【国信石化化工2026核心方向】 油气、炼油炼化、钾肥、磷化工、氟化工、MDI、可持续航空燃料(SAF)、电子树脂 油气：全球降息周期开启，石油需求温和复苏。供给端OPEC+暂停增产，考虑到OPEC+较高的财政平衡油价，以 及美国页岩油较高的新井成本，我们更新2026年布伦特油价中枢在65-70美元/桶。预计2026年天然气消费量将 【国信石化化工2026核心方向】 供给中期约束（ESG+反内卷），叠加全球化工品需求复苏，中国化工业全球竞争力突出，化工行业开启复苏之 路！ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a crucial method for reducing carbon emissions in aviation, capable of reducing carbon emissions by up to 85% compared to traditional aviation fuels [2][20] - Policies in regions such as the EU, the US, and China are driving the development of SAF, creating significant market opportunities [2][39] - The SAF production landscape is diverse, with various technologies being developed, although there are differences in maturity and feasibility [2][11] - Used Cooking Oil (UCO) is a key raw material for SAF production, and China is the largest exporter of UCO, with an estimated annual collection capacity of about 8.1 million tons [2][5] - Investment recommendations include companies such as Jiaao Environmental Protection, Haineng Technology, and others involved in the SAF sector [2][6] Summary by Sections SAF as a Key Method for Carbon Reduction - SAF is a direct substitute for traditional aviation fuel, with high energy density and compatibility with existing aviation systems, requiring minimal infrastructure changes [20][22] - The SAF supply chain includes various raw materials, primarily waste cooking oils and agricultural residues, with significant potential for carbon reduction [22][23] Policy Driving SAF Development - The EU has set ambitious SAF blending targets of 6% by 2030, 34% by 2040, and 70% by 2050, while the US primarily uses subsidies to promote SAF production [2][39][44] - The global demand for SAF is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a need for 35 million tons by 2050 [38][39] Diverse SAF Production Routes - The report highlights multiple production technologies for SAF, with HEFA being the most commercially viable, but AtJ and GFT technologies showing long-term potential [2][29] - The cost of SAF remains high due to technological maturity, limited raw material supply, and an underdeveloped supply chain [23][24] UCO Resource Attributes - UCO is a critical feedstock for SAF production, and China's large population and developed catering industry contribute to a significant UCO supply [2][5] Related Companies - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Jiaao Environmental Protection, Haineng Technology, and others for investment opportunities in the SAF sector [2][6]

请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 2 证券研究报告 基础化工/行业深度报告 领先大市（维持） SAF助力航空减排，国内具备UCO特色优势 分析师：骆红永 S0910523100001 2026年02月06日 本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心观点 u SAF为航空降碳重要手段。SAF是一种可直接使用的液体燃料替代品，与传统航空燃料相比，其最高可减 少85%的碳排放量，并可使用多种动植物油脂以及废弃油脂生产，不必依赖传统化石能源；与电能、氢能 等其他绿色航空新能源相比，SAF具有能量密度高、制备方式灵活、与现有航空动力系统兼容度高等优势， 应用上不需要对现有的发动机和其他基础设施做太多改造。 u 政策推动SAF发展，打开市场空间。欧盟、美国、中国等国家或地区颁布一系列促进SAF发展的政策。根 据ReFuelEU航空法规要求，2030年、2040年和2050年，欧盟的SAF占比为6%、34%和70%。与欧盟通过强制 掺混和碳市场等政策来推动SAF不同，美国主要通过补贴的形式激励SAF的生产、研发和市场推广。 u SAF路线多样，国内加速布局。SAF领域的技术发 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The records primarily discuss the petrochemical industry, including segments such as refining, potassium fertilizers, phosphorus chemicals, fluorochemicals, MDI, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and electronic resins [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Oil and Gas Market**: - A global interest rate reduction cycle has begun, leading to a moderate recovery in oil demand. - OPEC+ has paused production increases, with a projected Brent oil price range of $60-65 per barrel by 2026, influenced by high fiscal balance prices and the elevated costs of new shale oil wells in the U.S. [1] - Natural gas consumption is expected to reach approximately 450 billion cubic meters by 2026, with a peak domestic consumption forecast of 650-700 billion cubic meters between 2030-2040 [1]. - **Refining and Petrochemical Sector**: - Stable crude oil prices at mid-high levels are expected to restore refining and petrochemical profits, with significant profit contributions from by-products like sulfur [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy signals are anticipated to optimize the supply side of refined oil and PX-PTA industries [2]. - **Potassium Fertilizer Market**: - The global potassium fertilizer industry is characterized by oligopoly and high concentration, with a tight balance between supply and demand, suggesting that prices may remain elevated [2]. - **Phosphorus Chemicals**: - Demand in the energy storage sector is driving significant growth in the demand for iron phosphate and phosphate rock, leading to a revaluation of phosphate rock prices, which are expected to remain high in the medium to long term [2]. - **Fluorochemicals**: - The refrigerant market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints from quota limitations and high concentration, indicating a prolonged period of price growth [2]. - **MDI and TDI**: - The U.S. interest rate reduction cycle is expected to boost overseas MDI demand, while supply constraints and tariffs are raising global MDI trade costs, with declining raw material costs leading to continuous profit recovery [5]. - **Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)**: - Under a green low-carbon framework, a mandatory 2% SAF blend in Europe by 2025 is likely to drive up bio-jet fuel prices, with potential for similar policies in other regions, suggesting sustained high-speed growth in SAF demand [5]. - **Electronic Resins**: - Electronic resins are critical materials for the production of copper-clad laminates, with increasing demand driven by AI servers and high-end electronic applications, particularly for PPO and ODV resins [6]. Additional Important Insights - **Liquid Cooling Solutions**: - Immersion and dual-phase cooling solutions are expected to drive rapid growth in the demand for upstream fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, highlighting the importance of liquid cooling applications [4]. - **Energy Storage Demand**: - Continuous optimization of the supply-demand relationship for PVDF fluoropolymers is anticipated due to energy storage needs [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussed industries and their future outlooks.

Industry Analysis: SAF Sector Insights Industry Overview - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry is experiencing a significant shift from "policy-driven" to "hard gap-driven" dynamics, indicating a transition in market drivers [1] - The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, effective in 2025, mandates the incorporation of 2%, 5%, and 70% sustainable aviation fuel in aviation fuel by 2025, 2030, and 2035 respectively, translating to a demand of 140 million, 350 million, and 5 billion tons [1] Key Insights - The SAF prices have surged over 50% year-on-year due to supply chain disruptions, leading to a widening price gap with upstream raw materials like UCO (Used Cooking Oil) [1] - Despite a potential decline in short-term demand post-2026, the UK’s blending target of 3.6% and Singapore's taxation policies are expected to sustain global production capacity at 4-5 million tons, with an effective capacity of 2.4 million tons, which still falls short of the global demand of 2.8 million tons (Europe 1.8 million + USA 600,000 + South Korea and others 400,000) [1][2] Profitability and Capacity Insights - The industry logic has shifted from mere policy expectations to realizing excess profits driven by scarce refining capacity [2] - The profit distribution within the supply chain is being restructured, emphasizing that companies with existing or upcoming SAF production capacity will enjoy the highest processing profits, while those with compliant and traceable UCO resources will benefit from compliance premiums amid global trade barriers [2] Major Suppliers and Capacities - Key SAF suppliers and their capacities include: - Jiaao Environmental: 370,000 tons (with an additional 500,000 tons under construction) - Longkun Environment: 170,000 tons (planning to expand to 420,000 tons) - Sinopec: Zhenhai Refining 100,000 tons - Haineng Energy: Shandong Sanju 50,000 tons - Overseas supplier Neste: over 500,000 tons - Unlisted companies: Junheng Bio (200,000 tons) and Yigao Environmental (200,000 tons) [2]

SAF Industry Analysis: Super Cycle Driven by Supply-Demand Mismatch Industry Overview - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry is experiencing a significant shift from "policy-driven" to "hard gap-driven" dynamics, particularly influenced by the upcoming EU ReFuelEU Aviation regulation set to take effect in 2025, which mandates the incorporation of 2%, 5%, and 70% sustainable aviation fuel in aviation fuel by 2025, 2030, and 2035 respectively, translating to a demand of 140 million, 350 million, and 5000 million tons [1][2] Key Insights - The price of SAF has surged over 50% throughout the year due to supply chain disruptions, leading to a significant widening of the price gap with upstream raw material UCO (Used Cooking Oil) [1] - Despite a potential decline in short-term demand post-2026, the UK’s blending target of 3.6% and Singapore's taxation policies are expected to support ongoing demand, with global production capacity estimated at 4-5 million tons, and an effective capacity of 2.4 million tons, which still falls short of the global demand of 2.8 million tons (Europe 1.8 million + USA 600,000 + South Korea and China 400,000) [1] Profit Distribution in the Industry - The industry logic has shifted from mere policy expectations to the realization of excess profits driven by scarce refining capacity [2] - Companies with existing or upcoming SAF production capacity are positioned to enjoy the highest processing profits, while those with compliant and traceable UCO resources will benefit from compliance premiums amid global trade barriers [2] Major SAF Suppliers and Capacities - Key SAF suppliers and their production capacities include: - Jiaao Environmental: 370,000 tons (with an additional 500,000 tons under construction) - Longkun Environment: 170,000 tons (planning to expand to 420,000 tons) - Sinopec: Zhenhai Refining 100,000 tons - Haineng Energy: Shandong Sanju 50,000 tons - Overseas Neste: over 500,000 tons - Unlisted Junheng Biological: 200,000 tons - Yigao Environmental: 200,000 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - DG Energy has partnered with Samsung Engineering to advance the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) project in Louisiana, marking a significant step in the green transition of the aviation sector in North America [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The collaboration focuses on the research and large-scale production of SAF, leveraging Louisiana's advantageous geographical location, robust energy infrastructure, and efficient logistics network [1] - The project aims to establish a leading green aviation fuel production base in the region [1] Group 2: Company Contributions - Samsung Engineering, a globally recognized engineering firm, brings extensive experience and technical expertise in energy and chemical project design, construction, and operation, ensuring effective project management and timely progress [1] - DG Energy possesses a first-mover advantage in sustainable fuel technology development and market positioning, with complementary resources that lay a solid foundation for the project's implementation [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - Industry forecasts suggest that the project will effectively address the capacity gap for sustainable aviation fuel in North America [1] - The SAF produced will directly replace traditional jet fuel, achieving up to an 80% reduction in carbon emissions without altering existing aircraft engine technology, thus playing a crucial role in the green transformation of the aviation industry [1]

Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a decline in profit margins from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024, with a slight recovery in net profit by 10.56% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [15][16][18] - The report recommends investment in refining and chemical, potash fertilizer, phosphorus chemicals, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sectors due to expected improvements in supply-demand dynamics and profitability [15][18] Supply Side - The cumulative fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector turned negative in June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle [15] - Policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the petrochemical industry have been introduced to combat low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacities [15][16] - The approval for new chemical product capacities is expected to tighten, alleviating the oversupply issue in the petrochemical industry [15][18] Demand Side - Traditional demand is anticipated to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle, supported by monetary and fiscal policy stimuli [2] - Emerging demands from sectors such as renewable energy, SAF, and AI are expected to drive the need for key chemical materials [2] - China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market, and the domestic industry is expected to gain market share as overseas capacities are cleared [2][18] Oil Prices and Market Trends - Brent crude oil averaged around $69.15 per barrel and WTI at $65.87 per barrel in 2025, with prices fluctuating due to various geopolitical and economic factors [3][17] - The overall cost for refining and chemical industries is expected to decrease, leading to a recovery in profitability [18] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies for investment: - **China Petroleum**: A leading comprehensive energy company with a strong position in the natural gas sector [20] - **Rongsheng Petrochemical**: Expected to see profit recovery with sulfur providing performance increments [20] - **Yaka International**: A rare potash fertilizer producer with ongoing capacity expansion [20] - **Chuanheng Co.**: Strong foundation in phosphate with significant resource increments [20] - **CNOOC**: A well-managed offshore oil and gas giant [20] - **Zhuoyue New Energy**: A leader in the domestic biodiesel sector focusing on SAF [20] Key Industry Research - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see continuous improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with profitability likely to recover due to policy and self-regulation measures [21][22] - The PTA industry is transitioning from "involution" competition to "high-quality development," with expectations for product price recovery [29][40] - The polyester bottle chip market is projected to stabilize with steady demand growth, despite recent price pressures [34][40]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is rapidly increasing due to the decarbonization efforts in the aviation industry, leading to a significant rise in SAF prices, with European SAF prices reaching $2300-2320 per ton and domestic prices at $2100-2300 per ton as of December 16, 2025, marking increases of approximately 25% and 24% respectively since the beginning of the year [1][3]. Group 1: SAF Price Trends and Demand Drivers - The SAF price has experienced fluctuations since 2025, initially declining due to delayed demand and capacity release, but rebounding strongly due to geopolitical conflicts affecting raw material prices and the implementation of regulatory policies in the EU and UK [1][3]. - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that with appropriate government support, SAF production will reach 0.06 million tons (79 million liters) by 2025, accounting for 2% of total fuel demand, with expectations of demand reaching 0.18 million tons (230 million liters) by 2030 and 3.5 million tons by 2050 [3][4]. Group 2: SAF Production Technologies - Currently, the dominant SAF production method is HEFA, with 11 approved production processes as of January 2025, but other technologies are gradually moving towards commercial application [2]. - The cost of SAF production methods is expected to decline significantly by 2050, with projections indicating a 67% reduction for Power-to-Liquid (PtL) technology, which may become a major long-term solution due to its superior emission reduction capabilities [2]. Group 3: China's SAF Industry Expansion - China's SAF industry is in a rapid expansion phase, with current production capacity at approximately 1.7 million tons per year, primarily using HEFA technology and waste cooking oil as feedstock [4]. - By 2027, an additional 5.5 million tons per year of capacity is expected to come online, potentially positioning China as a major global exporter of SAF, thereby supporting the international development of green energy [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies with mature HEFA technology and early capacity release are likely to benefit from rising demand and prices, with specific companies such as Haineng Energy, Pengyao Environmental Protection, Shangaohuan Energy, and Langkun Technology identified as potential investment opportunities [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The demand for SAF is rapidly increasing, driven by strong EU regulations and rising prices. As of December 16, 2025, European SAF prices reached $2300-$2320 per ton, a 25% increase since the beginning of the year, while domestic prices rose to $2100-$2300 per ton, up 24% [4][8]. - The HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) process currently dominates the market, but other technologies like PtL (Power-to-Liquid) show significant long-term cost reduction potential. McKinsey predicts cost reductions of 22% for HEFA, 32% for ATJ (Alcohol-to-Jet), 24% for FT (Fischer-Tropsch), and 67% for PtL from 2020 to 2050 [4][24]. - Global SAF blending policies are accelerating, with significant increases in production and consumption expected. IATA forecasts that by 2025, SAF production will reach 0.06 million tons, accounting for 2% of total fuel demand, and by 2050, global demand could reach 350 million tons [4][32]. - China's SAF industry is rapidly expanding, with an expected total capacity exceeding 10.65 million tons per year by 2027, positioning the country as a major global exporter [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Aviation Industry Decarbonization Drives SAF Demand - SAF prices are driven by supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of maintaining high levels in the future due to geopolitical factors and regulatory frameworks [8][11]. - The aviation sector's carbon emissions are significant, with a need for low-carbon fuel alternatives to meet decarbonization goals [12][15]. 2. Global SAF Blending Policies Accelerate Production and Consumption - The SAF industry is heavily influenced by policy drivers, with various countries implementing specific blending targets and incentives to support SAF adoption [32][33]. - The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation regulation mandates increasing SAF blending ratios, aiming for 2% by 2025 and 70% by 2050 [33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with established HEFA processes and early capacity releases are expected to benefit from rising demand and prices. Key companies to watch include HaiXin Energy, PengYao Environmental, ShanGao Environmental, and LangKun Technology [4][5].