-20% -3% 13% 29% 45% 61% 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 保隆科技 沪深300 [分析师： Table_Author]周伟 SAC 执证号：S0260522090001 021-38003684 gfzhwei@gf.com.cn 分析师： 闫俊刚 SAC 执证号：S0260516010001 021-38003682 yanjungang@gf.com.cn 分析师： 张乐 SAC 执证号：S0260512030010 021-38003686 gfzhangle@gf.com.cn 分析师： 邓崇静 SAC 执证号：S0260518020005 SFC CE No. BEY953 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 8 [Table_PageText] 保隆科技|季报点评 一、23 年营收同比+23.4%，归母净利润同比+76.9% 根据财报，公司23年营收59.0亿元，同比+23.4%，实现扣非前/后归母净利润分 别为3.8亿元/同比+76.9%，2.9亿元/同比+251.9%，主要由于TPMS等业务份额提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has achieved rapid growth in its annual performance, with significant expansion in overseas markets and a strong focus on new business development [1][10] - The company's mature businesses continue to grow steadily, while new businesses are experiencing substantial increases in revenue [10][11] - The company has received multiple project approvals from global automotive manufacturers, enhancing its market presence [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 58.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.79 billion yuan, up 77% year-on-year [25] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 27.40%, with a slight increase of 0.60 percentage points year-on-year [3] - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.83 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 27% to 0.68 billion yuan [25] Business Segments - The TPMS and related products generated sales of 1.911 billion yuan, a 29% increase, while new businesses like air suspension and sensors saw revenue growth of 175% and 45%, respectively [10][11] - The company has established a European R&D and manufacturing center in Hungary to enhance local production capabilities [1][3] Future Outlook - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 4.94 billion yuan, 6.74 billion yuan, and 8.59 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.33 yuan, 3.18 yuan, and 4.05 yuan [11] - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for air suspension systems and has a robust order book [18]

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——短期业绩受费用影响，新定点、全球化持续突破 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 04 月 30 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 40.98 | | 一年内最高/ 最低（元） | 67.55/37.5 | | | 2.9 | | 市净率 | | | 息率（分红 / 股价） | | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 8619 | | 上证指数 / 深证成指 | 3104.83/9587.13 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 相关研究 证券分析师 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持）投资要点：公司发布 2023 年报与 2024 一季报。23 全年实现营业收入 58.97 亿元，同比 +23.4%；归母净利润 3.79 亿元，同比+76.9%；扣非归母 2.94 亿元，同比+251.9%。24Q1 实现营业收入 14.83 亿元，同比+24.9%；归母净利润 0.68 亿元，同比-27.2%；扣非归母 0.65 亿 ...

股权激励影响利润，主业经营持续增长 股权激励影响利润，主业经营持续增长。24Q1公司归母净利润下降主要是由于 计提股权激励费用和海运费同比增加等因素所致，但公司主业经营状况持续提 升，24Q1 毛利率 29.5%，同比+1.3pp，环比+3.3pp，盈利能力逐渐恢复，主 要来自主营业务迅速增长。从地区来看，23年海外营收占比 51.1%，国内占比 46.9%，同比+7.5pp，与海外占比差距不断缩小，表明国内客户持续放量。 盈利预测与投资建议。预计公司 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别为 2.37/2.87/3.67元， 对应 PE 为 18/14/11 倍，归母净利润 CAGR 为 27.1%，维持"买入"评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|--------|----------------------------------|--------|--------| | [Table_MainProfit] 指标 / 年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baolong Technology (603197) is "Buy" (maintained) [7][22]. Core Views - Baolong Technology has shown robust revenue growth, with a significant increase in emerging businesses, particularly in air suspension and sensor sectors, which are entering a rapid growth phase [21][22]. - The company reported a substantial increase in net profit for 2023, driven by operational efficiency and favorable currency exchange rates, while the first quarter of 2024 saw a temporary profit decline due to rising expenses [20][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Baolong Technology achieved a revenue of 58.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.44%, and a net profit of 3.79 billion yuan, up 76.92% [20][21]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, a 24.94% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decrease of 27.16% [20][21]. Revenue Growth Drivers - The main business revenue for 2023 was 57.82 billion yuan, growing by 27.60%, primarily due to the rapid growth of new businesses, with air suspension and sensor revenues reaching 7.01 billion yuan and 5.31 billion yuan, respectively, marking increases of 174.75% and 45.16% [21]. - The TPMS business also gained market share, achieving a revenue of 19.11 billion yuan, up 29.44% [21]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 77 billion yuan, 96 billion yuan, and 118 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 24%, and 23% [22]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 5.1 billion yuan, 6.7 billion yuan, and 8.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 35%, 32%, and 28% [22]. Valuation Metrics - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.41 yuan, 3.18 yuan, and 4.08 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 13, and 10 [22]. - The company maintains a healthy ROE, expected to rise from 15% in 2024 to 18% in 2026 [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark in the next six months [8][10]. Core Insights - The company's core business profitability recovery supports an overall gross margin increase, with the gross margin for 2023 at 27.4%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. New businesses (sensors/air suspension) experienced a decline in gross margin due to production ramp-up and market competition, with margins down 3.0 percentage points and 1.7 percentage points respectively. Mature businesses (automotive metal pipe fittings/valve stems) benefited from post-pandemic recovery in overseas markets, with margins increasing by 4.7 percentage points and 4.9 percentage points respectively. The TPMS business saw a gross margin decline of 1.1 percentage points. The increase in profitability from mature businesses offsets the pressure from new business production ramp-up [1][9][25]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 380 million yuan, up 76.9% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 290 million yuan, a significant increase of 251.9% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, the operating revenue was 1.48 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 68 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 69.8% [9][10][19]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024 and 2025 to be 7.8 billion yuan and 9.5 billion yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 32% and 22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is revised down to 500 million yuan and 650 million yuan for 2024 and 2025 respectively, with expected growth rates of 33% and 30%. The projected net profit for 2026 is 820 million yuan, with a growth rate of 26%. Corresponding P/E ratios are 18, 13, and 11 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 58.97 billion yuan for the year 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.44%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.79 billion yuan, up 76.92% year-on-year [8] - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 14.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.94%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.68 billion yuan, down 27.16% year-on-year [8] - The company is experiencing robust growth in its traditional business while rapidly expanding its new business lines, particularly in air suspension and sensors, which are driving revenue growth in the domestic market and automotive OEM sector [8] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 58.97 billion yuan - 2024E: 78.40 billion yuan (32.9% YoY) - 2025E: 99.71 billion yuan (27.2% YoY) - 2026E: 120.26 billion yuan (20.6% YoY) [2][5] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: 3.79 billion yuan - 2024E: 5.00 billion yuan (31.9% YoY) - 2025E: 6.81 billion yuan (36.2% YoY) - 2026E: 8.30 billion yuan (21.9% YoY) [2][5] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Gross Margin: - 2023A: 27.4% - 2024E: 27.2% - 2025E: 26.9% - 2026E: 26.8% [2][6] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 12.8% - 2024E: 14.3% - 2025E: 16.3% - 2026E: 16.6% [2][6] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2023A: 30.99 - 2024E: 17.39 - 2025E: 12.76 - 2026E: 10.47 [2][6] - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow for 2023A was 438 million yuan, with projections of 468 million yuan for 2024E and 489 million yuan for 2025E [4]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/汽车与零配件/汽车零配件 证券研究报告 保隆科技（603197）公司年报点评 2024 年 04 月 30 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 [Table_QuoteInfo] -14.58% -1.58% 11.42% 24.42% 37.42% 2023/5 2023/8 2023/11 2024/2 保隆科技 海通综指 分析师:刘一鸣 Tel:(021)23154145 Email:lym15114@haitong.com 证书:S0850522120003 空气悬架和传感器引领增长，定点开拓和 产能扩张同步推进 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2023 年空气悬架、传感器、TPMS 引领增长，收入同比增速分别 175%、45%、 29%。1）伴随着国内新车市场定价 30 万元以上车型销量占比上升、空气悬 架系统性价比的进一步提升、以及消费者对该产品的认可度提升，将会促使 越来越多的中级新能源汽车和燃油车通过配置空气悬架系统以提升产品竞争 力和客户满意度。2）随着汽车电子化程度的不断提高，公司包括压力类传感 器、光 ...

保隆科技（603197.SH） 买入 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 证券研究报告 | 2024年04月30日 证券分析师：唐旭霞 0755-81981814 tangxx@guosen.com.cn S0980519080002 ■ 营业收入(亿元) - yoy 70 50% 60 40% 50 30% 40 30 20% 20 10% 10 0 0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 资料来源:公司公告、Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 图8:保隆科技单季度四项费用率情况（单位:%） 15% 销售费用率 管理费用李 财务费用李 研发费用率 10% 5% 0% -5% －10% 203101 202103 pplick olo polo polo polo - 202202 201303 - 202407 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|-----------------------------------------------------|-------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the relevant market index by more than 15% over the next 12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.897 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 379 million yuan, up 76.92% year-on-year [9][11]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.483 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.94%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.89% [6][11]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to the expansion of air suspension and sensor businesses, which significantly boosted overall performance [9][19]. - The company has a strong order backlog and is expanding its customer base, particularly in traditional valve and tire pressure monitoring systems (TPMS) [12][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company’s revenue was 58.97 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.79 billion yuan. The Q4 2023 revenue was 17.42 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.40 billion yuan [9][11]. - The revenue breakdown by product for 2023 includes TPMS (1.911 billion yuan), automotive metal parts (1.421 billion yuan), valve stems (0.784 billion yuan), air suspension (0.701 billion yuan), and sensors (0.531 billion yuan), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 29.44%, 6.09%, 9.64%, 174.75%, and 45.16% [9][19]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for 2023 was 27.4%, with a projected increase to 29.1% in 2024 [16]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2023 was 6.4%, with an expected increase to 6.0% in 2024 [16]. Future Projections - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024 to 483 million yuan and for 2025 to 596 million yuan, with a first-time forecast for 2026 at 735 million yuan [13][16]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in its air suspension and sensor businesses, with profitability likely to improve as these segments expand [12][13].