证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 中国外运（601598.SH） REITs 项目增厚业绩，总分红率提升至 77% 周期/交通运输 公司发布 2025 年中报业绩，2025 年上半年公司实现营业收入 505.2 亿元，同比下 降 10.4%（调整后），实现归母净利润 19.5 亿元，同比持平，扣非归母净利润 14 亿元，同比下降 22.3%。其中 Q2 实现营业收入 267.5 亿元，同比下降 16.7%（调 整后），实现归母净利润 13 亿元，同比增长 14%，扣非归母净利润 8.3 亿元，同 比下降 22.5%。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：5.63 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 7272 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 5256 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 40.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 29.6 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 5.5 | | ROE（TTM） | 9.8 | | 资产负债率 | 47.0% | | 主要股东 中国外运长航集团有限公司 | | | 主要股东持股比例 | 34.62% ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 half-year results, highlighting a focus on shareholder returns with a maintained dividend of 0.145 yuan per share, despite a revenue decline due to falling freight rates [1][2]. Revenue Summary - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 50.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, primarily due to declining freight rates [1]. - For 2Q25, revenue was 26.8 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year [2]. Profit Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 1H25 was 19.5 billion yuan, flat year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 3.9%, up 0.4 percentage points [1]. - In 2Q25, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.0 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.9%, up 1.3 percentage points [2]. Investment Income - Investment income for 1H25 was 11.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, with 4.39 billion yuan coming from REITs logistics infrastructure [1]. - In 2Q25, investment income reached 8.6 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 73.7% [2]. Business Segment Performance - Freight forwarding in 1H25 generated external revenue of 29.63 billion yuan, down 15.49% year-on-year, while gross profit increased by 17.26% to 2.003 billion yuan [2]. - Professional logistics reported external revenue of 14.32 billion yuan in 1H25, down 5.86% year-on-year, with gross profit of 1.075 billion yuan, down 4.43% [3]. - E-commerce business achieved external revenue of 6.57 billion yuan in 1H25, up 7.28% year-on-year, but gross profit fell significantly by 65.85% to 0.025 billion yuan [3]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company maintained a dividend of 0.145 yuan per share in 1H25, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.6% based on the closing price on August 26, 2025, with a payout ratio of 53.45% [3]. - Total dividends and buybacks in 1H25 amounted to 1.494 billion yuan, representing 76.7% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 110.3 billion yuan, 114.5 billion yuan, and 119.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 4.2 billion yuan, 4.45 billion yuan, and 4.68 billion yuan respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd. (601598) [1] Core Views - The company's performance aligns with expectations, with a reported revenue of 50.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.95 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.1% [6] - The issuance of REITs and the sale of a 25% stake in Luhai International are expected to enhance asset liquidity and improve net profit [6] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with dividends and buybacks accounting for 77% of net profit in H1 2025 [6] - The profit forecast for 2025 has been raised due to the positive impact of asset management activities, with expected net profit of 6.3 billion yuan [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 114.225 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 6.257 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 59.7% compared to the previous year [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.86 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 7 [5] - The company's gross margin is anticipated to be 5.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.4% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that China National Freight (601598) experienced a 22% year-on-year decline in core profit to 1.4 billion RMB, achieving 50% of the bank's full-year forecast [1] Financial Performance - The interim dividend per share remains stable at 0.145 RMB, unchanged year-on-year [1] - Total profit stands at 1.9 billion RMB, consistent with the previous year, which includes 440 million RMB from C-REIT disposal gains [1] Dividend Policy - Despite a high payout ratio of 53.5% in the first half, management has reiterated a commitment to maintaining a stable dividend policy [1] Future Projections - The sale of Loscam equity is expected to generate 1.793 billion RMB in gains and 4.4 billion RMB in cash flow in the second half, supporting the dividend [1] - The target price for the company's Hong Kong stock is raised from 4.3 HKD to 5 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating, while the A-share target price is increased by 8% to 5.6 RMB, with a "Neutral" rating [1]

智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，中国外运(00598)上半年核心利润为14亿元人民币(下同)，同 比下降22%，达该行全年预测的50%。中期息每股0.145元，同比持平。利润19亿元，同比持平，当中包 括4.4亿元的C-REIT处置收益。虽然上半年派息率较高，达53.5%，管理层重申将维持稳定派息政策。 该行料出售Loscam股权将在下半年带来17.93亿元收益及44亿元的现金流入，从而支持派息。重申对公 司港股"买入"评级，目标价由4.3港元升至5港元;重申对其A股(601598.SH)"中性"评级，目标价升8%至 5.6元人民币。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Freight Forwarding (中国外运) reported a decline in total revenue for the first half of 2025, while net profit showed a slight increase, indicating mixed financial performance amidst challenging market conditions [1]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 50.523 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.42% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.947 billion yuan, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.08% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 26.751 billion yuan, down 16.66% year-on-year, while net profit for the quarter was 1.302 billion yuan, up 14.05% year-on-year [1]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved to 6.14%, an increase of 19.13% year-on-year [1]. - Net margin rose to 4.21%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.80% [1]. - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses was 2.06 billion yuan, accounting for 4.08% of revenue, which is an increase of 8.65% year-on-year [1]. Cash Flow and Assets - Cash flow per share was 0.02 yuan, a significant increase of 110.17% year-on-year [1]. - The company reported a total of 111.78 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, up 31.68% year-on-year [1]. - Accounts receivable decreased to 15.53 billion yuan, down 9.83% year-on-year [1]. Debt and Equity - Interest-bearing debt increased to 10 billion yuan, a rise of 23.67% year-on-year [1]. - Book value per share was 5.51 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.10% [1]. - Earnings per share remained stable at 0.27 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.97% year-on-year [1]. Investment Insights - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) was 8.34%, indicating average capital returns [3]. - The estimated dividend yield is 4.59% [3]. - Analysts expect the company's performance in 2025 to reach 3.997 billion yuan, with an average earnings per share forecast of 0.55 yuan [3].

中国外运（601598.SH）2025 年半年报点评 成功发行 REITs 贡献投资收益，重视股东回报维持每股分红绝对金额 2025 年 08 月 27 日 ➢ 事件概述：2025 年 8 月 26 日，公司发布 2025 半年报，2025 年上半年公 司成功发行 REITs 仓储物流基础设施贡献投资收益，重视股东回报每股分红维持 0.145 元，25Q2 实现归母净利润 13.0 亿元，同比+14%。 ➢ 1H25，1）收入端：公司实现营收 505 亿元，同比-10%，营收下滑主要受 运价下降影响；毛利为 31 亿元，同比+6.8%，毛利率为 6.1%，同比+1pct。2） 利润端：实现归母净利润 19.5 亿元，同比持平；归母净利率 3.9%，同比+0.4pct。 扣非归母净利 14.0 亿元，同比-22.3%，扣非归母净利率 2.8%，同比-0.4pct。 3）投资收益：11.7 亿元，同比+19.8%，其中 REITs 仓储物流基础设施处置投资 收益为 4.39 亿元。公司主要合营企业敦豪 1H25 实现净利润 9.12 亿元，同比下 滑 38.7%，为公司贡献投资收益 4.56 亿元；4）其他收益： ...

证券研究报告 港股通 中国外运 (598 HK/601598 CH) 国际货代显韧性，2H 盈利环比将改善 华泰研究 中报点评 2025 年 8 月 27 日│中国内地/中国香港 仓储物流 中国外运发布 1H25 业绩：1）营收 505.2 亿元，同比-10.4%；2）归母净 利 19.5 亿元，同比+0.08%；3）扣非归母净利 14.0 亿元，同比-22.3%，小 幅高于我们扣非净利预期 13.8 亿元，盈利同比下滑主因国际货代业务受关 税负面影响以及专业物流需求偏弱。同时，公司宣布中期每股派息 0.145 元， 分红率 53.5%。我们维持 25-27 年净利预测不变；估值方面，我们认为关税 影响边际减弱，26-27 年国际货代及专业物流市场景气度有望改善，提振公 司盈利和估值。另一方面，公司持续优化资产结构，拟出售路凯国际部分股 权，预计将为公司带来大额处置收益及现金流入。我们上调 PE 估值倍数， 上调 AH 目标价 11%/23%至 6.8 元/5.4 港币，维持"买入"。 中外运敦豪投资收益同比下降-38.7%，占公司归母利润比重下降 代理及相关业务：分部利润同比下滑 1.2% 1H25 来自合 ...

即刻交通 8月26日，中国外运发布2025年上半年财报，数据显示，上半年营业收入505.225亿元，同比下降10.42%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润约19.47亿元，同比增 长0.08%;基本每股收益0.27元，每股派发现金红利0.145元(含税)。归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为13.98亿元，同比下降22.30%。 中国外运表示，2025年上半年，公司合同物流（含冷链物流）2,421.8万吨，上年同期2,492.6万吨；项目物流341.4万吨，上年同期330.2万吨；化工物流203.3 万吨，上年同期185.9万吨。 ...

格隆汇8月26日丨中国外运(601598.SH)发布中报，2025上半年实现营业总收入505.23亿元，同比下降 10.42%；归属母公司股东净利润19.47亿元，同比增长0.08%；基本每股收益为0.2707元。此外，拟对全 体股东每10股派发现金红利1.45元(含税)。 ...