- The report discusses a "Volume Timing Signal" model, which provides cautious signals for major broad-based indices as of May 9, 2025[23][24] - The "HS300 Upward Stock Ratio Sentiment Indicator" is introduced, calculated as the proportion of HS300 constituent stocks with positive returns over the past N days. This indicator is noted for capturing upward opportunities but has limitations in avoiding downside risks[24][25] - The "Momentum Sentiment Indicator" is derived by smoothing the upward stock ratio indicator over two different time windows (N1=50, N2=35). A bullish signal is generated when the short-term line exceeds the long-term line, and vice versa[27] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" is based on the eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). The indicator assigns values (-1, 0, 1) based on the number of moving averages above or below the current price. A bullish signal is triggered when the price exceeds more than five moving averages[31][32] Backtesting Results of Models - Volume Timing Signal: All major indices (e.g., HS300, CSI500, CSI1000) are in a "cautious" state as of May 9, 2025[23][24] - HS300 Upward Stock Ratio Sentiment Indicator: The upward stock ratio is approximately 53% for the past week[25] - Momentum Sentiment Indicator: Both the fast and slow lines are trending downward, with the fast line falling below the slow line, indicating a cautious outlook[27] - Moving Average Sentiment Indicator: HS300 is currently in a non-bullish sentiment zone[37]

Core Viewpoint - The IVD industry is experiencing a significant downturn in revenue and profits, with over 70% of companies reporting a year-on-year decline in revenue and more than half facing losses or drastically reduced profits [2][5]. Revenue and Profit Trends - In Q1 2025, major IVD companies such as Mindray Medical, Dian Diagnostics, and RunDa Medical reported substantial declines in both revenue and net profit, with Mindray's revenue at 8.237 billion yuan (down 12.12%) and net profit at 2.629 billion yuan (down 16.81%) [2][4]. - Among 60 IVD companies analyzed, 16 reported revenue growth, with 8 achieving both revenue and net profit growth [2]. Market Challenges - The IVD sector is facing multiple challenges, including a slowdown in the conventional medical testing market, stricter cost control policies in healthcare, and the impact of centralized procurement policies [5][6]. - The anticipated centralized procurement in 28 provinces is expected to further pressure IVD companies, particularly in the high-volume chemical luminescence market [6]. Company Strategies and Innovations - Some companies are adapting by focusing on niche markets and innovative product offerings, such as New Industry and Sansure Bio, which reported revenue growth of 10.12% and 21.62% respectively in Q1 2025 [9]. - Companies are also exploring international markets, with Mindray's overseas revenue reaching 16.43 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 44.75% of total revenue [9][10]. Technological Advancements - The IVD industry is witnessing a shift towards digitalization and AI integration, with partnerships like that of BGI and Dian Diagnostics aiming to enhance diagnostic efficiency and precision [10][11]. - The emergence of AI technologies is reshaping the IVD landscape, although challenges remain in data integration and commercialization [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [2][9]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in performance amidst geopolitical risks, with steady growth in global sequencing installations. The core sequencing business is experiencing robust growth, supported by domestic market recovery and accelerated overseas expansion [2][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3.01 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.48%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -601 million yuan, a slight improvement of 1.10% year-on-year [3][6]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantage as a domestic leader in sequencing instruments, with a global market share of approximately 7.1% based on revenue and 28.2% based on new installations [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 3.61 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 20%. The net profit is expected to improve significantly, reaching -177 million yuan, a 70% year-on-year increase [2][7]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 455 million yuan, a decline of 14.26% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -133 million yuan, an increase of 33.67% year-on-year [3][6]. Market Position - The company has accelerated its global expansion, with nearly 900 overseas marketing personnel and a significant increase in installed sequencing machines, totaling over 4,500 units globally by the end of 2024 [6]. - The domestic market share for newly installed instruments reached approximately 63.8%, with revenue market share increasing to 39% [6]. Cost and Efficiency - The report notes a decrease in sales expense ratio to 25.42% and a slight increase in management expense ratio to 19.98%. The R&D expense ratio decreased to 24.77%, indicating improved operational efficiency [6]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 55.51%, a decrease of 3.96 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from innovative products and global channel development, with projected revenues of 4.5 billion yuan in 2026 and 5.6 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 25% and 24% respectively [2][6]. - The net profit is anticipated to turn positive by 2026, reaching 182 million yuan by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround from previous losses [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Viewpoints - The company has shown resilience in performance despite geopolitical risks, with steady growth in global sequencing installations [1]. - The core sequencing business is experiencing robust growth, with a significant increase in installed machines and market share, particularly in the domestic market [6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic sequencing market, benefiting from the ongoing trend of domestic substitution as competitors face challenges [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -601 million yuan, a slight improvement of 1.10% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 14.26% year-on-year, with a net profit of -133 million yuan, reflecting a 33.67% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 3.607 billion yuan, 4.500 billion yuan, and 5.597 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 20%, 25%, and 24% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company achieved a historical high in new sales installations, with nearly 1,270 new machines sold in 2024, representing a 48.59% increase year-on-year [6]. - The global market share is approximately 7.1% based on revenue, and 28.2% based on new installations, indicating strong competitive positioning [6]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence with a marketing team of nearly 900 people, enhancing local support services to accelerate product adoption [6]. Cost and Efficiency Metrics - The company’s sales expense ratio for 2024 was 25.42%, a decrease of 3.16 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio increased by 1.83 percentage points to 19.98% [6]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 55.51%, down 3.96 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from innovative product launches and global channel development, despite potential macroeconomic impacts on conventional business growth [6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is -177 million yuan, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years, reaching 182 million yuan by 2027 [6].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.013 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.48% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -601 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.10% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 14.26% year-on-year, amounting to 455 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.143 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 61.64% [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 55.51%, down 3.96 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The net profit margin was -20.22%, showing a slight improvement of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The core sequencing business generated 2.348 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 2.47% [3] - The company sold nearly 1,270 new sequencing instruments in 2024, marking a 48.59% increase year-on-year [3] - The laboratory automation segment achieved a revenue of 209 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 36.69% after excluding pandemic-related revenues [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a global market share of approximately 7.1% in revenue terms and 28.2% in terms of new sales installations [3] - The domestic market share for new instrument installations reached about 63.8%, with revenue market share increasing to 39% [3] - The company is accelerating its global expansion with nearly 900 overseas marketing personnel [3] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 3.607 billion, 4.500 billion, and 5.597 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 25%, and 24% respectively [5] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is -177 million yuan, with a significant turnaround expected by 2027, reaching 182 million yuan [5] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic sequencing instrument provider, with potential for further market share growth due to ongoing product innovations and geopolitical factors [5]

事件：公司发布2024年年度报告及2025年一季度报告。2024年实现营业收入30.13亿元（+3.48%），归 母净利润-6.01亿元，扣非净利润-6.53亿元，经营性现金流-7.74亿元。2024Q4实现营业收入11.43亿元 （+61.64%），归母净利润-1.37亿元，扣非净利润-1.55亿元。2025Q1实现营业收入4.55亿元 （-14.26%），归母净利润-1.33亿元，扣非净利润-1.45亿元，经营性现金流-0.68亿元。 测序仪装机进展顺利，国内份额显著提升。1）2024年：公司核心业务实现显著突破。分业务来看，① 基因测序仪：实现收入23.48亿元（+2.47%），其中仪器设备实现收入9.60亿元（+6.92%），全年新增 销售装机量近1,270台（+48.59%），国内新增销售超1，000台（占新增销售装机口径份额63.8%），试 剂耗材实现收入13.73亿元（+1.43%），DNBSEQ-T7/G99相关试剂收入同比增长23.23%、63.53%；② 实验室自动化：实现收入2.09亿元（+36.69%，剔除突发公卫相关基数），全年新增装机超500台，已逐 步消化突发公卫事件相关业务影响 ...

Group 1: 弘亚数控 - In Q1 2025, domestic sales accounted for approximately two-thirds of total revenue, showing a slight year-on-year decline, while overseas sales experienced a certain degree of growth [1] - The increase in foreign exhibitors at the March exhibition indicates potential for new overseas customer orders, which may require a longer lead time [1] - The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the market this year, believing that continuous industry growth will provide development space [1] Group 2: 华大智造 - Revenue decline in Q1 2025 was primarily due to seasonal fluctuations and market uncertainties, with expectations for revenue from platform replacement orders in Q2 [2] - Increased competition has led to a decrease in average selling prices of core products, impacting gross margins; the company is implementing measures such as domestic material substitution to improve margins [2] - The company plans to continue cost reduction and efficiency improvement initiatives, with significant reductions in expense ratios expected [2] Group 3: 同兴科技 - The sodium-ion battery cathode materials utilize a poly-anion route, offering advantages such as low cost, low temperature, and high safety, mainly applied in large-scale energy storage and two-wheeled vehicles [3] - The third-generation NFPP has completed pilot-scale experiments, demonstrating high specific capacity and long cycle stability, and has been used in large-scale commercial energy storage projects [3] - The company is optimistic about its carbon capture business and has established a CCUS division to advance multiple projects and technological collaborations [3]

Group 1: 华大智造 (BGI Genomics) - Revenue decline in Q1 2025 attributed to seasonal fluctuations and market uncertainties, with expectations for revenue recovery in Q2 from platform replacement orders [1] - Increased competition leading to a decline in average selling prices of core products, impacting gross margins; the company is implementing measures such as domestic material substitution and optimizing revenue structure to enhance gross margins [1] - Anticipated revenue growth in Q4 2024, but still facing losses due to promotional discounts, increased new business contributions, and expense provisions [1] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with significant reductions in expense ratios expected [1] - The impact of US tariffs on gross margins is noted, with low overseas procurement ratios and some reliance on imported components; domestic substitution efforts are ongoing [1] - Plans to stock up in advance to mitigate short-term impacts and establish overseas factories for reagent supply [1] - The company has received 750 intentions for switching from 3,000 existing Illumina instruments, offering high-performance alternatives [1] - AI technology is being leveraged to optimize enzymes for sequencing speed and quality, alongside developing energy-efficient transportation methods [1] - The overseas commercialization strategy is tailored to local markets, focusing on mature markets in Europe and the US, while also paying attention to Asia-Pacific and emerging markets [1] - Domestic advancements in NIPT upgrades, infectious disease testing, tumor early screening, rare disease detection, and innovation in the research field are ongoing [1] Group 2: 微芯生物 (Microchip Biotech) - Introduction of sodium siglitazone for the treatment of fatty liver or MASH, already approved for type 2 diabetes and included in medical insurance, showing multiple benefits such as improved insulin resistance and liver fat reduction [2] - Ongoing Phase III clinical trial for the combination of sidarubicin with sintilimab and bevacizumab for advanced colorectal cancer, with 200 out of 430 planned cases enrolled as of April 3, 2025 [2] - Several projects including CS23546, CS231295, and others are in Phase I and II clinical stages, with CS23546 having completed four dose escalation groups [2] - Business development (BD) is a key focus, with efforts to enrich multi-ethnic drug data for future BD initiatives [2] - The company is leveraging its subsidiary's advantages in large molecule drug development to explore new drug forms like DC, with relevant drugs having completed PCC development [2] Group 3: 南芯科技 (Nanchip Technology) - Anticipated 179% growth in automotive business in 2024, contributing over 3% to revenue, with continued rapid growth expected in 2025 across four key areas: body control, intelligent driving, smart cockpit, and onboard charging [3] - R&D expense ratio is 17.01%, expected to remain similar in 2025; acquisition of Shengsheng Micro will enhance business and supply chain capabilities [3] - Industrial applications include energy storage, drones, and battery systems, with multiple new products set to launch in 2024 and future expansions into IPower, industrial automation, and robotics [3] - The wired charging business maintains a leading position, with a trend towards integration and systematization, expecting significant breakthroughs in 2024 and even greater market achievements in 2025 [3] - The company is managing production capacity effectively in response to tight supply at some wafer and packaging factories, with stable pricing for wafer procurement and packaging testing [3] - Introduction of automotive-grade high-speed CN/CNFD transceiver product SC25042Q, with plans for more power and drive products in the future [3] - The company is pursuing a dual strategy to expand sales channels by targeting both large customers and distributors [3] - Following the acquisition of Shengsheng Micro, a transaction payment of 700 million was made in Q1, resulting in goodwill [3]

Group 1: 华大智造 - 华大智造's Q1 2025 revenue decline is primarily due to seasonal fluctuations and market uncertainties, with expectations for revenue from platform replacement orders in Q2 [1] - Increased industry competition has led to a decline in average selling prices of core products, impacting gross margins; the company is implementing measures such as domestic material substitution and optimizing revenue structure to improve gross margins [1] - Revenue is expected to increase in Q4 2024, but losses are anticipated due to promotional discounts, increased new business contributions, and expense provisions, with cost logic still applicable due to scale effects [1] - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, optimizing budget management, organizational structure, and R&D projects, with significant reductions in expense ratios expected [1] - U.S. tariffs are affecting gross margins, with low overseas procurement ratios and reliance on imported components; domestic substitution is ongoing [1] - The company is preparing inventory to mitigate short-term impacts and is planning overseas factories for reagent supply, with limited effects from countermeasures [1] - There are 3,000 existing Illumina instruments, with 750 switch intentions received for high-performance alternatives provided by the company [1] - In reagent consumables, AI technology is being leveraged to optimize enzymes, enhancing sequencing speed and quality, and developing energy-efficient transportation methods [1] - The overseas commercialization strategy is tailored to local markets, focusing on mature markets in Europe and the U.S., while also paying attention to Asia-Pacific and emerging markets [1] - Domestically, the company is advancing NIPT upgrades, infectious disease testing, cancer early screening, rare disease detection, and innovations in the research field [1] Group 2: ST华通 - ST华通 is focusing on evergreen game categories such as SLG and match-3 games, emphasizing innovation and scalability [2] - The company believes that the future trend for SLG games is promising due to their ease of operation and strong user engagement, although successful teams are limited [2] - 盛趣游戏 plans to return to traditional advantages through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, exploring IP potential and seeking overseas markets [2] - Regarding the "Apple tax," the company sees the breaking of Apple payment restrictions as beneficial, though the short-term impact is expected to be minimal [2] - The company is providing competitive bonuses for team incentives, with the business team in a positive cycle [2] - ST华通 is optimistic about the long-term development of AI games, hosting innovation competitions while remaining cautious in the short term [2] - The company aims to leverage classic IP potential, relying on core users to launch new works [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024 despite external pressures, while also showing potential for growth in new business segments and maintaining a stable performance in its core sequencing instrument business [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.013 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.48% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -601 million yuan, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was -653 million yuan [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was -774 million yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 3.73% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 455 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 14.26%, with a net profit of -133 million yuan, which is a 33.67% reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1]. Business Segments - The sequencing instrument business generated revenue of 2.348 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 2.47% [2]. - The laboratory automation business achieved revenue of 209 million yuan, with a growth of 36.69% when excluding pandemic-related income [2]. - New business revenue reached 400 million yuan, with a growth of 57.05% when excluding pandemic-related income, indicating a positive trend in diversifying revenue sources [2]. Profitability and Investment - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 55.51%, a decrease of 3.96 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to product mix adjustments [2]. - The company increased its sales and R&D expenditures, with sales expense ratio at 25.42% and R&D expense ratio at 24.77%, suggesting a focus on expanding its market presence and enhancing product offerings [2]. Market Performance - In 2024, the revenue from sequencing consumables was 1.373 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 1.43%, while the revenue from sequencing equipment was 960 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.92% [3]. - The company achieved a record high of nearly 1,270 new sequencing instrument installations in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 48.59% [3]. - Domestic revenue for sequencing instruments was 1.607 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 11.37%, with expectations of gaining market share due to the exclusion of a competitor from the market [3]. - Revenue from the Americas was 172 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 8.28%, demonstrating resilience despite regulatory challenges [3]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 3.689 billion yuan, 4.500 billion yuan, and 5.324 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of 22.4%, 22.0%, and 18.3% respectively [4]. - Expected net profits for the same period are projected to be -85 million yuan, 105 million yuan, and 263 million yuan, with significant growth rates of 85.8%, 223.1%, and 149.6% respectively [4].