Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5]. Core Views - The report highlights a stable growth in industrial electricity production, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% for the first nine months of the year [2][16]. - It emphasizes the government's ongoing support for the development of renewable energy, particularly in the green methanol sector, which is expected to benefit from various policy initiatives [4][18]. - The report notes that the overall electricity consumption for the first nine months reached 77,675 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of 4.6% year-on-year [3][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.24%, while the public utility index increased by 1.08% and the environmental index by 1.44% [1][15]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power saw a 2.00% increase, hydropower rose by 0.23%, and renewable energy generation increased by 0.55% [1][15]. Important Events - In September, the industrial electricity generation was 826.2 billion kWh, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, with daily average generation at 27.54 billion kWh [2][16]. - The report indicates a shift in growth rates among different energy sources, with thermal power declining by 5.4% and solar power increasing by 21.1% [2][16]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and regional players like Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profitability [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International: Outperform, last close at 5.26 CNY, market cap 61.1 billion CNY, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.49 CNY [9]. - Longyuan Power: Outperform, last close at 17.35 CNY, market cap 145.0 billion CNY, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.76 CNY [9]. - China Nuclear Power: Outperform, last close at 9.09 CNY, market cap 187.0 billion CNY, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.43 CNY [9].

Market Overview - The gas sector experienced a decline of 1.35% on October 28, with Jiufeng Energy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3988.22, down 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13430.1, down 0.44% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jiufeng Energy (code: 605090) saw a significant drop of 5.33%, closing at 32.16, with a trading volume of 148,800 shares and a transaction value of 484 million [2] - Other notable declines included ST Jinwan (down 4.02%), Shouhua Gas (down 3.72%), and Dazhong Public Utilities (down 3.55%) [2] - Conversely, Shengda Forestry (code: 002259) was one of the few gainers, increasing by 2.39% to close at 4.29 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The gas sector experienced a net outflow of 411 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 498 million [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that Guo New Energy had a net inflow of 19.01 million from main funds, while ST Jinwan had a net outflow of 2.75 million [3] - Retail investors showed a positive net inflow in several stocks, including ST Jinwan and Meino Energy, despite overall sector outflows [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 37.40 [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 5.18 billion in Q3, showing a year-over-year decline of 10.4% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 380 million, down 11.3% year-over-year but up 7.2% quarter-over-quarter. The lower net profit was attributed to typhoon impacts and maintenance costs affecting pre-tax profits by approximately RMB 97 million [4][5] - The LNG business demonstrated resilience despite a relaxed market supply and price pressure, with gross margins improving year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. The company expects to benefit from long-term contracts and rising LNG prices due to anticipated cold weather [5] - The LPG business faced significant short-term disruptions but is expected to recover quickly in Q4, with operational improvements in the dynamic dual-storage system between Dongguan and Guangzhou [6] - The specialty gas business is focusing on commercial aerospace needs, becoming a core supplier for Hainan commercial launches, which is expected to contribute to profit growth [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are RMB 22,047 million, RMB 21,877 million, RMB 23,029 million, and RMB 24,504 million respectively, with a year-over-year decline of 17.01% in 2025E but a growth of 6.41% in 2027E [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 1,684 million in 2024, RMB 1,553 million in 2025E, RMB 1,790 million in 2026E, and RMB 2,051 million in 2027E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7% over three years [8] - The company’s EPS is expected to be RMB 2.42 in 2024, RMB 2.23 in 2025E, RMB 2.58 in 2026E, and RMB 2.95 in 2027E [3][8] Valuation Adjustments - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reducing the net profit estimates by 10.3% for 2025E, 10.2% for 2026E, and 10.2% for 2027E, primarily due to lower LNG/LPG prices and asset disposal income [8] - The target price has been raised to RMB 37.4 from RMB 36.4, based on a revised valuation of 14.5x PE for 2026 [8]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 28 日 九丰能源（605090.SH） 极端天气及设施检修带来短期扰动，Q4 期待 LPG 业务 释放利润弹性 九丰能源发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度实现营业收入 156.08 亿元，同比 -8.45%；归母净利润 12.41 亿元，同比-19.13%。 ❑ 业绩受短期因素扰动，长期成长逻辑不改。公司前三季度实现营业收入 156.08 亿元，同比-8.45%；归母净利润 12.41 亿元，同比-19.13%；其中，3Q25 实 现营业收入 51.8 亿元，同比-10.39%；归母净利润 3.8 亿元，同比-11.29%。 ❑ LNG 业务展现较强韧性，极端天气+储罐检修影响 LPG 利润。在天然气市场 供给宽松，价格整体下行的背景下，公司 LNG 吨毛利同比、环比（上半年） 进一步提升，终端用户销量保持基本稳定，带动 LNG 毛利稳步增长。受台风 "桦加沙""博罗依"等极端天气影响，公司 LPG 运输船舶期末不能顺利进 港。同时，偶发性 LPG 船期滞后形成跨期销售，进而影响 LPG 销售毛利。 此外，公司于 5 月收购的华凯接收站在 Q3 主要处 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jiufeng Energy's stock price has dropped by 5.06%, currently trading at 32.25 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 22.422 billion CNY [1] - Jiufeng Energy, established on February 27, 2008, and listed on May 25, 2021, is primarily engaged in liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, and dimethyl ether (DME) [1] - The revenue composition of Jiufeng Energy includes: natural gas and operations 48.09%, liquefied petroleum gas 41.05%, other chemical products 7.49%, energy logistics and technical services 2.90%, special gases 0.46%, and others 0.01% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Xinyuan Fund has one fund heavily invested in Jiufeng Energy, specifically Xinyuan Industry Rotation A (005949), which held 57,500 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 2.73% of the fund's net value [2] - The estimated floating loss for Xinyuan Industry Rotation A today is approximately 98,900 CNY [2] - Xinyuan Industry Rotation A was established on May 31, 2018, with a current scale of 5.9272 million CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 11.64% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expanding its resource pool by planning to invest in a coal-to-gas project, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [4]. - The company's three main businesses are developing rapidly, and the synergy among them is significant, leading to increasing competitive barriers [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.241 billion yuan, down 19.13% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.154 billion yuan, a decline of 4.44% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 5.180 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.39%, and a net profit of 380 million yuan, down 11.29% year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - LNG operations are stable, with a domestic average ex-factory price of 4,222 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, down 13.94% year-on-year. Despite a decrease in LNG spot trading volume, terminal user sales remained stable [3]. - The LPG segment is expected to see increased volume due to the completion of maintenance at the Guangzhou Huakai receiving station and the end of extreme weather impacts [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to invest up to 3.455 billion yuan in a coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang, which is projected to produce 4 billion cubic meters of gas annually, with an expected annual profit of approximately 1.477 billion yuan and an internal rate of return of 8.2% [4]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.730 billion yuan, 1.989 billion yuan, and 2.271 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.49 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 3.27 yuan [4][6].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes integrating green development into the modern industrial system, accelerating market-oriented resource allocation, and addressing local government debt as a key task for the 14th Five-Year Plan [9][10] - The report highlights significant growth in the environmental sector, particularly in clean energy, recycling resources, and waste management, driven by policy support and market reforms [12][14] Policy Tracking - The Fourth Plenary Session outlines the importance of green transformation as a systemic project across economic and social development, with specific measures to achieve carbon peak and neutrality goals [9][10] - Key initiatives include accelerating the construction of a dual control system for carbon emissions, promoting green low-carbon energy transformation, and enhancing the circular economy [10][11] Industry Trends - The environmental protection sector is witnessing a surge in new energy sanitation vehicle sales, with a year-on-year increase of 63.18% and a penetration rate rise of 6.29 percentage points to 17.40% [6][9] - The report notes improvements in the profitability of biodiesel production, with stable prices for waste cooking oil and rising net profits [12][14] Investment Recommendations - Focus on clean energy operations, particularly in green electricity and green hydrogen, with specific companies recommended for investment [12][14] - In the recycling sector, companies involved in biofuels and recycled plastics are highlighted as key investment opportunities [12][14] - The report suggests that market-oriented pricing reforms in waste and water management will enhance cash flow stability and profitability for companies in these sectors [13][14] Company Tracking - Longjing Environmental plans to raise 2 billion yuan through a private placement to enhance its capital structure and support growth in green electricity and energy storage [12][14] - The report indicates that companies in the solid waste sector are experiencing improved cash flow and dividend payouts, with notable increases in free cash flow and dividend ratios [19][20]

Core Insights - JiuFeng Energy (605090.SH) reported its Q3 2025 results, revealing that as of October 27, 2025, 13 institutional investors held a total of 250 million shares, representing 36.89% of the company's total equity [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively held 36.87% of the shares, with a decrease of 1.52 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Institutional Holdings - Among public funds, only one fund, Southern Military Industry Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed A, increased its holdings, with an increase ratio of 0.52% [2] - Seven new public funds disclosed their holdings in JiuFeng Energy this quarter, including Silver Hua Rui and Flexible Allocation Mixed A, Morgan Stanley Progressive Preferred Stock, and others [2] - A total of 168 public funds did not disclose their holdings this quarter, including Tianhong Multi-Asset Income Bond A and others [2] Social Security Fund - One new social security fund, the National Social Security Fund 103 Portfolio, disclosed its holdings in JiuFeng Energy this quarter [2]

Group 1 - On October 28, a total of 3 companies had their restricted shares unlocked, with a total unlock volume of 102 million shares, valued at 4.665 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [1] - The companies involved in the unlock were Qilin Xinan, Hechuan Technology, and Jiufeng Energy, with unlock share counts of 61.984 million, 40.1373 million, and 659 shares respectively [1] - In terms of unlock market value, Qilin Xinan had 3.028 billion yuan, Hechuan Technology had 1.637 billion yuan, and Jiufeng Energy had 22,400 yuan [1] Group 2 - The proportion of unlocked shares relative to total share capital was 60.72% for Qilin Xinan, 26.58% for Hechuan Technology, and 0.0% for Jiufeng Energy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2025, attributed to various operational challenges and market conditions, while also outlining a positive outlook for the fourth quarter. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 518,034.73 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.39% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 38,032.77 million yuan, down 11.29% year-on-year [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 34,345.50 million yuan, reflecting an 18.26% year-on-year decline [2] Key Factors Affecting Performance - The LNG business showed resilience despite a "supply easing and price pressure" environment, with further improvement in gross profit per ton [3][8] - The LPG business improved in sales scale and operational efficiency, but faced challenges due to extreme weather events and maintenance issues, impacting pre-tax profit by approximately 82 million yuan [3][8] - Planned repairs and settlement costs for LPG vessels reduced service income and increased operational costs, affecting pre-tax profit by about 15 million yuan [3][8] - The company incurred costs related to the development of core projects, including the Xinjiang coal-to-natural gas project, impacting current profits [4][9] - Share-based payment costs from equity incentive plans and convertible bond interest expenses totaled 32.32 million yuan, affecting profits [4][9] Outlook for Q4 2025 - The company expects improved profitability in the LNG business due to better resource supply alignment and recovering domestic natural gas prices [5][12] - The completion of maintenance at the Guangzhou Huakai receiving station is anticipated to boost LPG sales in Q4, with a quick recovery in profitability expected [5][12] - The resumption of LPG vessel services is projected to restore profitability in energy logistics services [5][12] - The company aims to support commercial aerospace needs and expedite key project developments to ensure long-term growth [6][13]