SAF Industry Analysis: Super Cycle Driven by Supply-Demand Mismatch Industry Overview - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry is experiencing a significant shift from "policy-driven" to "hard gap-driven" dynamics, particularly influenced by the upcoming EU ReFuelEU Aviation regulation set to take effect in 2025, which mandates the incorporation of 2%, 5%, and 70% sustainable aviation fuel in aviation fuel by 2025, 2030, and 2035 respectively, translating to a demand of 140 million, 350 million, and 5000 million tons [1][2] Key Insights - The price of SAF has surged over 50% throughout the year due to supply chain disruptions, leading to a significant widening of the price gap with upstream raw material UCO (Used Cooking Oil) [1] - Despite a potential decline in short-term demand post-2026, the UK’s blending target of 3.6% and Singapore's taxation policies are expected to support ongoing demand, with global production capacity estimated at 4-5 million tons, and an effective capacity of 2.4 million tons, which still falls short of the global demand of 2.8 million tons (Europe 1.8 million + USA 600,000 + South Korea and China 400,000) [1] Profit Distribution in the Industry - The industry logic has shifted from mere policy expectations to the realization of excess profits driven by scarce refining capacity [2] - Companies with existing or upcoming SAF production capacity are positioned to enjoy the highest processing profits, while those with compliant and traceable UCO resources will benefit from compliance premiums amid global trade barriers [2] Major SAF Suppliers and Capacities - Key SAF suppliers and their production capacities include: - Jiaao Environmental: 370,000 tons (with an additional 500,000 tons under construction) - Longkun Environment: 170,000 tons (planning to expand to 420,000 tons) - Sinopec: Zhenhai Refining 100,000 tons - Haineng Energy: Shandong Sanju 50,000 tons - Overseas Neste: over 500,000 tons - Unlisted Junheng Biological: 200,000 tons - Yigao Environmental: 200,000 tons [2]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The basic chemical industry index closed at 4569.80 points, up 4.21% from last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.35% [17] - Among the 25 sub-industries in the chemical sector, all showed gains, with inorganic salts, modified plastics, synthetic resins, and chlor-alkali leading the way with weekly increases of 10.92%, 9.94%, 7.87%, and 7.60% respectively [18][19] - A total of 462 stocks in the chemical sector saw 400 stocks rise (87%) and 57 stocks fall (12%) during the week [21] Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Chemical Market Overview - The basic chemical industry index rose to 4569.80 points, marking a 4.21% increase compared to the previous week, and outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.35% [17] - The weekly performance of 25 sub-industries showed no declines, with significant gains in inorganic salts and modified plastics [18][19] Chemical Product Price Trends - Among 380 tracked chemical products, 89 saw price increases while 70 experienced declines [24] - The top ten products with the highest price increases included lithium manganate and lithium battery electrolytes, with increases ranging from 7% to 22% [25] - Conversely, the top ten products with the largest price declines included vitamin VD3 and lithium hexafluorophosphate, with declines ranging from 4% to 13% [26] Key Chemical Sub-Industry Tracking - The polyester filament market remained stable, with average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY showing slight declines [27] - The average industry operating rate for polyester filament was approximately 88.11%, with some facilities undergoing maintenance [28] - The average processing margin for polyester products indicated a slight improvement in profitability compared to the previous week [29] Tire Industry Insights - The operating rates for the full steel tire industry decreased to 55.50%, while the semi-steel tire industry dropped to 63.78% [38] - Export volumes from major tire companies in Southeast Asia showed significant year-on-year declines [39] - The average price of styrene-butadiene rubber increased by approximately 2.45% during the week [40] Refrigerant Market Overview - The R22 refrigerant market remained weak, with prices stabilizing at low levels due to cautious market sentiment [47] - In contrast, the R134a refrigerant market continued to rise, with major producers increasing prices amid tight supply conditions [48]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Jiaao Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with a cumulative increase of 45.25% from December 12, 2025, to January 8, 2026, raising concerns about potential short-term declines following this surge [2][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The company's stock closed at the涨停价 (limit-up price) on January 8, 2026, indicating strong market interest [2][7]. - The stock price has shown a cumulative increase of 45.25% over the period from December 12, 2025, to January 8, 2026, suggesting a volatile trading environment [2][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of approximately 3 billion yuan (3,004,848,264.76 yuan) and a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately -25 million yuan (-25,365,865.15 yuan) [5]. - The company has experienced performance volatility, which investors should be aware of when making investment decisions [5]. Group 3: Operational Status - The company's production and operations are currently normal, with no significant changes in market conditions or industry policies affecting operations [4]. - There have been no major contracts signed recently, indicating a stable operational environment [4]. Group 4: Regulatory and Compliance Issues - The company received an administrative penalty notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on December 9, 2025, which has led to additional risk warnings for its stock [3][9]. - The stock is under other risk warnings as per the contents of the administrative penalty notice [9]. Group 5: Product and Market Risks - The company's bio-aviation fuel products are primarily export-oriented, and their operational performance is subject to national policies and fluctuations in raw material prices, leading to inherent uncertainties [3][9].

证券代码：603822 股票简称：ST嘉澳 编号：2026-003 浙江嘉澳环保科技股份有限公司 股票交易风险提示公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 公司于 2025 年 12 月 9 日收到中国证券监督管理委员会浙江监管局下发的《行 政处罚事先告知书》（浙处罚字[2025]24 号），依据《行政处罚事先告知书》载 明的内容，公司股票被实施其他风险警示。敬请广大投资者理性投资，审慎决策， 注意防范投资风险。 现对公司股票交易风险提示说明如下： 一、生产经营情况 浙江嘉澳环保科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"、"本公司"）股票于 2026 年 1 月 8 日披露了《股票交易异常波动公告》（公告编号：2026-002）。 2026 年 1 月 8 日，公司股票再次以涨停价收盘。 2025 年 12 月 12 日至 2026 年 1 月 8 日，公司股票交易价格涨幅累计达 45.25%， 股票价格近期涨幅较大，可能存在短期涨幅较大后的下跌风险，敬请广大投资 者理性投资，审慎决策，注意防范投资风 ...

证券代码：603822 股票简称：ST嘉澳 编号：2026-002 浙江嘉澳环保科技股份有限公司 股票交易异常波动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 公司于 2025 年 12 月 9 日收到中国证券监督管理委员会浙江监管局下发的《行 政处罚事先告知书》（浙处罚字[2025]24 号），依据《行政处罚事先告知书》载明 的内容，公司股票被实施其他风险警示。 敬请广大投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 一、股票交易异常波动的具体情况 2026 年 1 月 5 日、1 月 6 日、1 月 7 日，公司股票交易价格连续三个交易日内 公司股票交易连续 3 个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过 12%，属于股票 交易异常波动。 经公司自查，并向公司控股股东及实际控制人核实，截至本公告披露日，公司 生产经营正常，确认不存在应披露未披露的重大信息。 公司 2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 3,004,848,264.76 元；实现利润总额 43,840,438.98 元；实现归属于母公司所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company announced unusual stock price fluctuations, with a cumulative increase of over 12% in closing prices over three consecutive trading days from January 5 to 7, 2026, while confirming normal business operations and no undisclosed significant information [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.005 billion yuan and a total profit of 43.84 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -25.37 million yuan [1] External Factors - The company's bio-aviation fuel product exports are significantly affected by external environmental factors, leading to challenges in performance [1] - The company has received an "Administrative Penalty Notice," which will result in additional risk warnings for its stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Jiaao Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. has received a bio-aviation fuel export license for its subsidiary, Lianyungang Jiaao New Energy Co., Ltd., allowing it to produce and export bio-aviation fuel, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and market adaptability [1][2]. Group 1 - The subsidiary, Lianyungang Jiaao, is approved to produce 372,400 tons of bio-aviation fuel at full capacity for the year 2026 [1]. - The company can adjust its supply based on market price differences, optimizing benefits from the export license [1]. - Future production and sales will be arranged according to market changes and regulatory requirements, with a commitment to fulfill information disclosure obligations [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lianyungang Jiaao New Energy Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of ST Jiaao, has received approval from the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China to apply for a 2026 export license for bio-jet fuel, allowing it to produce up to 372,400 tons of bio-jet fuel at full capacity in 2026 [1] Group 1 - The company is authorized to apply for a 2026 export license for bio-jet fuel [1] - The approved production capacity for bio-jet fuel in 2026 is 372,400 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - ST Jiaao (603822.SH) announced that its subsidiary, Lianyungang Jiaao New Energy Co., Ltd., has received a response from the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China regarding the application for the 2026 bio-aviation fuel export license under the "white list" of enterprises [1] Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce has approved Lianyungang Jiaao's capacity to produce bio-aviation fuel at full load of 372,400 tons in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - ST Jiaao's subsidiary, Lianyungang Jiaao New Energy Co., Ltd., has received approval from the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China to apply for a 2026 export license for bio-jet fuel, with a production capacity of 372,400 tons [1] Group 1 - The company is now on the "white list" for bio-jet fuel exports, allowing it to apply for the export license within the approved production capacity [1] - The approval enables the company to flexibly allocate domestic and international resources and adjust supply based on market price differences, maximizing efficiency [1] - The company plans to arrange production and sales according to market changes and regulatory requirements while fulfilling information disclosure obligations [1]