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东吴证券晨会纪要-20250410
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-10 13:04
Macro Strategy - The report suggests that the depreciation of the RMB against the USD may be a response to overseas risk events and a proactive measure to release risks in currency management, with a gradual approach expected in the depreciation process [1][12] - The expected range for USDCNY is projected to gradually rise to 7.40-7.50, indicating a controlled release of risks while maintaining a stable exchange rate [12] Fixed Income - The report on Weicai Convertible Bond indicates an expected listing price range of 112.72 to 125.13 RMB, with a subscription rate of 0.0046% and a conversion premium of approximately 35% [2][14] - The report on Anji Convertible Bond anticipates a listing price range of 109.63 to 122.00 RMB, with a subscription rate of 0.0037% and a conversion premium of around 28% [3][15] - The report on Qingyuan Convertible Bond expects a listing price range of 100.22 to 111.65 RMB, with a subscription rate of 0.0020% and a conversion premium of about 25% [3][17] Industry Analysis - The engineering machinery sector is entering an upward cycle, with a projected 2-3 years of growth ahead, supported by significant share buybacks from major companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG [20][21] - The report highlights a 38% year-on-year increase in domestic excavator sales in Q1 2025, indicating strong market demand and potential for upward valuation adjustments [21] - The engineering machinery companies have low exposure to the US market, with Sany's exposure at approximately 3%, making the overall risk manageable [21] Company Insights - Pengding Holdings reported a revenue of 35.14 billion RMB and a net profit of 3.62 billion RMB for 2024, with significant growth in the automotive and server sectors [5][22] - The company is expanding its production capacity with a projected capital expenditure of 5 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting confidence in future market demand [6][22] - The report on Jerey Co. indicates a projected net profit of 3.03 billion RMB for 2025, with a focus on overseas expansion despite tariff risks [7][8]
福斯特(603806):胶膜量增价减 感光膜快速起量
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-10 11:23
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to intense competition in the photovoltaic supply chain and falling prices of encapsulant materials, but anticipates a recovery in 2025 as excess capacity is cleared and prices stabilize [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 19.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.308 billion yuan, down 29.3% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 3.973 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 33.1% quarter-on-quarter and 9.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company's 2024 encapsulant revenue decreased by 15% to 17.5 billion yuan, despite a 24.98% increase in sales volume to 2.81 billion square meters [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global photovoltaic industry faced an imbalance in supply and demand in 2024, leading to a continuous decline in prices across the entire supply chain [2]. - The average price of encapsulant materials fell from 7.3 yuan per square meter in Q1 2024 to 6.2 yuan per square meter in Q4 2024 [2]. - The company’s market share in the encapsulant segment increased to over 50% despite the price decline [2]. Group 3: Product Segments - The company reported a revenue of 593 million yuan from photosensitive dry film in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.72%, driven by demand from sectors like electric vehicles and AI servers [3]. - Revenue from aluminum-plastic film reached 133 million yuan, up 16.17% year-on-year, benefiting from the expansion of demand in electric vehicles and consumer electronics [3]. - The company is expanding its customer base in the digital, energy storage, and power battery sectors, which is expected to drive further growth in the future [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.46 billion yuan and 3.31 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting an increase of 11.6% and 9.6% from previous estimates [4]. - The target price for the company has been adjusted to 23.5 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 25x for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].
福斯特(603806):胶膜量增价减,感光膜快速起量
HTSC· 2025-04-10 10:54
证券研究报告 福斯特 (603806 CH) 胶膜量增价减,感光膜快速起量 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 10 日│中国内地 | 电源设备 | 公司公布 24 年业绩:2024 全年公司实现营收 191.47 亿元(同比-15.2%), 归母净利 13.08 亿元,(同比-29.3%),扣非净利 12.83 亿元(同比-25.1%); 其中 24Q4 营收为 39.73 亿元,同环比-33.1/-9.9%,归母净利 0.50 亿元, 同环比-88.2%/-85.0%,扣非净利 0.64 亿元,同环比-82.8/-79.8%。公司年 报业绩低于我们预期(归母 16.23 亿元),主要系 24 年光伏供给侧竞争激烈, 胶膜价格持续下跌所致,我们预计 25 年胶膜环节尾部产能出清进程将加速 完成,胶膜价格有望企稳回升,看好公司龙头地位进一步加强和盈利能力提 升,维持"买入"评级。 胶膜:24 年光伏"内卷"引致量增价减,25 年产能出清有望加速 2024 年全球光伏产能失衡叠加需求增速放缓,全产业链价格持续下跌,同 时电 ...
福斯特:2024年报点评:胶膜单平盈利优于同行,电子材料建立第二增长曲线-20250410
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-10 03:23
证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 福斯特(603806) 2024 年报点评:胶膜单平盈利优于同行,电 子材料建立第二增长曲线 买入(维持) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 22,589 | 19,147 | 21,557 | 24,599 | 28,063 | | 同比(%) | 19.66 | (15.23) | 12.58 | 14.11 | 14.08 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1,850 | 1,308 | 1,630 | 2,228 | 2,951 | | 同比(%) | 17.20 | (29.33) | 24.66 | 36.71 | 32.40 | | EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.85 | 1.13 | | P/E(现价&最新摊薄) | 17.67 | 25.00 | 20.05 | 14.67 | 11.08 | [Table_T ...
福斯特(603806):2024年报点评:胶膜单平盈利优于同行,电子材料建立第二增长曲线
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-10 03:01
证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 福斯特(603806) 2024 年报点评:胶膜单平盈利优于同行,电 子材料建立第二增长曲线 买入(维持) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 22,589 | 19,147 | 21,557 | 24,599 | 28,063 | | 同比(%) | 19.66 | (15.23) | 12.58 | 14.11 | 14.08 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1,850 | 1,308 | 1,630 | 2,228 | 2,951 | | 同比(%) | 17.20 | (29.33) | 24.66 | 36.71 | 32.40 | | EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.85 | 1.13 | | P/E(现价&最新摊薄) | 17.67 | 25.00 | 20.05 | 14.67 | 11.08 | [Table_T ...
机构风向标 | 福斯特(603806)2024年四季度已披露持股减少机构超10家
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-10 01:06
2025年4月10日,福斯特(603806.SH)发布2024年年度报告。截至2025年4月09日,共有446个机构投资者 披露持有福斯特A股股份,合计持股量达17.43亿股,占福斯特总股本的66.80%。其中,前十大机构投 资者包括杭州福斯特科技集团有限公司、香港中央结算有限公司、杭州临安同德实业投资有限公司、上 海浦东发展银行股份有限公司-广发高端制造股票型发起式证券投资基金、中国建设银行股份有限公司- 广发科技先锋混合型证券投资基金、中国建设银行股份有限公司-华夏能源革新股票型证券投资基金、 中国工商银行股份有限公司-华泰柏瑞沪深300交易型开放式指数证券投资基金、中国民生银行股份有限 公司-广发行业严选三年持有期混合型证券投资基金、招商银行股份有限公司-泉果旭源三年持有期混合 型证券投资基金、易方达沪深300ETF,前十大机构投资者合计持股比例达58.62%。相较于上一季度, 前十大机构持股比例合计下跌了1.61个百分点。 公募基金方面,本期较上一期持股增加的公募基金共计14个,主要包括华夏能源革新股票A、泉果旭源 三年持有期混合A、大成盛世精选混合A、大成景禄灵活配置混合A、长城中国智造混合A等,持 ...
福斯特:胶膜龙头地位稳固,新材料持续放量-20250410
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-10 00:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][10]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 19.15 billion RMB, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.308 billion RMB, down 29% year-on-year [2]. - The company's photovoltaic film shipments increased by 25% to 2.81 billion square meters in 2024, showcasing its competitive advantages in technology, cost control, and overseas production capacity [3]. - The electronic materials business is experiencing rapid growth, with sales of photosensitive dry film increasing by 38% to 159 million square meters in 2024, indicating a strong demand recovery in the electronic circuit industry [4]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.72 billion, 2.01 billion, and 2.33 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a solid competitive position and growth potential in electronic materials [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 19.15 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 15.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.308 billion RMB, down 29.33% year-on-year [8]. - The diluted earnings per share for 2024 is 0.501 RMB, with a projected increase to 0.660 RMB in 2025 and 0.769 RMB in 2026 [8]. Business Segments - The photovoltaic film segment saw a shipment of 2.81 billion square meters in 2024, with domestic and overseas gross margins of 13.3% and 20.2% respectively [3]. - The electronic materials segment, particularly photosensitive dry films, is entering a growth phase, with significant sales increases and successful integration into major electronic circuit companies [4]. Cash Flow and Valuation - Operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 4.4 billion RMB in 2024, driven by better procurement and receivables management [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 19, 16, and 14 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its earnings growth [5].
福斯特2024年财报:光伏业务承压,电子材料成新亮点
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-04-09 09:59
Core Insights - Foster (603806) reported a total revenue of 19.147 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.308 billion yuan, down 29.33% [1] - The company maintains a competitive edge in the photovoltaic film sector, but the photovoltaic backsheet business has significantly declined, while the electronic materials segment has emerged as a new growth driver [1][4] Photovoltaic Materials Business - The photovoltaic materials segment faced severe challenges in 2024, with photovoltaic film sales reaching 138.906 million square meters, an increase of 43.61%, and revenue of 9.878 billion yuan, up 3.79% [4] - Conversely, photovoltaic backsheet sales were only 6.778 million square meters, a decline of 18.26%, with revenue dropping to 414.7899 million yuan, down 43.53% [4] - The decline in the backsheet business highlights the company's vulnerability in certain segments of the photovoltaic supply chain, despite its leading position in photovoltaic film [4] - The global photovoltaic installation capacity growth has slowed, and the company plans to expand its product range and overseas capacity to address diverse battery and module technology needs [4] Electronic Materials Business - The electronic materials segment emerged as a highlight in the 2024 financial report, with photosensitive dry film sales reaching 73.665 million square meters, a growth of 35.83%, and revenue of 275.3727 million yuan, up 26.92% [5][6] - The PCB market is expected to enter a new growth cycle due to the acceleration of AI applications and the development of automotive intelligence [5][6] - The company has established a dual-base layout in East and South China and has formed partnerships with leading PCB companies, enhancing its competitive position in the electronic materials market [6] Functional Film Materials Business - The functional film materials segment showed steady performance, with aluminum-plastic film sales reaching 5.606 million square meters, a growth of 35.54%, and revenue of 58.9002 million yuan, up 26.52% [7] - The company is focusing on differentiated product development for RO support films, gaining recognition from downstream customers and achieving bulk sales [7] - Despite the steady growth, the functional film materials segment remains relatively small and contributes limitedly to overall performance, necessitating increased R&D investment and market expansion efforts [7] Overall Summary - Foster's 2024 annual report indicates significant pressure on the photovoltaic materials business, while the electronic materials segment has become a new growth point, and the functional film materials business is progressing steadily [7] - The company needs to focus on technological innovation, market expansion, and cost control to navigate the increasingly complex market environment [7]
福斯特(603806) - 内部控制审计报告
2025-04-09 09:47
内部控制审计报告 天健审〔2025〕3488 号 杭州福斯特应用材料股份有限公司全体股东: 按照《企业内部控制审计指引》及中国注册会计师执业准则的相关要求,我 们审计了杭州福斯特应用材料股份有限公司(以下简称福斯特公司)2024 年 12 月 31 日的财务报告内部控制的有效性。 一、企业对内部控制的责任 按照《企业内部控制基本规范》《企业内部控制应用指引》以及《企业内部 控制评价指引》的规定,建立健全和有效实施内部控制,并评价其有效性是福斯 特公司董事会的责任。 二、注册会计师的责任 目 录 一、内部控制审计报告…………………………………………第 1—2 页 天健会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙) 中国注册会计师: 中国·杭州 中国注册会计师: 二〇二五年四月八日 第 2 页 共 2 页 我们的责任是在实施审计工作的基础上,对财务报告内部控制的有效性发表 审计意见,并对注意到的非财务报告内部控制的重大缺陷进行披露。 三、内部控制的固有局限性 内部控制具有固有局限性,存在不能防止和发现错报的可能性。此外,由于 情况的变化可能导致内部控制变得不恰当,或对控制政策和程序遵循的程度降低, 根据内部控制审计结果推测未来内部 ...
福斯特(603806) - 2024年度报告审计报告
2025-04-09 09:47
目 录 | 一、审计报告……………………………………………………… 第 1—6 | | 页 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、财务报表……………………………………………………… 第 7—14 | | 页 | | (一)合并资产负债表…………………………………………… | 第 | 7 页 | | (二)母公司资产负债表………………………………………… | 第 | 8 页 | | (三)合并利润表………………………………………………… | 第 | 9 页 | | (四)母公司利润表………………………………………………第 | 10 | 页 | | (五)合并现金流量表……………………………………………第 | 11 | 页 | | (六)母公司现金流量表…………………………………………第 | 12 | 页 | | (七)合并所有者权益变动表……………………………………第 | 13 | 页 | | (八)母公司所有者权益变动表…………………………………第 | 14 | 页 | | | | 审 计 报 告 天健审〔2025〕3489 号 杭州福斯特应用材料股份有限公司全体股东: 二、形成审计意见的基础 ...