Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping sector has shown strong performance since early 2026, with a cumulative increase of over 20%, positioning it as a leading sector in the A-share market amid rising prices [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The leading oil shipping company, China Merchants Energy Shipping, has seen its stock price surpass the historical high set in 2007, nearly doubling from its low in 2025. Another major player, COSCO Shipping Energy, has also increased by nearly 50% from its 2025 low [5]. - The rise in stock prices for these leading companies aligns closely with the increase in oil shipping rates, which reached a five-year high in the fourth quarter of 2025 after hitting a multi-year low in July 2025 [5][7]. - In 2025, China Merchants Energy Shipping reported a net profit of 6-6.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%-29%, with the fourth quarter net profit showing a significant increase of 55%-90% [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil shipping market is characterized by a cyclical nature, requiring positive changes in both supply and demand to initiate a new cycle. Currently, the supply side is influenced by the age of vessels and operational efficiency, with a significant portion of the fleet being older than 20 years [8][9]. - The global fleet of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) is experiencing a decline in overall capacity, with older vessels facing operational inefficiencies and potential exit from compliant markets [9][12]. - On the demand side, the lifting of OPEC+ production cuts and increased production from countries like Brazil and Guyana have positively impacted oil shipping demand, extending average shipping distances and enhancing demand for oil transport [14][15]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The oil shipping industry is showing signs of entering a new upward cycle, supported by a tightening supply and recovering demand. Historical patterns suggest that significant price increases can occur when supply is reduced and demand increases simultaneously [15][19]. - The consolidation within the domestic oil shipping market has led to increased market concentration, with China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy being the top players globally [17][19]. - The current geopolitical landscape emphasizes energy security, which adds intrinsic value to the oil shipping sector, further supported by the cyclical recovery in shipping rates [19].

证 券 研 究 报 告 招商轮船（601872）2025 年业绩预告点评 推荐（维持） 公司研究 航运 2026 年 01 月 09 日 目标价：12.0 元 当前价：9.60 元 25 年归母净利预告中值 63 亿，同比+23%， 业绩创新高，继续看好油轮上行景气 ❖ 1、公司公告 2025 年业绩预增公告： 预计 2025 年实现归母净利 60~66 亿，同比+17%~29%，中值 63 亿，同比+23%； 扣非净利 50~56 亿，同比-0.2%~+12%，中值 53 亿，同比+6%；测算非经常性 损益 10 亿。 预计 25Q4 实现归母净利 27~33 亿，同比+55%~90%，中值 30 亿，同比+73%； 扣非净利 21~27 亿，同比+22~57%，中值 24 亿，同比+39%；测算非经常性损 益 6 亿。 我们继续看好此轮油运周期景气持续性，1）供给逻辑不变，截至 26 年 1 月 VLCC 在手订单占比为 17.2%，而 20 岁以上运力占比达 19%，15 岁以上运力 占比超 40%，环保政策趋严背景下老龄化因素对冲少量新船交付；2）被制裁 VLCC 运力占比已升至 16.57%，随着制 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，预计2026年油散进入周期兑现阶段。一方面，船队老化和黑 白船队的割裂将导致市场运力供给不足，截至2025年11月被制裁运力在全球VLCC中的占比为15.7%， 较年初增长5.8ppts，导致被制裁运力开始逐步转化为浮舱增加；另一方面，中信证券测算到2027年20岁 以上VLCC运力占比将提升4pcts至23%，新船交付或难以应对老旧船的替换需求，2026年供给端强约束 将进一步显现。 干散货：美国降息周期有望增强新兴国家需求张力，同时西芒杜铁矿石项目产量增长和中美潜在的大豆 贸易将提供Cape和Pana边际增量。 2025年上半年，受上游大宗商品价格下行和需求偏弱影响，BDI指数同比下滑；进入2025H2，资源储备 叠加上游出货增加，导致大宗商品运输需求快速修复，另外国内反内卷政策推进对需求端也有所助力， 我们看到大型船贡献了超半数的指数增长。展望2026年，我们认为美国降息周期背景下，新兴国家需求 张力有望提升，同时地产端对干散货的边际影响将逐步减弱。 2026年合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下，原油补库需求或为主要边际变量，中信证券预计年化 VLCC运价中枢将 ...

财通证券（601108）发布研报称，当前需求在OPEC+扩产、欧美制裁趋严背景下逐渐走强，运价端已 给予强势回应。而供给侧当前出清欠佳，但高比例的老旧船占比表明出清潜力大，后续倘若灰色市场需 求萎缩，供给端有望迎来拆解潮，从而给予运价长期支撑。 运价与股价强相关，供给出清是大周期的先决条件。二战结束至今，整体持续性好，景气跨度长的周期 共有两轮，分别为1983-1991年和1999-2004年。两轮大周期前均有供给端显著持续性的出清(自然出清亦 或悲观预期、法规推动)，偏紧的供需关系为后续运价弹性的释放提供了更加稳固的支撑，从而使得周 期景气度延续性好。 OPEC+增产提振需求，Q4旺季催化运价景气 今年4月OPEC+开始渐进增产加速油价中枢回落，在油价相对低位背景下，下游炼厂开工率回升叠加海 上浮仓增加，供需关系转暖带动运价快速冲高。截至2025年12月3日，TD3C航线(中东-中国)TCE达到 12.1万美金8/天，较月初提升412.9%。目前正值Q4旺季，在油价低位、制裁趋严及合规需求提升加持 下，全球原油补库或将再度推动运价走高。 风险提示：原油需求大幅下降，OPEC+增产不及预期或转向减产，制裁落地 ...

Market Overview - The market has shown significant adjustments recently, with a recommendation to remain patient and wait for a more stable range around 4000 points [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector, aside from Agricultural Bank's continuous rise, has shown generally weak performance, indicating that the logic for continued investment in banks is not strong under the current slow growth structure [1] Oil Shipping Sector - The oil shipping sector experienced a sudden surge, driven by a significant increase in freight rates, with September rates reaching the highest level for the same period since 1990 [1] - The oil shipping cycle is long, typically lasting 15 to 20 years, with the last peak occurring in 2008, suggesting a potential for a new uptrend due to supply-demand imbalances [1] - Current conditions show a sharp reduction in new shipping capacity, with many existing vessels facing gradual retirement, leading to expectations of a stronger industry outlook over the next five years [1] - OPEC's production cuts since April have contributed to lower oil prices, while strategic inventory replenishment by major countries has increased demand for oil transportation [1] - The growth of production capacity in Latin American countries has further increased the demand for super-large oil tankers, reinforcing the positive long-term outlook for the oil shipping industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9][11]. Core Views - The company is positioned as the world's largest oil tanker owner, with a robust fleet structure that allows it to capitalize on market cycles. The demand for oil transportation is expected to increase due to OPEC+ production boosts, while supply constraints are anticipated to maintain freight rate elasticity [9][10]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 24.485 billion, 26.725 billion, and 27.233 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.84%, 9.14%, and 1.90% respectively [8][10]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be 4.462 billion, 5.803 billion, and 5.757 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 10.51%, 30.05%, and -0.80% [8][10]. - The company’s gross profit is expected to be 6.660 billion, 8.336 billion, and 8.168 billion RMB, with gross margins of 27.2%, 31.2%, and 30.0% respectively [10]. Company Overview - The company controls a fleet of 158 vessels, including 54 VLCCs, making it the largest in the world. The fleet's structure provides significant operational flexibility and profit elasticity [19][23]. - The company has a strong focus on dividend distribution, maintaining a payout ratio around 50% since 2022, with a current dividend yield close to 7% [37][39]. Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for oil transportation is expected to be bolstered by OPEC+ production increases, with a projected supply increase of 214,000 to 411,000 barrels per day [9][46]. - The supply side is characterized by strong constraints, with the VLCC fleet not experiencing significant capacity scrapping for nearly 20 years, leading to a projected effective fleet growth rate of -0.3% to 1.8% from 2026 to 2027 [9][10][13]. Valuation - The company's reset cost is estimated at 55.43 billion RMB, with a current market value to reset cost ratio of 0.73, indicating potential for price appreciation [11][10]. - If benchmarked against comparable companies, the potential upside is estimated at 58%, with scenarios predicting price increases of 65% to 200% under various assumptions regarding ship prices [11][10].