证券代码：601975 证券简称：招商南油 公告编号：临 2025-008 招商局南京油运股份有限公司 关于控股股东增持公司股份计划完成的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 二、增持计划的主要内容 本次权益变动属于增持变动，不涉及要约收购，招商局南京油运股份有限公 司（以下简称"招商南油"或"公司"）控股股东、实际控制人未发生变化。 增持计划基本情况：公司于 2024 年 10 月 14 日披露了《关于控股股东增持 公司股份计划的公告》（临 2024-034），公司控股股东中国长江航运集团有限公 司（以下简称"长航集团"）拟于前述公告披露之日起 6 个月内，通过上海证券 交易所允许的方式（包括但不限于集中竞价交易、大宗交易等）增持公司 A 股股 份；本次拟增持股份不低于公司总股本的 1%，不超过公司总股本的 1.72%；本次 增持计划的价格上限为不超过 4.67 元/股（以下简称"本次增持计划"）。 增持计划实施结果：截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，长航集团累计增持公司股份 82,591 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7][11][13] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on performance due to fluctuations in freight rates, but its flexible operations are expected to stabilize performance [5][11] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.921 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4% [5][11] - The company is a leader in the refined oil transportation market in the Far East, with a strong ability to withstand risks and navigate through cycles [5][11][13] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 1.467 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, and a net profit of 265 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.0% [5][11] - The refined oil transportation business generated revenue of 3.751 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 32.8%, down 2.88 percentage points year-on-year [11][12] - The crude oil transportation business maintained stable revenue of 1.866 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 37.7% [11][12] Future Outlook - The company expects operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 6.520 billion yuan, 7.006 billion yuan, and 7.536 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.7%, 7.5%, and 7.6% [13][14] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.630 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%, followed by increases in subsequent years [13][14] - The company is anticipated to maintain a strong position in the market due to its flexible fleet operations [5][11][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, downgraded from Outperform [3][5][12]. Core Views - The company reported a rapid growth in annual performance for 2024, achieving a revenue of 6.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.921 billion yuan, up 23.38% year-on-year. However, Q4 showed a significant decline in performance, with revenue of 1.467 billion yuan, down 0.89% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 265 million yuan, down 39.10% quarter-on-quarter [1][6]. - The transportation demand for refined oil in 2024 was highly volatile, with freight rates peaking and then declining. Despite strong performance in the first half of the year, the average freight rate for the year did not show significant increases due to geopolitical factors and competition from crude oil tankers [1][9]. - The outlook for 2025 suggests a return to normal demand for refined oil, supported by OPEC+ production increases and a long-term trend of "refining energy moving east," which is expected to bolster medium to long-term demand [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's refined oil transportation revenue increased by 9.3% to 3.75 billion yuan, but the gross margin declined by 2.88 percentage points to 32.8% [1][9]. - The crude oil transportation business generated revenue of 1.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with a gross margin of 37.7% [2][9]. - Chemical transportation revenue reached 470 million yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 18.7% [2][9]. - The company disposed of four old vessels in 2024, contributing 270 million yuan in asset disposal gains, which helped drive overall performance growth [3][12]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised down from 2.26 billion yuan and 2.37 billion yuan to 1.57 billion yuan and 1.61 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.64 billion yuan [3][12]. - The corresponding PE ratios are projected at 9.3, 9.0, and 8.9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][12]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.475 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.921 billion yuan [4][13]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 32% in the coming years, with a slight decline in ROE from 17.7% in 2024 to 10.5% by 2027 [4][13].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results, showing a modest increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit, despite a decline in Q4 performance [1] Revenue and Profit Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.475 billion yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.921 billion yuan, up 23.4% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.669 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 1.467 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 265 million yuan, down 25.0% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 281 million yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - The company's refined oil transportation business generated revenue of 3.751 billion yuan in 2024, up 9.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 32.8%, down 2.88 percentage points [2] - The average Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) for MR-TC7 routes dropped significantly from 37,717 USD/day in the first half to 18,061 USD/day in the second half, a decline of 52.1% [2] - The crude oil transportation business generated revenue of 1.866 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 37.7%, remaining stable [3] - The company’s chemical and ethylene transportation businesses reported revenues of 466 million yuan and 199 million yuan, up 6.4% and 10.6% year-on-year, respectively, with gross margins of 18.7% and 32.4% [4] Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts operating revenues of 6.520 billion yuan, 7.006 billion yuan, and 7.536 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.7%, 7.5%, and 7.6% respectively [5] - Net profits are expected to be 1.630 billion yuan, 1.729 billion yuan, and 2.046 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year changes of -15.1%, +6.1%, and +18.4% respectively [5] - The company is recognized as a leader in the refined oil transportation market in the Far East, with flexible fleet operations and strong risk resilience, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 6.475 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.921 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.4% due to the sale of four old vessels, with asset disposal gains of 267 million yuan in 2024 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.467 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.9%, with a net profit of 265 million yuan, down 25.0% year-on-year and 39.1% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to weak product oil freight rates in the previous year's Q4 [1] - The average freight rate for MR vessels on the Pacific route in 2024 was $29,779 per day, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The supply tightness logic remains, with sanctions on shadow fleets expected to further reduce effective capacity supply, indicating a continued upward industry cycle [2] - According to Clarksons, the current order backlog for MR vessels accounts for 16% of capacity, while vessels over 15 years old account for 41%, indicating that new orders are insufficient to meet future replacement needs [2] Group 3: Company Strategy - The company optimized its fleet structure and balance sheet by selling four old vessels and repurchasing two leased vessels to reduce interest-bearing debt [3] - As of the end of 2024, the company operated a total of 75 vessels, including 39 MR vessels, and continued to improve shareholder returns through share buybacks, which accounted for 1.05% of total equity in 2024 [3] - The company plans to use capital reserves to cover losses and expedite dividends to investors, enhancing shareholder returns and supporting valuation improvement [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to underperformance in freight rates, the company revised its 2025 profit forecast down by 33.8% to 1.51 billion yuan and introduced a 2026 net profit estimate of 1.52 billion yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 9.7 for 2025 and 9.6 for 2026, with a target price reduction of 11.9% to 3.7 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 21.7% from the current price [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a projected decline in revenue for 2025, with an estimated revenue of 6,195 million RMB, representing a decrease of 4.33% compared to 2024 [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease significantly to 1,513 million RMB in 2025, down 21.26% from 2024 [5] - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit growth in 2027, with a projected increase of 1.62% [5] Financial Data Summary - As of March 25, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 3.05 RMB, with a one-year high of 4.11 RMB and a low of 2.73 RMB [3] - The total market capitalization is approximately 14,645.66 million RMB, with a circulating market value equal to the total market value [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 15.08% and a net asset value per share of 2.25 RMB [3] - The forecasted operating income for 2024 is 6,475 million RMB, with a growth rate of 4.50% [5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.32 RMB, reflecting a decrease from 0.40 RMB in 2024 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 12.26% in 2025 from 17.75% in 2024 [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9.68 for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a projected decline in revenue for 2025, with an estimated revenue of 6,195 million RMB, representing a decrease of 4.33% compared to 2024 [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease to 1,513 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.26% [5] - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit growth in 2027, with an estimated net profit of 1,463 million RMB, indicating a slight increase of 1.62% from 2026 [5] Financial Data Summary - As of March 25, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 3.05 RMB, with a one-year high of 4.11 RMB and a low of 2.73 RMB [3] - The total market capitalization is approximately 14,645.66 million RMB, with a circulating market capitalization also at 14,645.66 million RMB [3] - The company has a total share capital of 4,801.86 million shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 15.08% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.32 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.68 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease to 12.26% in 2025, down from 17.75% in 2024 [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue is forecasted to be 6,475 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 4.50% compared to 2023 [5] - The operating profit is projected to decline to 1,765 million RMB in 2025, down from 2,244 million RMB in 2024, indicating a significant drop of 21.31% [7] - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including operating income, costs, and net profit for the years 2024 to 2027, highlighting the expected trends in profitability and revenue growth [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 3.78 CNY, representing a 24% upside from the current price of 3.05 CNY [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is projected to be 1.92 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, which aligns with expectations [2][7]. - Revenue from oil and chemical transportation continues to grow, with oil transportation revenue at 1.87 billion CNY (up 4.1% year-on-year) and chemical transportation revenue at 470 million CNY (up 6.4% year-on-year) [2][7]. - The report highlights a stable increase in gross margins across various segments, with oil transportation gross margin at 37.7% (up 0.41 percentage points) and chemical transportation gross margin at 18.7% (up 1.35 percentage points) [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's main revenue for 2024 is estimated at 6.475 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.5% [3]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.82 billion CNY, with a decline of 5.5% year-on-year, followed by a slight recovery in 2026 and 2027 [3][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.40 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8 [3][7]. Business Segment Analysis - The report indicates that the refined oil transportation segment generated 3.75 billion CNY in revenue, a 9.3% increase year-on-year, although the gross margin decreased to 32.8% [7]. - The report discusses the supply-demand outlook for the refined oil tanker market, noting that demand is supported by the retirement of old refining capacity and changes in trade flows [7]. - The report also mentions that the newbuilding orders for refined oil tankers are gradually increasing, with the current order backlog representing 20.8% of the existing fleet capacity [7].

KPMG Huazhen LLP 8th Floor, KPMG Tower Oriental Plaza 1 East Chang An Avenue Beijing 100738 China Telephone +86 (10) 8508 5000 Fax +86 (10) 8518 5111 Internet kpmg.com/cn 毕马威华振会计师事务所 (特殊普通合伙) 中国北京 东长安街 1 号 东方广场毕马威大楼 8 层 邮政编码:100738 电话 +86 (10) 8508 5000 传真 +86 (10) 8518 5111 网址 kpmg.com/cn 审计报告 毕马威华振审字第 2501664 号 招商局南京油运股份有限公司全体股东： 招商局南京油运股份有限公司 财务报表及审计报告 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度 招商局南京油运股份有限公司 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | 内容 | | 页码 | | --- | --- | --- | | 审计报告 | | | | 合并资产负债表 | 1 | - 2 | | 母公司资产负债表 | 3 | - 4 | | 合并利润表 | | ...

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