Core Insights - The report indicates an overall improvement in industry sentiment, particularly in resource products, midstream manufacturing, and information technology sectors, with most metal prices rising and strong performance in the new energy materials market [1][6][12] - The report suggests a potential cyclical recovery in 2026, driven by a resonance between the US and China, and recommends positioning in cyclical sectors during market adjustments [1][12] Industry Overview Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all increased, indicating positive momentum in the semiconductor sector [28] - Prices for DDR5 and DDR4 DRAM memory have risen week-on-week, reflecting strong demand driven by AI model iterations and storage needs [24][28] - The October NB LCD shipment volume has shown an expanding year-on-year growth rate over three months, suggesting a recovery in demand for laptops and displays [28] Midstream Manufacturing - Prices in the new energy supply chain have generally increased, with significant rises in VC, manganese lithium, and other materials, driven by ongoing demand and supply chain optimization [22][26] - The price index for photovoltaic products has decreased week-on-week, indicating potential challenges in the solar energy sector [22][26] - The production of packaging equipment has turned negative year-on-year, reflecting a contraction in this segment [22][26] Consumer Demand - The average price of vegetables and fruits has increased due to seasonal supply constraints and extreme weather conditions, with notable price rises in corn and other agricultural products [19][21] - The film industry has seen a decline in box office revenue, while ticket prices have increased, indicating a mixed recovery in consumer entertainment spending [19][21] Resource Products - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with copper, zinc, and nickel showing upward trends, while coal prices have fluctuated due to weak downstream demand [27] - The average transaction volume of construction steel has increased, reflecting a recovery in construction activity [27] - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply dynamics [27] Financial and Real Estate - The report notes an increase in land transaction premium rates and a rise in the area of commercial housing transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [27] - The A-share market has experienced a decline in turnover rate and daily transaction volume, suggesting cautious investor sentiment [27] Public Utilities - Natural gas prices in China have decreased, while electricity generation has seen a widening year-on-year decline, indicating challenges in the energy sector [27]

-广告- 储能： 根据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库 统计：2025年10月全球储能电池产量 63.6Gwh ， 同 比 增 长 62.2%。1-10月累计产量 469.83GWH ，同比增长77.17%。 磷酸铁锂： 根据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库 统计：2025年10月全球磷酸铁锂产量为 40.21万吨 ，同比增长 63.7%。1-10月累计产量 309.57万吨 ，同比增长65.21%。 磷酸铁： 根据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库 统计： 2025年10月全球磷酸铁产量为 33.65万吨 ，同比增长 60.31%。1-10月累计产量 259.41万吨 ，同比增长70.37%。 三元材料： 根据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库 统计：2025年10月全球三元材料产量为 9.58万吨 ，同比增长 19.6%。1-10月累计产量 83.07万吨 ，同比增长3.9%。 三元前驱体： 根 据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库 统计：2025年10月全球三元前驱体产量为 9.65万吨 ，同比 增长23.2%。1-10月累计产量 83.52万吨 ，同比增长4.67%。 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯 ...

磷酸铁： 根据ICC鑫椤资讯数据统计：2025年10月全球磷酸铁产量为33.65万吨，同比增长60.31%。1- 10月累计产量259.41万吨，同比增长70.37%。 三元材料： 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤储能 资讯~ 电池： 根据鑫椤资讯统计:2025年10月全球电池产量231.8GWH;同比增长49.1%；2025年1-10月全 球锂电池产量1822.08GWH;同比增长49.13%。 储能： 根据ICC鑫椤资讯数据统计：2025年10月全球储能电池产量63.6Gwh，同比增长62.2%。1-10 月累计产量469.83GWH,同比增长77.17%。 磷酸铁锂： 根据ICC鑫椤资讯数据统计：2025年10月全球磷酸铁锂产量为40.21万吨，同比增长63.7%。 1-10月累计产量309.57万吨，同比增长65.21%。 根据ICC鑫椤资讯数据统计：2025年10月全球三元材料产量为9.58万吨，同比增长19.6%。1- 10月累计产量83.07万吨，同比增长3.9%。 三元前驱体： 根据ICC鑫椤资讯数据统计：2025年10月全球三元前驱体产量为9.6 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the beginning of a comprehensive electrification effort, highlighting new cycle variables and concentrated industry opportunities [1] Group 1: Electric Vehicle Industry - Xiaopeng Motors is undergoing a full AI transformation, focusing on the integration of AI and battery technology to enhance product design, manufacturing quality, and user experience. The company aims to build a talent foundation by leveraging top experts in electrochemistry and AI for cross-department collaboration [4] - The electrification of heavy-duty trucks and construction machinery is expected to catch up with passenger vehicles in terms of penetration rate as early as next year, driven by rapid cost reductions in the lithium battery supply chain [5] Group 2: New Energy Innovations - The new energy industry is entering a phase characterized by "full-scenario penetration" and "global scaling," shifting the focus from diverse technological exploration to high-quality development that emphasizes efficiency, lifecycle costs, and reliability [8] - Safety in battery technology is paramount, with ongoing efforts to push the safety limits of liquid systems while advancing solid-state battery technologies to ensure comprehensive electrification safety [9] Group 3: Battery Technology Development - Semi-solid and solid-state batteries are expected to coexist for a significant period, with the need to validate solid-state technologies within semi-solid frameworks to facilitate the transition [12] - Current battery technology routes face challenges, such as high costs and performance limitations. A new method using single crystal transition to synthesize manganese dioxide aims to reduce costs and improve performance by addressing the shortcomings of existing methods [13]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.21」 碳酸锂市场周报 多空博弈波动加剧，锂价或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线冲高回落，涨跌幅为+4.19%，振幅16.94%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价91020元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，在2025第十五届高工锂电年会上，海目星董事长赵盛宇致辞表示，今年以来，锂电产业链价 格企稳回升，动力电池与储能市场需求旺盛，新一轮锂电扩产序幕已悄然拉开。基本面原料端，受碳酸锂现货上涨的 带动锂矿报价显著走高，矿山出货意愿走强，冶炼厂受扩产需求的增加而加紧采买，原料成交较为积极。供给方面， 原料成本为现货提供一定支撑，加之盘面快速上涨冶炼厂参与套期保值，故保持较高的开工率、生产较为积极，碳酸 锂国内供给量或将维持增长态势。需求方面，碳酸锂需求仍保持韧性，得益于动力电池与储能订单消费的持续作用。 但亦可以观察到，短期内过快上涨的锂价对下游的采买情绪出现一定抑 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 11 月 220 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-18 | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 99300 | 93520 | 5780 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 99060 | 93420 | 5640 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中 国) | 美 元/吨 | 1086 | 1056 | 30 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 1625 | 1575 | 50 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 2575 | 2465 | 110 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 8950 | 8450 | 5 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.479 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 13.36% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 198 million yuan, a slight decrease of 1.24% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 151 million yuan, down 18.4% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 513 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22.99%, with net profit down 45.02% and net profit after deducting non-recurring items down 39.76% [2] - The average price of the company's pesticide products was approximately 95,000 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.11% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The company successfully advanced its first-ever equity incentive plan, having repurchased approximately 16.76 million shares, accounting for 3% of the total share capital, with the buyback completed at prices between 6.87 yuan and 7.53 yuan per share [2] - The company needs to achieve a net profit after deducting non-recurring items of at least 263 million yuan in 2025 to meet the equity incentive assessment criteria, currently falling short by over 110 million yuan [2] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The demand for pest control due to vector-borne diseases has significantly increased, with expectations for higher demand for the company's key products, such as甲嘧 and 残杀威, driven by rising temperatures and related disease outbreaks [3] - The company is accelerating the registration of pesticide products domestically and internationally, with successful expansions in product registration for甲嘧 in the first half of the year [3] - The lithium battery cathode business is expected to benefit from technological advancements and market recovery, with existing capacity of 5,000 tons and plans for expansion to 16,000 tons [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.7 billion, 3.6 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 300 million, 390 million, and 500 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 32.2%, and 27.4% [4] - The company is assigned a target price of 10.5 yuan per share based on a 15x PE ratio for 2026, maintaining a "strong buy" rating due to favorable growth prospects in its pesticide and new materials businesses [4]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2601 合约涨 9%至 95200 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 1000 元 /吨至 86150 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 1000 元/吨至 83800 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 800 元/吨至 77280 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 217 吨至 26953 吨。 2. 供应端，产量持平+进口增加，周度产量环比小幅增加，11 月国内产量环比变化不大，10 月智利出 口碳酸锂至中国环比增长 46%至 1.62 万吨。需求端，11 月三元材料+磷酸铁锂对碳酸锂需求环比增 加 4%至 11.46 万吨。库存端，碳酸锂社会库存连续去库 13 周至 12.05 万吨，库存周转天数下降至期 货上市以来新低 28.1 天，其中下游去库速度较快。 3. 当前市场多空博弈加剧，短期股商共振，基本面看多的核心原因在于 11 月整体维持较快速度去库 的节奏中，且仓单库存维持低位，矿价表现仍偏坚挺，储能 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a situation of both supply and demand growth. Due to better demand growth rate and expectations, the industrial inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a gain of +6.15% and an amplitude of 9.16%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 87,360 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Fundamental Information**: In October, the domestic power battery loading volume was 84.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1%. The spot price of lithium carbonate has been continuously strengthening, driving up the price of lithium ore. Overseas miners are more willing to sell, and smelters are also more active in purchasing [4]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase significantly as domestic lithium salt plants maintain a relatively high operating rate and imports are expected to rise after the arrival of goods from Chile. Demand from the power and energy storage sectors is driving downstream orders and production scheduling. The overall situation is one of both supply and demand growth, with inventory decreasing [4]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of November 14, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 87,360 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5,060 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,640 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,750 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 2,210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 310 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 952 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 18 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.0959, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37% [21]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 3,360 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 9,510 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 905 yuan/ton [26]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,596.9 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons from August, a decline of 10.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.49%. The monthly export volume was 150.816 tons, a decrease of 218.09 tons from August, a decline of 59.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.07%. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, an increase of 4,390 tons from September, an increase of 9.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 62.15%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [29]. - **Demand Side** - **Intermediate Products**: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 151,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 211,050 tons, an increase of 18,950 tons from August, an increase of 9.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.25%. The price of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the monthly output increased. The price of ternary materials remained flat, and the output decreased. The price of lithium manganate remained flat, and the monthly output decreased. The price of lithium cobaltate remained flat, and the monthly output increased [33][38][41][46][49]. - **Application End**: As of October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 7.15%. The monthly output was 1,772,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 9.59%, and the sales volume was 1,715,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.92%. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.014 million, a year - on - year increase of 90.36% [52][56]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.19, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 13, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 1.39% to 87,840 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 84,350 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 900 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 76,180 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 779 tons to 27,508 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 11 tons to 21,545 tons. In November, the expected production of lithium carbonate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 92,080 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in November increased by 1% to 85,000 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4% to 410,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons [3]. - Demand is both the driver of price and a strong support below the price. There are significant differences between bulls and bears in the current futures price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and positions, as well as the actual resumption time of lithium ore projects in Jiangxi and the potential supply growth after resumption, and the possible off - season in the power sector in the first quarter after the pre - consumption this year [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Lithium Ore Prices**: The closing price of the main futures contract rose by 1,260 yuan/ton to 87,840 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract rose by 1,480 yuan/ton to 86,400 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 17 US dollars/ton to 1,001 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) rose by 30 yuan/ton to 1,450 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Salt and Related Product Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 84,350 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 900 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 76,180 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 5,500 yuan/ton to 131,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Differences**: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 850 yuan/ton to - 8,170 yuan/ton [5]. - **Prices of Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 105,500 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) rose by 1,000 yuan/ton to 154,325 yuan/ton [5]. - **Battery Prices**: The prices of various types of battery cells and batteries remained unchanged on November 7, 2025, compared with October 31, 2025 [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: The report provides charts of the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][14]. - **Price Differences**: There are charts depicting the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][21]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts display the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from March 27, 2025, to November 13, 2025 [37][39]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [41].