Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][10]. Core Views - The company has transformed into a stable operator after overcoming significant challenges over the past thirty years, aiming to become a "global leader in small and medium-sized liquid cargo transportation services" [2][16]. - The domestic oil and chemical gas business provides a profit safety net, while the foreign trade refined oil business offers profit elasticity, supported by the largest MR fleet in the Far East [2][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a history of asset restructuring, losses, and a return to profitability, now focusing on stable operations [2][16]. - It is controlled by China Changjiang Shipping Group and China Merchants Group, with a strong market position in domestic and foreign oil transportation [2][18]. Refined Oil Transportation Supply and Demand - The refined oil tanker market is expected to see improved earnings due to a tight supply-demand balance, with increased demand driven by geopolitical tensions [6][29]. - The supply side is constrained by a low order book and aging fleets, limiting future growth in capacity [6][29]. Domestic and Foreign Trade Business - The company ranks second in domestic crude oil shipping and leads in chemical product transportation, with stable profitability in these segments [6][8]. - The foreign trade refined oil business is expected to benefit from market upturns, with significant profit elasticity projected [6][10]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are estimated at 70.6 billion, 74.4 billion, and 76.6 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 20.9 billion, 21.2 billion, and 21.8 billion yuan [10][11]. - The report anticipates a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% for revenue and 11.9% for net profit [10][11]. Investment Highlights - Short-term benefits from geopolitical tensions are expected to sustain high earnings for refined oil tankers [11]. - Long-term growth is supported by the shift in global refining capacity and limited new ship deliveries, enhancing profit potential [11][29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][11]. Core Views - The company aims to become a "global leader in small to medium-sized liquid cargo transportation services" and has shown stable operations after overcoming past challenges [3][16]. - The domestic oil and chemical gas business provides a profit cushion, while the foreign trade refined oil business offers profit elasticity, supported by the largest MR fleet in the Far East [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Established over 30 years ago, the company has undergone significant transformations, including asset restructuring and a return to profitability, now focusing on stable operations [3][16]. - The company is controlled by China Changjiang Shipping Group and China Merchants Group, with a strong market position in domestic and foreign oil transportation [3][18]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics in Refined Oil Transportation - The refined oil tanker market is expected to benefit from a tight supply-demand balance, leading to increased earnings [7][29]. - Factors such as geopolitical tensions and the shift of global refining capacity are expected to sustain demand for refined oil transportation [12][36]. 3. Domestic Oil and Chemical Gas Business - The company ranks second in domestic crude oil shipping, with stable freight rates providing a solid foundation for overall profitability [9][18]. - The chemical transportation segment is robust, with the company holding a leading position in the domestic market and unique capabilities in ethylene transportation [9][19]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are estimated at 70.6 billion, 74.4 billion, and 76.6 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 20.9 billion, 21.2 billion, and 21.8 billion yuan [11][12]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% for revenue and 11.9% for net profit over the next three years [11][12]. 5. Investment Highlights - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the upturn in the refined oil transportation market, with significant profit potential from its MR fleet [12][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the refined oil transportation segment as a key driver of future growth [12][29].

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——招商南油 2024 年三季报点评 Q3 业绩增长超预期，再次展现经营能力 招商南油(601975) [Table_Industry] 运输/工业 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|--------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 岳鑫 ( 分析师 ) | 尹嘉骐 ( 分析师 ) | | | 0755-23976758 | 021-38038322 | | | yuexin@gtjas.com | yinjiaqi@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880514030006 | S0880524030004 | 本报告导读： 2024Q3 地缘油价致油运市场经历压力测试，公司单季业绩仍同比增长超两成，再次 展现优秀经营能力。预计未来成品油运高景气持续将超预期 ...

关于与招商轮船联合召开 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 证券代码：601975 证券简称：招商南油 公告编号：临 2024-036 招商局南京油运股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2024 年 11 月 6 日（星期三）16:00-17:00 会议召开地点：上海证券交易所上证路演中心（网址： https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络文字互动 投资者可于 2024 年 10 月 30 日（星期三） 至 11 月 6 日（星期三）12:00 前 通过公司邮箱 irm@cmhk.com 进行提问。公司将在业绩说明会上对投资者普遍关注 的问题进行回答。 招商局南京油运股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 10 月 26 日发 布公司 2024 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年前 三季度经营成果、财务状况，也为了增进投资者对招商局集团旗下航运板块的了解， 本公司拟联合招商局集 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 1.656 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 37.62% [5]. - The company is actively replacing its fleet and optimizing its structure to capitalize on the market cycle, having disposed of an old MR tanker and completed the delivery of four old vessels [5]. - The company’s operational performance has generated excess Time Charter Equivalent (TCE), with adjusted Q3 TCE levels estimated between 28,000 to 30,000 USD/day, slightly above market averages [5]. - The company has shown commitment to shareholder returns through share buybacks and plans for major shareholder increases [5]. - New ship orders are primarily driven by replacement needs, with current shipyard capacities booked until 2028 [5]. - The profit forecast has been revised downward due to unexpected declines in freight rates, with net profit estimates for 2024-2026 adjusted to 20.33 billion, 17.44 billion, and 17.95 billion yuan respectively [5]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.197 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8% [6]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 2.033 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 30.5% [6]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 36.0% in 2024 [6]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 18.4% in 2024 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.66 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.6% [1] - The report highlights that the shipping market remains in a favorable cycle due to geopolitical disturbances and controllable supply [1] - The controlling shareholder, Changhang Group, plans to increase its stake in the company, reflecting confidence in future development [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 440 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.7% [1] - The operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 5.01 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year, while Q3 revenue was 1.48 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 34.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company disposed of four old vessels in 2024, generating asset disposal gains of 140 million, 70 million, and 80 million yuan in Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [1] Market and Pricing Index Summary - The average MR-TCE for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 31,000 USD/day, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1] - In Q3 2024, the average MR-TCE was about 25,000 USD/day, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 29.6% [1] - The report notes that the demand side is supported by geopolitical factors and the retirement of old refining capacities [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been slightly adjusted to 2.04 billion, 2.15 billion, and 2.27 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.43, 0.45, and 0.47 yuan [1] - The target market capitalization is set at 21.5 billion yuan, with a one-year target price of 4.48 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the current price [1]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 was ¥1,480,366,116.17, a decrease of 0.73% compared to the same period last year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 reached ¥435,523,772.57, an increase of 20.90% year-on-year[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥360,450,609.11, reflecting a slight increase of 0.41% compared to the previous year[2] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 were ¥0.0908, up 22.37% year-on-year[3] - The net profit for the year-to-date increased by 37.62%, primarily due to higher operating revenue and asset disposal gains[6] - The net profit for Q3 2024 reached CNY 1,666,814,356.66, an increase of 37.5% compared to CNY 1,212,158,782.44 in Q3 2023[18] - Operating profit for Q3 2024 was CNY 1,918,615,747.12, up 34.4% from CNY 1,426,926,736.80 in the same period last year[18] - The total comprehensive income for the third quarter was CNY 713,076,873.35, compared to CNY 633,958,763.58 in the same quarter of 2023[29] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of Q3 2024 amounted to ¥12,919,069,767.64, representing a 10.92% increase from the end of the previous year[3] - Total assets rose to CNY 12,919,069,767.64, compared to CNY 11,647,545,698.50 in the previous year, marking an increase of 10.94%[14] - Total liabilities decreased to CNY 2,285,124,564.28 from CNY 2,498,112,086.23, a reduction of 8.53%[15] - The company's total liabilities decreased slightly to ¥1,259,426,536.78 from ¥1,266,221,696.38, showing a reduction of about 0.5%[25] Cash Flow - The company reported a cash flow from operating activities of ¥2,083,152,778.03, an increase of 20.52% year-on-year[2] - The cash flow from operating activities for Q3 2024 was CNY 2,083,152,778.03, an increase of 20.5% from CNY 1,728,400,752.60 in Q3 2023[20] - The company's net cash flow from financing activities was negative at -¥395,731,978.19, compared to -¥85,745,585.53 in the previous year, indicating increased cash outflows[21] - The cash outflow from investing activities for the first nine months was CNY 107,092,621.38, significantly lower than CNY 651,745,629.57 in the same period of 2023[31] Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 116,267[8] - The largest shareholder, China Changjiang Shipping Group Co., Ltd., holds 1,357,425,761 shares, accounting for 28.27% of the total shares[8] - The top ten shareholders hold a significant portion of the shares, with the top three alone accounting for over 34%[9] - The company has not reported any changes in the participation of major shareholders in margin trading or securities lending[10] Non-Recurring Gains and Expenses - Non-recurring gains for the current period included a profit from the disposal of non-current assets amounting to ¥75,015,136.52[4] - The cumulative non-recurring gains for the year-to-date reached ¥284,899,552.24[4] - The financial expenses showed a significant decrease, with interest expenses at CNY 56,112,340.18 compared to CNY 77,857,968.02 in the previous year[18] - The tax expenses for Q3 2024 were CNY 253,371,502.45, an increase from CNY 219,415,638.50 in Q3 2023[18] Operational Highlights - The company plans to dispose of four old MR oil tankers to optimize its fleet structure and enhance market competitiveness[11] - The company intends to use a total of 10 million to 15 million RMB for the share buyback program[11] - The company has successfully transferred the "CSC BRAVE" for 18.95 million USD and "长航发现" for 14.28 million RMB among other vessels[11] - The company plans to focus on market expansion and new product development to enhance revenue streams in the upcoming quarters[22]

2024 年 10 月 24 日，公司收到长航集团《关于增持招商局南京油运股份有 限公司股份资金来源的告知函》。为响应党中央、国务院决策部署，根据《中国 人民银行、金融监管总局、中国证监会关于设立股票回购增持再贷款有关事宜的 通知》，长航集团与招商银行股份有限公司武汉分行（以下简称"招商银行武汉 分行"）签署了《合作协议》，招商银行武汉分行拟为长航集团提供增持上市公司 股票的融资支持，贷款额度不超过人民币 2.6 亿元，专项用于集中竞价交易方式 增持招商南油 A 股股票。因此，本次增持计划的资金来源为长航集团自有或自筹 资金，其中自筹资金不超过 2.6 亿元人民币，其他资金为自有资金。 本次增持计划可能存在因资本市场情况发生变化或目前尚无法预判的其他 风险因素导致增持计划的实施无法达到预期的风险。如本次增持计划实施过程中 出现上述情况，公司将及时履行信息披露义务。敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 证券代码：601975 证券简称：招商南油 公告编号：临 2024-035 招商局南京油运股份有限公司 关于控股股东获得 A 股股份增持资金贷款支持的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on China Merchants Jinling Shipping (招商南油) with a "Buy" rating [2]. Core Views - China Merchants Jinling Shipping is a leading player in the refined oil transportation sector in the Far East, demonstrating excellent earnings elasticity. The company has been expanding its fleet steadily, operating 74 vessels as of 2024H1, and reported revenue of 3.528 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.78%, with a net profit of 1.22 billion yuan, up 44.76% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Merchants Jinling Shipping, established in 1993 and headquartered in Nanjing, is a specialized oil transportation company under the China Merchants Group. The company focuses on the transportation of crude oil, refined oil, chemicals, and liquefied gas [8][4]. Financial Performance - Following a strategic restructuring in 2015, the company has shown improved management capabilities and profitability. The financial results for 2024H1 indicate a revenue of 3.528 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.22 billion yuan, reflecting strong performance [2][8]. Foreign Trade Refined Oil Transportation - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a restructuring of global refined oil trade, increasing transportation distances and demand for oil shipping. The sanctions on Russian oil exports have shifted trade routes towards emerging markets in Asia and Africa, benefiting the shipping sector [2][18]. - The Red Sea crisis and conflicts in the Middle East have further catalyzed demand for shipping, as vessels are rerouted, increasing shipping times and costs. The average TCE-TC7 rental rate for the company reached 37,732 USD/day in 2024H1, a 32% increase year-on-year [2][34]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is under pressure due to a slowdown in new ship deliveries and stricter environmental regulations, which are increasing the average age of the fleet. As of Q3 2024, the global MR2 fleet consists of 1,762 vessels, with 300 on order, representing about 17% of the fleet [2][18]. Domestic Trade Oil Transportation - The domestic oil and hazardous chemical transportation segment has maintained stable performance, contributing to the company's steady earnings base. The domestic fleet remains a leader in the market [2][18]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts revenues of 7.015 billion yuan, 7.614 billion yuan, and 8.025 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.21%, 8.54%, and 5.39%. The net profit is projected to be 1.931 billion yuan, 2.028 billion yuan, and 2.132 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 0.40 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.44 yuan [2][4].

（一）增持主体名称及与公司的关系：中国长江航运集团有限公司，为公司 控股股东。 （二）增持主体已持有股份的数量、占公司总股本的比例： 本次增持前，长航集团持有公司 1,357,425,761 股股份，占公司总股本的 28.27%。 （三）本次公告前 12 个月内增持主体增持情况：本次增持前 12 个月内，长 航集团未披露增持公司股份计划。 证券代码：601975 证券简称：招商南油 公告编号：临 2024-034 二、增持计划的主要内容 招商局南京油运股份有限公司 关于控股股东增持公司股份计划的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、增持主体的基本情况 本次增持计划增持价格上限为 4.67 元/股。 （一）本次拟增持股份的目的 基于对公司未来发展前景的坚定信心及中长期价值的认可，公司控股股东拟 增持公司股票，切实维护广大投资者利益，增强投资者信心，促进公司持续、稳 公司于 2024 年 10 月 13 日收到公司控股股东中国长江航运集团有限公司（以 下简称"长航集团"）的函，长航集团拟通过上海 ...