增长18%，24Q4 完成空运业务量25 万吨（不含跨境电商业务量），同比增长23%。受跨境电商出海增长等因素影响，空运运价维持较高水 平。波罗的海空运价格指数全年均值2131点，同比下滑4%。海运：海运分部利润7.8 亿元，同比增长 1%。受运输需求回暖、供应链紧张、地缘政治扰动等因素影响，全年运价中枢抬升，CCFI 2024 年全 年均值1551 点，同比增长65%。量：2024 全年海运箱量1516 万TEU，同比增长13%，其中Q4 箱量419 万TEU，同比增长12%。2024 年上半年运价连续快速上涨舱位紧张，对应收入端相对固定但成本端随 运价持续上行，成本涨幅强于收入涨幅，盈利受到影响。下半年起运价恢复稳态，运价中枢下行，货代 成本端持续改善，盈利空间逐步打开。 投资收益同比下滑拖累业绩。公司2024 投资收益20 亿元，同比下滑12%。公司投资收益主要由合资公 司中外运敦豪贡献，中外运敦豪为公司与DHL50%、50%合资公司，中外运敦 ...

2025 年 3 月 25 日，中国外运发布 2024 年年度报告。2024 年公司 实现营业收入 1056.2 亿元，同比增长 3.8%；实现归母净利润 39.18 亿元，同比下降 7.1%。其中，4Q2024 公司实现营业收入 197.5 亿 元，同比下降 31.7%；实现归母净利润 10.9 亿元，同比增长 3.2%。 货代及物流业务量增长。分业务来看：1）代理及相关业务：海运 代理 1515.6 万 TEU，同比+13.3%；空运通道业务量 102.8 万吨， 同比增长 14%；铁路代理 57.3 万 TEU，同比增长 13.7%；船舶代理 66845 艘次，同比增长 7.3%。2）专业物流业务：合同物流 4989.7 万吨，同比增长 4.4%；项目物流 655.5 万吨，同比增长 4.5%；化 工物流 422.3 万吨，同比增长 10.3%。3）电商业务：公司跨境电 商物流 1.79 亿票，同比下滑 50.7%；物流电商平台 269.9 万 TEU， 同比增长 9.1%。 毛利率同比下滑，带动归母净利率下滑。公司 2024 年实现毛利率 5.25%，同比-0.46pct，主要由于专业物流业务新签合同 ...