财通证券（601108）发布研报称，当前需求在OPEC+扩产、欧美制裁趋严背景下逐渐走强，运价端已 给予强势回应。而供给侧当前出清欠佳，但高比例的老旧船占比表明出清潜力大，后续倘若灰色市场需 求萎缩，供给端有望迎来拆解潮，从而给予运价长期支撑。 运价与股价强相关，供给出清是大周期的先决条件。二战结束至今，整体持续性好，景气跨度长的周期 共有两轮，分别为1983-1991年和1999-2004年。两轮大周期前均有供给端显著持续性的出清(自然出清亦 或悲观预期、法规推动)，偏紧的供需关系为后续运价弹性的释放提供了更加稳固的支撑，从而使得周 期景气度延续性好。 OPEC+增产提振需求，Q4旺季催化运价景气 今年4月OPEC+开始渐进增产加速油价中枢回落，在油价相对低位背景下，下游炼厂开工率回升叠加海 上浮仓增加，供需关系转暖带动运价快速冲高。截至2025年12月3日，TD3C航线(中东-中国)TCE达到 12.1万美金8/天，较月初提升412.9%。目前正值Q4旺季，在油价低位、制裁趋严及合规需求提升加持 下，全球原油补库或将再度推动运价走高。 风险提示：原油需求大幅下降，OPEC+增产不及预期或转向减产，制裁落地 ...

Market Overview - The market has shown significant adjustments recently, with a recommendation to remain patient and wait for a more stable range around 4000 points [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector, aside from Agricultural Bank's continuous rise, has shown generally weak performance, indicating that the logic for continued investment in banks is not strong under the current slow growth structure [1] Oil Shipping Sector - The oil shipping sector experienced a sudden surge, driven by a significant increase in freight rates, with September rates reaching the highest level for the same period since 1990 [1] - The oil shipping cycle is long, typically lasting 15 to 20 years, with the last peak occurring in 2008, suggesting a potential for a new uptrend due to supply-demand imbalances [1] - Current conditions show a sharp reduction in new shipping capacity, with many existing vessels facing gradual retirement, leading to expectations of a stronger industry outlook over the next five years [1] - OPEC's production cuts since April have contributed to lower oil prices, while strategic inventory replenishment by major countries has increased demand for oil transportation [1] - The growth of production capacity in Latin American countries has further increased the demand for super-large oil tankers, reinforcing the positive long-term outlook for the oil shipping industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9][11]. Core Views - The company is positioned as the world's largest oil tanker owner, with a robust fleet structure that allows it to capitalize on market cycles. The demand for oil transportation is expected to increase due to OPEC+ production boosts, while supply constraints are anticipated to maintain freight rate elasticity [9][10]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 24.485 billion, 26.725 billion, and 27.233 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.84%, 9.14%, and 1.90% respectively [8][10]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be 4.462 billion, 5.803 billion, and 5.757 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 10.51%, 30.05%, and -0.80% [8][10]. - The company’s gross profit is expected to be 6.660 billion, 8.336 billion, and 8.168 billion RMB, with gross margins of 27.2%, 31.2%, and 30.0% respectively [10]. Company Overview - The company controls a fleet of 158 vessels, including 54 VLCCs, making it the largest in the world. The fleet's structure provides significant operational flexibility and profit elasticity [19][23]. - The company has a strong focus on dividend distribution, maintaining a payout ratio around 50% since 2022, with a current dividend yield close to 7% [37][39]. Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for oil transportation is expected to be bolstered by OPEC+ production increases, with a projected supply increase of 214,000 to 411,000 barrels per day [9][46]. - The supply side is characterized by strong constraints, with the VLCC fleet not experiencing significant capacity scrapping for nearly 20 years, leading to a projected effective fleet growth rate of -0.3% to 1.8% from 2026 to 2027 [9][10][13]. Valuation - The company's reset cost is estimated at 55.43 billion RMB, with a current market value to reset cost ratio of 0.73, indicating potential for price appreciation [11][10]. - If benchmarked against comparable companies, the potential upside is estimated at 58%, with scenarios predicting price increases of 65% to 200% under various assumptions regarding ship prices [11][10].