2025年7月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 宏观整体情绪较强，盘面偏强震荡, 近月保持基差修复, 今日若回调可考虑加仓, 设置好止损, SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 7月21日 | 7月18日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 2400.50点, 较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1147.96点, 较上期下跌5.75% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1301.81点, 较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1440.25点, 较上期上涨0.35% | | 7月18日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1181.87点, 较上期下跌0.40% | | | 7月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1646.90点,较上期下跌86.39点 | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数) 1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% ...

截至7月23号，全球集装箱总运力超过3270万TEU，较上年同期增长8.1%。需求方面，欧元区6月综合 PMI为50.2，制造业PMI为49.4，服务业PMI为50.0；美国6月制造业PMI指数49，新订单指数46.4。6月 OECD领先指数G7集团录得100.40。 【逻辑】 昨日期货盘面下跌，主力10合约收1583.9点，上涨3.73%；08合约收2244.9，上涨1.47%。当前主流航司 均已开出8月份价格，不确定性有所降低，预期后续呈现震荡行情。短期内现货价格不会有大幅波动， 中长期由于当前报价处于季节性顶端，后续预计呈现缓慢下跌状态。 【操作建议】 预计偏弱震荡，可逢高做空08、10合约。 【现货报价】 截至7月24日最新报价；马士基：1767-2123美元/TEU，2958-3466美元/TEU；CMA 1935-2285美 元/TEU，3445-4145美元/TEU；MSC 2060-2163美元/TEU，3440-3646美元/TEU；ONE 2604-2814美 元/TEU，3343-3643美元/TEU；EMC 2355-2455美元/TEU，3560-3760美元/TEU。 【集运指数】 ...

Core Insights - The overall Chinese export container shipping market remains stable, with a slight decline in the composite index due to varying supply-demand fundamentals across different long-distance routes [1] Summary by Category European Route - Strong transportation demand has led to an increase in spot market booking prices [1] North American Route - Transportation demand remains stable, but market freight rates continue to decline [1] Persian Gulf Route - Geopolitical conflicts have largely ceased, resulting in a stabilizing effect on the transportation market [1] Australia-New Zealand Route - Transportation demand is steadily improving, with a solid supply-demand balance driving an increase in spot market booking prices [1] South American Route - Continued stable growth in transportation demand and favorable supply-demand dynamics have resulted in rising market freight rates [1]

欧美运往亚洲的货物减少（资料图，reuters） 从美国运往亚洲的货物量以2013年的686万个为顶峰，是去程货物运输（1383万个）的50%。从2024年 的运输量来看，去程增加到2144万个，而返程仅为575万个，比例下降到27%…… 从日本海事中心汇总的年度运输量来看，从美国运往亚洲的货物量以2013年的686万个为顶 峰。2013年为去程货物运输（1383万个）的50%。从2024年的运输量来看，去程增加到 2144万个，而返程仅为575万个，比例下降到27%。 在中国全面禁止废纸进口的2021年以后，不平衡进一步扩大。日本神奈川大学的松田琢磨教 授表示，"一直面临着缺乏足够的返程货物来弥补废弃物运输减少的情况，很难想象短期内不 平衡会有所改善"。从美欧向亚洲运送集装箱的海运公司的成本负担增加。 亚洲方面也容易发生集装箱短缺。如果空集装箱因港口拥挤和航线变更等原因滞留在美欧， 亚洲方面的集装箱将变得供不应求，还将导致运费上涨。 内需低迷正在加速从欧美到中国的货物运输的减少。而美国特朗普政府的关税政策则可能进 一步拉低运输量。中国已对美国征收反制关税。运输量今后也可能持续低迷。 从事集装箱货物追踪服务的 ...

Macro Dynamics - The export container transportation market in China continues to improve, with most ocean routes seeing price increases, leading to a rise in the comprehensive index [1] - The Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index reached 1586.12 points, up 7.2% from the previous period [1] - The demand for transportation on North American routes remains high, with market prices continuing to rise [1] Company Dynamics - Shanghai Lego Land has completed its construction acceptance and is entering the countdown to opening, with the grand opening scheduled for July 5 [8] - U.S. Steel Company plans to maintain its American identity and achieve growth through collaboration with Nippon Steel, which will involve significant investment and job creation over the next four years [9] - Boeing has reached a principle agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice to avoid prosecution related to the 737 MAX crashes, agreeing to pay a total of $6.881 billion in penalties and compensation [11]

Summary of Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry Overview - The oil transportation market has shown a lackluster performance over the past three years, but the average VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) earnings have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, currently averaging around $44,000, although with significant volatility [2][20] - OPEC's decision to maintain production increases and negotiations regarding the Iran nuclear deal are favorable for the VLCC market, while U.S. tariffs primarily impact large container shipping companies [2][4] - The container shipping sector has seen stable rates in the Southeast Asian market post U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with significant year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [2][6] - LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) transportation is expected to benefit from the launch of two to three self-operated LNG vessels in 2025, while the roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) business is gaining a competitive edge through the introduction of new vessels [2][7] Key Points and Arguments - The oil tanker market is expected to experience reduced volatility in 2025, with strong resilience in median pricing. Factors such as OPEC's production increases and unexpected demand from the Middle East are beneficial for VLCC supply and demand dynamics [2][8] - The company has paused its U.S. oil loading operations for nearly a month, but the impact on long-haul operations is limited due to optimization of customer and cargo structures [4][5] - The bulk shipping sector is projected to perform relatively weakly in 2025, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) showing a year-on-year decline, necessitating close monitoring of market dynamics for potential growth opportunities [4][9] - The company anticipates that the container shipping business will remain a significant contributor in 2025, with a notable increase in Q1 performance despite no significant changes in overall supply chain routes [6][2] - The roll-on/roll-off business is gradually replacing older vessels with new ones, which will help meet IMO carbon emission regulations and provide cost advantages [7][2] Additional Important Insights - The oil transportation market's performance has been weaker than expected due to factors such as slower-than-anticipated retirement of older vessels and the emergence of non-compliant fleets, which hinder market efficiency [11][20] - Saudi Arabia increased oil production by 400,000 barrels in May 2025, but this increase may not be sustained, with market speculation about further production increases pending official announcements [12][4] - The anticipated rise in freight rates from late May to June 2025 may be tempered by seasonal factors such as refinery maintenance [13][4] - U.S. sanctions on Chinese ports and companies have reduced direct Iranian oil shipments to China, leading to increased transshipment operations through Malaysia [14][4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains optimistic, with current average earnings exceeding pre-pandemic levels despite significant fluctuations [20][2]

在中美互降关税之后，航运巨头们的业务量急剧飙升。 近日，航运巨头赫伯罗特称，在中美关税争端缓和后，最近几天从中国到美国的集装箱预定量跃升了50%。 而且赫伯罗特表示，由于各种地缘政治和经济因素，2025年剩余时间的需求走势存在不确定性。 此前，据央视，根据维齐恩全球海运订单追踪系统的数据显示，截至美国东部时间14日，在美国对华关税政策发生变化后，从中国到美国的集装箱运输预订 量飙升了近300%。 Q1财务表现强劲 赫伯罗特第一季度财务业绩亮眼，利润增长45%至4.69亿美元，收入同比增长15%至53亿美元。这主要由航运量同比增长9%推动，创下近年来最高的同比增 速。 班轮航运收入达到52亿美元，运输量为330万标准箱(TEU)，平均运费为每标准箱1480美元，这两个指标在强劲需求推动下均同比增长9%。 尽管业绩强劲，但是赫伯罗特在季度期间仍面临多项运营挑战，包括持续将船舶从红海转向好望角航线，以及各个港口的中断。 在5月15日的财报电话会上，赫伯罗特首席执行官Rolf Habben Jansen称， "我们预计运力将相当迅速地恢复。我们曾部署小型船舶而不是取消航次，但很快将逆转这一策略。在未来几周内，我们将再 ...

Core Viewpoint - The export container shipping market in China is experiencing a recovery in demand, supported by favorable news related to the "tariff war," leading to an increase in freight rates across most ocean routes [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reached 1479.39 points on May 16, reflecting a 10.0% increase compared to the previous period [1]. - The overall increase in freight rates has contributed to a rise in the comprehensive index, indicating a positive trend in the export container shipping market [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The recovery in demand for shipping services is attributed to favorable developments in the ongoing tariff conflict, which has positively impacted shipping routes [1]. - Most ocean routes are witnessing an uptick in transportation demand, suggesting a broader recovery in international trade activities [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese export container shipping market has experienced a slight decline, with transportation demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the holiday [1] Market Overview - The overall market index has decreased due to falling freight rates across most shipping routes [1] - European routes have seen stable demand before the holiday, but market freight rates have slightly decreased [1] - North American routes continue to experience low demand, leading to adjustments in capacity deployment, with spot booking prices showing a slight increase [1] - The Persian Gulf routes are facing weak demand, resulting in continued declines in spot booking prices [1] - The Australia-New Zealand routes lack momentum for further growth in demand, causing a continued drop in market freight rates [1] - South American routes are also struggling with weak demand, leading to lower spot booking prices [1]